1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - In the short - to - medium - term, the start of school and Mid - Autumn Festival stocking support the short - term strength of egg prices, but the current chicken culling is less than expected and the cold - storage egg inventory pressure is high. In the second half of the month, the stocking intensity is expected to weaken, and one should not be overly optimistic about further price increases. In the long - term, if the chicken culling by farmers is less than expected, the supply pressure in the fourth quarter will re - emerge [6]. - It is not recommended to chase long positions. Before large - scale concentrated chicken culling occurs, the idea of shorting on highs remains unchanged. Farmers can also consider selling - hedge opportunities to lock in breeding profits after the 2607 and 2608 contracts rise [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Futures Performance - Today, egg futures contracts show a pattern of near - term strength and long - term weakness. The 2511 contract reached a maximum of 3197 yuan/500kg during the session and closed at 3169 yuan/500kg, with a gain of 3.97%. The 2605 contract fell 1.52% to 3377 yuan/500kg [6]. Spot Performance - The stocking peak season supports the continued increase in egg prices over the weekend. On the 14th, the egg price in Guantao, Handan, Hebei was 3.44 yuan/jin, up 0.11 yuan/jin from last Friday. Today, the price of pink eggs in Guantao, Handan, Hebei was 3.6 yuan/jin, up 0.16 yuan/jin from the previous day [6]. Analysis Logic - Short - to - medium - term: School openings and Mid - Autumn Festival stocking support the short - term strength of the spot market, but current chicken culling is less than expected and cold - storage egg inventory pressure is high. In the second half of the month, stocking intensity is expected to weaken, and the upside potential of spot prices should not be overly optimistic [6]. - Long - term: Current breeding profits have turned positive again, and the average age of culled chickens is still relatively high. If the scale of chicken culling by farmers is less than expected, the supply pressure in the fourth quarter will re - emerge [6]. Trading Strategy - Do not chase long positions. Before large - scale concentrated chicken culling occurs, maintain the idea of shorting on highs. The pressure levels for the 2511 contract have shifted up to 3200 - 3270, the 2512 contract to 3300 - 3360, the 2601 contract to 3400 - 3450, and the 2602 contract to 3150 - 3160. Farmers can also pay attention to the selling - hedge opportunities to lock in breeding profits after the 2607 and 2608 contracts rise [6].

Report Overview - Report Title: Zhengxin Futures Egg Weekly Report 2025 - 8 - 18 [2] - Research Group: Zhengxin Futures Research Institute - Agricultural Products Research Group [2] Industry Investment Rating - Supply: Bearish [3] - Demand: Neutral [3] - Profit: Neutral [3] - Price and Volume: Neutral [3] - Strategy: Bearish [3] Core Viewpoints - This week, the price of culled chickens from sample breeding enterprises continued to decline, the culling age fluctuated slightly, the price difference between large and small eggs oscillated at a high level, and the price of chicks continued to drop [3] - The high price difference between large and small eggs and the relatively strong price of culled chickens indicate more new additions and fewer culls, which may suppress the price elasticity in the traditional consumption peak season [3] - This year, the capacity reduction is insufficient, the Mid - Autumn Festival stocking is premature, and the egg - laying rate decline due to high temperature is getting smaller, so the rebound momentum in the peak season is limited [3] - This week, the sales volume in the main sales areas and the shipping volume in the main production areas decreased slightly, and the inventory in the circulation and production links also decreased slightly [3] - Traders are afraid of price drops, purchase cautiously, and the overall sales in the production areas are a bit slow [3] - The breeding profit has rebounded slightly and is near the break - even point, and the egg - feed ratio is at the lowest level in the same period of the past 4 years [3] - The egg futures contracts in the delivery month are slightly at a discount, while the other contracts are slightly at a premium [3] - The price difference between the near and far - term egg futures has dropped significantly and is at a moderately high level [3] - Due to the change of the main contract of egg futures, the net short position of institutions in September decreased, while that in October increased [3] - Under the background of high inventory, the near - term supply pressure is large, and the far - term situation will gradually improve with the strengthening of capacity reduction expectations [3] - Before the capacity is cleared due to breeding losses, the pattern of near - term weakness and far - term strength of egg futures is expected to continue, and it is recommended to pay attention to the reverse spread opportunity of egg 9 - 1 [3] Summary by Directory Price and Volume Analysis - Sub - sections include spot price (comparison between main production area price and main sales area price), egg basis (basis of each egg futures contract), egg price difference (price difference of each egg futures contract), and futures institutional net position (long - to - short ratio of institutional positions in September and October egg futures contracts) [4][7][10][13] Supply Analysis - Covers aspects such as egg - laying hen inventory and its structure, culling situation (culled chicken price and average culling age), replenishment situation (price of commercial egg - laying chicks and hatching egg utilization rate), and size - code situation (prices of large and small eggs and seasonal chart of price difference) [16][18][20][23] Demand Analysis - Includes发货量&销量 (sales volume in main sales areas and shipping volume in main production areas), inventory (production - link inventory and circulation - link inventory), and substitutes (seasonal charts of egg - to - pork price ratio and egg - to - vegetable price ratio) [26][28][31] Profit Analysis - Comprises breeding profit (current profit vs. expected profit and comprehensive egg - laying hen breeding profit) and egg - feed ratio (egg - feed ratio and its break - even point, and seasonal chart of egg - feed ratio) [34][37]