赛克产品行业领先，开发高分子助剂产品发挥协同效应 键邦股份(603285) 键邦股份首次覆盖报告 | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 刘威(分析师) | 0755-82764281 | liuwei7@gtht.com | S0880525040100 | | 张翠翠(分析师) | 021-23185611 | zhangcuicui@gtht.com | S0880525040018 | 本报告导读： 公司以赛克单项冠军产品为切入点发展高分子材料助剂，随着下游新兴行业崛起有 望助力产品价格企稳回升。 投资要点： | [Table_Finance] 财务摘要(百万元) | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入 | 674 | 673 | 655 | 851 | 1,120 | | (+/-)% | -10.6% | -0.2% | -2.6% | 29.9% | 31.7% | | ...

赛克产品行业领先，开发高分子助剂产品发挥协同效应 键邦股份(603285) 键邦股份首次覆盖报告 | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 刘威(分析师) | 0755-82764281 | liuwei7@gtht.com | S0880525040100 | | 张翠翠(分析师) | 021-23185611 | zhangcuicui@gtht.com | S0880525040018 | 本报告导读： | [Table_Finance] 财务摘要(百万元) | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入 | 674 | 673 | 655 | 851 | 1,120 | | (+/-)% | -10.6% | -0.2% | -2.6% | 29.9% | 31.7% | | 净利润(归母) | 190 | 158 | 132 | 195 | 282 | | (+/-)% | -21. ...

绩优基金重仓科技与资源品 纵观2025年全年表现，多只外资公募旗下主动权益产品录得亮眼涨幅。其中，贝莱德先进制造一 年持有A全年上涨63.34%，富达低碳成长A收涨44.27%，施罗德中国动力A上涨47.94%，安联中 国精选A涨幅达65.83%，而路博迈资源精选A全年累计涨幅更是高达97.28%，在同类产品中表现 尤为突出，显示出外资机构在结构性行情中的较强把握能力。 从持仓结构来看，上述外资公募产品整体仍以制造业为配置核心，同时对科技成长与资源品机会 保持较高关注。 2025年结构性行情演绎之下，多只外资公募旗下主动权益产品实现显著超额收益，其配置主 线与持仓取向也逐渐清晰。 从全年表现看，外资公募多只产品录得亮眼涨幅，部分产品在同类中表现突出。拆解其持仓结构 可以发现，相关产品重点布局科技成长与资源品方向，体现出较强的选股与配置能力。 进一步结合最新季报观点，外资机构在具体操作上呈现出更为细致的取舍。一方面顺周期与资源 品配置有所升温，另一方面科技主线并未动摇，而是从高预期领域向更具性价比和确定性的细分 方向迁移，围绕中国经济转型与价值重估展开布局。 在具体判断上，AI板块盈利预期不断上调，但股价表现相 ...

智通财经APP获悉，中信证券发布研报称，展望2月，在港股业绩预期已有显著调整，叠加内外部资金 面的扰动因素也已告一段落，判断港股2025年12月下旬以来的春季行情或将延续，整体呈现春节前大盘 股有相对收益，政策方向支持的成长行业表现更优的态势。春季后需关注下一个解禁高峰期或对港股流 动性预期的影响。短期建议关注三大主线：1)"十五五"政策方向，包括生物制造、具身智能、6G等;2) 政策推动基本预期逆转的外卖平台和地产;3)受益于春季躁动的非银。 港股市场存在较为明显的春季躁动行情。 过去十一年港股的春季躁动行情中，恒指平均收益率为2.4%，期间平均周度胜率达70.8%。其中， 2019/2021/2023年表现较为亮眼，平均涨幅达10.6%。而2016年和2024年由于分别受熊市末端和流动性 冲击，春季躁动区间跌幅分别为12.0%和7.6%，直至春节后行情才逐步展开。对比而言，港股的春季躁 动更多集中在1月份，而A股的春季躁动更多集中在2月份。资金流维度，2015-2025年的十一年中，南 向历年1月和1+2月净流入占全年比例平均分别为19.3%和27.9%，但若剔除2018年(1+2月净流入体量超 过全年) ...

