Export Trends - In September, China's export growth rate was 8.3%, influenced by a low base effect, but the two-year compound growth rate fell to 5.27%, down 1.21 percentage points from the previous value[9] - Exports to the US continued to decline, with a growth rate of -27.03%, although this was an improvement of 6.09 percentage points from the previous month[12] - Exports to the EU and ASEAN showed marginal support for overall export growth, with growth rates of 14.18% and 15.62% respectively, although both showed signs of slowing down[14] Import Trends - In September, China's import growth rate was 7.4%, an increase of 5.9 percentage points from the previous value, exceeding market expectations[22] - The main contributors to the import growth were the EU, Japan, and South Korea, with respective contributions of 0.98%, 1.25%, and 0.93%[24] Market Outlook - Short-term export growth is expected to face downward pressure due to ongoing trade tensions, particularly with the US, which may impact overall economic growth[3] - The restructuring of global trade led by the US may create challenges for China's exports, but there are signs of continued optimization in export structure, particularly with ASEAN and Belt and Road countries[26]

Export Performance - In May, China's export growth rate was 4.8%, slightly below the expected 6.24% and the seasonal average of 5.66%[8] - The two-year compound growth rate for exports in May was 6.1%, an increase of 1.44 percentage points from April's 4.66%[8] - Exports to the US saw a significant decline, with a year-on-year growth rate of -34.52%, negatively impacting overall export growth[21] Trade Partnerships - Exports to ASEAN countries contributed positively, with a year-on-year increase of 2.5%, while exports to the EU also showed improvement, contributing 1.76%[9] - The Belt and Road Initiative countries saw a year-on-year export growth of 12.26%, contributing 5.97% to overall exports[11] - Non-US trade partnerships have strengthened, with exports to non-US countries becoming a crucial support for maintaining export resilience[9] Key Export Products - High-tech products and machinery exports remained strong, with machinery exports growing by 7.17% year-on-year[12] - Integrated circuit exports continued to show high growth, while exports of mobile phones and LCD panels experienced a slowdown[12] - Transportation equipment exports were stable, with automotive exports growing by 13.73% and auto parts by 43.65%[16] Import Trends - In May, imports decreased by 3.4% year-on-year, significantly below the market expectation of a 0.31% increase[18] - Imports from the US, Japan, and ASEAN countries showed negative contributions, with the US contributing -1.09% to the overall import growth[20] Market Outlook - The report maintains a cautious but optimistic outlook for exports, suggesting that the worst impacts of US tariffs may have passed, with potential for recovery in US-China trade negotiations before the tariff exemption period ends on July 8[22][24] - The market sentiment remains cautious due to uncertainties surrounding US tariff policies, but there is potential for structural valuation recovery if negotiations progress positively[26]

Export Performance - In April, exports increased by 8.1% year-on-year, exceeding expectations and seasonal levels, with a cumulative export value of $1,169.06 billion for the first four months, reflecting a 6.4% year-on-year growth[11][1]. - The export growth was supported by a significant increase in trade with ASEAN and the EU, with ASEAN becoming China's largest trading partner, showing a 20.8% year-on-year growth in exports to this region[17][1]. - Exports to the US saw a notable decline of 21.03% year-on-year, primarily due to the impact of the US's 145% tariffs on Chinese goods[26][1]. Trade Dynamics - The trade policies of the US have led to a decrease in export share to the US, while shares to the EU and ASEAN have increased, indicating a strengthening of cooperation among non-US countries[14][1]. - The overall trade environment remains optimistic, with potential for policy adjustments in July that could influence export dynamics[39][1]. Key Risks - Future export performance faces uncertainties, particularly regarding the extension of the US tariff exemption period and the outcomes of ongoing trade negotiations between the US and China[42][1]. - Risks include the potential escalation of global trade tensions and geopolitical conflicts, which could adversely affect trade flows and economic stability[43][1].