Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Short - term: Oil prices will fluctuate within a range; Medium - term: Bearish allocation [3] 2. Core View - Due to the disruption of refinery operations caused by Ukrainian drone attacks, Russia has increased its August crude oil export plan from western ports by 200,000 barrels per day, but it's uncertain whether the increased supply can be exported, especially under the background of the US imposing secondary tariffs on India [2] 3. Summary by Related Content Market News and Important Data - On the New York Mercantile Exchange, the October - delivery light crude oil futures price dropped by $1.55 to $63.25 per barrel, a decline of 2.39%; the October - delivery London Brent crude oil futures price fell by $1.58 to $67.22 per barrel, a decline of 2.30%. The SC crude oil main contract closed down 2.19% at 487 yuan per barrel [1] - Russia has extended the broader gasoline export restrictions until September 30. Gasoline producers are prohibited from exporting gasoline until the end of next month, and non - producers until the end of October, mainly affecting maritime supplies. This is due to refinery attacks and increased demand, especially in the agricultural sector [1] - Due to refinery disruptions from drone attacks, Russia has increased its August western port crude oil export plan by 200,000 barrels per day, but export arrangements are uncertain due to continuous attacks and changing maintenance plans [1] - Iran's crude oil exports in August declined. The average daily export volume so far this month is about 1.5 million barrels, down from 1.7 million barrels from March to May [1] Investment Logic - The increased supply from Russia may not be successfully exported as the motivation for sellers to purchase Russian oil is limited without further discounts under the US tariff policy [2] Strategy - Short - term: Oil prices will oscillate within a range; Medium - term: Bearish allocation [3]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Oil prices will fluctuate within a range, and a medium - term short - position allocation is recommended [3] Group 2: Core Viewpoints - Saudi Arabia's recent production increase is not for market share but due to the Middle East conflict. It is to transfer supply overseas, not directly increase sales to customers. This operation is not sustainable as the conflict eases. Saudi Arabia is still restrained in production increase and aims to balance Trump's call to lower oil prices with its own interests [2] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data - WTI August crude oil futures fell $1.47, a nearly 2.15% decline, to $66.98 per barrel. Brent September crude oil futures dropped $1.15, over a 1.63% decline, to $69.21 per barrel [1] - Trump said the US will send more weapons to Ukraine, produce weapons independently, and have Ukraine bear the cost. If no agreement is reached in 50 days, the US will impose 100% secondary tariffs on Russia, possibly targeting countries buying Russian oil [1] - The IEA monthly report raised oil supply forecasts for this and next year. Iranian crude production and exports declined in June, while Saudi oil production soared in June, far exceeding OPEC+ quotas [1] - OPEC Secretary - General Haitham Al Ghais said OPEC and its allies are increasing oil production. Third - quarter oil demand will be "very strong", and supply - demand will be in a tight balance in the following months. The organization expects 2025 demand to increase by 1.3 million barrels per day year - on - year. However, OPEC lowered its global oil demand forecast for the next 4 years last week [1] Investment Logic - Saudi Arabia's production increase is not for market share but due to the Middle East conflict and will not be sustainable [2] Strategy - Oil prices will have a range - bound movement, and a medium - term short - position allocation is advised [3]