Group 1 - The report highlights a high probability of style switching in A-shares around the Spring Festival, with a historical tendency for value and large-cap stocks to dominate before the festival, while growth and small-cap stocks tend to perform better afterward [1][8][23] - From 2010 to 2025, there were only two years (2020 and 2022) without a clear switch between growth and value styles, indicating a strong historical pattern of style rotation [8][18] - The report identifies that in 62.5% of the years analyzed, there was a significant switch from large-cap to small-cap stocks after the Spring Festival, suggesting a high likelihood of this trend continuing [1][8] Group 2 - Historical analysis shows that the sectors leading in performance before the Spring Festival often do not repeat their success in the following month, indicating a high probability of sector rotation [2][8] - The report notes that in years where value stocks led after the Spring Festival (2011, 2016, 2021), there were common factors such as liquidity tightening or unexpected risk events that suppressed growth stocks [2][23] - The macro environment in 2015 and 2019, characterized by ample liquidity and weak fundamentals, is compared to the upcoming 2026 Spring Festival, suggesting potential for similar market dynamics [2][3] Group 3 - The report assesses that the current market style is shifting towards value before the 2026 Spring Festival, with technology and growth stocks receding [3][4] - It suggests that if the value style continues post-festival, it will be driven by expectations of domestic economic recovery and policy support, although there are concerns regarding inflation metrics [3][4] - The analysis indicates that the performance of small-cap stocks is expected to rebound significantly after the Spring Festival, driven by liquidity recovery and risk appetite [18][19]

Market Overview - The A-share market opened high and rose, with Wind All A Index increasing by 1.89% and a trading volume of 2.27 trillion yuan [9] - The communication sector led the gains, with the CSI 1000 Index up by 2.26%, CSI 500 Index up by 2.02%, CSI 300 Index up by 1.63%, and SSE 50 Index up by 1.45% [9] Economic Policies - Recent economic adjustment policies have been introduced, providing fundamental support for the indices [9] - The National Development and Reform Commission announced plans to establish a national-level merger fund, regulate local economic promotion behaviors, and advance significant projects in high-tech industries during the 14th Five-Year Plan [9] Monetary Policy - The central bank lowered various structural monetary policy tool rates by 25 basis points, aimed at supporting specific financing needs in sectors like technological innovation and carbon reduction [9] - This rate cut is expected to guide funds into relevant sectors, boosting valuations and reducing financing costs in the long term [9] Market Sentiment - The Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges announced an increase in the minimum margin ratio for margin trading from 80% to 100%, indicating increased risk aversion among investors [9] - The market is entering a high volatility phase, with a cautious approach recommended for short-term trading [9] Bond Market - The bond futures market showed positive movement, with the 30-year main contract up by 0.14% and the 10-year main contract up by 0.06% [10] - The central bank conducted a 1130 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation, maintaining a stable liquidity environment [10] Inflation and Economic Indicators - The 10-year treasury yield has fallen below the 1.8% mark, with low expectations for further rate cuts and concerns over inflation data impacting the bond market [10] - The PMI price index is expected to maintain positive month-on-month growth, with a narrowing year-on-year decline in PPI anticipated [10] Precious Metals - The London spot precious metals market experienced fluctuations, with the gold-silver ratio dropping to around 61.3 and the platinum-palladium spread decreasing to 376 USD/oz [11] - U.S. Treasury Secretary's comments suggest a cautious approach to monetary policy, which may alleviate market concerns about aggressive tightening [11] - Geopolitical tensions in the Gulf region continue to pose risks, impacting market predictions for precious metals [11]

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced a decline, with the Wind All A index dropping by 1.11% and a trading volume of 2.19 trillion yuan [3][9] - The CSI 1000 index fell by 1.69%, the CSI 500 index by 1.84%, the CSI 300 index by 0.6%, and the SSE 50 index by 0.33% [3][9] - Consumer and financial sectors showed strength despite the overall market downturn [3][9] Economic Policies - Recent economic adjustment policies have been introduced to support the market fundamentals [3][10] - The National Development and Reform Commission announced plans to establish a national-level merger fund and to regulate local economic promotion behaviors [10] - A series of significant projects in high-tech industries are being planned for the 14th Five-Year Plan period [10] Monetary Policy - The central bank lowered various structural monetary policy tool rates by 25 basis points [10] - This rate cut aims to provide targeted financial support for specific sectors, including technology