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研客专栏 | 生猪:逢节必跌魔咒再现
对冲研投· 2025-10-10 12:06
以下文章来源于大地期货研究院 ,作者马爽 大地期货研究院 . 大地期货研究院官方订阅号 二 次育肥: 中性偏空 仍以出为主,低价局部有零星进场,整体还是偏谨 慎。 收抛储 : 中性 本周 10 月 10 日挂牌轮换收储中央储备冻猪肉 1.5 万吨。 文 | 马爽 来源 | 大地期货研究院 编辑 | 杨兰 审核 | 浦电路交易员 观点小结 核心观点: 震荡偏空 供强需弱格局不变。双节期间猪价全面下跌进一步反 映了当下供应增量明显的弱现实,近端供应压力持续,而现阶段需求增量难 以匹配供给增量,基本面暂无明显利好驱动,猪价探底或未结束。近月随现 货偏弱看待,临近交割月盘面尚处升水状态,操作上维持逢高偏空的思路, 关注出栏节奏和情绪表现。 能繁产能 : 近 空远多 行业进入亏损状态,当下利润和政策角度来看去产具 有一定理论上的驱动,关注逐月能繁及淘母数量表现。 商品猪供给: 中性 偏空 企业端出栏有被动后移表现,出栏计划增量继续体 现,体重尚且高于同期,近端出栏压力延续。 屠宰开工: 中性 节后需求惯性回落,温和复苏状态下短期需求增量有限。 成本及利润:中性偏多 近月养殖成本变化不大,利润主要受猪价主导。当下 各环节 ...
生猪市场周报:基本面偏弱,生猪价格承压-20251010
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-10-10 09:05
瑞达期货研究院 「2025.10.10」 「 周度要点小结」 3 生猪市场周报 基本面偏弱,生猪价格承压 研究员:张昕 期货从业资格号F03109641 期货投资咨询从业证Z001845 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 联系电话:059586778969 业务咨询 添加客服 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 行情回顾:生猪价格节后大幅低开下行,主力合约2511合约周度下跌8.38%。 行情展望:供应端,考虑仔猪和能繁母猪存栏数据周期,以及前期部分规模场出栏计划推迟至10月 出栏,近月出栏压力犹存。此外,亏损以及悲观情绪下,散户积极出栏。需求端,节后需求惯性下 降,终端采购意愿减弱,屠宰企业开工减少。短期生猪供需维持偏松格局难以扭转,生猪价格弱势震 荡运行。操作上,建议生猪2601合约偏空交易或进行生猪期货反套操作。 「 期货市场情况」 本周期货下跌 图1、大连生猪期货价格走势图 来源:文化财经 瑞达期货研究院 生猪价格低开下行,主力合约2511合约周度下跌8.38%。 4 「 期货市场情况」 本周期货净持仓净空增加 期货仓单0张 图2、生猪前20名持仓变化 来源:wind 瑞达期货研 ...
生猪投资周报:出栏量兑现,产能出清仍需时间-20250929
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-09-29 06:51
投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31 号 出栏量兑现,产能出清仍需时间 投资观点: 震荡偏空 报告日期 2025-9-29 季度报告 ⚫ 投资建议 近期现货体现供应增加,持续疲软,下游承接力度有限,近月 合约升水现货,期货或将持续维持弱势。受出栏量预估增至明年 2 月的预期,01 合约仍受产能增加约束上涨空间。若冬季出现疫病, 短期仍有出栏压力。目前仔猪已经连续亏损一个月,仔猪价格是生 猪价格的前置指标,若维持目前仔猪、生猪亏损状态,可关注远月 07 合约多头的价值投资。 风险提示 生猪疫病、消费需求 生猪(LH) 分析师:杨璐琳 从业资格证号:F3042528 投资咨询证号:Z0015194 数据来源:WIND 往期相关报告 1.1 现货行情回顾 1.出栏稳步增加,现货持续疲软 2025.09.18 2.预期现货兑现,关注差能修复 2024.07.31 ⚫ 供给:下半年能繁母猪存栏每个月变化较小,根据农业农村部数 据,7 月末全国能繁母猪存栏量达 4042 万头,若政府调控能繁母猪 能落地,母猪或降至 3942 万头,仍为 3900 万头正常保有量之上。 三季度出栏量逐月明显增加,体现春天仔猪产能的修 ...
广发期货《农产品》日报-20250929
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-09-29 05:15
| 油脂产业期现日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 [2011] 1292号 2025年9月29日 | | | | 壬泽辉 | Z0019938 | | 臣治 | | | | | | | | 9月26日 | | 0月25日 | 涨跌 | 张跌幅 | | 现价 | 江苏一级 8470 | | 8440 | 30 | 0.36% | | 期价 | Y2601 8162 | | 8192 | -30 | -0.37% | | 墓差 | Y2601 308 | | 248 | 60 | 24.19% | | 现货墓差报价 | 01+220 江苏1月 | | 01+230 | -10 | r | | 仓单 | 25534 | | 25534 | 0 | 0.00% | | 棕櫚油 | | | | | | | | 9月26日 | | 9月25日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | | 现价 | 广东24度 9230 | | 9170 | 60 | 0.65% | | 期分 | P2601 9236 | | 9222 | 14 | ...
