News Summary Core Viewpoint - The soybean meal market is experiencing fluctuations in sales and pricing, with significant changes in import and export activities impacting the overall supply dynamics. Group 1: Market Transactions - On January 14, the total soybean meal transaction volume at major oil mills nationwide reached 928,200 tons, an increase of 580,000 tons compared to the previous trading day, with spot transactions accounting for 134,600 tons [1] - Coastal regions reported ordinary protein soybean meal basis quotes ranging from M2605-20 to M2605-60 yuan/ton, reflecting a decrease of 10 to 20 yuan/ton compared to the same period last week [1] Group 2: Export and Import Insights - Private exporters reported sales of 334,000 tons of soybeans to China, with cumulative purchases for the 2025/26 marketing year expected to be around 11.5 million tons, nearing the target of 12 million tons [2] - In December, China's soybean imports totaled 8.044 million tons, with total imports for the year reaching a record high of 111.833 million tons [3] Group 3: Production and Demand Trends - Domestic oil mills are increasing their operating rates, leading to a rise in soybean meal production, which is essential for feed and livestock enterprises preparing for peak season demand [3] - The USDA supply and demand report indicated that U.S. soybeans are experiencing weak fluctuations, with the market closely monitoring export conditions and potential weather impacts in South America [3]

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report Group 2: Core Views - The estimated ending inventory of US soybeans in the 2025/26 season remains at 290 million bushels, and the inventory-to-consumption ratio is at a relatively low level of 6.7%, providing some support for the downside of CBOT US soybeans. Attention should be paid to the adjustments of the January USDA Supply and Demand Report to US soybean yield and exports [9]. - There is no obvious speculative driver in the short - term South American weather. Brazil has started harvesting. Under the prediction of Brazilian soybean production, attention should be paid to the impact of the January harvest selling pressure on the Brazilian CNF premium [10]. - Recently, affected by domestic and foreign policy news, the soybean meal futures market is expected to be mainly volatile. In the short term, attention should be paid to the adjustments of the January USDA Supply and Demand Report, the trend of Brazilian premiums, and changes in China - Canada trade policies [10]. - The trend of the M3 - M5 spread is uncertain. Attention should be paid to domestic imported soybean auctions and customs policies, and cautious operation is recommended [10]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Data on Basis - **Soybean Meal Main Contract Basis**: In Dalian, it was 450 on January 12th, down 4; in Tianjin, it was 410, down 4; in Zhangjiagang (43% soybean meal spot basis to the main contract), it was 360, down 4; in Dongguan, it was 350, down 4; in Zhanjiang, it was 390, down 4; in Fangcheng, it was 400 [6]. - **Rapeseed Meal Spot Basis**: In Guangdong, it was 82 on January 12th, down 3; N3 - 2 was 327, up 18 [6]. 3.2 Spread Data - **Soybean Meal - Rapeseed Meal Spread**: The spot spread in Guangdong was 664 on January 12th, up 7; the futures spread of the main contract was 460, up 12 [7]. 3.3 International Data - The US dollar - RMB exchange rate was 6.9742, and the Brazilian soybean CNF premium was 147.00 cents per bushel, down 10. The Brazilian soybean crushing margin was 155 yuan per ton [7]. 3.4 Inventory Data - The report presents historical data on China's port soybean inventory, major oil mills' soybean inventory, feed enterprises' soybean meal inventory days, and major oil mills' soybean meal inventory from 2018 - 2025 [7][8]. 3.5开机和压榨情况 (Operation and Pressing Conditions) - The report shows historical data on the operating rate and soybean pressing volume of major oil mills from 2020 - 2025 [8].

Report Summary Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - From December 29, 2025, to January 2, 2026, US soybean futures prices declined due to limited Chinese purchases, weak US soybean export data, and South American weather pressure. During the week of January 2, the main March contract of US soybeans dropped 2.4%, and the main March contract of US soybean meal fell 3.74% [1]. - Before the holiday (December 29 - 31, 2025), domestic soybean meal futures prices rose first and then fell, while soybean futures prices rose strongly. After the holiday (January 5 - 9, 2026), it is expected that both Dalian soybean meal and soybean futures prices will fluctuate [1][5]. Detailed Summaries by Content International Soybean Market Fundamentals (December 29, 2025 - January 2, 2026) - Chinese purchases of US soybeans were limited, with a cumulative sales volume of approximately 36.7 tons to China and unknown destinations and 10 tons to Egypt in the week of December 29 - January 2. As of the week of December 18, 2025, China's purchases of US soybeans for the 2025/26 season totaled about 603 tons [1]. - As of the week of December 18, 2025, the export shipments of US soybeans in the 2025/26 season were about 85 tons, a year - on - year decrease of about 46%; the cumulative export shipments were about 1401 tons, a year - on - year decrease of about 