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【广发宏观贺骁束】高频数据下的7月经济:价格篇
郭磊宏观茶座· 2025-08-01 04:07
Core Viewpoint - The overall price signals in July show improvement, with upstream raw materials and some new industry products experiencing upward trends, indicating a positive cycle for enterprises' inventory replenishment [17] Group 1: Industrial Raw Material Prices - The BPI industrial raw material price index slightly rebounded in July, recording 869 points, a 1.4% increase compared to the end of June. Energy and non-ferrous metal prices increased by 0.1% and 3.1% month-on-month, respectively [1][4][5] - The domestic pricing of upstream commodities saw widespread increases, with rebar, coking coal, and glass futures prices rising significantly by 6.9%, 11.3%, and 21.3% month-on-month, respectively [7][8] Group 2: Real Estate Market - The trend of housing price adjustments continues, with only Shanghai's second-hand housing prices stabilizing slightly for two consecutive months, while other major cities saw declines. The second-hand housing price index for four major cities decreased by -0.9%, 0.1%, -1.1%, and -1.3% compared to the last week of June [10] Group 3: Emerging Industries - The emerging industry chain prices have rebounded from the bottom, with the photovoltaic industry composite index recording the largest monthly increase since 2021, rising by 18.9% month-on-month. The prices of carbon lithium and polysilicon futures also increased [11] Group 4: Downstream Prices - Downstream prices remain weak, with the Linyi Mall price index slightly declining by 0.27% compared to the end of June. Prices for daily necessities, clothing, and home appliances decreased, while hardware prices remained stable [12] Group 5: Food Prices - Food prices showed mixed trends, with pork and vegetable prices rising. The average wholesale price of pork increased by 1.2% month-on-month, while the prices of 28 key vegetables rose by 1.4% [16]