Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. 2. Core View - Policy support is expected to boost the pig market, while the corn market is facing downward pressure with limited upward potential on the futures price [2][3][7]. 3. Summary by Category Pig Market - Futures: The LH2511 contract closed at 13,840 yuan/ton, down 0.5% from the previous week's settlement price [3]. - Spot: The national average price of ternary pigs was 13.82 yuan/kg, up 0.02 yuan/kg week-on-week [3]. - Profit: As of August 22, the profit of self - breeding and self - raising pigs was 33.95 yuan/head, an increase of 33.95 yuan/head week - on - week; the profit of purchasing piglets for fattening was - 151.8 yuan/head, an increase of 5.25 yuan/head week - on - week; the pig - grain ratio was 5.84, unchanged week - on - week [3]. - Market Situation: Pig prices were volatile last week with regional differences. Southern prices rose slightly due to second - fattening and transportation, while northern prices weakened due to increased supply and limited demand. Policy support from potential state reserve purchases and improved demand from the start of the school season in late August are expected to support prices [3]. Corn Market - Futures: The C2511 contract closed at 2,175 yuan/ton, down 0.78% from the previous week's settlement price [5]. - Spot: The national average spot price of corn was 2,381.96 yuan/ton, down 12.16 yuan/ton week - on - week. Port prices also declined [5]. - Industrial Consumption: From August 14 - 20, 2025, 149 major corn deep - processing enterprises consumed 113.62 million tons of corn, down 0.45 million tons week - on - week. Corn starch production and开机率 decreased, while the DDGS industry开机率 and production increased [6]. - Inventory: As of August 20, the corn inventory of 96 major processing enterprises in 12 regions was 3.147 billion tons, a decrease of 7.5%. As of August 22, the total corn inventory in four northern ports was about 1.5 billion tons, and in Guangdong ports it was 750 million tons [6]. - Market Situation: The corn spot market was weak last week. Supply increased due to import auctions and rotation sales in the Northeast, and increased arrivals in the North China. Demand was affected by equipment maintenance in starch plants and remained at a rigid level in feed enterprises. The futures price rebounded slightly but the upward space is limited [7].

Core Viewpoint - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) announced plans to conduct central frozen pork reserve storage to stabilize pork prices amid a declining trend in pork prices since early July 2023 [1][3][11]. Price Trends and Influencing Factors - Since early July, pork prices have been on a downward trend, primarily due to weak demand and market sentiment, alongside increased supply from earlier pig fattening [3][4]. - The national average pig-to-grain price ratio has fallen below 6:1, entering a warning zone as per the government's monitoring [3][9]. - As of August 21, the average price of external three-yuan pigs has dropped to 13.82 yuan per kilogram, a decrease of 4.2% month-on-month and 33% year-on-year [7][10]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - On the supply side, the number of breeding sows remains high, with 40.43 million sows reported, exceeding normal levels by 3.7% [7]. - Demand remains weak despite some seasonal boosts from events like school openings, as high temperatures have kept pork consumption low [8]. Government Intervention and Market Impact - The government plans to store 10,000 tons of frozen pork, which is expected to alleviate supply pressure and stabilize prices temporarily [11][14]. - This storage initiative is seen as a signal to boost market confidence and prevent panic selling, benefiting both producers and consumers [14]. Future Outlook - In the short term, pork prices are expected to fluctuate at low levels, with potential improvements in consumption as temperatures cool down [14]. - In the medium to long term, the industry may face a turning point in pig output by mid-2026, transitioning to a new cycle characterized by smaller fluctuations and stable profitability [14].