中短端票息+适度下沉策略
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9 月票息资产挖掘图谱:聚焦回调后中短端票息价值
GUOTAI HAITONG SECURITIES· 2025-09-16 13:28
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - After the bond market correction, seize the credit coupon allocation opportunities, and the strategy of "short - to medium - term coupon + moderate credit spread widening" has high certainty. The coupon income - to - risk ratio of short - to medium - term (within 3 years) credit bonds has significantly improved, while long - term (over 5 years) credit bonds face triple pressures and weak trading opportunities [1][4][30]. Summary by Directory 1. Urban Investment Bonds: There is Still a Large Space for Coupon Asset Mining - As of September 11, 2025, the scale of outstanding urban investment bonds was about 15.48 trillion yuan, with public urban investment bonds accounting for 53%. The scale of urban investment bonds with a valuation above 2.3% was 4.42 trillion yuan, accounting for 28.54% of the total [4][8]. - In public urban investment bonds, provinces like Qinghai, Guizhou, Liaoning, Yunnan, and Shaanxi have high weighted average valuation yields. In private urban investment bonds, Guizhou, Qinghai, and Yunnan have weighted average valuation yields above 2.9% [8][9]. - Based on the distribution of public urban investment bonds with a valuation above 2.3%, different regions are divided into four categories according to the proportion of high - valuation bonds. From the perspective of the coupon strategy, different regions are recommended for different durations [10][11][12]. 2. Financial Bonds: Focus on Bank Subordinated Bonds and Insurance Perpetual Bonds - As of September 11, 2025, the scale of outstanding financial bonds was about 15.18 trillion yuan. The scale of financial bonds with a valuation above 2.3% was 1.68 trillion yuan, accounting for 11% of the total [4][18]. - Bank subordinated bonds and insurance perpetual bonds are recommended. High - valuation bonds in bank secondary capital bonds are concentrated in 3 - 5 - year AA+/AA/AA - and over - 5 - year AAA/AAA - varieties; in bank perpetual bonds, they are concentrated in 3 - 5 - year AA+/AA and within - 5 - year AA - varieties; in insurance perpetual bonds, they are concentrated in 3 - 5 - year AA+/AA varieties [18][19]. 3. Industrial Bonds: The Utilities and Transportation Sectors Can Try Longer Durations - As of September 11, 2025, the scale of outstanding non - default industrial bonds was about 13.99 trillion yuan. The scale of industrial bonds with a valuation above 2.3% was 2.85 trillion yuan, accounting for 20.36% of the total [4][22]. - Industries such as transportation, utilities, non - bank finance, comprehensive, real estate, and building decoration have a bond stock scale of over one trillion yuan. Real estate and non - bank finance industries have relatively high average valuation yields. In terms of liquidity, industries such as commerce and retail, transportation, coal, and utilities are more active [22]. - Real estate has the highest proportion and largest absolute scale of high - valuation bonds, mainly concentrated in within - 3 - year AA/AA(2) varieties. Long - term (over 7 years) high - valuation industrial bonds are mainly concentrated in AAA+/AAA/AAA - grades, with more stocks in industries such as comprehensive, utilities, and transportation [22]. 4. Credit Bond Selection Strategy: Focus on the Value of Short - to Medium - Term Coupons after the Correction - After the market correction, the yield of some credit bonds has fallen to a more attractive range. The coupon income - to - risk ratio of short - to medium - term (within 3 years) varieties has significantly improved, and the "short - to medium - term coupon + moderate credit spread widening" strategy has high certainty [30]. - Long - term (over 5 years) credit bonds face triple pressures of "low trading volume, weak liquidity, and concentrated disturbing factors", and the market sentiment is cautious. Some credit bonds with a remaining term of 1 - 3 years/3 - 5 years and a valuation greater than 2.3% are selected for investors' reference [30][31].