innovation, inclusive elderly care, and carbon reduction [10] - The adjustment is expected to guide funds into relevant sectors, enhancing their valuations and reducing financing costs in the long term [10] Market Sentiment - The Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges announced an increase in the minimum margin ratio for margin trading from 80% to 100% [10] - This change has led to increased risk aversion among investors, resulting in a high volatility market environment [10] Bond Market - The bond futures market showed gains, with the 30-year main contract rising by 0.38% and the 10-year main contract by 0.08% [11] - The central bank conducted a reverse repurchase operation of 300 billion yuan for 14 days and 118.5 billion yuan for 7 days [11] - The money market rates, such as DR001 and DR007, showed slight declines, indicating a stable liquidity environment [11][12] Precious Metals - London spot gold and silver prices weakened, with the gold-silver ratio slightly falling to around 56 [12] - The platinum-palladium price spread increased to approximately 491 USD/ounce [12] - Market sentiment was affected by geopolitical tensions and economic data, leading to increased volatility in precious metals [12]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The A - share market fluctuated and then rose, with the Wind All - A index up 0.45% and a trading volume of 2.5 trillion yuan, and the pro - cyclical sectors were strong. The CSI 1000 index fell 0.02%, the CSI 500 index rose 0.15%, the SSE 300 index rose 0.83%, and the SSE 50 index rose 1.14%. Recent economic control policies provide fundamental support for the index. The central bank's interest rate cut on structural monetary policy tools helps guide funds into relevant sectors and push up valuations in the long - term. The adjustment of the minimum margin ratio for margin trading increases risk - aversion sentiment, and the market enters a high - level shock mode with increased short - term volatility [1]. - On Wednesday, the 30 - year Treasury bond futures main contract fell 0.23%, the 10 - year main contract fell 0.01%, the 5 - year main contract fell 0.04%, and the 2 - year main contract fell 0.02%. After the central bank's structural interest rate cut, the fiscal policy continues to exert force. Against the background of continuous introduction of growth - stabilizing policies, the bond market lacks the impetus for continuous strengthening, and the pattern of interest rate range fluctuations continues [1][2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Stock Index Futures**: The market is in a shock state. The recent economic control policies from various departments support the index. The central bank's interest rate cut on structural monetary policy tools is beneficial to relevant sectors. The adjustment of the margin ratio for margin trading increases market volatility, and it is advisable to be cautious about chasing high prices and mainly wait and see [1]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The market is in a shock state. After the central bank's structural interest rate cut, the fiscal policy continues to exert force. The bond market lacks the impetus for continuous strengthening, and the interest rate range - shock pattern continues [1][2]. 3.2 Daily Price Changes | Category | Instrument | 2026 - 02 - 04 | 2026 - 02 - 03 | Change | Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Stock Index Futures | IH | 3,071.8 | 3,033.0 | 38.8 | 1.28% | | | IF | 4,693.6 | 4,653.0 | 40.6 | 0.87% | | | IC | 8,313.6 | 8,282.0 | 31.6 | 0.38% | | | IM | 8,203.4 | 8,183.0 | 20.4 | 0.25% | | Stock Index | SSE 50 | 3,069.2 | 3,034.6 | 34.7 | 1.14% | | | SSE 300 | 4,698.7 | 4,660.1 | 38.6 | 0.83% | | | CSI 500 | 8,299.1 | 8,286.7 | 12.4 | 0.15% | | | CSI 1000 | 8,207.1 | 8,209.1 | - 2.0 | - 0.02% | | Treasury Bond Futures | TS | 102.40 | 102.41 | - 0.016 | - 0.02% | | | TF | 105.85 | 105.91 | - 0.055 | - 0.05% | | | T | 108.24 | 108.26 | - 0.02 | - 0.02% | | | TL | 111.70 | 111.96 | - 0.26 | - 0.23% | [3] 3.3 Market News On February 3, the Ministry of Housing and Urban - Rural Development and the Communist Youth League Central Committee held a symposium. The Minister of the Ministry of Housing and Urban - Rural Development, Ni Hong, said that it is necessary to ensure the basic housing needs of young people through measures such as "a bed, a room, a set of housing" to make young people stay and start businesses. On one hand, it is necessary to develop rental - type affordable housing and public rental housing; on the other hand, for young people with certain economic affordability, develop affordable housing for sale [4]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - **Stock Index Futures**: There are charts showing the trends of IH, IF, IM, IC main contracts and their monthly basis trends [5][6][7][8][9][10]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: There are charts showing the trends of Treasury bond futures main contracts, Treasury bond spot yields, basis, inter - period spreads, cross - variety spreads, and capital interest rates [12][13][16][17][18]. - **Exchange Rates**: There are charts showing the central parity rates of the US dollar, euro against the RMB, forward exchange rates, the US dollar index, and exchange rates between different currencies [20][21][22][23][25][26].

