Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - The overall view is that there is no basis for a bull market due to a bumper harvest in South America, but the downside is limited as demand is expected to improve. The market will generally fluctuate with an upward bias, in the range of 1000 - 1200 cents per bushel [5]. - The bearish factors include the possible weakening of the Trump administration's support for the biodiesel blending policy after China purchases US soybeans, Brazil's entry into the harvesting stage, and the continued increase in Brazil's planting area in the 2025/26 season [5]. - The bullish factors are the expected purchase of 12 million tons of US soybeans by China before February 2026 and over 25 million tons per year in the next three years, the initial signs of drought in southern Argentina, and the possibility of a La Nina weather leading to a reduction in South American soybean production [5]. Summary by Directory Market Price - This week, the price of US soybeans closed down in a fluctuating manner. The active contract of US soybeans closed at 1057.75 cents per bushel, down 4.75 cents per bushel. After the USDA released a bearish January supply - demand report, the price briefly fell and then rebounded. The biodiesel blending policy may be announced in March, slightly improving the demand outlook for beans. Next week's key points to watch are China's procurement rhythm, the weather in South American main producing areas, and the progress of the biodiesel policy [7]. - This week, the price of US soybean meal closed at $290 per short ton, down $13.7 per short ton. The January supply - demand report was bearish, putting pressure on beans overall. The biodiesel blending policy is expected to be announced in March, causing the price of soybean oil to strengthen. The oil - meal ratio trading led to a significant decline in the price of meal [10]. - This week, the price of US soybean oil rebounded, closing at 52.61 cents per pound, up 2.92 cents per pound. The biodiesel blending policy is expected in March, supporting the oil and fat market. The strengthening of international crude oil prices has improved the consumption outlook for oil and fat [13]. - As of January 2, the price of soybeans in the US Gulf was $11.19 per bushel, down $0.11 [15]. - As of January 2, the price of soybeans in Iowa was $9.62 per bushel, down $0.28 week - on - week [17]. - On January 16, the spot price in Mato Grosso, Brazil, fell by 0.96 to 103.56 reais per bag [19]. - As of January 16, the spot price at Brazilian ports fell by 3.19 to 131.45 reais per bag [21]. Supply Factors - In Brazil, the southern region will have little precipitation in the next two weeks, the eastern region will have more, and the central - western region will be basically normal. The overall precipitation in the main producing areas of Brazil in the next two weeks will be close to normal. Mato Grosso in Brazil will be basically normal in the next two weeks, while Parana and Rio Grande do Sul will have less precipitation [24][28][31]. - The main producing areas of Argentina will have less precipitation in the next two weeks, and there will be basically no rain in the core producing areas in the next week [38][40]. Demand Factors - As of January 9, the US soybean crushing profit was $2.12 per bushel, compared with $2.33 last week [43]. - In the week ending January 9, the weekly export volume of US soybeans was 1.6373 million tons, compared with 1.1126 million tons last week. The weekly export inspection and quarantine volume was 1.5297 million tons, compared with 0.9841 million tons last week. The net sales volume this year was 2.0619 million tons, compared with 0.8779 million tons last week. The sales volume for the next year was 10,000 tons, compared with 0 tons last week. The quantity shipped to China was 0.9011 million tons, compared with 0.397 million tons last week [45][47][49]. Other Factors - The latest value of the ENSO (NINO3.4 anomaly index) is - 1.106, remaining in the La Nina range [56]. - The cost of soybeans in Brazil is expected to rise next year, and the planting costs of soybeans in Brazil and the US are expected to rise slightly. The planting cost of US soybeans continues to increase, while the cost of Brazilian soybeans has decreased year - on - year [58][60][62]. - As of January 13, the net long position of soybeans in CFTC was 53,000 lots, compared with 95,900 lots last week. The net short position of soybean oil was 49,300 lots, compared with 73,000 lots last week. The net short position of soybean meal was 17,100 lots, compared with 20,700 lots last week [64][66][68].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Buy Rating**: Soybean, Soybean Meal, Soybean Oil, Palm Oil, Corn, and Live Hogs are rated as "★★★" [1] - **Neutral Rating**: Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil are rated as "★☆☆" [1] - **Sell Rating**: Eggs are rated as "★☆☆" [1] Core Views - The report provides a comprehensive analysis of various agricultural products, including soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, corn, live hogs, and eggs. It offers insights into their current market conditions, supply and demand dynamics, and price trends, and provides corresponding investment strategies and suggestions [2][3][4] Summary by Category Soybean - The spot price of domestic soybeans showed an upward trend last week. Policy - based auction sales had high premiums and high transaction rates. The futures contract saw profit - taking at high positions. Supply of high - protein soybeans is tight, and the market features high - quality products commanding high prices. However, price increases have dampened demand. Policy is increasing supply. Short - term focus should be on policies and the spot market [2] Soybean & Soybean Meal - Attention should be