春季行情可能缓步启动 ——策略周观点 [Table_ReportDate] 2026 年 1 月 4 日 请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披露 http://www.cindasc.com 1 证券研究报告 策略研究 [策略周报 Table_ReportType] 李畅 策略分析师 执业编号：S1500523070001 邮 箱： lichang@cindasc.com 徐国铨 策略研究助理 邮 箱：xuguoquan@cindasc.com [春季行情可能缓步启动 Table_Title] [Table_ReportDate] 2026 年 1 月 4 日 核心结论：2025 年 12 月下旬上证指数以"11 连阳"收官，主要受益于 风险偏好修复（主题表现强）和中证 A500 为主的 ETF 放量。元旦假期 期间港股走强，背后的原因除了南下资金布局，也有人民币升值、半导 体产业催化密集等逻辑，或有利于元旦后 A 股表现。我们认为春节前流 动性环境大概率较好，市场可能继续偏强，但 1 月可能会有一些波动。 春季躁动如果只是季节性博弈，一般 2 月的胜率赔率更高。市场在 Q1 较大波动的年份，均能观察到经济数据较大 ...

Group 1 - The core conclusion indicates that the buying power of institutional funds is expected to strengthen, with the Shanghai Composite Index achieving an "eight consecutive days of gains" and market trading volume recovering [2][8] - Positive factors catalyzing the year-end market rally include the rebound of US tech stocks, appreciation of the RMB, rising prices of non-ferrous metals (gold, silver, copper), and various themes in commercial aerospace [2][8] - The report emphasizes that the key factor driving the index to break through the upper range of the consolidation zone is the influx of incremental funds, particularly the gradual increase in institutional buying power [2][8] Group 2 - The appreciation of the RMB is beneficial for the return of overseas funds, with the RMB appreciating nearly 4% against the USD in 2025, and the offshore RMB/USD exchange rate breaking the "7" mark [9] - The report notes that the recent acceleration of inflows into stock ETFs indicates a significant increase in the net inflow scale of ETFs related to the CSI A500, suggesting that institutional funds are accelerating their layout [12][14] - The private equity fund management scale increased significantly by 1.04 trillion RMB in October 2025, reaching 7.0076 trillion RMB, and continued to rise to 7.0383 trillion RMB in November, indicating a potential important source of incremental funds for the market [14][15] Group 3 - The report highlights that there are currently no signs of accelerated inflows from resident incremental funds, but there is optimism for a seasonal surge in Q1, particularly in years when the Spring Festival is later [17][25] - The report suggests that the tactical foundation of the bull market remains solid, with the potential for a resonance between profit improvement and fund inflows [30][31] - The report recommends increasing allocations to value sectors and suggests that the technology sector typically shows significant excess returns during the spring market [36][37]

一、科创板新贵的华丽登场 作为一名浸-市场多年的量化投资者，我习惯用数据说话。当看到百奥赛图以519倍市盈率登陆科创板时，我的第一反应不是惊叹，而是立即调出了历史数据 比对。这种高估值在A股历史上实属罕见，但更值得玩味的是市场反应——网上投资者弃购率仅0.36%，显示出散户们对这只生物医药股的狂热追捧。 仔细研读招股书后，我发现几个关键数据： 这些数字背后暗藏玄机。作为一名量化派，我更关注的是机构资金的真实态度。通过我的交易系统监测发现，在上市前暗盘交易中，机构买单集中在25-27 元区间，而散户买单则普遍高于30元。这种分歧往往预示着后续走势的分化。 二、牛市中的"双面挨抽"困境 当下的市场让我想起2024年二季度的场景。当时上证指数从2800点一路飙升至3500点，表面看是普涨行情，但我的量化系统显示：超过60%的个股实际涨幅 不及指数的一半。这就是典型的"流动性牛市"特征——资金集中在少数标的，多数股票只是陪跑。 "千鼠万抗"计划确实带来了盈利拐点，2024年首次盈利3354万元 但研发投入占比从130%骤降至33%，研发人员缩减35% 模式动物销售仍占营收44%，单价三年仅上涨7% 我亲身经历过这种" ...