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced fluctuations before rising, with Wind All A Index increasing by 0.45% and a trading volume of 2.5 trillion yuan [10] - The cyclical sectors showed strong performance, while the CSI 1000 Index fell by 0.02%, the CSI 500 Index rose by 0.15%, the CSI 300 Index increased by 0.83%, and the SSE 50 Index rose by 1.14% [10] Economic Policies - Recent economic adjustment policies have been introduced, providing fundamental support for the indices [10] - The National Development and Reform Commission announced plans to establish a national-level merger fund, regulate local economic promotion behaviors, and advance significant high-tech projects during the 14th Five-Year Plan [10] Monetary Policy - The central bank lowered various structural monetary policy tool rates by 25 basis points, aiming to support specific financing needs in sectors like technological innovation and carbon reduction [10] - This rate cut is expected to guide funds into relevant sectors, boosting valuations and reducing financing costs in the long term [10] Market Sentiment - The Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges announced an increase in the minimum margin ratio for margin trading from 80% to 100%, indicating a rise in risk-averse sentiment among investors [10] - The market is currently in a high-level fluctuation mode, with increased short-term volatility, suggesting a cautious approach is advisable [10] Bond Market - On Wednesday, government bond futures closed with the 30-year main contract down by 0.23%, the 10-year down by 0.01%, the 5-year down by 0.04%, and the 2-year down by 0.02% [11] - The central bank conducted a 750 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation with a bid rate of 1.4%, maintaining the same rate as the previous operation [11] Precious Metals - Overnight, London spot gold and silver experienced a pullback, while platinum and palladium showed slight increases [12] - The gold-silver ratio slightly decreased to around 56, and the platinum-palladium price difference rose to approximately 491 USD/ounce [12] - The U.S. ISM services PMI for January was reported at 53.8, matching the highest level since October 2024, but new orders showed signs of slowing down [12]

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced a rebound, with Wind All A Index rising by 2.12% and a trading volume of 2.57 trillion yuan, while most sectors, excluding finance, saw gains [9] - The CSI 1000 Index increased by 2.93%, the CSI 500 Index by 3.11%, the CSI 300 Index by 1.18%, and the SSE 50 Index by 1.05% [9] Economic Policies - Recent economic adjustment policies have been introduced, providing fundamental support for the indices, including the establishment of a national-level merger fund and the regulation of local economic promotion behaviors [9] - The National Development and Reform Commission announced plans to advance significant projects in high-tech industries during the 14th Five-Year Plan period [9] Monetary Policy - The central bank lowered the interest rates of various structural monetary policy tools by 25 basis points, aimed at supporting specific financing needs in sectors like technological innovation and carbon reduction [9] - This rate cut is expected to guide funds into relevant sectors, enhancing their valuations and reducing financing costs in the long term [9] Market Sentiment - The Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges announced an increase in the minimum margin ratio for margin trading from 80% to 100%, indicating a rise in risk-averse sentiment among investors [9] - The market is currently in a high volatility phase, with increased caution advised for investors considering high-risk positions [9] Bond Market - In the bond market, the 30-year main contract fell by 0.10%, while the 10-year, 5-year, and 2-year contracts saw slight increases [10] - The central bank conducted a 1,055 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation with a stable interest rate of 1.4%, indicating a net withdrawal of 2,965 billion yuan from the market [10] Precious Metals - The London spot precious metals market saw a significant rebound, with the gold-silver ratio rising to 58.5 and the platinum-palladium spread increasing to 476 USD/ounce [11] - Geopolitical tensions in the Gulf region have escalated, impacting market volatility and creating uncertainty in price trends for precious metals [11] - Caution is advised in trading, with a focus on gold as a stabilizing factor in the sector, while silver and platinum may face challenges in establishing independent trends [11]