47% [1]. - The import cost of Brazilian soybeans decreased week - on - week. As of the week of December 31, 2025, the average CNF premium of Brazilian soybeans for February 2026 delivery increased slightly week - on - week, the average import cost decreased week - on - week, and the average crushing profit on the futures market increased week - on - week [1]. - As of the week of December 31, 2025, the planting progress of Argentine soybeans in the 2025/26 season was about 82%, behind the 93% of the same period last year, gradually approaching the end [1]. - According to the January 2 weather forecast, in the next two weeks (January 3 - 17, 2026), precipitation in the main soybean - producing areas of Brazil will be slightly less, and temperatures will be "low first and then high"; in Argentina, precipitation will be less (improving from January 8), and temperatures will be low [1]. Domestic Soybean Meal Spot Market (December 29 - 31, 2025) - Trading volume increased week - on - week. The average daily trading volume of soybean meal in major domestic oil mills was about 20 tons, compared with about 16 tons in the previous week [3]. - Pick - up volume decreased slightly week - on - week. The average daily pick - up volume of soybean meal in major oil mills was about 18.2 tons, compared with about 18.3 tons in the previous week [3]. - The basis increased slightly week - on - week. The weekly average basis of soybean meal (Zhangjiagang) was about 356 yuan/ton, compared with about 353 yuan/ton in the previous week and about 252 yuan/ton in the same period last year [3]. - Inventory increased slightly week - on - week and year - on - year. As of the week of December 26, 2025, the inventory of soybean meal in major domestic oil mills was about 103 tons, a week - on - week increase of about 3% and a year - on - year increase of about 65% [3]. Domestic Soybean Spot Market (December 29 - 31, 2025) - Soybean prices were stable and slightly stronger. The purchase price of clean soybeans in some northeastern regions increased by 40 - 60 yuan/ton week - on - week, remained flat in some inland areas, and the sales price in the sales areas of northeastern edible soybeans increased by 40 - 80 yuan/ton week - on - week [4]. - The state - reserve soybean auction had good results, but the premium decreased. On December 29, the planned auction volume was about 19 tons, the actual transaction volume was about 15.59 tons, the reserve price was 3950 yuan/ton, and the average transaction price was 4014 yuan/ton, with a premium of 0 - 180 yuan/ton [4]. - The trading of soybeans in the sales areas was slow, but attention should be paid to the subsequent restocking demand. As the Spring Festival approached, there was restocking demand in all market segments, and prices may rise [4]. Post - holiday Forecast (January 5 - 9, 2026) - For soybean meal, pay attention to US soybean export demand (Chinese purchases, weekly US soybean export sales reports) and South American weather [5]. - For soybeans, due to the strong pre - holiday policy sentiment but the weak external soybean market, it is expected that the domestic futures market will fluctuate after the pre - holiday rise. Pay attention to the subsequent state - reserve release [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overall, the report expects the overall trend of oils and fats to be oscillating upward, but currently lacks strong drivers. Without positive macro - capital support, the upside potential for oils and fats is limited. It also suggests paying attention to the arbitrage opportunity of going long on palm oil and shorting rapeseed oil in the first quarter due to the abundant rapeseed harvest and palm oil inventory reduction [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Viewpoint Strategy - CBOT soybeans are unlikely to fall below 1000 cents per bushel. If the U.S. biodiesel policy is favorable, it is expected to oscillate upward. Palm oil prices are unlikely to break through 10,000 yuan per ton. Rapeseed oil will be under pressure in the first half of the year. The overall trend of oils and fats is expected to be oscillating upward, but the upside potential is limited. Pay attention to the arbitrage opportunity of going long on palm oil and shorting rapeseed oil in the first quarter [8]. - The main influencing factors include South American weather, trade policies, biodiesel policies, and Indonesian palm oil production [9]. 3.2 2025 Oils and Fats and Oilseeds Market Review 3.2.1 Oils and Fats Unilateral Review - In 2025, the overall trend of oils and fats was slightly upward with oscillations, showing a differentiated trend. Palm oil prices were volatile, with significant drops in October. U.S. soybean oil prices rose significantly, while rapeseed oil prices fell due to abundant supply. The market was affected by various factors such as USDA reports, U.S. biodiesel policies, and geopolitical conflicts [12][15]. 3.2.2 Oils and Fats Spread Review - The spreads between soybean - palm oil and rapeseed - palm oil changed throughout the year, affected by factors such as palm oil seasonal production, global rapeseed production, and anti - dumping investigations [20]. 3.2.3 Protein Meal Unilateral Review - Protein meal prices were volatile, affected by factors such as USDA reports, U.S. tariff policies, and soybean import volumes. The prices of soybean meal and rapeseed meal showed different trends at different times [23]. 