Group 1 - The report indicates that the current market is experiencing a liquidity-driven bull market, with the Shanghai Composite Index having risen approximately 15% in the second half of the year, despite weak macroeconomic fundamentals [1][4] - The report emphasizes the importance of transitioning from a liquidity-driven market to a fundamentals-driven market for sustained growth above the 4000-point level on the Shanghai Composite Index [1][4] - Historical analysis shows that significant year-end rallies typically require low valuations and improved liquidity conditions, with only three instances in the past decade where no rally occurred during this period [2][4] Group 2 - The report highlights that the market is currently in a "high-cut low" phase, where large-cap stocks have outperformed small-cap stocks, and this trend is expected to continue until a new main theme emerges [3][4] - It is noted that the performance of cyclical value stocks is expected to be strong leading into the year-end, particularly in resource and financial sectors, with a historical win rate of 70% for value stocks during this period [3][4] - The report suggests that the technology sector may see a rebound in January, as historical data indicates that growth stocks tend to perform better after the Lunar New Year [3][4] Group 3 - The report discusses the structural rotation in the market, indicating that the technology sector has been focusing on high-certainty trends, particularly in AI hardware, while software applications have lagged [3][4] - It is mentioned that the current high levels of technology stock valuations may lead to increased sensitivity to negative news, suggesting a cautious approach to investing in this sector [3][4] - The report also notes that the performance of the A-share technology sector is closely tied to global trends in AI and the performance of U.S. tech stocks, highlighting the need for careful monitoring of external signals [3][4]

跨年前后或是做多的窗口期 ——策略周观点 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 12 月 6 日 请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披露 http://www.cindasc.com 1 证券研究报告 策略研究 [策略周报 Table_ReportType] | 李畅 策略分析师 | | --- | | 执业编号：S1500523070001 | | 邮 箱： lichang@cindasc.com | 徐国铨 策略研究助理 邮 箱：xuguoquan@cindasc.com | 一、策略观点：跨年前后或是做多的窗口期 4 | | --- | | 二、本周市场变化 9 | | 风险因素 12 | [Table_Summary] 核心结论：本周市场继续震荡，成交缩量。海外流动性扰动持续对风险 偏好产生影响，日本央行释放出可能再次加息的信号，引发市场担忧套 息交易逆转风险上升。美元指数 11 月以来在 100 附近震荡，市场对美 联储 12 月降息预期的博弈陷入拉锯战。本轮缩量震荡时间偏长，主要 原因或在于，当前市场资金面中，稳定的买入力量更多在于中长期资金 和产业资本，局部板块快速轮动的行情较难驱动居民 ...

今日早盘，"A系列"指数窄幅震荡，截至午间收盘，中证A500指数上涨0.3%，中证A100指数、中证A50指数均上涨0.2%，A500ETF易方达（159361）半 日成交额约35亿元。 信达证券表示，当前支撑流动性牛市的基础依然坚实，后续可能有盈利全面改善和资金流入共振拉长牛市时间。战略上，业绩空窗期、经济数据偏弱和 海外市场调整均可能带来市场宽幅震荡过程中的波动，但年底到明年初仍可以布局政策或资金积极变化带来的上行机会。 每日经济新闻 （责任编辑：董萍萍 ） 【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点，与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立，不对所包含内容的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证。请 读者仅作参考，并请自行承担全部责任。邮箱：news_center@staff.hexun.com ...

Group 1 - The A500ETF fund (512050) has experienced a decline of 0.26% as of 9:38 AM on December 5, despite some of its holdings like Nanshan Aluminum and Jiangxi Copper performing well [1] - The fund has seen a net inflow of over 1.2 billion yuan in the last three days and a total of 2.4 billion yuan over the past ten days, indicating strong investor interest [1] - According to Xinda Securities, the foundation supporting the liquidity bull market remains solid, with potential for overall profit improvement and capital inflow to extend the bull market [1] Group 2 - The A500ETF fund (512050) offers investors a low fee rate of 0.2%, good liquidity with an average daily trading volume exceeding 5 billion yuan over the past month, and a large scale of over 20 billion yuan [2] - The fund tracks the CSI A500 Index and employs a dual strategy of industry balanced allocation and leading stock selection, covering all 35 sub-industries [2] - Investors are encouraged to consider related products such as the A500ETF fund (512050) and the A500 Enhanced ETF fund (512370) [2]

"A系列"指数今日开盘下探后持续反弹，截至午间收盘，中证A500指数上涨0.3%，中证A100指数、中证A50指数均上涨0.5%，A500ETF易方达 （159361）半日成交额达32亿元。 信达证券表示，当期支撑流动性牛市的基础依然坚实，后续可能有盈利全面改善和资金流入共振拉长牛市时间。战略上，业绩空窗期、经济数据偏弱和 海外市场调整均可能带来市场宽幅震荡过程中的波动，但年底到明年初仍可以布局政策或资金积极变化带来的上行机会。 每日经济新闻 （责任编辑：董萍萍 ） 【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点，与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立，不对所包含内容的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证。请 读者仅作参考，并请自行承担全部责任。邮箱：news_center@staff.hexun.com ...

