财达期货｜生猪玉米周报 财达期货｜生猪、玉米周报 2025-08-25 研究员 F3046737 Z0015545 上周生猪期货先抑后扬，LH2511 合约报收 13840 元/吨，较前 周结算价下跌 0.5%。 姓名：田金莲 从业资格号： 现货方面，全国外三元生猪市场价为 13.82 元/公斤，环比上 涨 0.02 元/公斤。利润方面，截至 8 月 22 日，自繁自养生猪养殖 利润为 33.95 元/头，环比增加 33.95 元/头；外购仔猪养殖利润为 -151.8 元/头，环比增加 5.25 元/头；猪粮比价为 5.84，周环比持 平。 投资咨询号： 上周全国生猪价格整体震荡运行，但市场仍表现区域分化。南 方地区受二育以及调运等支撑，生猪价格小幅上涨，北方地区养殖 企业出栏增量，但需求支撑有限，生猪价格继续走弱。目前猪价持 续磨底，养殖端抗价情绪升温，局部二育少量入场支撑行情。政策 方面，据国家发展改革委监测，近日全国平均猪粮比价跌至 6∶1 以下，按照《完善政府猪肉储备调节机制做好猪肉市场保供稳价工 作预案》规定，进入三级预警区间。为促进生猪市场平稳运行，近 期国家发展改革委将会同有关部门开展中央冻猪肉 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - The short - term price of live pigs has some support, but it is still under pressure later; the corn price is supported in the short - term but has limited upside space with pressure on the upper side of the market and may fluctuate at a low level in the short - term [5][8] Summary by Related Catalogs Live Pigs - Last week, the live pig futures showed a weak trend. The LH2509 contract closed at 14,055 yuan/ton, a 2.63% drop from the previous week's settlement price. The national average market price of outer ternary live pigs was 14.26 yuan/kg, a week - on - week decrease of 0.55 yuan/kg. As of August 1st, the self - breeding and self - raising profit was 43.85 yuan/head, a week - on - week decrease of 18.31 yuan/head; the profit of purchasing piglets for breeding was - 116.78 yuan/head, a week - on - week decrease of 45.39 yuan/head; the pig - grain ratio was 5.93, a week - on - week decrease of 0.09 [5] - The national live pig spot market first declined and then stabilized last week. In the short term, downstream consumption has no obvious positive factors, and the demand boost is limited. At the beginning of the month, the enterprise's slaughter pressure weakens, and the breeding end mainly controls the quantity and stabilizes the price. After continuous market decline, second - fattening inquiries have started in some areas, providing short - term support for live pig prices. However, as breeding enterprises resume slaughter, live pig prices are still expected to be under pressure [5] Corn - Last week, the corn futures fluctuated weakly. The C2509 contract closed at 2,297 yuan/ton, a 0.73% drop from the previous week's settlement price. The national average spot price of corn was 2,402.75 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 5.09 yuan/ton. Port prices in some areas showed a slight decline [6] - From July 24th to July 31st, 2025, 149 major corn deep - processing enterprises consumed 1.1377 million tons of corn, a week - on - week increase of 75,300 tons. The processing volume of corn starch enterprises was 545,100 tons, an increase of 43,600 tons from the previous week; the weekly national corn starch output was 267,800 tons, an increase of 32,600 tons from the previous week; the weekly operating rate was 51.76%, a 6.3% increase from the previous week. The operating rate of the DDGS industry increased, with the weekly output increasing by 8.20% [7] - As of July 30th, 2025, the total corn inventory of 96 major corn processing enterprises in 12 regions was 3.797 million tons, a decrease of 5.19%. As of August 1st, the total corn inventory of the four northern ports was about 2.06 million tons, and the corn inventory in Guangdong ports was 830,000 tons [7][8] - The national corn spot market first rose and then fell last week. The remaining grain inventory decreased significantly year - on - year, providing short - term supply support for corn prices. However, it is rumored that the directional rice auction may resume in August, which will help ease the tight supply of the corn market and limit the upside space of corn prices. The market is under pressure on the upper side and may fluctuate at a low level in the short term [8]