广发证券 资深宏观分析师 贺骁束 hexiaoshu@ gf.com.cn 广发宏观郭磊团队 摘要 第七， 食品价格涨跌互现，其中猪肉、蔬菜价格稳中有升。7月全国猪肉平均批发价（月均值）环比回升 1.2%，全国28种重点蔬菜价格环比回升1.4%。7种重点监测水果平均批发价、黄玉米期货结算价环比分别 为-5.0%、-2.3% 。 第八， 简单总结，7月价格面信号整体好转。在反内卷改善供需比的预期下，内需定价的上游原材料和部分 新产业产品上行斜率扩大。价格从低位上涨是有积极意义的，它有助于助推企业原材料补库行为，形成企业行 为和价格的正循环。但需求端的承接也较为关键，政治局会议强调的"两重"项目三季度能否发力较为重要。 同时，最终决定中期供求关系的不止是"反内卷"，还包括地方政府投资的长效机制、产业投资的动态平衡机 制、居民部门两表的正循环等，预计"十五五"期间的政策将作出进一步的部署 。 正文 7月BPI工业原材料价格指数小幅回升，能源价格受供给影响先扬后抑，有色分项价格收涨。截至7月31日， 生意社BPI指数录得869点，相较6月末回升1.4%。其中能源、有色价格（月环比）分别为0.1%、3.1%。 第一， ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the mixed signals in price trends across various sectors in June, influenced by geopolitical factors and domestic demand dynamics, with particular attention to the fluctuations in industrial raw material prices and real estate markets [1][3][4]. Group 1: Industrial Raw Materials and Energy Prices - In June, the BPI index recorded 857 points, a slight increase of 0.1% compared to the end of May, with energy prices down by 0.1% and non-ferrous metal prices up by 1.9% month-on-month [1][4]. - The geopolitical events, particularly in the Middle East, have caused fluctuations in energy prices, while the supply-demand structure tightening and a decline in the US dollar index contributed to the rise in non-ferrous metal prices [4]. Group 2: Domestic Demand and Commodity Prices - Domestic pricing for coking coal and rebar futures saw significant month-on-month increases of 23.4% and 2.5%, respectively, indicating a positive trend in the domestic demand for these commodities [5][6]. - The South China Industrial Products Index showed a month-on-month increase of 4.2%, with a narrowing year-on-year decline compared to May [6]. Group 3: Real Estate Market Trends - The second-hand housing price index in major cities showed mixed results, with Shanghai's prices stabilizing. The indices for Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen recorded changes of -0.7%, 0.8%, -0.8%, and -0.04% respectively compared to the last week of May [6][8]. - The year-to-date high points for these cities were noted earlier in the year, indicating a potential stabilization in the real estate market [6]. Group 4: Emerging Industries and Price Trends - The photovoltaic industry composite index continued to decline, down 4.6% month-on-month, primarily due to the performance of battery cells, while lithium carbonate futures prices increased by 5.3% [7][8]. - The DXI index, which reflects the semiconductor (DRAM) market's performance, surged by 29.4%, indicating strong demand in this sector [7][8]. Group 5: Shipping and Export Prices - In the shipping sector, most prices increased, with the China Container Freight Index (CCFI) rising by 22.5% month-on-month. Specific routes, such as Shanghai to Los Angeles and Shanghai to New York, saw increases of 0.1% and 10.3%, respectively [9][10]. - The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) also continued its upward trend, increasing by 5.0% month-on-month, reflecting a recovery in shipping rates [11]. Group 6: Food Prices and Market Dynamics - Food prices exhibited a mixed performance, with the average wholesale price of pork declining by 2.3% month-on-month, while the prices of 28 key vegetables rose by 0.5% [11]. - The average wholesale prices of seven monitored fruits fell by 5.5%, indicating a weak overall trend in food prices [11]. Group 7: Summary and Future Outlook - Overall, June's price signals were mixed, with geopolitical factors influencing oil prices and domestic demand driving certain commodity prices higher. The focus remains on the marginal changes in prices in sectors such as steel, coal, cement, photovoltaic, and automotive in the future [3][12].