丨证券研究报告丨 固定收益丨点评报告 [Table_Title] 环比也在改善 %% %% ——2025 年 12 月工业企业利润点评 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 2025 年规上工企利润增速提升，12 月单月盈利改善，库存去化加快、产销率提升，经营压力 或边际缓解，企业盈利修复态势初显。但是，营收与利润率表现仍呈分化，盈利质量受一定制 约，行业间也表现分化，中上游较好而下游承压。"反内卷"措施或有一定效果，但利润修复的 持续性还需观察政策能否激发终端需求改善、拉动物价企稳回升。数据公布当日，10 年期、30 年期国债调整，债市对基本面的反应或仍呈"对利多钝化、对利空敏感"的特征，经济基本面 的结构性亮点或制约利率下行空间，我们维持近期长债震荡的观点。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] SAC：S0490524080003 SFC：BVN394 赵增辉 马玮健 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% research.95579.com 1 [Table_Title 环比也在改善2] ——2025 年 12 月工业企业利润点评 [Table_Summary2] 事件描述 2025 ...

公 司 研 "纤"动未来， "聚"力变革 海利得(002206) | | | | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 刘威(分析师) | 0755-82764281 | liuwei7@gtht.com | S0880525040100 | | 沈唯(分析师) | 0755-23976795 | shenwei2@gtht.com | S0880523080006 | 本报告导读： 公司积极布局新材料，且涤纶工业丝价差同比修复明显，维持增持评级。 投资要点： | [Table_Finance] 财务摘要(百万元) | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入 | 5,622 | 5,901 | 5,924 | 6,101 | 6,328 | | (+/-)% | 2.0% | 5.0% | 0.4% | 3.0% | 3.7% | | 净利润(归母) | 349 | 411 | 522 | ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [6][12]. Core Insights - The company is actively expanding into new materials, and the price gap for polyester industrial yarn has significantly improved year-on-year [2][12]. - The target price has been raised to 10.40 yuan, based on an updated earnings per share (EPS) forecast for 2025-2027 [12][14]. Financial Summary - Total revenue is projected to grow from 5,622 million yuan in 2023 to 6,328 million yuan in 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 3.7% [4][13]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to increase from 349 million yuan in 2023 to 675 million yuan in 2027, with a notable growth rate of 17.6% in 2024 and 27.0% in 2025 [4][13]. - Earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to rise from 0.30 yuan in 2023 to 0.58 yuan in 2027 [4][13]. - The return on equity (ROE) is anticipated to improve from 9.5% in 2023 to 14.6% in 2027 [4][13]. Business Development - The company plans to establish a subsidiary to implement industrialization projects for spinning oil agents and LCP resin, with a production capacity of 6,000 tons of LCP and 10,000 tons of chemical fiber oil agents [12]. - The company has made significant advancements in the preparation technology for high-end LCP resin and has successfully developed formulations for five types of polyester industrial yarn oil agents [12]. - The company is also expanding its operations in Vietnam, with a project to produce 18,000 tons of high-performance tire cord fabric and additional polyester projects [12].