paid to the USDA's January supply - demand report. The upside space for US soybeans is limited, and South American weather is favorable, with a 68% probability of ENSO neutrality in Q1. If South American weather remains stable, soybean meal prices will follow US soybeans and fluctuate weakly [3] Soybean Oil & Palm Oil - Malaysia's January MPOB report showed a slight decline in production and improved demand, but inventory increased to the second - highest level since 2007. After the report, palm oil prices rose due to the game between Malaysia's weak supply - demand situation and Indonesia's policy of raising export taxes and confiscating illegal plantations [4] Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil - The focus this week is on the Canadian Prime Minister's visit to China. The market expects Sino - Canadian relations to ease, which may put pressure on rapeseed products. If relations do not improve, prices may rebound due to low domestic inventories. As of January 9, coastal oil mills' rapeseed inventory increased to 60,000 tons [6] Corn - Corn futures continued to rise, with the main contract C20603 up 1.19%. Northeast spot prices were stable with an upward bias, and some Shandong deep - processing enterprises raised purchase prices. Overall inventory is low, and the selling progress is fast. The short - term Dalian corn futures will fluctuate widely [7] Live Hogs - The live hog market remained volatile. Prices of live hogs and piglets rebounded, and industry profits approached the break - even point. The reduction of sows slowed down. Second - fattening is still taking place, supporting short - term prices. However, the supply pressure before the Spring Festival is high, and the upside space is limited. In the medium - to - long - term, there is a high probability of a second bottom in H1 next year [8] Eggs - The egg futures market declined slightly on Monday with an increase of 25,000 lots in open interest. Spot prices strengthened after New Year's Day. Low chick replenishment from August to December will lead to a decline in laying hens in H1 2026. With pre - Spring Festival demand, egg prices are expected to rise [9]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall view of US soybeans is that with a bumper harvest in South America, there is no basis for a bull market; however, demand is expected to improve, limiting the downside. The market is generally expected to be volatile and slightly bullish, with a price range of 1000 - 1200 cents per bushel [5]. - The bearish factors include the potential weakening of the Trump administration's support for the biodiesel addition policy after China purchases US soybeans, Brazil's entry into the harvesting stage, and the continued increase in Brazil's planting area in the 2025/26 season [5]. - The bullish factors are the expected purchase of 12 million tons of US soybeans by China before February 2026 and over 25 million tons per year for the next three years, the initial signs of drought in central - eastern Brazil and southern Argentina, and the possibility of La Nina weather causing a reduction in South American soybean production [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Price - **US Soybeans**: This week, the active contract of US soybeans closed at 1062.5 cents per bushel, up 13 cents per bushel. The rebound was due to the continued progress of Chinese procurement and the low precipitation in central and eastern Brazil. Next week, attention should be paid to China's procurement rhythm, South American main - producing area weather conditions, and biodiesel policy progress [7]. - **US Soybean Meal**: This week, the price of US soybean meal closed at $303.7 per short ton, up $12.7 per short ton. The rebound was supported by the continued progress of Chinese procurement and the drought signs in central and eastern Brazil [10]. - **US Soybean Oil**: This week, US soybean oil fluctuated and rose slightly, closing at 49.69 cents per pound, up 0.37 cents per pound. The stable oil market and lack of trading themes led it to follow the US soybean rebound [14]. - **Regional Prices**: As of January 2, the price of soybeans in the US Gulf was $11.19 per bushel, down $0.11; the price of soybeans in Iowa was $9.62 per bushel, down $0.28 per week. On January 9, the spot price in Mato Grosso, Brazil, dropped 11.8 to 104.52 reais per bag. As of January 7, the spot price at Brazilian ports dropped 7.5 to 134.64 reais per bag [16][18][20][22]. Supply Factors - In Brazil, the southern region is expected to have more precipitation in the next two weeks, while the central and eastern producing areas will have less. The main producing areas in Brazil are expected to have slightly less precipitation in the next two weeks, and Mato Grosso will have less precipitation after the middle of this month. Parana and Rio Grande do Sul in Brazil are expected to have more precipitation in the next two weeks [25][30][33]. - In Argentina, the main producing areas are expected to have slightly less precipitation in the next two weeks, and the central and southern regions will have less precipitation in the next week [40][42]. Demand Factors - As of December 12, the US soybean crushing profit was $2.33 per bushel, down from $2.45 last week [45]. - In the week of January 2, the weekly export volume of US soybeans was 1.1126 million tons, down from 1.2199 million tons last week; the weekly export inspection and quarantine volume was 0.9805 million tons, up from 0.7736 million tons last week; the net sales for this year were 0.8779 million tons, down from 1.1777 million tons last week; the sales for the next year were 0 tons, the same as last week; the quantity shipped to China was 0.397 million tons, up from 0.135 million tons last week [47][49][51][53][55]. Other Factors - The latest value of the ENSO (NINO3.4 anomaly index) is - 1.134, remaining in the La Nina range [58]. - The cost of soybean production in Brazil and the US is expected to rise slightly. The cost of soybean production in the US continues to increase, while the cost in Brazil has decreased year - on - year [60][62][64]. - As of January 6, the net long position of soybeans in CFTC was 95,900 lots, down from 117,000 lots last week; the net short position of soybean oil was 73,000 lots, down from 80,700 lots last week; the net short position of soybean meal was 20,700 lots, up from 10,200 lots last week [66][68][70].

