Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Short - term: Oil prices will fluctuate within a range; Medium - term: Bearish allocation [3] 2. Core View - Due to the disruption of refinery operations caused by Ukrainian drone attacks, Russia has increased its August crude oil export plan from western ports by 200,000 barrels per day, but it's uncertain whether the increased supply can be exported, especially under the background of the US imposing secondary tariffs on India [2] 3. Summary by Related Content Market News and Important Data - On the New York Mercantile Exchange, the October - delivery light crude oil futures price dropped by $1.55 to $63.25 per barrel, a decline of 2.39%; the October - delivery London Brent crude oil futures price fell by $1.58 to $67.22 per barrel, a decline of 2.30%. The SC crude oil main contract closed down 2.19% at 487 yuan per barrel [1] - Russia has extended the broader gasoline export restrictions until September 30. Gasoline producers are prohibited from exporting gasoline until the end of next month, and non - producers until the end of October, mainly affecting maritime supplies. This is due to refinery attacks and increased demand, especially in the agricultural sector [1] - Due to refinery disruptions from drone attacks, Russia has increased its August western port crude oil export plan by 200,000 barrels per day, but export arrangements are uncertain due to continuous attacks and changing maintenance plans [1] - Iran's crude oil exports in August declined. The average daily export volume so far this month is about 1.5 million barrels, down from 1.7 million barrels from March to May [1] Investment Logic - The increased supply from Russia may not be successfully exported as the motivation for sellers to purchase Russian oil is limited without further discounts under the US tariff policy [2] Strategy - Short - term: Oil prices will oscillate within a range; Medium - term: Bearish allocation [3]

Market News and Important Data - The price of light crude oil futures for September delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 62 cents, closing at $63.42 per barrel, a gain of 0.99%. The price of Brent crude oil futures for October delivery rose 75 cents, closing at $66.60 per barrel, a gain of 1.14%. The main contract of SC crude oil closed up 0.70% at 489 yuan per barrel [1] - After the meeting between US President Trump and Russian President Putin, Trump said there was no plan to impose tariffs on China for buying Russian oil. He might consider the issue in two or three weeks [1] - Trump interrupted his meeting with European leaders and called Putin to arrange a meeting between Putin and Zelensky, with the location to be determined [1] - Ukraine will promise to buy $100 billion worth of US weapons with European funding and reach a $50 billion agreement with US to co - produce drones with Ukrainian companies [1] - After Ukraine attacked a pipeline transformer station, Russia's oil supply to Hungary was interrupted [1] - Multiple Palestinian factions, including Hamas, agreed to the latest cease - fire proposal from Egypt and Qatar in the Gaza Strip [1] Investment Logic - Although the US - Russia talks have advanced the negotiation, the secondary sanctions on India for Russian oil have not been clearly cancelled. India will impose additional secondary tariffs on August 27, and the Russia - Ukraine negotiation and India's decision need continuous attention [2] Strategy - Oil prices will fluctuate in a short - term range and a medium - term short - position allocation is recommended [3]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - The report suggests that oil prices will experience short - term range - bound fluctuations and medium - term bearish allocation [3] 2. Core View - The EU's 18th round of sanctions on Russia aims to plug the refining loophole by restricting the export of refined Russian oil products from third - countries to Europe. The implementation of this sanction is difficult, and it has a 6 - month exemption period, so the short - term impact on the market is limited [2] 3. Market News and Key Data - The price of light crude oil futures for August delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 14 cents to $67.20 per barrel, a decrease of 0.21%. The price of Brent crude oil futures for September delivery fell 7 cents to $69.21 per barrel, a decrease of 0.10%. The SC crude oil main contract closed down 1.20% at 509 yuan per barrel [1] - Iran is waiting for the US to show "genuine determination" on restarting nuclear negotiations with the US, emphasizing that only diplomatic means can solve the problem [1] - The EU has reached an agreement on the 18th round of sanctions against Russia. The new measures include lowering the G7's price cap on Russian oil from $60 to $47.6 per barrel, cutting about 20 Russian banks from the SWIFT system, imposing sanctions on the Nord Stream gas pipeline, and restricting Russian oil refined in third - countries [1] - The EU Council has voted to extend the requirement for EU member states to maintain sufficient natural gas reserves before winter for another two years to reduce the risk of natural gas price fluctuations caused by the Russia - Ukraine conflict [1] - The UK has joined the EU in lowering the so - called "price cap" on Russian crude oil exports from $60 to $47.6 per barrel [1] - Iran has agreed to hold a new round of negotiations with representatives of the UK, France, and Germany in the Iran nuclear deal in Istanbul on Friday [1] 4. Investment Logic - The EU's 18th - round sanctions on Russia aim to plug the refining loophole by restricting the export of refined Russian oil products from third - countries (mainly India and Turkey, with a combined diesel export of about 200,000 barrels per day) to Europe. However, the implementation of the sanctions is difficult as products can be blended in third - countries or have their origin certificates changed, and it's hard for the EU to trace Russian oil. The 6 - month