Group 1 - The market is characterized by a slow bull trend with reduced volatility and improved Sharpe ratios compared to the past, but subjective long positions have limited improvement [1] - The current market structure shows an increase in allocation-type funds, but there is a lack of incremental funds with individual stock pricing power, leading to higher valuation and safety margin requirements for subjective long positions [1] - A significant change in domestic demand is needed to unlock market potential, with recommendations to focus on resource and traditional manufacturing sectors as well as companies expanding overseas [1] Group 2 - December is expected to be a favorable time for "profit-making effects," with a shift in market dynamics from low to high win rates around the Spring Festival and Two Sessions [2] - The average duration of the "spring market" is about 20 trading days, with a focus on sectors with positive earnings forecasts for the upcoming year [2] - Many sectors have already seen adjustments of around 20%, making December a good time to start observing potential investments [2] Group 3 - The cross-year market is supported by easing overseas disturbances and a warming expectation of global liquidity, with a focus on sectors with high growth forecasts for 2026 [3] - Key sectors to watch include AI, advantageous manufacturing, and structural recovery in domestic demand, with an emphasis on policy support and sustainable valuation recovery [3] - The technology sector is expected to lead the market rally, particularly in AI applications and domestic computing power industries [3] Group 4 - December is anticipated to mark the beginning of a cross-year market rally, with a high probability of upward movement following three months of consolidation [4] - Investment opportunities are expected to arise in non-bank financials and sectors influenced by upcoming policy directions from key meetings [4] - The dual focus on the Shanghai 50 and Sci-Tech 50 indices is seen as advantageous for capitalizing on the cross-year market [4] Group 5 - The market is expected to experience a cross-year rally, with a focus on technology growth and resource sectors [6] - Key industries to consider include non-ferrous metals, AI, new energy, and innovative pharmaceuticals [6] - The theme of commercial aerospace is highlighted as a significant area of interest [6] Group 6 - The A-share market is entering a critical policy observation window, with expectations of increased risk appetite and a favorable environment for cross-year market positioning [7] - Key sectors include commercial aerospace, AI applications, and military technology, which are expected to benefit from policy catalysts [7] - The focus on industries related to the "14th Five-Year Plan" is emphasized for investment opportunities [7] Group 7 - The cross-year and spring market strategies are highlighted as key focus areas for December, with policy factors being a core driver [8] - The market is expected to transition from value-driven to growth-driven dynamics, with small-cap stocks showing strong performance in recent years [8] - The upcoming Central Economic Work Conference is anticipated to provide new investment themes if specific industry proposals are introduced [8] Group 8 - The current A-share market is assessed as being in a high-cut-low phase, with expectations of continued volatility until the end of the year [9] - The market's ability to break through the 4000-point level is seen as crucial for future performance, with a need for a transition from liquidity-driven to fundamentals-driven growth [9] - The technology sector is expected to remain sensitive to market conditions, with a focus on resource sectors as potential winners [9] Group 9 - The market is currently in a "slow bull" phase, with significant room for growth, but short-term volatility is expected due to a lack of strong catalysts [10] - Defensive and consumer sectors are recommended for short-term focus, while TMT and advanced manufacturing sectors are highlighted for mid-term investment [10] - The market is anticipated to remain in a consolidation phase, with high-dividend and consumer sectors likely to perform better [10] Group 10 - The foundation supporting the current liquidity-driven bull market remains solid, with potential for improved earnings and capital inflows to extend the bull market [11] - The market may experience volatility due to weak economic data and adjustments in overseas markets, but opportunities for upward movement are expected as policies and funding conditions improve [11] - The focus on clearing capacity and inventory, along with the commercialization of emerging industries like AI, is seen as crucial for market health [11]

Core Insights - The 2025 Analyst Conference highlighted the importance of a multi-layered decision-making framework for understanding China's economic landscape, emphasizing that economic growth is now the fourth priority in a four-tiered model [1][3][5]. Group 1: Four-Tier Decision Framework - The four tiers of the decision-making framework are: US-China relations (determining risk appetite), social stability (defining policy bottom line), structural transformation (guiding industry direction), and economic growth (setting bottom line speed) [3][5]. - Investors are cautioned against relying solely on GDP as a predictive model, as it has become ineffective [3][5]. Group 2: Economic Outlook for 2026 - The focus for 2026 will be on maintaining necessary economic growth during structural transformation, with exports being a key driver due to China's competitive advantage [3][5][6]. - The market is expected to experience a liquidity-driven bull market starting in 2026, following a three-year delay [3][7]. Group 3: Asset Allocation Strategies - Two main categories benefiting from declining interest rates are technology and dividend stocks, which appeal to different risk appetites [3][7]. - The strategy for asset allocation should involve dynamic rebalancing between technology and dividend stocks based on the state of US-China relations [3][7].