3.2.4 Protein Meal Spread Review - The spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal mainly oscillated between 350 - 550, with significant changes in March, April, August, and November, affected by tariff policies and anti - dumping investigations [27]. 3.3 Global Oils and Fats and Oilseeds Supply - Demand Analysis 3.3.1 Global Oilseeds - Global oilseeds are in abundant supply with variety differentiation. In the 2025/26 period, the total global oilseed production is expected to be 690.255 million tons, an increase of 5.75 million tons year - on - year. The production of soybeans decreased by 4.613 million tons, while the production of rapeseed increased by 9.274 million tons [31][32]. - Global vegetable oils are expected to see a slight reduction in inventory, while the inventory of protein meals will remain largely unchanged. In the 2025/26 period, the global vegetable oil production is expected to be 233.288 million tons, an increase of 3.732 million tons year - on - year, and the inventory will decrease by 0.393 million tons. The global protein meal production is expected to be 393.578 million tons, an increase of 7.538 million tons year - on - year, and the inventory will remain basically the same [35][37]. 3.3.2 Soybean Series - Global soybean production is decreasing and inventory is being reduced. In the 2025/26 period, the global soybean production is 422.541 million tons, a decrease of 4.613 million tons year - on - year. The production in the U.S. decreased by 3.296 million tons, while that in Brazil increased by 3.5 million tons, and that in Argentina decreased by 2.608 million tons [41]. - U.S. soybean production decreased, and the planting cost increased slightly. The planting area decreased by 6.2 million acres, and the production decreased by 121 million bushels. The estimated planting cost in 2026 is 678.25 dollars per acre [44]. - U.S. soybean crushing demand is strong, and the export proportion is decreasing. In the 2025/26 period, the estimated crushing volume is 2.555 billion bushels, an increase of 4.50% year - on - year, and the export volume is expected to decrease by 6.73 million tons [50][54]. - Brazil's soybean planting area is increasing, and the production and export volume are expected to increase. In the 2025/26 period, the estimated production is 177 million tons, an increase of 3.29% year - on - year, and the export volume and crushing volume are expected to increase [56][66]. - Argentina's soybean production is expected to decrease slightly, but the export volume increased significantly in 2024/25 due to abundant production and reduced export taxes. In the 2025/26 period, the estimated production is 48.5 million tons, a decrease from the previous year [70][74]. 3.3.3 Palm Oil - Malaysia's palm oil production increased in 2025, but exports were weak, and inventory accumulated to a high level. The production from January to November was 18.4541 million tons, an increase of 3.38% year - on - year, and the export volume decreased by 10.41% [83][87]. - Indonesia's palm oil production increased in 2025, and the inventory remained low. The production from January to September was 43.34 million tons, an increase of 11.31% year - on - year. The export volume increased, and domestic consumption also increased [99][106]. 3.3.4 Rapeseed and Sunflower Seeds - Global rapeseed production is abundant, and supply is sufficient. In the 2025/26 period, the global rapeseed production is expected to be 95.273 million tons, an increase of 9.274 million tons year - on - year. The期末 inventory increased by 2.65 million tons to 12.5 million tons [110][111]. - Global sunflower seed production decreased slightly, and sunflower oil inventory continued to be reduced. In the 2025/26 period, the global sunflower seed production is expected to be 51.77 million tons, a decrease of 0.37 million tons year - on - year, and the sunflower oil inventory decreased by 0.4 million tons to 2.28 million tons [136]. 3.3.5 Oils and Fats Demand - Global vegetable oil consumption is increasing year by year. In the 2025/26 period, the estimated consumption is 227.94 million tons, with edible consumption accounting for 71.54% and industrial consumption accounting for 28.00% [141]. - India's vegetable oil demand is increasing year by year, and the import volume is expected to be large in the first quarter of 2026 due to low inventory and Ramadan stocking demand [145]. - U.S. biodiesel production and sales decreased significantly in 2025, but the production is expected to increase in the future. The U.S. biodiesel policy is still uncertain, and it may increase the demand for 1.5 million tons of soybean oil [149][154]. - Indonesia's biodiesel demand is increasing, and the implementation of B50 is expected to increase the demand for 3 million tons of CPO, but it is unlikely to be implemented before 2027. The implementation of B45 may increase the demand for 1.6 million tons of CPO [158][159]. - Brazil's biodiesel blending ratio is continuously increasing, and the demand for soybean oil is expected to increase significantly. If the blending ratio increases to 16% in 2026, it is expected to increase the demand for 400,000 tons of soybean oil [163]. - The production of biodiesel in the EU increased slightly, but the use of vegetable oils decreased, and the use of UCO, animal fats, and other raw materials increased [166][167]. - The global use of vegetable oils for biodiesel production is continuously increasing [171]. 