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced a significant pullback, with the Wind All A index declining by 2.71% and a trading volume of 2.61 trillion yuan [10] - The non-ferrous metals sector led the decline, with the CSI 1000 index down 3.39%, the CSI 500 index down 3.98%, the CSI 300 index down 2.13%, and the SSE 50 index down 2.07% [10] Economic Policies - Recent economic adjustment policies have been introduced to support the market, including the establishment of a national-level merger fund and the regulation of local economic promotion behaviors [10] - The National Development and Reform Commission announced plans to advance significant projects in high-tech industries during the 14th Five-Year Plan period [10] Monetary Policy - The central bank lowered the interest rates of various structural monetary policy tools by 25 basis points, aimed at supporting specific financing needs in sectors like technological innovation and carbon reduction [10] - This rate cut is expected to guide funds into relevant sectors, enhancing their valuations and reducing financing costs in the long term [10] Market Sentiment - The Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges have raised the minimum margin ratio for margin trading from 80% to 100%, indicating increased risk aversion among investors [10] - The market is currently in a high volatility phase, with a cautious approach recommended for investors [10] Bond Market - The 30-year bond futures contract rose by 0.18%, while the 10-year, 5-year, and 2-year contracts showed slight declines [11] - The central bank conducted a 750 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation, maintaining a stable interest rate of 1.4% [11] - The bond market's upward momentum is limited due to ongoing fiscal policies and structural interest rate adjustments [11] Precious Metals - The London spot precious metals market showed a slight recovery, but overall performance remained weak, with domestic silver and platinum-palladium futures hitting the limit down [12] - The gold-silver ratio rose to 58.1, and the platinum-palladium price difference narrowed to 404 USD/ounce [12] - The recent volatility in the precious metals market is attributed to forced liquidation due to extreme overbuying, but long-term support factors remain intact [12]

Group 1 - The core conclusion indicates that since the launch of the spring market in mid-December 2025, the market has experienced two phases: from December 17, 2025, to January 12, 2026, there was a rapid inflow of leveraged funds and ETF purchases, leading to a significant rise in the Shanghai Composite Index by 8.9% and a sharp increase in turnover rate. From January 13 to January 30, 2026, the market saw a correction due to policy guidance cooling down, with a large outflow from broad-based ETFs and a decline in the index by 1.14% [3][9][10] - The report identifies two internal reasons for the short-term adjustment: first, the market tends to experience fluctuations or corrections after rapid increases in turnover rates, as seen in previous bull markets. Second, the trading volume of certain sectors, particularly non-ferrous metals, reached a high level, increasing internal adjustment pressure [4][10][14] - February is expected to continue the second half of the spring market, as it typically has the highest win rate during this period. Potential positive factors for incremental funds include increased allocation of equity assets by insurance funds, the maturity of fixed deposits, a rebound in public fund issuance, private fund replenishment, and foreign capital inflow [4][16][21] Group 2 - The report suggests that in February, small-cap growth stocks usually outperform, with a focus on themes rather than industries. High-elasticity growth themes, such as military and AI applications, may still perform well after a phase of profit-taking [4][16][24] - The analysis emphasizes the importance of mid-term logical directions in the industrial sector, indicating that after short-term valuation adjustments, there may be strong mid-term sustainability [4][16][24] - The report highlights that the current bull market is supported by a favorable liquidity environment, with potential for continued strong performance in the market, despite some expected volatility [21][24][25]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Index futures: Volatile [1] - Treasury bond futures: Relatively strong [2] 2. Core Views of the Report - The A - share market continued to fluctuate, with the Wind All - A index down 0.23% and a trading volume of 3.26 trillion yuan. The food and beverage sector led the gains. Various economic control policies have provided fundamental support for the index. The central bank's interest rate cut on structural monetary policy tools helps guide funds into relevant sectors and push up valuations. The market has entered a high - level volatile mode, and short - term fluctuations have increased. In the medium and long term, the risk of a significant decline in the index is low [1]. - Treasury bond futures closed higher. The central bank conducted reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net injection of funds. In the short term, due to the continuous introduction of growth - stabilizing policies, the bond market lacks the impetus for continuous strengthening, and the pattern of interest rate range - bound fluctuations continues [2]. 