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金融工程周报:超预期偏鸽,利好港股核心资产-20250824
Huaxin Securities· 2025-08-24 07:30
Core Insights - The liquidity bull market in Chinese assets continues, with Hong Kong stocks lagging due to external influences and the US dollar, but the last factor affecting relative returns has been eliminated following Powell's dovish remarks at the Jackson Hole conference, suggesting a positive outlook for core Hong Kong assets [2][3] - The report recommends a focus on sectors such as non-bank financials, automotive, internet platforms, consumer goods, non-ferrous metals, and real estate in Hong Kong, with a preference for mid to large-cap growth stocks [2][3] - The strategy of style rotation has reached new highs, with a successful concentration on the ChiNext and small-cap indices in June and July, leading to a maintained growth style exposure while adjusting market capitalization exposure to mid and large-cap indices like CSI 300 and CSI 500 [2][3] A-Share Market Strategy - The A-share market is advised to maintain a medium position, with significant inflows from northbound capital into Hong Kong stocks, indicating a strong trend continuation probability before any overheating signals appear [7][44] - The report highlights the rapid rotation of sectors, with a focus on mid-cap growth indices and opportunities in AI software, domestic computing power, and robotics [44][51] Hong Kong Market Strategy - The Hong Kong market is upgraded to a higher position, supported by independent funding logic and significant net buying from southbound capital, particularly in non-bank financials, media, and pharmaceuticals [46][47] - The report notes that the absolute return of selected Hong Kong stocks has reached 71.18%, outperforming the Hang Seng Index by 44.86% [49] US Market Strategy - The US market position is adjusted to a medium level, with ongoing observations regarding the market's pricing of the September rate cut, following Powell's dovish signals [3][38] - The report identifies biopharmaceuticals as the primary beneficiaries of rate cuts, along with small-cap stocks sensitive to liquidity and economic recovery [3][41] Gold Market Strategy - Gold is upgraded to a higher position, with expectations of continued bullish sentiment leading up to the September FOMC meeting, as the market anticipates a rate cut [8][55] - The report emphasizes the ongoing increase in China's gold reserves, which reached 7,396 million ounces by the end of July 2025, marking a continuous increase for nine months [55][56]