3.4 Domestic Oils and Fats and Oilseeds Supply - Demand Analysis - The domestic soybean inventory is high, and the import volume is expected to increase in the 2025/26 period. The import volume from January to November 2025 was 103.78 million tons, an increase of 6.89% year - on - year. The estimated import volume in the 2025/26 period is 112 million tons, an increase of 4 million tons year - on - year [176]. - The domestic palm oil import volume was low in 2025, and the inventory is expected to decline [187]. - The domestic rapeseed import volume decreased significantly in 2025, and the supply of rapeseed is expected to be tight in the 2025/26 period. The import volume from January to November 2025 was 2.4479 million tons, a decrease of 57.67% year - on - year [192]. - The inventory trends of the three major oils and fats are differentiated. As of the 51st week, the soybean oil inventory was 1.1235 million tons, an increase of 17.90% year - on - year; the palm oil inventory was 700,000 tons, an increase of 30.01% year - on - year; and the rapeseed oil inventory was 303,000 tons, a decrease of 27.65% year - on - year [197]. - The demand for protein meals is expected to decrease due to the reduction of pig and poultry farming capacity [201][206]. - The supply of soybean meal is sufficient, and the inventory of rapeseed meal is continuously being reduced [209]. 3.5 Market Outlook - Supply: Globally, focus on whether the expected abundant South American soybean harvest is realized and whether the palm oil production in Malaysia and Indonesia can remain high. Domestically, focus on China - U.S. and China - Canada trade policies [213][214]. - Oils and Fats Demand: Globally, the consumption of oils and fats is increasing year by year. The growth of edible consumption mainly depends on India, and the growth of biodiesel consumption mainly depends on the biodiesel policies of Indonesia, the U.S., and Brazil [216]. - Protein Meal Demand: The demand for protein meals is expected to decrease due to the reduction of pig and poultry farming capacity. The prices of soybean meal and rapeseed meal are mainly affected by external oilseed prices [219].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The outlook for soymeal is to oscillate, waiting for further guidance from the external market; the outlook for soybeans is to oscillate under the influence of the overall soybean market atmosphere [1]. - This week, the soybean market witnessed a typical Christmas rally. On Wednesday, soybean prices on the Chicago Board of Trade closed up over 10 cents per bushel. After a one - day closure on Thursday, soybean futures trading resumed on Friday, with the focus remaining on South American weather [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking 3.1.1 Futures - DCE Soybean 2605 closed at 4,125 yuan/ton during the day session, up 19 yuan (+0.46%), and 4,128 yuan at night, up 15 yuan (+0.36%). - DCE Soymeal 2605 closed at 2,760 yuan/ton during the day session, up 21 yuan (+0.77%), and 2,776 yuan at night, up 37 yuan (+1.35%) [1]. 3.1.2 Spot - In Shandong, the soymeal (43%) price was 3,080 - 3,110 yuan/ton, with different basis levels for different months compared to M2605, mostly unchanged from the previous day. - In East China, prices in different regions and for different enterprises ranged from 3,020 - 3,110 yuan/ton, with various basis levels and changes compared to the previous day. - In South China, prices were 3,070 - 3,110 yuan/ton, with differences in basis levels and changes compared to the previous day [1]. 3.1.3 Main Industry Data - The trading volume of soymeal was 10.46 million tons per day, down from 16.49 million tons two days ago. - The inventory of soymeal was 105.63 million tons per week, up from 100.92 million tons two weeks ago [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - Due to public holidays, the markets in the US, Canada, and Malaysia were closed on Thursday, and there was no agricultural product daily review. - This week, the soybean market had a Christmas rally. After the closure on Thursday, trading resumed on Friday, and the focus was on South American weather [1][3]. 3.3 Weather Forecast - In the coming days, Rio Grande do Sul will experience heavy rainfall, while rainfall in Mato Grosso will be irregular. - According to the GFS model, moderate rainfall is expected in many areas of Brazil in the next 10 days, and heavy rainfall is expected in some areas. High temperatures are also being closely monitored as soybeans in the growth - critical period need suitable climate conditions. From Thursday to at least Saturday, national temperatures are expected to remain high [3]. 