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings No investment ratings for the industries are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views - **Palm Oil**: Affected by mixed fundamentals, the futures price will continue to fluctuate within a range. In the domestic market, the Dalian palm oil futures market maintains a volatile consolidation trend, with short - term support above 8,500 yuan. Attention should be paid to whether it can break through the moving - average resistance and whether Malaysian palm oil can firmly stand above 4,000 ringgit [1]. - **Soybean Oil**: Uncertainty in the US biodiesel policy makes CBOT soybean oil vulnerable to related varieties. Although China's purchase of US soybeans boosts CBOT soybean prices, the abundant global soybean supply still weighs on it. In the domestic market, the Spring Festival stocking and reduced soybean imports are positive, but the CBOT soybean price may still correct, and the May contract of Dalian soybean oil faces pressure around 7,950 - 8,000 yuan [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: With limited domestic available spot, the market is watching whether COFCO will start production on the 10th. Supported by tight spot supply, the short - term downside is limited, and the overall trend is wide - range volatile adjustment [1]. - **Jujube**: The spot market price is weakly stable, with increased customer inquiries but no significant improvement in transactions. Affected by the warming commodity market sentiment, the futures price rebounds, and the basis narrows. The new - season warehouse receipt generation accelerates. Short - term fundamentals lack obvious drivers, and the futures price will fluctuate and consolidate [2]. - **Corn**: In the short term, the corn market is supported by farmers' reluctance to sell and downstream replenishment needs, but selling pressure expectations and policy - supplemented supply limit the upside. Attention should be paid to subsequent policy releases and farmers' selling attitudes [5]. - **Sugar**: Brazil's sugar - cane crushing is nearing the end, and the market focus shifts to the Northern Hemisphere. India's sugar production has increased year - on - year, while Thailand's is still down. The international sugar price is expected to fluctuate between 14.5 - 15.5 cents per pound. In the domestic market, the Spring Festival stocking demand is strong, but the peak - season supply and cautious market sentiment limit the upside, and the price is expected to fluctuate at a low level [8][9]. - **Apple**: With the approaching Spring Festival stocking season, the market is more active, with good - quality apples in short supply and high prices. However, the high price may suppress consumption, and other fruits compete with apples. The futures price has rebounded, and attention should be paid to the inventory - reduction progress [13]. - **Cotton**: ICE cotton futures are under pressure from falling oil prices and a stronger US dollar. In the US, the cotton - growing area is experiencing rising temperatures and reduced precipitation. The domestic cotton price is supported by strong expectations of reduced planting in Xinjiang and downstream replenishment, but is restricted by low foreign cotton costs and the off - season demand. In the short term, the cotton price will maintain a bullish trend, but there is a risk of correction after continuous price increases [16]. - **Egg**: Based on previous chick - sales data, the laying - hen inventory may decrease in January, alleviating supply pressure. After the continuous increase in egg prices, the market resists high - priced goods. The current market circulation is smooth, and inventories are low. With the approaching traditional consumption peak, the market sentiment is bullish, but the oversupply situation may limit the upside, and the main contract is expected to fluctuate at a low level [18]. - **Pig**: The spot price has returned to a volatile pattern. After the New Year's Day, market demand has declined significantly. Although the northern pig supply has decreased, high prices have dampened slaughterhouse procurement enthusiasm, and the southern demand has also weakened. Some second - fattening operations are still taking place, but overall enthusiasm is low. The market expects high consumption before the Spring Festival, but the supply in January is abundant, and the futures price is affected by market sentiment, with limited upside potential [19]. - **Meal**: The external market is under pressure from the global supply - demand situation, and the market awaits the USDA supply - demand report. In the domestic market, the supply of soybeans and meals is currently abundant, but the expected future shortage supports the 3 - 5 spread and basis. The first - quarter soybean arrival is expected to be low, but there is uncertainty in auctions and arrivals. The downside of soybean meal is limited, and the short - term market sentiment is positive, with the futures price fluctuating strongly [21]. 