有色、钢铁行业 行业研究 | 行业周报 铁矿价格出现明显松动，继续关注钢铁板 块的投资机会 ——有色钢铁行业周观点（2025 年第 19 周） 核心观点 投资建议与投资标的 风险提示 国内宏观经济增速放缓；美国通胀增速放缓；原材料价格波动 国家/地区 中国 行业 有色、钢铁行业 报告发布日期 2025 年 05 月 11 日 看好（维持） 刘洋 021-63325888*6084 liuyang3@orientsec.com.cn 执业证书编号：S0860520010002 香港证监会牌照：BTB487 | 铁矿价格出现明显松动，积极关注钢铁板 | 2025-04-27 | | --- | --- | | 块的投资机会：——有色钢铁行业周观点 | | | （2025 年第 17 周） | | | 持续关注钢铁板块的投资机会：——有色 | 2025-04-20 | | 钢铁行业周观点（2025 年第 16 周） | | | 金价再创新高，积极关注黄金板块投资机 | 2025-03-30 | | 会：——有色钢铁行业周观点（2025 年第 | | | 13 周） | | 有关分析师的申明，见本报告最后部分。其他重 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the non-ferrous and steel industry [5]. Core Viewpoints - Iron ore prices have shown significant loosening, prompting continued attention to investment opportunities in the steel sector. The recent financial policies, including interest rate cuts, are expected to impact the market positively. The steel sector, having undergone three years of adjustment, now presents a favorable cost-performance ratio, with leading companies showing improved profitability and stability [8][14]. Summary by Sections Macro Overview - Iron ore prices are experiencing notable loosening, with expectations that May's iron and steel production may peak. The steel mills are likely to squeeze iron ore profits, leading to potential downward feedback on prices. The domestic demand-driven pricing in the steel sector is seen as advantageous given the high tariffs affecting external demand [8][14]. Steel Market - The consumption of rebar has decreased significantly, with a reported consumption of 2.14 million tons, a 26.67% decrease week-on-week. The overall price index for common steel has slightly declined by 0.71%, with rebar prices at 3,296 CNY/ton, down 0.8% week-on-week [15][37]. Industrial Metals - The copper smelting fees have deepened into negative territory, with the current rough smelting fee at -43.5 USD/thousand tons, a decrease of 8.21% week-on-week. The production costs for electrolytic aluminum have shown mixed trends, with costs in Xinjiang slightly increasing while those in Shandong have decreased significantly [17][29]. Precious Metals - Tariffs are expected to boost demand for safe-haven assets and inflation expectations, leading to a potential rise in gold prices. As of May 9, 2025, COMEX gold prices were reported at 3,329.1 USD/ounce, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 2.52% [17][37]. Investment Recommendations - For the steel sector, it is recommended to focus on leading companies such as Shandong Steel (600022, Buy) and Jiugang Steel (002110, Not Rated). In the non-ferrous sector, investment in Northern Rare Earth (600111, Buy) and Jinchuan Group (300748, Buy) is suggested [8][17].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the non-ferrous and steel industry [5]. Core Viewpoints - Iron ore prices have shown significant loosening, suggesting a positive outlook for investment opportunities in the steel sector. The market anticipates that after the May Day holiday, iron water production will peak, potentially squeezing iron ore profits, leading to downward price feedback [8][13]. - The steel sector has experienced three years of adjustment, positioning it as a high-value investment opportunity. The profitability and stability of leading enterprises have significantly improved, and the supply structure of iron ore may undergo substantial changes, allowing profits to flow back to the domestic steel industry [8][13]. Summary by Sections Steel Industry - The consumption of rebar has decreased, with a reported national consumption of 2.6 million tons, reflecting a week-on-week decline of 5.07%. The average price of rebar has slightly increased to 3,323 CNY/ton, while cold-rolled prices have decreased to 3,812 CNY/ton, down 1.54% week-on-week [14][37]. - The total steel inventory has decreased significantly, with a total inventory of 1,083 million tons, down 3.68% week-on-week and 24.11% year-on-year [23]. - The profitability of long and short process rebar has increased, with long process rebar profit rising by 25 CNY/ton and short process rebar profit increasing by 350 CNY/ton [34]. Industrial Metals - The copper treatment charge (TC) and refining charge (RC) have deepened into negative territory, indicating challenges in the copper market. The LME aluminum price has risen to 2,412 USD/ton, a week-on-week increase of 3.63% [16]. - The production costs for electrolytic aluminum have decreased significantly, with costs in Xinjiang dropping by 16.22% and profits increasing by 3,455 CNY/ton [16]. Precious Metals - Tariffs may drive up demand for safe-haven assets and inflation expectations, with gold prices expected to continue rising. The COMEX gold price is reported at 3,330.2 USD/ounce, with a slight week-on-week decline of 0.33% [16][49]. New Energy Metals - Lithium carbonate production in China has significantly increased, with a reported production of 56,110 tons in February 2025, a year-on-year increase of 57.44% [15][40]. - The price of battery-grade lithium carbonate is currently 69,600 CNY/ton, reflecting a slight week-on-week decrease of 1.21% [49].