建信期货生猪日报-20250924
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-09-24 01:49
Report Information - Report Name: Pig Daily Report [1] - Date: September 24, 2025 [2] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The overall supply and demand of live pigs in the spot market are loose, and the price remains weak. Although demand has increased, the continuous increase is not obvious, and the supply pressure of slaughter is relatively greater. In the futures market, the supply of live pigs before the Spring Festival is expected to increase slightly, and the 2511 and 2601 contracts are mainly dragged down by the weak spot market [10]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Futures Market**: On the 23rd, the main 2511 contract of live pigs opened slightly lower, then rose and fell back, fluctuating downward, and closed in the negative at the end of the session. The highest was 12,840 yuan/ton, the lowest was 12,655 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 12,665 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.48% from the previous day. The total open interest of the index increased by 2,354 lots to 249,995 lots [9]. - **Spot Market**: On the 23rd, the average price of ternary pigs outside the country was 12.64 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.03 yuan/kg from the previous day [9]. - **Supply - Side Situation**: In September, the planned sales volume of sample breeding enterprises was 25.7 million heads, an increase of 970,000 heads or 3.92% compared with the actual slaughter in August, with a daily average increase of 7.39%. The slaughter volume may continue to increase significantly. The utilization rate of the second - fattening pens remains high, the slaughter pressure is large, the slaughter progress at the end of the month accelerates, and the slaughter weight decreases slightly. In the long term, the slaughter of live pigs before the Spring Festival may still maintain a slight growth trend [10]. - **Demand - Side Situation**: The price difference between fat and standard pigs has slightly widened, and the fattening cost is still low. Currently, the second - fattening is mainly in a wait - and - see state. Although the weather has turned cooler, the continuous increase in demand is not obvious, the sales of white strips are slow, the orders of slaughtering enterprises have slightly increased, and the operating rate and slaughter volume of slaughtering enterprises have slightly increased. On September 23rd, the slaughter volume of sample slaughtering enterprises was 154,000 heads, an increase of 8,000 heads from the previous day, 48,000 heads week - on - week, and 129,000 heads month - on - month [10]. 2. Industry News - As of September 18th, the average profit per head of self - breeding and self - raising pigs was 7.7 yuan/head, a decrease of 46 yuan/head week - on - week; the average profit per head of purchasing piglets for breeding was - 246.6 yuan/head, a decrease of 70.8 yuan/head week - on - week [11][13] 3. Data Overview - **15kg Piglet Price**: In the week of September 18th, the average market sales price of 15kg piglets was 358 yuan/head, a decrease of 36 yuan/head from the previous week [17]. - **Price Difference between Fat and Standard Pigs**: In the week of September 18th, the price difference between 150 - kg fat pigs and standard pigs was 0.16 yuan/jin, an increase of 0.03 yuan/jin week - on - week [17]. - **Fattening Cost**: The cost of fattening from 110 kg to 140 kg this week was 12.71 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.47 yuan/kg from the previous week; the cost of fattening from 125 kg to 150 kg was 12.94 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.58 yuan/kg from the previous week [17]. - **Slaughtering Enterprise Operating Rate**: In the week of September 18th, the operating rate of slaughtering enterprises was 31.77%, an increase of 0.37 percentage points from the previous week and 2.22 percentage points year - on - year. The weekly operating rate of enterprises fluctuated in the range of 31.54 - 31.80 [17]. - **National Average Slaughter Weight of Live Pigs**: As of the week of September 18th, the national average slaughter weight of live pigs was 128.45 kg, an increase of 0.13 kg from the previous week, with a month - on - month increase of 0.10% [17].