3.4 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of soymeal is 0; the trend intensity of soybeans is 0, mainly referring to the price fluctuations of the main - contract futures on the reporting day [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall agricultural market shows a complex trend with different products having different outlooks. For example, soybean meal and soybean oil are expected to be weak, while corn is likely to be volatile, and the situation of other products such as rubber, cotton, and sugar also varies [1][6]. - The prices of various agricultural products are affected by multiple factors including international supply - demand, weather, policies, and domestic inventory and consumption situations [1][6]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Conditions and Outlook of Each Variety 3.1.1 Oils and Fats - **Current Situation**: Affected by factors such as the uncertainty of US soybean demand, the expected increase in South American soybean production, high domestic soybean inventory, and changes in palm oil production and exports, domestic oils and fats are expected to have a slow de - stocking process [5]. - **Outlook**: Soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil are all expected to be weak and volatile. Attention should be paid to the MPOB and USDA supply - demand reports [5]. 3.1.2 Protein Meal - **Current Situation**: Internationally, the market is awaiting the USDA supply - demand report, with pessimistic expectations. Domestically, short - term import soybean auctions will increase supply pressure, and inventory is high. In the medium - term, the procurement progress of imported soybeans in January is 56%, and the expected import of Australian seeds suppresses the performance of rapeseed meal. In the long - term, South American weather determines the price trend of soybean meal [1][6]. - **Outlook**: US soybeans and domestic soybean meal are expected to be weak and volatile. They are expected to seek support at the lower end of the range. Attention should be paid to the guidance of the supply - demand report [2][6]. 3.1.3 Corn/Starch - **Current Situation**: The price of domestic corn shows a differentiated trend. The arrival volume of deep - processing enterprises in the Northeast and North China is low, and the price is strong. The price in the port area has declined due to the futures callback. The news of reserve auctions has affected market sentiment [6][7]. - **Outlook**: The price will be volatile in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see [7]. 3.1.4 Hogs - **Current Situation**: Affected by macro - sentiment, the futures price has rebounded, but the short - term supply and demand in the spot market are still loose. The supply will be in surplus until April 2026, and is expected to gradually decrease after May 2026 [7]. - **Outlook**: The market is in a pattern of "weak reality + strong expectation". The near - month contracts are likely to be weak, and attention can be paid to the opportunity of reverse spread strategies [8]. 3.1.5 Natural Rubber - **Current Situation**: The market lacks strong driving forces, with weak downstream buying support and a bearish market sentiment. Although overseas supply is increasing seasonally, there is still pressure on raw material prices to decline [9][10]. - **Outlook**: The rubber price is expected to continue the volatile trend, and it is difficult to have a trending market [10]. 3.1.6 Synthetic Rubber - **Current Situation**: The bullish driving force on the disk is insufficient. Although the price of raw material butadiene has rebounded, there is resistance in high - price transactions [11]. - **Outlook**: The disk will maintain a range - bound oscillation [11]. 3.1.7 Cotton - **Current Situation**: The supply of new cotton in Xinjiang is increasing, and the demand is seasonally weak but supported by rigid purchases. The commercial inventory is rising seasonally, and the 01 contract is strong recently but faces pressure above [11]. - **Outlook**: In the short term, pay attention to the pressure at 13,800 - 14,000 yuan/ton. In the long term, the valuation is low, and it is recommended to buy on dips [11]. 3.1.8 Sugar - **Current Situation**: In the medium - and long - term, the global sugar market is expected to be in surplus, and the price is likely to be weak. In the short term, the 01 contract has obvious support below [11][13]. - **Outlook**: In the medium - and long - term, it is expected to be weak and volatile. In the short term, there is support at 5,300 yuan/ton [13]. 3.1.9 Pulp - **Current Situation**: Last week, the pulp futures rose rapidly, and there were some bullish news. However, there is still pressure from hedging at high prices [14]. - **Outlook**: The pulp futures will mainly show a wide - range volatile trend. If it回调s to the previous low, it can be allocated long, and it is recommended to wait and see at high prices [14]. 3.1.10 Offset Printing Paper - **Current Situation**: Affected by the decline in raw material prices, the price of offset printing paper is under pressure. The overall social demand is weak, and paper enterprises may adjust supply and demand by reducing prices or production [15]. - **Outlook**: In the short term, it will be weakly stable [15]. 3.1.11 Logs - **Current Situation**: The supply may be reduced seasonally. The overseas shipping volume is expected to decline, and there are quarantine issues with Japanese cedar. The domestic demand support is insufficient, and the 01 contract has no clear driving force [15][17]. - **Outlook**: The log market will remain in a loose pattern, and attention can be paid to the opportunity of going long on the far - month contracts at low prices [17]. 