3. Summary by Category 3.1. Price and Spread - **Futures and Spot Prices**: - **Palm Oil**: On January 7, the spot price in Guangdong was 8,570 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the futures price of P2605 was 8,562 yuan/ton, up 62 yuan or 0.73% [1]. - **Soybean Oil**: The spot price in Jiangsu was 8,460 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the futures price of Y2605 was 7,958 yuan/ton, up 46 yuan or 0.58% [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The spot price in Jiangsu was 9,900 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the futures price of OI2605 was 9,606 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan or 0.38% [1]. - **Jujube**: The futures prices of jujube 2605, 2607, and 2609 all increased, with the 2605 contract rising 175 yuan or 1.95% to 9,150 yuan/ton [2]. - **Corn**: The futures price of corn 2603 was 2,248 yuan/ton, up 26 yuan or 1.17%, and the basis was 72 yuan, down 31 yuan or 30.10% [5]. - **Sugar**: The futures price of sugar 2605 was 5,281 yuan/ton, up 22 yuan or 0.42% [8]. - **Apple**: The futures price of the apple 2605 contract was 8,583 yuan/ton, down 31 yuan or 0.32% [10]. - **Cotton**: The futures price of cotton 2605 was 15,035 yuan/ton, up 180 yuan or 1.21% [16]. - **Egg**: The futures price of the egg 03 contract was 3,011 yuan/500KG, up 11 yuan or 0.37% [18]. - **Pig**: The futures price of the pig 2605 contract was 12,260 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan or 0.04% [19]. - **Meal**: The futures price of soybean meal M2605 was 2,811 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan or 1.26%, and the futures price of rapeseed meal RM2605 was 2,419 yuan/ton, up 29 yuan or 1.21% [21]. - **Spreads**: - **Three - oil Inter - period Spread**: The 05 - 09 spread of the three - oil was 150 yuan, up 12 yuan or 8.70% [1]. - **Palm Oil Inter - period Spread**: The 05 - 09 spread was 110 yuan, down 8 yuan or - 6.78% [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil Inter - period Spread**: The 05 - 09 spread was 14 yuan, down 38 yuan or - 73.08% [1]. - **Soybean - Palm Oil Spread**: The spot spread was - 110 yuan (unchanged), and the 2605 spread was - 604 yuan, down 16 yuan or - 2.72% [1]. - **Rapeseed - Soybean Oil Spread**: The spot spread was 1,440 yuan (unchanged), and the 2605 spread was 1,137 yuan, down 81 yuan or - 6.65% [1]. - **Jujube 5 - 7 Spread**: It was - 45 yuan, up 25 yuan or 35.71% [2]. - **Jujube 5 - 9 Spread**: It was - 180 yuan, up 40 yuan or 18.18% [2]. - **Corn 3 - 7 Spread**: It was - 36 yuan, up 10 yuan or 21.74% [5]. - **Sugar 5 - 9 Spread**: It was - 12 yuan, up 4 yuan or 25.00% [8]. - **Apple 5 - 10 Spread**: It was 1,109 yuan, up 26 yuan or 2.40% [10]. - **Cotton 5 - 9 Spread**: It was - 190 yuan, down 5 yuan or - 2.70% [16]. - **Egg 3 - 4 Spread**: It was - 253 yuan, down 3 yuan or - 1.20% [18]. - **Pig 3 - 5 Spread**: It was - 475 yuan, down 30 yuan or - 6.74% [19]. - **Soybean Meal 05 - 09 Spread**: It was - 77 yuan, up 18 yuan or 18.95% [21]. - **Rapeseed Meal 05 - 09 Spread**: It was - 46 yuan, up 1 yuan or 2.13% [21]. 3.2. Inventory and Supply - demand - **Inventory**: - **Palm Oil**: The warehouse receipt on January 7 was 1,248, up 688 or 122.86% [1]. - **Soybean Oil**: The warehouse receipt was 28,264 (unchanged) [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The warehouse receipt was 2,130, down 1,167 [1]. - **Jujube**: The warehouse receipt was 2,263, up 158 or 7.51%, and the effective forecast was 745, down 107 or - 12.56% [2]. - **Corn**: The warehouse receipt was 34,655, up 3,000 or 9.48% [5]. - **Sugar**: The warehouse receipt was unchanged at 1000, and the effective forecast was 4,563 (unchanged) [8]. - **Apple**: The national cold - storage inventory was 733.56 tons, down 10.48 tons or - 1.41% [10]. - **Cotton**: The commercial inventory was 534.90 tons, up 66.54 tons or 14.2%, and the industrial inventory was 98.39 tons, up 4.43 tons or 4.7% [16]. - **Meal**: The soybean meal warehouse receipt was 25,480, up 700 or 2.8% [21]. - **Supply - demand**: - **Sugar**: The national cumulative sugar production decreased by 23.24% year - on - year, and the cumulative sales decreased by 42.53% year - on - year. In Guangxi, the cumulative production decreased by 73.87% year - on - year, and the monthly sales decreased by 68.63% year - on - year [8]. - **Cotton**: The import volume increased by 33.3% month - on - month, and the textile industry's inventory decreased year - on - year [16]. - **Pig**: The slaughter volume increased by 0.63% day - on - day, and the self - breeding and purchased - piglet breeding profits improved [19].

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1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall view is that due to the expected high - yield in South America, there is no basis for a bull market. However, demand is expected to improve, limiting the downside. The market will generally fluctuate in a bullish manner within the range of 1000 - 1200 cents per bushel [5]. 3. Summary of Each Section 3.1 Market Price - This week, the closing price of the active contract of US soybeans was 1046 cents per bushel, a decline of 25.75 cents per bushel. The reasons were that China's purchase reached 80% of the commitment with a slower pace, and there was no large - scale drought in South America. Next week, attention should be paid to China's procurement rhythm, South American weather, and biodiesel policy progress [8]. - This week, the price of US soybean meal closed at 295.9 dollars per short - ton, an increase of 11.5 dollars per short - ton. The slowdown in China's purchase due to holidays and reaching 80% of the committed purchase volume raised concerns about subsequent demand [13]. - This week, the price of US soybean oil rebounded slightly, closing at 49.32 cents per pound, an increase of 0.12 cents per pound. The reasons were the stability of the oil market and soybean meal bearing the downward pressure of soybeans [17]. - As of December 26, the price of soybeans in the US Gulf was 11.31 dollars per bushel, basically unchanged [20]. - As of December 26, the price of soybeans in Iowa was 9.9 dollars per bushel, a weekly increase of 0.1 [22]. - On January 2, the spot price of soybeans in Mato Grosso, Brazil, dropped by 0.47 to 135.76 reais per bag [24]. - As of January 2, the spot price of soybeans at Brazilian ports dropped by 0.48 to 142.14 reais per bag [26]. 