今日早参 2025 年 9 月 05 日 易峘 首席宏观经济学家 邮箱：evayi@htsc.com 林晓明 邮箱：linxiaoming@htsc.com 何康 策略首席研究员兼金融工程联席首席 研究员 座机：021-28972202 邮箱：hekang@htsc.com 今日热点 宏观：金价再创新高，重温"长牛逻辑" 过去两周，金价在短暂盘整后再度向上突破，伦敦金现累计上涨近 7%至 3,578 美元/盎司的历史高点，而纽约商品交易所（COMEX）金价触及 3,640 美元/盎司。本文重申黄金"长牛"的逻辑及其独特的长期配置价值（参见 《黄金：再论"长牛"逻辑》，2025/2/11）。在现有全球地缘政治逻辑和金融 体系都在发生深刻变革的背景下，黄金价格虽然可能经历短期波动，但"拐 点"或远未来到，长期表现仍然可期。 风险提示：美联储货币政策超预期，地缘政治风险上升。 研报发布日期：2025-09-04 金融工程首席研究员 座机：0755-82080134 沈洋 SAC:S0570525070013 免责声明和披露以及分析师声明是报告的一部分，请务必一起阅读。 研究员 易峘 SAC:S05705201000 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the significant shift in global trade dynamics, particularly in East Asia, as Japan seeks to leverage China's success in negotiating tariff reductions with the U.S. [1][3] - The U.S. has revealed its vulnerabilities in trade negotiations, particularly its unilateral approach, which has proven ineffective against China's strategic countermeasures [3][6] - Japan's demand for the elimination of all tariffs from the U.S. reflects a calculated strategy to exploit the current geopolitical landscape and pressure the U.S. for concessions [6][7] Group 2 - The ongoing tariff battle is reshaping global trade negotiation rules, breaking the notion of "American exceptionalism" and encouraging other economies to adopt similar strategies against the U.S. [9][11] - The reduction of U.S. tariffs on China to 10% signifies a setback for the U.S.'s "decoupling" strategy, prompting global companies to reassess their supply chain strategies [9][11] - China's strategic approach in the trade war, including targeted countermeasures and maintaining control over negotiation agendas, showcases its ability to influence global trade dynamics [11]