exemption period also limits the short - term market impact [2] 5. Strategy - Oil prices will experience short - term range - bound fluctuations and medium - term bearish allocation [3]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The current crude oil market has two major contradictions: China's excessive crude oil imports lead to high inventory as import volume does not match processing volume and refined oil consumption growth; the US's excessive crude oil exports lead to inventory decline as export volume does not match production growth. Overall, there was a global supply surplus and inventory accumulation in the first half of this year, mainly due to the transfer of inventory from OECD countries to China. The market shows a differentiated pattern, with the traditional view of Chinese crude oil inventory as demand and low OECD inventories, which supports oil prices. The trend of stronger prices in the West and weaker in the East remains unchanged, and China's high imports do not reflect real domestic demand [2]. 3. Summary by Related Contents Market News and Important Data - **Crude Oil Futures Prices**: The August - delivery light - sweet crude oil futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 14 cents to $66.38 a barrel, a 0.21% decline; the September - delivery Brent crude oil futures in London fell 19 cents to $68.52 a barrel, a 0.28% decline. The SC crude oil main contract closed unchanged at 517 yuan per barrel [1]. - **Emirates Fuel Inventory**: As of the week ending July 14, the total refined oil inventory at the Port of Fujairah in the UAE was 19.554 million barrels, a decrease of 1.131 million barrels from the previous week. Light distillate inventory decreased by 736,000 barrels to 7.388 million barrels, medium distillate inventory increased by 287,000 barrels to 2.593 million barrels, and heavy residual fuel oil inventory decreased by 682,000 barrels to 9.573 million barrels [1]. - **National Power Load**: On July 16, 2025, the national maximum power load exceeded 1.5 billion kilowatts for the first time, reaching 1.506 billion kilowatts, an increase of 55 million kilowatts compared to last year's maximum load. The national power load has remained at a high level this week, and the energy supply guarantee work for the peak summer season has entered a critical period [1]. - **Saudi Arabia's Oil Production Report**: Saudi Arabia adopted a new measurement standard to report June's crude oil production to meet quota requirements. Its "market supply" was 9.36 million barrels per day, while actual production was 9.75 million barrels per day. Without adjustment, its production would have exceeded the target by 385,000 barrels per day [1]. - **EIA Report (Week of July 11)**: US crude oil exports increased by 761,000 barrels per day to 3.518 million barrels per day; domestic production decreased by 100,000 barrels to 13.375 million barrels per day; commercial crude oil inventory (excluding strategic reserves) decreased by 3.859 million barrels to 422 million barrels, a 0.91% decline; the four - week average supply of US petroleum products was 20.262 million barrels per day, a 1.1% decrease compared to the same period last year; strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) inventory decreased by 300,000 barrels to 402.7 million barrels, a 0.07% decline; commercial crude oil imports (excluding strategic reserves) were 6.379 million barrels per day, an increase of 366,000 barrels per day compared to the previous week [1]. - **US President's Statement**: US President Trump said the US may strictly implement the trade agreement with Japan and may reach another agreement with India in the future. He hopes the oil price can be lower and thinks $64 per barrel is a good price [1]. Investment Logic The two major contradictions in the crude oil market lead to a differentiated market pattern and support oil prices, with the West - strong and East - weak trend remaining [2]. Strategy Oil prices will be range - bound in the short term and a short - position allocation is recommended in the medium term [3]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Oil prices will fluctuate within a range, and a medium - term short - position allocation is recommended [3] Group 2: Core Viewpoints - Saudi Arabia's recent production increase is not for market share but due to the Middle East conflict. It is to transfer supply overseas, not directly increase sales to customers. This operation is not sustainable as the conflict eases. Saudi Arabia is still restrained in production increase and aims to balance Trump's call to lower oil prices with its own interests [2] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data - WTI August crude oil futures fell $1.47, a nearly 2.15% decline, to $66.98 per barrel. Brent September crude oil futures dropped $1.15, over a 1.63% decline, to $69.21 per barrel [1] - Trump said the US will send more weapons to Ukraine, produce weapons independently, and have Ukraine bear the cost. If no agreement is reached in 50 days, the US will impose 100% secondary tariffs on Russia, possibly targeting countries buying Russian oil [1] - The IEA monthly report raised oil supply forecasts for this and next year. Iranian crude production and exports declined in June, while Saudi oil production soared in June, far exceeding OPEC+ quotas [1] - OPEC Secretary - General Haitham Al Ghais said OPEC and its allies are increasing oil production. Third - quarter oil demand will be "very strong", and supply - demand will be in a tight balance in the following months. The organization expects 2025 demand to increase by 1.3 million barrels per day year - on - year. However, OPEC lowered its global oil demand forecast for the next 4 years last week [1] Investment Logic - Saudi Arabia's production increase is not for market share but due to the Middle East conflict and will not be sustainable [2] Strategy - Oil prices will have a range - bound movement, and a medium - term short - position allocation is advised [3]