3.2 Supply Factors - The drought situation in US soybean - producing areas remained flat, with a drought rate of 70% compared to 66% last week [29]. - In Brazil, precipitation in the southern region will be relatively high in the next two weeks, while in the central - western region it will be slightly low. The precipitation in the main producing areas will be slightly low in the next two weeks. In the second week, precipitation in Mato Grosso will be lower year - on - year, in Paraná it will be normal in the second week after being low in the first week, and in Rio Grande do Sul it will be high in the second week [31][36][39]. - In Argentina, precipitation will be low in the next two weeks, and in the next week, it will be low in the central and southern regions [46][48]. - As of the week of December 27, the soybean sowing progress in Brazil was 97.9%, approaching the completion of sowing [50]. 3.3 Demand Factors - As of December 12, the US soybean crushing profit was 2.33 dollars per bushel, down from 2.45 dollars last week [53]. - On December 19, the weekly export volume of US soybeans was 919,400 tons, up from 721,200 tons last week [55]. - On December 26, the weekly export inspection volume was 750,300 tons, down from 929,300 tons last week [57]. - The net sales of US soybeans this year were 1,055,600 tons, down from 2,396,000 tons last week (the week of December 19) [59]. - The sales of US soybeans for the next year were 0 tons, the same as last week [61]. - The quantity of US soybeans shipped to China in the week of December 26 was 135,400 tons, down from 386,000 tons last week [63]. 3.4 Other Factors - The latest value of the ENSO (NINO3.4 anomaly index) is - 1.026, remaining in the La Nina range [66]. - The cost of soybeans in Brazil is expected to rise next year, and the soybean planting costs in Brazil and the US are expected to increase slightly. The US soybean planting cost continues to rise, while the Brazilian soybean cost has decreased year - on - year [68][70][72]. - As of December 23, the net long position of soybeans was 143,300 lots, down from 179,000 lots last week; the net short position of soybean oil was 86,100 lots, up from 56,700 lots last week; the net short position of soybean meal was 5,900 lots, compared with a net long position of 5,300 lots last week [74][76][78].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall market shows complex trends, with different commodities and financial products having their own characteristics. Some are influenced by supply - demand fundamentals, some by geopolitical factors, and others by macro - economic policies and seasonal factors. The market rhythm switches quickly, and most products are in a state of oscillation, with different potential investment opportunities and risks [2][3][14] - Different industries have different outlooks. For example, some industries like polycrystalline silicon and manganese silicon are expected to have a relatively positive trend, while others such as urea and PVC may face certain challenges in supply - demand balance and price trends [13][18][28] Summary by Related Catalogs Precious Metals and Base Metals - **Precious Metals**: International gold prices continued a moderate upward trend after the breakthrough, while silver, platinum, and palladium accelerated their rise, with a gain of over 10%. The Fed's easing prospects and geopolitical risks support the strength of precious metals. The spot shortage expectation makes silver, platinum, and palladium more favored by funds, and the gold - silver ratio has dropped significantly below the average. However, exchange restrictions are frequent, and market volatility is extremely high [2] - **Copper**: Copper prices continued to rise strongly last Friday. The Shanghai copper weighted reached a maximum of 102,700 yuan, and it is expected that the London copper will open at $12,700 - $12,800. The market has quickly reached the bullish targets of most overseas institutions for 2026. The target price of the copper market is raised, with the London copper at about $13,100 and the Shanghai copper at about 104,000 yuan [3] - **Aluminum**: The aluminum market's fundamentals are neutral, with poor apparent demand and spot feedback. Shanghai aluminum mainly followed the upward trend, with relatively mild fluctuations. Long - positions should be held with the 40 - day moving average as the support [4] - **Zinc**: In late December, domestic smelter overhauls increased, supporting the adjustment of Shanghai zinc above the annual line. In January, the pressure on the zinc ingot supply side is small, and with the late Spring Festival in 2026 and the expected good start, the consumption side is not pessimistic. Shanghai zinc is expected to oscillate in the range of 22,800 - 23,800 yuan/ton [7] Energy and Chemicals - **Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: High - sulfur fuel oil supply is mainly affected by geopolitical factors, with the shipping rhythm in the Middle East and Russia slowing down. The demand side may be boosted by improved refinery profits and the US blockade of Venezuelan oil exports. Singapore's inventory continues to accumulate, and the high - inventory pressure is still significant. Low - sulfur fuel oil supply is dominated by overseas refinery starts. The demand side of ship fuel consumption is continuously weak due to high - sulfur substitution [21] - **Asphalt**: Since December, the