Market Performance - Emerging markets saw a narrowing increase, while developed markets declined, with MSCI Global down 0.4%, MSCI Developed Markets down 0.6%, and MSCI Emerging Markets up 0.9% [9][15] - In the bond market, Japan's 10Y government bond yield rose significantly by 7.1 basis points, while France's yield saw the largest decline of 2.3 basis points [9][17] - Commodities like COMEX silver and gold experienced notable increases, with silver up 14.5% [9][15] Trading Sentiment - Global trading sentiment showed divergence, with increased trading volumes in Japan and South Korea, while trading volumes in Hong Kong and the US decreased [21] - The short-selling ratio in Hong Kong rose to 13.1%, indicating a high level of investor sentiment, while North American sentiment remains historically elevated [21][23] Economic Expectations - The US economic surprise index increased, influenced by easing geopolitical tensions and dovish expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's leadership [9][52] - The European economic surprise index decreased amid renewed trade tensions between the US and Europe [9][52] Earnings Expectations - The earnings forecast for the Hang Seng Index for 2026 was marginally revised down from 2069 to 2065, with the financial sector seeing the largest upward revision [71] - The S&P 500's earnings forecast for 2025 was adjusted up from 273 to 274, with the financial sector also showing the most significant upward revision [71]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Accumulate" for the company [6][13]. Core Insights - The company is expected to see a significant increase in gross profit margin by 2026, supported by the operation of its U.S. factory, which will contribute positively to its business growth in the U.S. market [2][13]. - The company has outlined four clear growth directions in its strategic planning, which are progressing smoothly and are anticipated to drive revenue growth and margin improvement [13]. - The projected revenue for 2025 is estimated to be between 145.5 billion to 147.5 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 9.43% to 10.93% [13]. Financial Summary - Total revenue for 2023 is reported at 11,485 million yuan, with projections of 13,296 million yuan for 2024, 14,598 million yuan for 2025, 16,195 million yuan for 2026, and 18,175 million yuan for 2027, reflecting a growth rate of -20.6% in 2023, followed by positive growth in subsequent years [4][14]. - Net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to recover significantly from 771 million yuan in 2023 to 1,110 million yuan in 2025, and further to 1,357 million yuan in 2026, indicating a year-on-year growth of 146.6% in 2025 [4][14]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is projected to increase from 2.75 yuan in 2023 to 3.95 yuan in 2025, and 4.83 yuan in 2026 [4][14]. Market Data - The current stock price is 78.80 yuan, with a target price set at 94.19 yuan, indicating a potential upside [6][13]. - The company has a total market capitalization of 22,125 million yuan and a total share capital of 281 million shares [7][14]. - The stock has shown a 52-week price range of 47.18 to 82.95 yuan, with a significant absolute increase of 68% over the past 12 months [7][11].

A-Share Market Insights - The A-share market saw an overall increase, with the CSI 500 and CSI 2000 leading gains at 4.34% and 4.04% respectively, while the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.84% and the Shenzhen Component Index by 1.11%[6] - Small-cap value and mid-cap value indices performed well, increasing by 4.43% and 4.36% respectively, while the average daily trading volume was 2.8 trillion yuan, down 19.22% week-on-week[6] - The People's Bank of China announced a 0.25 percentage point cut in relending and rediscount rates effective January 19, 2026, injecting liquidity and lowering financing costs, boosting investor confidence[6] - The first batch of 936 billion yuan in special long-term bonds for equipment upgrades has been allocated, supporting total investments exceeding 460 billion yuan, which is expected to enhance the manufacturing and emerging industries[6] Market Outlook - Despite high market activity, indications of "cooling" suggest a potential for short-term fluctuations, with sectors that have seen significant gains likely facing correction pressures[7] - Industries with improved performance and policy support, such as electricity and equipment upgrades, are expected to continue to outperform[7] Hong Kong Market Insights - The Hong Kong market experienced a downward trend, with the Hang Seng Index falling by 0.36%, the Hang Seng Tech Index by 0.42%, and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index by 0.65%[8] - The materials, energy, and conglomerates sectors recorded gains of 4.1%, 2.85%, and 2.32% respectively, while the information technology and healthcare sectors faced declines of 2.84% and 2.56%[8] - The market's weakness was influenced by cautious reactions to U.S. tech stocks and profit-taking pressures, alongside geopolitical risks impacting sentiment[8] Future Expectations - The Hong Kong market is expected to experience structural growth supported by expectations of U.S. interest rate cuts and a recovery in A-share sentiment, with AI demand driving tech sector performance[9] - A barbell strategy is recommended for investors, focusing on high-dividend assets to hedge against market volatility while also targeting growth-oriented tech and new consumption sectors[9] Risk Considerations - Risks include potential tightening of global liquidity beyond expectations, increased complexity in market dynamics, and unpredictable policy changes[10]