3.2 Commodity Index - On December 8, 2025, the comprehensive index was 2267.05, down 0.18%; the commodity 20 index was 2588.87, down 0.37%; the industrial products index was 2216.09, down 0.16%; the agricultural products index was 930.18, with a daily decline of 0.22%, a 5 - day decline of 0.40%, a 1 - month decline of 0.65%, and a year - to - date decline of 2.57% [174][176].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - China's procurement demand supports the US market, and the domestic market is expected to be range - bound in the short term. Attention should be paid to South American weather. Without significant weather problems, the new - crop discount is expected to be under pressure in December and January due to the expected bumper harvest in Brazil, and the M05 contract is expected to be weak. The spread between M03 and M05 is expected to be in a long spread position, with the risk being the domestic reserve release situation [9]. - In terms of supply, the USDA's current forecast for US soybeans in the 2025/26 season is a yield of 53 bushels per acre and an ending inventory of 290 million bushels (corresponding to a stock - to - use ratio of 6.7%). The US soybean yield may be further revised down due to less rainfall in the production areas from August to September, and there is uncertainty in export adjustments. Attention should be paid to the results of the December USDA supply - demand report. The forecast for Brazil's new - crop production in the 2025/26 season is 177.6 million tons. As of November 29th, Brazil's soybean planting rate was 88%. As of November 26th, Argentina's 2025/26 soybean planting progress reached 36%. In December and January, domestic soybeans and soybean meal are expected to seasonally reduce inventory, and there is uncertainty in domestic soybean meal supply in the first quarter of next year [8][9]. - In terms of demand, livestock and poultry have maintained a high inventory in the short term, and capacity reduction is not obvious, supporting the demand for soybean meal. However, the breeding and slaughtering sectors are currently in a loss, and national policies tend to control the inventory and weight of live pigs, which may affect the long - term supply. Soybean meal has relatively high cost - effectiveness. Recently, the downstream transactions of soybean meal have been normal, and the提货 performance has been good [9]. - In terms of inventory, domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are at a high level compared to the same period in history. The reduction of soybean meal inventory is slow, and the pressure on spot supply is still high. It is expected that the inventory will be reduced more rapidly in December and January. This week, the number of days of soybean meal inventory for feed enterprises has increased slightly [9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Basis and Spread Data - The basis of the main soybean meal contract in Zhangjiagang on December 5th was 24. The basis of 43% soybean meal spot in different regions (Zhangjiagang, Tianjin, etc.) and the basis of rapeseed meal spot in Guangdong are also provided, along with the spread data such as M1 - M5, M1 - RM1, RM1 - 5, and the spot and futures spreads between soybean meal and rapeseed meal [4][5]. 3.2 International and Inventory Data - The CNF premium of Brazilian soybeans in 2025, the exchange rate of the US dollar against the RMB, and the crushing profit on the futures market are presented. The inventory data of soybeans at Chinese ports, the inventory of soybeans in major domestic oil mills, the number of days of soybean meal inventory for feed enterprises, and the inventory of soybean meal in major domestic oil mills are also included [5][7]. 3.3开机 and Pressing Situation - The data on the operating rate and soybean crushing volume of major domestic oil mills are provided [7].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Douyi: ★★★, indicating a clearer upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Doupo: ★☆☆, indicating a bullish bias, with a driving force for price increase but poor operability on the trading floor [1] - Douyou: ★★★, suggesting a clearer upward - trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Palm oil: ★★★, suggesting a clearer upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Caipo: ★☆☆, suggesting a bearish bias, with a driving force for price decline but poor operability on the trading floor [1] - Caiyou: ★☆☆, indicating a bearish bias, with a driving force for price decline but poor operability on the trading floor [1] - Corn: ★★★, suggesting a clearer upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Live pigs: ★☆☆, suggesting a bearish bias, with a driving force for price decline but poor operability on the trading floor [1] - Eggs: ★☆☆, suggesting a bearish bias, with a driving force for price decline but poor operability on the trading floor [1] Core Views - The overall performance of agricultural products in the market shows different trends, with some products affected by supply - demand relationships, policies, weather, and other factors [2][3][4] - Different agricultural products have different price trends, and investment strategies should be adjusted according to the specific situation of each product [3][7][8] Summary by Related Catalogs Douyi - The main contract of Douyi shows a reduction in positions and a price decline. The spot price of domestic soybeans is stable and