证券研究报告：宏观报告 发布时间：2026-02-02 研究所 分析师:袁野 SAC 登记编号:S1340523010002 Email:yuanye@cnpsec.com 研究助理:苑西恒 SAC 登记编号:S1340124020005 Email:yuanxiheng@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《2025 年工业利润迎正增长，高技术 制造领跑显结构活力》 - 2026.1.28 宏观研究 企业利润被动收缩趋势持续，投资止跌企稳仍需政 策呵护 核心观点 从 1 月 PMI 数据来看，（1）大宗商品价格持续上涨，原材料价 格涨幅高于产成品价格涨幅，企业利润空间被动收缩呈现趋势性特 征，既阻碍供需再平衡进程，亦可能拖累稳就业、稳预期政策成效。 （2）建筑业景气度较为明显回落，不仅受低温天气和春节临近等季 节性因素影响，也在一定程度上反映出当前地方项目建设节奏偏慢、 投资意愿尚待进一步提振的现实状况，投资止跌企稳仍需政策呵护。 我们理解，（1）短期经济基本面是利好债券市场，估计利率中枢 或将温和下行。（2）在权益市场方面，工业企业利润修复承压，盈利 驱动逻辑弱化，若无新的增量信息，估值驱动亦难有提振，短 ...

Export Trends - In September, China's export growth rate was 8.3%, influenced by a low base effect, but the two-year compound growth rate fell to 5.27%, down 1.21 percentage points from the previous value[9] - Exports to the US continued to decline, with a growth rate of -27.03%, although this was an improvement of 6.09 percentage points from the previous month[12] - Exports to the EU and ASEAN showed marginal support for overall export growth, with growth rates of 14.18% and 15.62% respectively, although both showed signs of slowing down[14] Import Trends - In September, China's import growth rate was 7.4%, an increase of 5.9 percentage points from the previous value, exceeding market expectations[22] - The main contributors to the import growth were the EU, Japan, and South Korea, with respective contributions of 0.98%, 1.25%, and 0.93%[24] Market Outlook - Short-term export growth is expected to face downward pressure due to ongoing trade tensions, particularly with the US, which may impact overall economic growth[3] - The restructuring of global trade led by the US may create challenges for China's exports, but there are signs of continued optimization in export structure, particularly with ASEAN and Belt and Road countries[26]