油脂油料四季报： 油粕或先抑后扬，关注套利机会 2025年9月 CO NTENTS 目 录 01 观点策略 0203 油脂油料行情回顾 全球油脂油料供需分析 04 国内油脂油料供需分析 01 观点策略 观点策略 供应：预计2025/26年度全球油籽延续供应偏宽松格局，主要是菜籽和葵籽产量恢复，大豆产量小幅增加。美豆种植面积减少， 但单产较高，已经开始收割，供应压力逐渐显现。阿根廷大豆种植面积下降，出现拉尼娜天气的概率较大，阿根廷大豆可能大幅减产。 巴西大豆种植面积增加，预计增产，弥补美豆和阿根廷大豆减产。四季度棕榈油进入季节性减产期，但今年马来西亚和印尼降雨量充 沛，从降雨量对产量的滞后影响来看，预计减产期产量下降幅度也不大，但若发生洪水灾害，则短期可能减产较大。当前马来西亚棕 榈油库存处于高位，印尼棕榈油库存偏低。全球菜籽和葵籽产量恢复，新季菜籽收割后，预计库存逐渐回升。国内方面，大豆进口量 较大，主要采购南美大豆，预计四季度供应偏宽松，棕榈油进口亏损较重，买船不积极，进口量偏低，油厂菜籽库存处于低位，对进 口加拿大油菜籽采用保证金形式实施临时反倾销措施，此前我国主要进口加拿大油菜籽，虽然近期增加澳大利亚的 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View - The overall view of US soybeans is that there is no basis for a bull market due to a bumper harvest in South America, but the probability of a sharp decline is small due to cost support. The market is expected to fluctuate with a slight upward trend, ranging from 950 to 1150 cents per bushel [5]. Summary by Directory Market Price - China continues to be absent from the US soybean export market, and Argentina's tax - free policy stimulates agricultural exports, squeezing US soybean exports. The US soybean price oscillated and closed lower this week [8][10]. - The US soybean meal price declined this week because Argentina's tax - free policy led global buyers to increase purchases of Argentine agricultural products, putting pressure on US soybean meal exports [11][12]. - The US soybean oil price oscillated lower this week as Argentina's soybean oil exports increased significantly due to the tax - free policy, causing export pressure on US soybean oil [15]. - As of the week ending September 19, the spot price of soybeans at US Gulf ports was $10.83 per bushel, and the purchase price at farms (Iowa) was $9.51 per bushel, slightly down. As of September 26, the spot price of soybeans in south - western Iowa was $9.5375 per bushel [17][19][21]. - On September 26, the spot price of soybeans in Mato Grosso, Brazil, slightly decreased to 116.07 reais per bag, and the spot price at Brazilian ports slightly decreased to 134.88 reais per bag [23][25]. Supply Factors - The drought situation in US soybean - producing areas has improved slightly, with a drought rate of 56% this week compared to 58% last week [28]. - In the next two weeks, the temperature in US soybean - producing areas will be relatively warm, with no threat of early frost, and precipitation will be relatively low, which is conducive to crop harvesting [30][32]. - In Brazil, most of the producing areas have slightly less precipitation, the southern region is relatively humid, the sowing in Paraná state is progressing quickly, but the progress in the central - western regions such as Mato Grosso is slow [35]. - Precipitation in Argentina's soybean - producing areas is normal to high, and the sowing work is expected to start in October [37]. - As of the week ending September 9, the good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans was 61%, compared with 63% last week and 64% in the same period last year [39]. Demand Factors - As of September 19, the US soybean crushing profit was $3.22 per bushel, up from $3.14 last week [42]. - The weekly export volume of US soybeans was 512,300 tons, down from 837,100 tons last week; the weekly export inspection and quarantine volume was 484,100 tons, down from 804,300 tons last week [45][47]. - The net sales of US soybeans this year were 724,400 tons, down from 923,000 tons last week; the sales of US soybeans for the next year were 0 tons, down from 220,000 tons last week [49][51]. - The quantity of US soybeans shipped to China last week was 0 tons (0 ships), the same as last week [53]. Other Factors - The latest value of the ENSO (NINO3.4 anomaly index) is - 1.068, indicating that it has entered the La Nina range [56]. - The soybean planting costs in Brazil and the US have decreased [58][60]. - As of September 23, the net short position of soybeans in CFTC was 18,200 lots, compared with 14,400 lots last week; the net long position of soybean oil was 8,040 lots, down from 35,000 lots last week; the net short position of soybean meal was 82,700 lots, compared with 59,400 lots last week [64][66][68].