weekly shipment volume has remained below 400,000 tons, at a low level in the same period of the past four years. Last week, both social and factory inventories increased. The supply - demand of BU is marginally relaxed, but positive news has a significant boost. However, it will eventually return to the price - pressured pattern dominated by supply - demand relaxation [22] Agricultural Products - **Soybean & Bean Meal**: CBOT soybeans oscillated downward after reopening last Friday, and Dalian soybean meal rose first and then fell. In the future, attention should be paid to the specific export situation of US soybeans and whether the La Nina weather in South America can have a continuous impact [35] - **Cotton**: US cotton rebounded from a low level last week, and the weekly signing data improved, with increased Chinese purchases. Domestic Zhengzhou cotton rose continuously, and the market is bullish. Although this year's new cotton production has increased significantly, the commercial inventory is basically the same as the previous year, and the sales progress is relatively fast [42] Others - **Stock Index**: The previous trading day, the broader market oscillated with heavy volume, and the Shanghai Composite Index recorded an 8 - day consecutive gain. All major futures index contracts closed higher, with IC leading the gain. Industrial profits of large - scale enterprises from January to November showed a growth trend, and the RMB exchange rate broke "7" last week [47] - **Treasury Bonds**: On December 26, 2025, the 30 - year treasury bond futures had the largest increase of 0.36%. In December, the central bank's net MLF injection was 10 billion yuan, a consecutive tenth - month incremental renewal. Against the background of increased counter - cyclical adjustment policies, long - term interest rates have risen significantly recently [48]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall view of US soybeans is that there is no basis for a bull market due to a bumper harvest in South America, but the downside is limited as demand is expected to improve. The market is expected to be range - bound with an upward bias, trading between 1000 - 1200 cents per bushel [5]. - There are both bearish and bullish factors. Bearish factors include the possible weakening of the Trump administration's support for biodiesel blending policies after China's purchase of US soybeans, the return of the rainy season in Brazil with improved precipitation during the critical crop - growing season, and the continued increase in Brazil's planting area in the 2025/26 season. Bullish factors are the expected purchase of 12 million tons of US soybeans by China before February 2026 and over 25 million tons per year for the next three years, the initial signs of drought in southern Argentina, and the possibility of South American soybean production reduction due to La Niña weather [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Price - **US Soybeans**: This week, the continuous contract of US soybeans closed at 1058.75 cents per bushel, up 9.5 cents per bushel. The rise was driven by the increase in domestic Chinese commodities, while the lack of large - scale drought in South America limited the upside. Next week, attention should be paid to China's procurement rhythm, South American weather, and biodiesel policy progress [9]. - **US Soybean Meal**: This week, the price of US soybean meal closed at $303.7 per short ton, up $6.1 per short ton. The increase was due to China's continuous purchase of US soybeans and the sharp rise in the Chinese soybean meal market, which led to a rebound in the global soybean meal price [14]. - **US Soybean Oil**: This week, US soybean oil fluctuated slightly higher, closing at 48.72 cents per pound, down 0.82 cents per pound. The rebound was driven by the rise in soybeans, but concerns about the biodiesel outlook and the decline in crude oil prices put upward pressure on the price [19]. - **Regional Prices**: As of December 19, the price of soybeans in the US Gulf was $11.29 per bushel, down $0.21 from the previous week; the price of soybeans in Iowa was $9.8 per bushel, down $0.26 from the previous week. On December 19, the spot price in Mato Grosso, Brazil, rose to 116.36 reais per bag, and as of December 26, the spot price at Brazilian ports slightly declined to 142.62 reais per bag [21][23][25][27]. 3.2 Supply Factors - **Drought in the US**: The drought situation in US soybean - producing areas remained stable, with a drought rate of 66%, compared to 68% last week [30]. - **South American Weather and Planting Progress**: Brazil's precipitation is expected to be scarce in the next two weeks except in the southern region. The sowing progress of soybeans in Brazil as of December 20 was 97.6%, close to completion. In Argentina, precipitation is expected to be scarce in the central and southern regions in the next two weeks, while it will be abundant in the north [32][44][49]. 3.3 Demand Factors - **Soybean Crushing Profit**: As of December 12, the US soybean crushing profit was $2.33 per bushel, compared to $2.45 last week [52]. - **Export Data**: On December 12, the weekly export volume of US soybeans was 721,200 tons, compared to 1.0711 million tons last week. On December 19, the weekly export inspection volume was 870,000 tons, compared to 810,000 tons last week. The net sales for this year were 2.396 million tons, compared to 1.552 million tons last week. The net sales for the next year were 0 tons, the same as last week. The quantity shipped to China on December 19 was 386,000 tons, compared to 202,000 tons last week [54][56][58][60][62]. 