Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The supply side in August shows an increase in the slaughter plan of the breeding end compared to the previous month, resulting in a relatively loose market supply. However, as prices fall, some farms may be inclined to hold out for higher prices, and the entry of second - round fattening has increased, which will slow down the slaughter rhythm. Additionally, the current price difference between fat and standard pigs has widened, providing conditions for later pressure on stocks [6]. - On the demand side, the state will conduct central pork reserve purchases in the near future, boosting market confidence. With sufficient pig supply and improved demand in some areas, the slaughterhouse operating rate has moderately rebounded. It is expected that demand will improve with the start of school and subsequent double - festival stocking [6]. - Overall, although the slaughter pressure in August restrains the performance of spot prices, the state's reserve purchases boost market confidence, and the upcoming start of school brings expectations of improved demand. It is expected that the short - term hog futures price will fluctuate slightly stronger within a range. It is recommended to hold long positions lightly, set stop - losses, and take profits opportunistically [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Week - to - Week Summary - **Market Review**: The hog price declined, with the main contract 2511 falling 0.75% on a weekly basis [6][10]. - **Market Outlook**: Supply is relatively loose in August, but factors such as farms' price - holding intentions, increased second - round fattening, and a widened fat - standard price difference will affect the supply rhythm. Demand is expected to improve due to state reserve purchases, the start of school, and double - festival stocking. Short - term futures prices are expected to fluctuate slightly stronger within a range [6]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Markets - **Futures Market**: The futures price declined this week, with the main contract 2511 down 0.75% week - on - week. As of August 22, the net short position of the top 20 holders decreased by 1654 lots compared to last week, and the number of futures warrants was 430, unchanged from last week [10][16]. - **Spot Market**: - The basis of the September contract was - 160 yuan/ton, and that of the November contract was - 240 yuan/ton this week [20]. - The national average hog price was 13.82 yuan/kg, up 0.02 yuan/kg from last week but down 2.88% from last month. The average price of 15 - kg weaned piglets was 28.72 yuan/kg, down 2.35 yuan from last week and 15.18% from the same period last month [27]. - The national average pork price was 25.16 yuan/kg in the week of August 7, down 0.05 yuan/kg from the previous week. The average market price of binary sows was 32.52 yuan/kg, down 0.01 yuan/kg from the previous week [31]. - As of August 13, the hog - grain ratio was 5.94, down 0.08 from the previous week, remaining below 6:1 [36]. 3.3. Industry Situation - **Upstream**: - In June 2025, the inventory of breeding sows was 40430000 heads, a month - on - month increase of 10000 heads and a year - on - year increase of 0.12%, reaching 103.7% of the normal inventory. According to Mysteel data, in July, the inventory of breeding sows in 123 large - scale farms increased slightly by 0.01% month - on - month and 3.03% year - on - year, while that in 85 small and medium - sized farms decreased slightly by 0.17% month - on - month but increased 6.67% year - on - year [41]. - In the second quarter, the hog inventory increased year - on - year, and in July, it increased month - on - month according to institutional data. In July, the inventory of commercial hogs in 123 large - scale farms increased by 1.11% month - on - month and 5.28% year - on - year, and that in 85 small and medium - sized farms increased by 2.49% month - on - month and 7.23% year - on - year [44]. - In July, the slaughter volume decreased month - on - month, and the average slaughter weight increased. The slaughter volume of commercial hogs in 123 large - scale farms was 10436200 heads, a month - on - month decrease of 3.08% but a year - on - year increase of 18.60%. The slaughter volume of 85 small and medium - sized farms was 480600 heads, a month - on - month decrease of 1.46% but a year - on - year increase of 57.67%. The average slaughter weight of national outer - ternary hogs this week was 123.38 kg, an increase of 0.15 kg from last week [49]. - **Industry Profit**: - As of August 22, the profit of purchasing piglets for breeding reported a loss of 151.8 yuan/head, with the loss decreasing by 5.25 yuan/head. The profit of self - breeding and self - raising hogs was 33.95 yuan/head, a month - on - month increase of 5.1 yuan/head. The profit of laying hens was - 0.15 yuan/head, with the weekly loss decreasing by 0.11 yuan/head, and the profit of 817 meat - hybrid chickens was 1.01 yuan/head [54]. - **Domestic Situation**: In July, China's pork imports were 90000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.6%. From January to July, the cumulative pork imports were 630000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.1% [59]. - **Substitute Situation**: As of the week of August 22, the price of white - striped chickens was 14.4 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.3 yuan/kg from last week. As of the week of August 21, the average price difference between standard and fat hogs was - 0.48 yuan/kg, the same as last week [64]. - **Feed Situation**: - As of August 22, the spot price of soybean meal was 3084.29 yuan/ton, a decrease of 12.57 yuan/ton from the previous week, and the price of corn was 2373.53 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20.59 yuan/ton from the previous week [69]. - As of August 22, the closing price of the Dalian Commodity Exchange hog feed cost index was 906.49, a decrease of 2.19% from last week, and the price of finishing hog compound feed was 3.34 yuan/kg, unchanged from last week [72]. - As of July 2025, the monthly feed production was 2827.3 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 110.4 tons [77]. - **CPI**: As of July 2025, China's CPI increased by 0.0% year - on - year [81]. - **Downstream**: - In the 34th week, the operating rate of slaughtering enterprises was 28.71%, an increase of 0.92 percentage points from last week, and the domestic frozen product storage rate was 17.56%, a slight increase of 0.04 percentage points from last week [84]. - As of June 2025, the slaughter volume of designated hog slaughtering enterprises was 30060000 heads, a month - on - month decrease of 6.53%. In July 2025, the national catering revenue was 450400000000 yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1.1% [89]. - **Hog - related Stocks**: The report mentions the stock trends of Muyuan Co., Ltd. and Wens Co., Ltd., but no specific data analysis is provided [90].