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall view is that with a bumper harvest in South America, there is no basis for a bull market; cost support reduces the probability of a sharp decline, and the market is generally oscillating with a slight upward trend, ranging from 950 - 1150 cents per bushel [5]. - Negative factors include that the communique of the recent China - US presidential call indicates that China will not purchase US soybeans before November, the weather in the main US soybean - producing areas is favorable with high yield prospects, and the expected increase in Brazil's planting area in the 2025/26 season is 1.8% [5]. - Positive factors are that policies such as the biodiesel policy and the expectation of improved China - US relations support prices, the US soybean balance sheet is in a tight balance, and La Nina weather may delay Brazil's soybean planting [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Price - This week, US soybean prices oscillated and closed lower. The China - US presidential call did not mention agricultural product procurement, and it is expected that China will be absent from the US soybean export market before the APEC meeting in November. The US soybean harvest progress has accelerated. Next week, attention should be paid to the follow - up progress of China - US negotiations, the weather conditions in the main production areas of the US and Brazil, and the progress of the biodiesel policy [8][10]. - This week, US soybean meal prices declined. The market expected that improved China - US relations would bring better export prospects for US agricultural products, but the presidential call did not mention agricultural product procurement [11][12]. - This week, US soybean oil prices oscillated lower. The draft opinion on the biodiesel exemption policy has changed, adding options that worry the market about demand prospects [15]. - As of September 12, the spot price of soybeans at US Gulf ports was $10.99 per bushel; the purchase price at farms (Iowa) was $9.73 per bushel, slightly down; as of September 18, the spot price of soybeans in south - western Iowa was $9.775 per bushel; on September 18, the spot price in Mato Grosso, Brazil, slightly decreased to 120.32 reais per bag; as of September 18, the spot price at Brazilian ports slightly decreased to 139.81 reais per bag [17][19][23][25]. Supply Factors - The drought situation in US soybean - producing areas has worsened, with a drought rate of 58% this week compared to 47% last week. In the next two weeks, the temperature in US producing areas will be warmer with no early frost threat, and there will be more precipitation in the main US soybean - producing areas. Most of the Brazilian producing areas have slightly less precipitation, the southern region is relatively humid, and the Brazilian rainy season is expected to return at the end of the month. Precipitation in Argentine soybean - producing areas is normal to high, and sowing is expected to start in October. As of September 12, the good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans was 63%, down from 64% last week and the same as the same period last year [28][30][32][34][36][39]. Demand Factors - As of September 12, the US soybean crushing profit was $3.14 per bushel, up from $3.08 last week. The weekly US soybean export volume was 837,100 tons, up from 640,000 tons last week; the weekly export inspection and quarantine volume was 804,300 tons, up from 467,600 tons last week; the net sales for this year were 923,000 tons, down from 1,389,400 tons last week; the sales for the next year were 2,200 tons, down from 1,074,000 tons last week; the quantity shipped to China last week was 0 tons [42][44][46][48][50][52]. Other Factors - The latest ENSO (NINO3.4 anomaly index) value is - 0.905, entering the La Nina range. The soybean planting costs in Brazil and the US have decreased. As of September 16, the net long position of soybeans in CFTC was 14,400 lots, compared with a net short position of 4,100 lots last week; the net long position of soybean oil was 35,000 lots, up from 17,500 lots last week; the net short position of soybean meal was 59,400 lots, compared with a net short position of 56,700 lots last week [55][57][63][65][67].

Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 观点与逻辑 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 美豆周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所 农产品组 谢义钦 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0017082 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 资料来源：同花顺，国泰君安期货研究 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 市场价格 02 资料来源：同花顺、钢联、国泰君安期货研究 01 美豆多空因素与观点 | 总体观点 | | --- | | 南美丰产，没有牛市基础；成本支撑，大跌概率小，总体震荡偏强，区间950-1150美分/蒲式耳 | | 利空因素 | | 1、美国对全球加关税可能导致美豆出口形势变差 | | 2、美豆主产区天气良好，单产前景预期较高 | | 3、巴西2025/26年度种植面积预计增加1.8% | | 利多因素 | | 1、生柴政策、中美关系缓和预期等支撑价格 | | 2、美国大豆平衡表紧平衡 | | 3、拉尼娜天气可 ...