备货支撑金价走局 期货盘面合约近强远弱 今日鸡蛋期货合约近强远弱,2511合约盘中最高涨至3197元/500kg, 截至收稿为3169元/500kg,涨幅3.97%;2605合约跌幅1.52%至3377元 /500kg。 现货表现 备货旺季支撑周末蛋价涨势延续,14日河北邯郸馆陶鸡蛋价格为 3.44元/斤,较上周五涨0.11元/斤。今日河北邯郸馆陶粉蛋价格为3.6元 「,较前一日涨0.16元/斤。 分析逻辑 75年09月15日 期货表现 交易策略 不建议追多,大规模集中淘鸡发生前维持高空思路不变。2511合约压 力上移至3200-3270,2512令约压力上移至3300-3360,2601合约压力 3400-3450. 2602合约压力3150-3160。另外,养殖企业也可关注2607 2608合约冲高后锁定养殖利润的卖保机会。 从业资格:F0242716 交易咨询资格:Z0011864 联系电话0371-65617380 格林大华 期货研究院 证监许可 [2011] 1288 公开资料, 我公司对这些信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证,不保证报告信息已做最新变更,也不保证分析师做出的任何 六年女生任何少年 在 ...

Report Overview - Report Title: Zhengxin Futures Egg Weekly Report 2025 - 8 - 18 [2] - Research Group: Zhengxin Futures Research Institute - Agricultural Products Research Group [2] Industry Investment Rating - Supply: Bearish [3] - Demand: Neutral [3] - Profit: Neutral [3] - Price and Volume: Neutral [3] - Strategy: Bearish [3] Core Viewpoints - This week, the price of culled chickens from sample breeding enterprises continued to decline, the culling age fluctuated slightly, the price difference between large and small eggs oscillated at a high level, and the price of chicks continued to drop [3] - The high price difference between large and small eggs and the relatively strong price of culled chickens indicate more new additions and fewer culls, which may suppress the price elasticity in the traditional consumption peak season [3] - This year, the capacity reduction is insufficient, the Mid - Autumn Festival stocking is premature, and the egg - laying rate decline due to high temperature is getting smaller, so the rebound momentum in the peak season is limited [3] - This week, the sales volume in the main sales areas and the shipping volume in the main production areas decreased slightly, and the inventory in the circulation and production links also decreased slightly [3] - Traders are afraid of price drops, purchase cautiously, and the overall sales in the production areas are a bit slow [3] - The breeding profit has rebounded slightly and is near the break - even point, and the egg - feed ratio is at the lowest level in the same period of the past 4 years [3] - The egg futures contracts in the delivery month are slightly at a discount, while the other contracts are slightly at a premium [3] - The price difference between the near and far - term egg futures has dropped significantly and is at a moderately high level [3] - Due to the change of the main contract of egg futures, the net short position of institutions in September decreased, while that in October increased [3] - Under the background of high inventory, the near - term supply pressure is large, and the far - term situation will gradually improve with the strengthening of capacity reduction expectations [3] - Before the capacity is cleared due to breeding losses, the pattern of near - term weakness and far - term strength of egg futures is expected to continue, and it is recommended to pay attention to the reverse spread opportunity of egg 9 - 1 [3] Summary by Directory Price and Volume Analysis - Sub - sections include spot price (comparison between main production area price and main sales area price), egg basis (basis of each egg futures contract), egg price difference (price difference of each egg futures contract), and futures institutional net position (long - to - short ratio of institutional positions in September and October egg futures contracts) [4][7][10][13] Supply Analysis - Covers aspects such as egg - laying hen inventory and its structure, culling situation (culled chicken price and average culling age), replenishment situation (price of commercial egg - laying chicks and hatching egg utilization rate), and size - code situation (prices of large and small eggs and seasonal chart of price difference) [16][18][20][23] Demand Analysis - Includes发货量&销量 (sales volume in main sales areas and shipping volume in main production areas), inventory (production - link inventory and circulation - link inventory), and substitutes (seasonal charts of egg - to - pork price ratio and egg - to - vegetable price ratio) [26][28][31] Profit Analysis - Comprises breeding profit (current profit vs. expected profit and comprehensive egg - laying hen breeding profit) and egg - feed ratio (egg - feed ratio and its break - even point, and seasonal chart of egg - feed ratio) [34][37]