3.4 Other Factors - **ENSO Index**: The latest ENSO (NINO3.4 anomaly index) value was - 1.27, remaining in the La Niña range [65]. - **Cost Factors**: The cost of soybean production in Brazil and the US is expected to rise slightly. In the US, the cost of soybean production continues to increase, while in Brazil, the cost has decreased year - on - year [67][69][71][72]. - **CFTC Positions**: As of December 16, the net long position of soybeans was 179,000 contracts, compared to 211,600 contracts last week; the net short position of soybean oil was 67,000 contracts, compared to 103,000 contracts last week; the net long position of soybean meal was 53,000 contracts, compared to 227,000 contracts last week [73][74][76].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - The investment rating of soybeans (domestic), soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, corn, live pigs, and eggs is ★★★, indicating a clearer long - term trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently. The rating system is based on the star - level description where red stars represent a predicted trend of rising, and three stars mean a clearer long/short trend and a suitable investment opportunity [1][10]. Core Viewpoints - The overall situation of the agricultural products market is affected by various factors such as policies, weather, and market sentiment. Different agricultural products have different trends and investment strategies, and continuous attention should be paid to fundamental and policy changes [2][3][4]. Summary by Related Categories Soybeans (Domestic) - Domestic soybeans are oscillating strongly. The auction this week shows good trading volume, strong trading prices, and premium transactions. Policy - side transactions support the price, which is stable and strong. Continuous attention to fundamentals and policies is needed [2]. Soybeans & Soybean Meal - CBOT soybeans were closed for the Christmas holiday, and the U.S. soybeans opened at 22:30 Beijing time today. The market is worried about import clearance speed, causing the price to rise. Attention should be paid to U.S. soybean exports and the impact of South American La Nina weather. Recently, soybean meal prices will follow U.S. soybeans to oscillate, waiting for South American weather changes [3]. Soybean Oil & Palm Oil - Soybean and palm oil are rising with a reduction in positions. The macro - sentiment of commodities is improving, and attention should be paid to price rebounds due to the macro - atmosphere. There are concerns about tightened soybean clearance policies. Palm oil's high - frequency data shows a mitigation of the bearish fundamental atmosphere. After recent declines and the release of negative factors, U.S. soybeans have stabilized and rebounded. The short - term risk of South American crop weather is low, which requires continuous attention [4]. Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil - Domestic rapeseed futures prices are rising as the market expects stricter import inspection and quarantine policies for oilseeds. The demand for Canadian rapeseed crushing has only slightly increased compared to the same period last year, and poor exports still suppress its prices. Australian rapeseed imports have not been crushed yet. The continuous inventory decline of domestic rapeseed supports near - month futures prices. Attention should be paid to the possibility of improved China - Canada relations and the opening of Australian rapeseed commercial purchases. Overall, economic and trade trends are the biggest variable for rapeseed. In a state of global rapeseed oversupply, the medium - term strategy is to short on rebounds, and the short - term strategy is to wait and see [6]. Corn - Today, the spot prices of corn in Northeast China and North Ports are stable and strong. The weather affects farmers' reluctance to sell in the Northeast, and downstream enterprises have partially established safety stocks. The number of remaining vehicles at corn deep - processing enterprises this morning is 314, showing a decline. After the phased supply - demand mismatch is alleviated, there is no obvious increase in downstream purchases. Future attention should be on the Northeast grain - selling progress and corn and wheat auctions. The Dalian corn futures 03 contract will oscillate in the short term [7]. Live Pigs - The main live - pig futures contract 03 rose sharply today and closed above the 60 - day moving average. The overall index showed a situation of increased trading volume. After two months of low - level consolidation, beware of the price entering a rebound channel. In the long - term, the industry is still in the process of increasing slaughter due to previous production capacity recovery, and pig prices are expected to remain low. The current price increase is regarded as a rebound [8]. Eggs - The egg futures prices strengthened again during trading. On the spot side, the price in Hebei was raised for the second consecutive day. The real - world fundamentals of the egg - laying hen industry are gradually improving, and the long - term egg - laying hen inventory is expected to decline. The market has gradually accepted the change from a pessimistic to an optimistic expectation for eggs, which is likely to form a consensus. In the long - term, a long - position thinking should be adopted, while being vigilant against the risk of a rapid increase in futures prices due to pre - emptive trading by funds [9].

