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生猪、玉米周报:政策利多支撑生猪市场,玉米盘面关注下方支撑-20250825
Cai Da Qi Huo· 2025-08-25 07:22
Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. 2. Core View - Policy support is expected to boost the pig market, while the corn market is facing downward pressure with limited upward potential on the futures price [2][3][7]. 3. Summary by Category Pig Market - Futures: The LH2511 contract closed at 13,840 yuan/ton, down 0.5% from the previous week's settlement price [3]. - Spot: The national average price of ternary pigs was 13.82 yuan/kg, up 0.02 yuan/kg week-on-week [3]. - Profit: As of August 22, the profit of self - breeding and self - raising pigs was 33.95 yuan/head, an increase of 33.95 yuan/head week - on - week; the profit of purchasing piglets for fattening was - 151.8 yuan/head, an increase of 5.25 yuan/head week - on - week; the pig - grain ratio was 5.84, unchanged week - on - week [3]. - Market Situation: Pig prices were volatile last week with regional differences. Southern prices rose slightly due to second - fattening and transportation, while northern prices weakened due to increased supply and limited demand. Policy support from potential state reserve purchases and improved demand from the start of the school season in late August are expected to support prices [3]. Corn Market - Futures: The C2511 contract closed at 2,175 yuan/ton, down 0.78% from the previous week's settlement price [5]. - Spot: The national average spot price of corn was 2,381.96 yuan/ton, down 12.16 yuan/ton week - on - week. Port prices also declined [5]. - Industrial Consumption: From August 14 - 20, 2025, 149 major corn deep - processing enterprises consumed 113.62 million tons of corn, down 0.45 million tons week - on - week. Corn starch production and开机率 decreased, while the DDGS industry开机率 and production increased [6]. - Inventory: As of August 20, the corn inventory of 96 major processing enterprises in 12 regions was 3.147 billion tons, a decrease of 7.5%. As of August 22, the total corn inventory in four northern ports was about 1.5 billion tons, and in Guangdong ports it was 750 million tons [6]. - Market Situation: The corn spot market was weak last week. Supply increased due to import auctions and rotation sales in the Northeast, and increased arrivals in the North China. Demand was affected by equipment maintenance in starch plants and remained at a rigid level in feed enterprises. The futures price rebounded slightly but the upward space is limited [7].
生猪、玉米周报-20250804
Cai Da Qi Huo· 2025-08-04 11:38
Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - The short - term price of live pigs has some support, but it is still under pressure later; the corn price is supported in the short - term but has limited upside space with pressure on the upper side of the market and may fluctuate at a low level in the short - term [5][8] Summary by Related Catalogs Live Pigs - Last week, the live pig futures showed a weak trend. The LH2509 contract closed at 14,055 yuan/ton, a 2.63% drop from the previous week's settlement price. The national average market price of outer ternary live pigs was 14.26 yuan/kg, a week - on - week decrease of 0.55 yuan/kg. As of August 1st, the self - breeding and self - raising profit was 43.85 yuan/head, a week - on - week decrease of 18.31 yuan/head; the profit of purchasing piglets for breeding was - 116.78 yuan/head, a week - on - week decrease of 45.39 yuan/head; the pig - grain ratio was 5.93, a week - on - week decrease of 0.09 [5] - The national live pig spot market first declined and then stabilized last week. In the short term, downstream consumption has no obvious positive factors, and the demand boost is limited. At the beginning of the month, the enterprise's slaughter pressure weakens, and the breeding end mainly controls the quantity and stabilizes the price. After continuous market decline, second - fattening inquiries have started in some areas, providing short - term support for live pig prices. However, as breeding enterprises resume slaughter, live pig prices are still expected to be under pressure [5] Corn - Last week, the corn futures fluctuated weakly. The C2509 contract closed at 2,297 yuan/ton, a 0.73% drop from the previous week's settlement price. The national average spot price of corn was 2,402.75 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 5.09 yuan/ton. Port prices in some areas showed a slight decline [6] - From July 24th to July 31st, 2025, 149 major corn deep - processing enterprises consumed 1.1377 million tons of corn, a week - on - week increase of 75,300 tons. The processing volume of corn starch enterprises was 545,100 tons, an increase of 43,600 tons from the previous week; the weekly national corn starch output was 267,800 tons, an increase of 32,600 tons from the previous week; the weekly operating rate was 51.76%, a 6.3% increase from the previous week. The operating rate of the DDGS industry increased, with the weekly output increasing by 8.20% [7] - As of July 30th, 2025, the total corn inventory of 96 major corn processing enterprises in 12 regions was 3.797 million tons, a decrease of 5.19%. As of August 1st, the total corn inventory of the four northern ports was about 2.06 million tons, and the corn inventory in Guangdong ports was 830,000 tons [7][8] - The national corn spot market first rose and then fell last week. The remaining grain inventory decreased significantly year - on - year, providing short - term supply support for corn prices. However, it is rumored that the directional rice auction may resume in August, which will help ease the tight supply of the corn market and limit the upside space of corn prices. The market is under pressure on the upper side and may fluctuate at a low level in the short term [8]