3. Summary by Directory Research Views Index Futures - Yesterday, the A - share market fluctuated. The CSI 1000 index fell 0.8%, the CSI 500 index fell 0.97%, the SSE 300 index rose 0.76%, and the SSE 50 index rose 1.65%. Recent economic control policies have provided fundamental support. The central bank's interest rate cut on structural monetary policy tools helps guide funds into relevant sectors. The adjustment of the minimum margin ratio for margin trading has increased risk - aversion sentiment, and the market has entered a high - level volatile mode [1]. Treasury Bond Futures - Yesterday, treasury bond futures closed higher. The central bank conducted 354 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net injection of 143.8 billion yuan. In the short term, the bond market lacks the impetus for continuous strengthening, and the interest rate range - bound fluctuation pattern continues [2] Daily Price Changes - For stock index futures: IH rose 1.97%, IF rose 1.08%, IC fell 1.21%, and IM fell 0.58%. For stock indexes: the SSE 50 rose 1.65%, the SSE 300 rose 0.76%, the CSI 500 fell 0.97%, and the CSI 1000 fell 0.80%. For treasury bond futures: TS remained unchanged, TF rose 0.00%, T rose 0.04%, and TL rose 0.07% [3] Market News - In the context of interest rate decline and the "relocation" of residents' deposits, "fixed - income +" funds have become popular again. As of the end of 2025, the scale of "fixed - income +" funds reached 2.74 trillion yuan, a record high, and secondary bond funds contributed the main increment. In 2026, "fixed - income +" products are still expected to be an important tool for funds to enter the market [5] Chart Analysis Stock Index Futures - The report provides the trends of IH, IF, IM, IC main contracts, and the monthly basis trends of IH, IF, IC, IM [7][8][9][10][11] Treasury Bond Futures - The report shows the trends of treasury bond futures main contracts, treasury bond spot yields, the basis of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures, the inter - period spreads of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures, cross - variety spreads, and capital interest rates [14][15][16][18][19][22] Exchange Rates - The report presents the central parity rates of the US dollar against the RMB, the euro against the RMB, the 1 - month and 3 - month forward exchange rates of the US dollar and the euro against the RMB, the US dollar index, the euro against the US dollar, the pound against the US dollar, and the US dollar against the Japanese yen [24][25][26][28][29]

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced continued fluctuations, with Wind All A index down by 0.23% and a trading volume of 3.26 trillion yuan, while the food and beverage sector led the gains [9] - The CSI 1000 index fell by 0.8%, the CSI 500 index decreased by 0.97%, the CSI 300 index rose by 0.76%, and the SSE 50 index increased by 1.65% [9] Economic Policies - Recent economic adjustment policies have been introduced, providing fundamental support for the indices, including the establishment of a national-level merger fund and the regulation of local economic promotion behaviors [9] - The National Development and Reform Commission announced plans to advance significant high-tech industry projects during the 14th Five-Year Plan period [9] Monetary Policy - The central bank lowered the interest rates of various structural monetary policy tools by 25 basis points, aimed at supporting specific financing needs in sectors like technological innovation and carbon reduction [9] - This rate cut is expected to guide funds into relevant sectors, enhancing their valuations and reducing financing costs in the long term [9] Market Sentiment - The recent adjustment in the margin requirement for financing securities from 80% to 100% has increased risk-averse sentiment among investors, leading to a high-level fluctuation mode in the market [9] - The current bull market is driven by breakthroughs in technology sectors and geopolitical uncertainties, with a low risk of significant index declines in the medium to long term [9] Bond Market - The bond futures market saw slight increases, with the 30-year main contract up by 0.07% and the 10-year main contract up by 0.06% [10] - The central bank conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 354 billion yuan at an interest rate of 1.4%, maintaining a stable liquidity environment [10][11] Precious Metals - Gold prices reached a peak of 5,594 USD/ounce before a rapid decline, indicating high market bullish sentiment but also the risk of profit-taking [11] - The gold-silver ratio is around 46.2, with significant volatility expected in silver prices, while platinum and palladium are experiencing high-level fluctuations [11]