firm. The price of US soybeans is affected by South American weather and US soybean exports, and is expected to fluctuate strongly in the medium - term. Short - term attention should be paid to the policy and spot performance of domestic soybeans [2] Soybeans & Doupo - The price of Dalian Doupo futures fluctuates weakly. Attention should be paid to the December USDA global agricultural product supply - demand report. The 05 contract has not broken through the upper edge of the box. Whether it can break through upward in the medium - term depends on US soybean exports and the impact of the La Nina weather in South America. The strategy is to observe whether it can break through upward and look for long - entry opportunities later [3] Douyou & Palm oil - The market expects that the palm oil inventory in Malaysia in November is still increasing, with high inventory pressure. If the supply - side production reduction continues, the signal of a phased price bottom will be prominent, but the rebound strength is limited. The medium - term of Douyou also needs to pay attention to policy changes. The domestic soybean crushing profit is improving. The overall view of soybean and palm oil is range - bound, and short - term attention should be paid to the fundamentals of the oil market [4] Caipo & Caiyou - The Caisi market continues its weak trend, and the external rapeseed price is under pressure. The production of Canadian rapeseed in 2025 is estimated to be higher than expected, and the supply of the Caisi market has temporarily eased after Australian rapeseed arrives at the port. The domestic demand for Caisi is still weak, and the futures price of Caisi will continue to fluctuate weakly in the short - term [6] Corn - The Dalian corn futures C2601 contract rose 0.97% after rising and then falling, but the subsequent contracts lack upward momentum. The supply - demand mismatch in the corn market still exists. Future attention should be paid to the sales progress of new corn in the Northeast and the auction of overdue wheat. The 01 contract should be observed first, and the 03 and 05 contracts should wait for a pullback [7] Live pigs - Live pig futures are running weakly, and the 03 contract has hit a new low. The inventory of breeding sows in November continued to decline slightly month - on - month. The southern curing will gradually start, and the supply side has the pressure of fattening pigs for secondary fattening to be sold. In the medium - to - long - term, the pig price is likely to form a second bottom in the first half of next year [8] Eggs - Egg futures are slightly weak, and the spot price in most parts of the country has declined. The current supply pressure is high, and the forward - looking inventory decline expectation has ended. The 01 contract has a premium over the spot, and a short - selling strategy is recommended for the near - term contract [9]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Bullish**: Soybean Meal, Eggs [1] - **Bearish**: None - **Neutral**: Soybean, Soybean Oil, Palm Oil, Rapeseed Meal, Rapeseed Oil, Corn, Live Pigs [1] Core Views - The overall outlook for agricultural products shows a mixed trend, with different factors influencing each commodity. The market is mainly affected by factors such as South American weather, exports, domestic supply and demand, and policies [2][3][4]. Summary by Commodity Soybean - The main contract of soybeans shows a reduction in positions and a decline in price. The domestic soybean spot price is stable and firm, while the US soybeans are expected to be volatile and bullish due to South American weather and export factors. Short - term attention should be paid to domestic policies and the spot market [2]. Soybean & Soybean Meal - Dalian soybean futures prices are weakly volatile. South American new - season Brazilian soybean sowing progress is normal, while Argentine soybean planting is slow due to weather. Domestic soybean supply is sufficient, but the profit of oil mill crushing is poor. Soybean meal inventory has returned to a high level, suppressing prices. Whether the 05 contract can break through the upper limit depends on US soybean exports and South American weather [3]. Soybean Oil & Palm Oil - Palm oil's rebound is restricted, and the market is in the process of position transfer. The market expects Malaysia's palm oil inventory to increase in November. If supply - side production cuts continue, the price may bottom out, but the rebound is limited by high inventory. For soybean oil, focus on policy changes, and the domestic soybean crushing profit is improving. Overall, the prices of soybean and palm oil are expected to fluctuate within a range [4]. Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil - Most rapeseed - related futures contracts declined, with only the near - month rapeseed meal contract being resistant to decline due to tight delivery resources. Rapeseed oil led the decline in the oil sector. Canadian rapeseed exports are weak, and its price is under pressure. The supply of rapeseed is expected to be more relaxed in the medium - term, and the short - term price of rapeseed - related products is under pressure but the decline space is limited [6]. Corn - Corn spot prices in the north and at northern ports remain firm, and futures are strong. Northeast new - grain supply is lower than expected, and there are concerns about supply and transportation. The 01 contract should be observed, while the 03 and 05 contracts should wait for a pull - back [7]. Live Pigs - Live pig futures and spot prices are weak, and the average spot slaughter price continues to decline. With the approaching of the winter solstice, southern curing will start, but there is also an exit pressure from second - fattened pigs. Historically, the bottom of the pig cycle often shows a double - bottom pattern, and it is expected that pig prices may form a second bottom in the first half of next year [8]. Eggs - The near - month January contract of eggs hit a new low, and the spot price is stable but weak. The long - position trend of the far - month contract is driven by the expectation of declining inventory, but the current valuation is high, and the spread between near - and far - month contracts is too large. The long - position trend is expected to end, and the near - month contract is bearish [9].

Investment Ratings - Douyi: ★★★ [1] - Soybean Oil: ★★★ [1] - Palm Oil: ★★★ [1] - Soybean Meal: ★☆☆ [1] - Rapeseed Meal: ★★★ [1] - Rapeseed Oil: ★★★ [1] - Corn: ★★★ [1] - Live Pigs: ★★★ [1] - Eggs: ☆☆☆ [1] Core Views - The domestic soybean market features high - quality products commanding high prices, with the price difference between domestic and imported soybeans fluctuating. Attention should be paid to the US soybean export situation in the short - term and the South American soybean产区 weather in the medium - term [2]. - The domestic soybean supply is sufficient, the crush volume has increased, and the soybean meal inventory has returned to a high level. Wait for the signing of the new China - US economic and trade agreement and track its implementation, and pay attention to South American weather changes [3]. - The overseas supply - demand situation of palm oil is still weak, but the marginal negative factors have eased. The soybean oil market shows a trend of reducing positions and rebounding. Pay attention to the US soybean price, export situation in the short - term and South American weather in the medium - term [4]. - The rapeseed futures show a pattern of meal rising and oil falling. The focus is on the clearance and crushing of Australian rapeseeds. It is advisable to maintain a wait - and - see attitude towards the rapeseed sector [6]. - The corn futures are oscillating strongly. Pay attention to the signing of the China - US trade agreement, the selling progress of new corn in the Northeast and the auction of overdue wheat [7]. - The pig industry's capacity reduction continues. The pig price is weakly adjusted. The pig price may form a second bottom in the first half of next year [8]. - The egg market trades on the expectation of a decline in future inventory. The medium - term supply pressure of the egg industry is expected to ease [9]. Summary by Category Douyi - The domestic soybean futures contract is actively reducing positions, with price oscillations and stable spot market quotations. The new - crop domestic soybean market adheres to the principle of high - quality products commanding high prices. The price difference between domestic and imported soybeans fluctuates. Monitor the domestic soybean spot market and policy guidance [2]. Soybean & Soybean Meal - The US soybean market is closed for Thanksgiving. The domestic soybean supply is sufficient, the crush volume has increased, and the soybean meal inventory has returned to a high level. Wait for the signing of the China - US economic and trade agreement and track its implementation, and pay attention to South American weather changes. Look for opportunities to go long at low prices [3]. Soybean Oil & Palm Oil - The high - frequency data of the Malaysian palm oil export market is still poor, and the inventory in the Indonesian market increased slightly in September. The marginal negative factors in the palm oil market have eased. The soybean oil market shows a trend of reducing positions and rebounding. Pay attention to the US soybean price, export situation in the short - term and South American weather in the medium - term [4]. Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil - The rapeseed futures show a pattern of meal rising and oil falling. The focus is on the clearance and crushing of Australian rapeseeds. The buying of ships is expected in the future. It is advisable to maintain a wait - and - see attitude towards the rapeseed sector [6]. Corn - The corn futures are oscillating strongly. The spot price of corn in the northern ports is firm and rising, and farmers are reluctant to sell. The downstream corn inventory is low, and the willingness to replenish inventory has increased. Wait for the signing of the China - US trade agreement, and pay attention to the selling progress of new corn in the Northeast and the auction of overdue wheat [7]. Live Pigs - The inventory of breeding sows decreased in October 2025. The pig industry's capacity reduction continues. The pig price is weakly adjusted. The pig price may form a second bottom in the first half of next year [8]. Eggs - The egg futures have significantly reduced positions, and the prices of the January contract and the distant - month July/August contracts have risen significantly. The medium - term supply pressure of the egg industry is expected to ease [9].