Group 1: Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. Group 2: Core Views Oils and Fats - The short - term outlook for palm oil is positive, with potential for further rebound. However, domestic Dalian palm oil futures face resistance at 8,500 yuan. The fundamentals of soy oil are currently bearish, and the CBOT soy oil is expected to have limited upward movement. Rapeseed oil has seen a short - term rebound, but the upward momentum may be restricted due to a bearish sentiment in the domestic oils and fats market [1]. Livestock (Pigs) - The spot price of pigs is stable, and the market trend is slightly stronger due to increased demand around the Winter Solstice. The futures market is mainly focused on the post - Spring Festival market, and the futures price is expected to find support at around 11,000 [3][4]. Meal (Soybean and Rapeseed) - The domestic soybean meal market remains loose, with limited downward space but no clear upward drivers. Attention should be paid to the performance of the main contract around 2,750 [9]. Jujube - The jujube spot market has weak demand and supply exceeds demand, causing the futures price to be under pressure. The futures price may rebound slightly if there is a boost in the Spring Festival consumption; otherwise, it will continue to decline [12]. Apple - The apple market has weak demand, slow inventory clearance, and limited upward potential for the futures price. As the festival approaches, the market sentiment may improve, and it is recommended to take profits on long positions [15][19]. Corn and Corn Starch - The corn market may maintain a weak pattern in the short term, but the downward space is limited. Attention should be paid to the selling sentiment and policy releases [22]. Cotton - Internationally, the U.S. cotton market will remain volatile. Domestically, the supply pressure of cotton is gradually easing, and the demand is weakening. Zhengzhou cotton is expected to fluctuate within a relatively strong range, but there is limited upward momentum [25][26]. Sugar - The global sugar supply outlook is loose, which restricts the rebound of the raw sugar price. The domestic sugar market is expected to remain weak and volatile next week, and it is advisable to short on rallies [29]. Eggs - The egg market still has a pattern of "strong supply and weak demand", and the market sentiment is not optimistic. The price is expected to be weak and volatile this week [31][32]. Group 3: Summary by Related Categories Oils and Fats - **Soybean Oil**: On December 19, the spot price in Jiangsu was 8,240 yuan, down 1.79% from the previous day. The futures price of Y2605 was 7,952 yuan, down 1.05%. The basis was 288 yuan, down 18.64% [1]. - **Palm Oil**: The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong on December 19 was 8,250 yuan, down 1.79%. The futures price of P2605 was 8,280 yuan, down 0.93%. The basis was - 30 yuan, down 171.43%. The inventory decreased, and the import profit was - 584 yuan, down 31.59% [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The spot price of third - grade rapeseed oil in Jiangsu on December 19 was 9,270 yuan, down 2.42%. The futures price of OI605 was 8,929 yuan, down 2.33%. The basis was 341 yuan, down 4.75% [1]. Livestock (Pigs) - **Futures Indicators**: The basis of the main contract was 305 yuan, down 28.24%. The price of the live - hog 2605 contract was 11,905 yuan/ton, down 0.17%. The 3 - 5 spread was - 560 yuan, up 6.67% [3]. - **Spot Prices**: The spot prices in different regions showed slight fluctuations, with prices in Henan, Sichuan, and other regions decreasing, and prices in Hebei increasing [3]. - **Spot Indicators**: The daily slaughter volume decreased by 1.19%, the weekly piglet price decreased by 6.06%, and the monthly fertile sow inventory decreased by 1.12%. The self - breeding and purchased - piglet breeding profits increased [4]. Meal (Soybean and Rapeseed) - **Soybean Meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu remained unchanged at 3,100 yuan. The futures price of M2605 was 2,741 yuan, up 0.22%. The basis was 359 yuan, down 1.64% [9]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu was 2,420 yuan, up 1.68%. The futures price of RM2605 was 2,337 yuan, up 0.60%. The basis was 83 yuan, up 45.61% [9]. - **Soybean**: The spot price in Harbin remained unchanged at 3,940 yuan. The futures price of the soybean main contract was 4,105 yuan, up 1.31%. The basis was - 165 yuan, down 47.32% [9]. Jujube - The futures prices of different contracts decreased, with the main contract (2605) at 8,820 yuan, down 0.84%. The spot prices in Cangzhou also decreased slightly. The basis increased, and the inventory remained stable [12]. Apple - The main contract (2605) price was 9,149 yuan, down 0.54%. The basis was - 949 yuan, up 50 yuan. The market arrival volume in some markets remained stable, and the national cold - storage inventory did not change [15]. Corn and Corn Starch - **Corn**: The price of the corn 2603 contract remained unchanged at 2,192 yuan. The Pingcang price in Jinzhou Port decreased by 0.44%. The basis decreased by 10.20%. The long - short spread increased by 2.78% [22]. - **Corn Starch**: The price of the corn starch 2603 contract was 2,484 yuan, down 0.32%. The basis increased by 10.26%. The 3 - 5 spread decreased by 2.13% [22]. Cotton - **Futures Market**: The price of the cotton 2605 contract was 14,070 yuan/ton, up 0.39%. The ICE U.S. cotton main contract price decreased by 0.06%. The 5 - 1 spread decreased by 100.00% [25]. - **Spot Market**: The Xinjiang arrival price and the 3128B index increased slightly. The industrial and commercial inventories increased, and the import volume increased [25][26]. Sugar - **Futures Market**: The price of the sugar 2601 contract was 5,225 yuan/ton, up 0.93%. The ICE raw sugar main contract price increased by 1.01%. The 1 - 5 spread increased by 11.24% [29]. - **Spot Market**: The spot price in Nanning increased by 0.38%, and the price in Kunming decreased by 0.29%. The national sugar production and sales decreased year - on - year [29]. Eggs - The price of the egg 01 contract was 3,049 yuan/500KG, down 0.91%. The egg - laying hen inventory is expected to continue to decline slowly, and the market supply - demand contradiction has been marginally alleviated, but the "supply - strong, demand - weak" pattern remains [31].