Group 1 - The core conclusion indicates that recent market and policy focus on de-capacity and anti-involution may signify the late stage of the overcapacity cycle, with market-driven capacity reduction already underway, regardless of policy [2][10][11] - Since 2021, the continuous decline in corporate revenue has led to a cumulative year-on-year negative growth in capital expenditure across the entire A-share market, marking the longest period of negative growth since 2005 [10][11] - De-capacity is a crucial part of the capacity cycle, but its short-term impact on profitability is limited if demand does not show a turning point; supply policies mainly affect the height of future price reversals rather than the direction of prices [10][11] Group 2 - The process of de-capacity typically follows three steps: declining revenue and profits lead to reduced capital expenditure, which subsequently results in a decrease in capacity growth [3][11] - The effects of de-capacity are often only visible when demand improves; during periods of declining industry prices, the supply-demand balance tends to be in a low-cost zone, meaning most companies are losing money [15][17] - The current overcapacity is primarily driven by the decline in the real estate sector since 2021, with a need to monitor whether a second demand decline similar to 2014-2015 will occur [18][21] Group 3 - The current judgment suggests a strategic outlook similar to 2013 and 2019, with a high probability of developing into a comprehensive bull market, although tactical indicators may require time to break through the recent trading range [23][24] - The market is expected to experience fluctuations in July, but a return to a bull market is anticipated in the latter part of Q3 or Q4, contingent on either earnings or policy turning optimistic [23][24] - Recent configuration suggestions include a focus on value in the short term, with potential increases in exposure to elastic industries after Q3 [26][29]

| 证券代码 | 证券名称 | | 区间漆跌幅 | | | 区间涨跌幅 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | [起始交易日期] | 20250102 | | [起始交易日期] | 20240101 | | | | | | [截止交易日期] | 20250506 | | [截止交易日期 | 20241231 | | | | | | [中国] 豪 | | | [dr (x) * | | | | HSTECH.HK | | 恒生科技指数 ☑ | | | 17.2643 | | | 18.6973 | | 31574CNY00.CSI | | 港股科技CNY | | | 22.7154 | | | 20.7522 | 指数强势推动ETF持续表现。5月7日午盘收盘，热门T+0品种$港股科技50ETF(SZ159750)$换手率高达 25%，两融标的交投十分活跃。数据显示，该ETF2025年年内涨幅高达24%，份额增长了300%！ | 证券代码 | 证券名称 | | 区间涨跌幅 | | 基金份额变化率 | | | | - ...