当地时间9月22日，美国三大股指接连刷新历史高位，市场情绪高涨。同时，作为避险资产的黄金仍强 势上行，现货金价站上每盎司3750美元，市场似乎步入了押注美联储大幅降息的模式。 德意志分析师亨利·艾伦（Henry Allen）在最新发布的报告中表示，近期风险资产与黄金价格同时创下 历史新高，反映出市场已计入大量潜在下行风险，市场情绪并非完全乐观，存在一定的谨慎情绪，如果 已被定价的风险未成为现实，市场仍有进一步的上行空间。 但需要注意的是，艾伦的判断建立在美联储降息符合预期且美国企业盈利得以兑现的假设上，如若美联 储超预期"鹰派"或美股第三季度营收增速不及预期，很可能将放大美股的下行压力。 华尔街知名投资人、投资咨询公司亚德尼研究公司（Yardeni Research）创始人爱德华·亚德尼（Ed Yardeni）分析表示，最近的美股涨势与20世纪90年代末的科技泡沫有些相似。他警告称，即使美股企 业的盈利继续改善，当前的估值也已过高。 多位美联储官员给降息预期"泼冷水" 面对市场愈发激进的降息预期，一日之内多位美联储官员均释放"鹰派"信号。据芝商所"美联储观察"工 具，市场预计美联储将分别在10月、12月各降息 ...

Core Insights - The latest report from Morgan Stanley reveals a split within the Federal Reserve regarding the appropriateness of a 75 basis point rate cut by 2025, with 10 out of 19 FOMC members supporting it while 9 members advocate for a smaller cut [1][6] - The division is not merely a "dove vs. hawk" scenario but stems from differing views on the level of the neutral interest rate (r*) [1][3] - Both factions agree on transitioning to a neutral rate by mid-2026 or 2027, but they disagree on what that neutral rate should be, leading to significant divergence in the dot plot [3] Labor Growth and Economic Implications - The report highlights a stagnation in U.S. labor growth, which is expected to exert downward pressure on potential economic growth (g*) and consequently on the neutral interest rate (r*) [1][5] - Historical data shows a strong correlation between neutral interest rates and potential growth rates, but since 2023, this relationship has diverged, indicating a potential decline in economic growth [5] FOMC Member Perspectives - The two factions within the FOMC are defined as follows: - Faction one consists of 10 members who believe a 75 basis point cut or more is appropriate within the year [6] - Faction two includes 9 members who argue for a cut of less than 75 basis points [6]