中欧合作深化

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出口延续边际放缓,关注中欧合作深化
China Post Securities· 2025-10-17 09:45
Export Trends - In September, China's export growth rate was 8.3%, influenced by a low base effect, but the two-year compound growth rate fell to 5.27%, down 1.21 percentage points from the previous value[9] - Exports to the US continued to decline, with a growth rate of -27.03%, although this was an improvement of 6.09 percentage points from the previous month[12] - Exports to the EU and ASEAN showed marginal support for overall export growth, with growth rates of 14.18% and 15.62% respectively, although both showed signs of slowing down[14] Import Trends - In September, China's import growth rate was 7.4%, an increase of 5.9 percentage points from the previous value, exceeding market expectations[22] - The main contributors to the import growth were the EU, Japan, and South Korea, with respective contributions of 0.98%, 1.25%, and 0.93%[24] Market Outlook - Short-term export growth is expected to face downward pressure due to ongoing trade tensions, particularly with the US, which may impact overall economic growth[3] - The restructuring of global trade led by the US may create challenges for China's exports, but there are signs of continued optimization in export structure, particularly with ASEAN and Belt and Road countries[26]