生猪周报:出栏体重略增,猪价震荡偏弱-20250922
Rong Da Qi Huo ( Zheng Zhou )· 2025-09-22 01:36
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Spot prices are expected to fluctuate weakly. Based on sow and piglet data, there may still be a slight increase in hog slaughter volume by December, and with ample supply, it's difficult for hog prices to rise significantly and continuously. The fat - standard price difference exists, which may enhance farmers' willingness to increase weight. If the price weakness persists, a negative cycle may form, and if so, hog prices are expected to rebound at the end of the year. One could consider a reverse spread of the 11 - 01 contract [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures End - **主力合约基差情况**: Affected by the weak performance of the spot market, this week's futures prices fluctuated weakly [2]. - **各合约价格变化情况**: The prices of far - month contracts fluctuated and adjusted [5]. - **月间价差变化**: The inter - month spreads fluctuated and adjusted. With the weakness of the spot market, the 11 - 01 contract showed a reverse spread trend [7][10]. 3.2 Spot End - **猪价与宰量**: This week, the slaughter volume increased steadily, and hog prices fluctuated weakly [13]. - **区域价差**: Regional price differences were relatively reasonable [15]. - **肥标价差**: The fat - standard price difference fluctuated and adjusted. Attention should be paid to whether the fat - standard price difference can strengthen after the weather turns cool, which may enhance the weight - increasing willingness of scattered farmers if it does [17]. - **鲜销与毛白价差**: Terminal consumption was relatively stable year - on - year [19]. - **相关产品比价与鲜冻价差**: The cost - effectiveness of pork was average. The fresh - frozen price difference of No. 2 meat weakened, and the cost - effectiveness of frozen products was lower than that of fresh products [21]. - **养殖利润**: Self - breeding and self - raising still had profits, while purchasing piglets for fattening was in a slight loss state [23]. - **出栏体重**: The average slaughter weight increased this week [25]. 3.3 Capacity End - **能繁母猪存栏量**: According to Ministry of Agriculture data, the national inventory of reproductive sows at the end of July was 40.42 million, with a month - on - month and year - on - year increase of 0.0%. Yongyi Consulting data showed that in August, the inventory of reproductive sows in its sample 1 increased by 0.02% month - on - month, compared with 0.14% in the previous month. Mysteel data showed that in August, the inventory of reproductive sows in its sample large - scale enterprises decreased by 0.83% month - on - month, compared with an increase of 0.01% in the previous month [27]. - **母猪淘汰情况**: This week, the price of culled sows showed a weak trend. The slaughter volume of culled sows increased month - on - month in August, indicating an increase in the market's enthusiasm for capacity reduction [29]. - **母猪生产效率与新生健仔数**: In August, the number of healthy newborn piglets increased by 0.15% month - on - month (previous value: + 0.06%), corresponding to an overall fluctuating increase in the volume of hogs to be slaughtered in February next year (calculated based on a 6 - month fattening period) [31]. - **母猪、仔猪补栏积极性**: This week, the price of 15 - kg piglets was stable with a weak trend, and the price of 50 - kg binary sows was weak [33]. 3.4 Slaughter End - The slaughter volume continued to increase month - on - month. According to Ministry of Agriculture data, the slaughter volume of designated enterprises in July was 31.66 million, a month - on - month increase of 5.3% and a year - on - year increase of 30.4%. In terms of frozen products, the market will gradually enter the de - stocking stage, and its impact on hog prices will change from positive to neutral - negative [35]. 3.5 Import End - In August 2025, the pork import volume was about 80,000 tons, a decrease of about 7,600 tons compared with the previous month. Currently, the scale of pork imports is limited, and its impact on domestic hog prices is relatively limited [38].
生猪周报:出栏体重略增猪价震荡偏弱-20250915
Rong Da Qi Huo ( Zheng Zhou )· 2025-09-15 05:36
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The spot price of live pigs is expected to adjust weakly and fluctuately. The supply of live pigs is likely to increase gradually by December, and it is difficult for pig prices to rise significantly and continuously under sufficient supply. If the price weakness continues, a negative cycle may form, and the pig price is expected to rise at the end of the year. One can consider conducting a reverse spread of the 11 - 01 contract at an appropriate time [1]. Summary by Directory 1. Futures End - **主力合约基差情况**: Affected by the weak performance of the spot market, the futures price fluctuated weakly this week. On September 12, 2025, the benchmark base difference of the main contract was 245 yuan/ton, compared with 745 yuan/ton on September 5 [2][3]. - **各合约价格变化情况**: The prices of far - month contracts fluctuated and adjusted [5]. - **月间价差变化**: The inter - month spread fluctuated and adjusted [8][11]. 2. Spot End - **猪价与宰量**: This week, the slaughter volume increased steadily, and the pig price fluctuated weakly [14]. - **区域价差**: The regional price difference was relatively reasonable [16]. - **肥标价差**: The spread between fat and standard pigs fluctuated weakly, which would increase the enthusiasm of farmers to reduce weight and sell pigs [18]. - **鲜销与毛白价差**: The terminal consumption was relatively stable year - on - year [20]. - **相关产品比价与鲜冻价差**: The cost - performance of pork was average. The spread between fresh and frozen No. 2 meat weakened, and the cost - performance of frozen products was lower than that of fresh products [22]. - **养殖利润**: The self - breeding and self - raising profit still existed, while the profit of purchasing piglets for fattening was slightly in the red [24]. - **出栏体重**: The average slaughter weight increased this week [26]. 3. Production Capacity End - **能繁母猪存栏量**: According to the Ministry of Agriculture, the national inventory of fertile sows was 40.42 million at the end of July, with a month - on - month and year - on - year increase of 0.0%. According to Yongyi Consulting, the inventory of fertile sows in its sample 1 increased by 0.02% month - on - month in August, compared with 0.14% in the previous month. According to My steel, the inventory of fertile sows in its sample large - scale enterprises decreased by 0.83% month - on - month in August, compared with an increase of 0.01% in the previous month [28]. - **母猪淘汰情况**: The price of culled sows weakened this week. The slaughter volume of culled sows increased month - on - month in August, and the enthusiasm for capacity reduction in the market increased [30]. - **母猪生产效率与新生健仔数**: In August, the number of healthy newborn piglets increased by 0.15% month - on - month (the previous value was + 0.06%), corresponding to an overall fluctuating increase in the number of slaughtered live pigs in February next year [32]. - **母猪、仔猪补栏积极性**: This week, the price of 15 - kg piglets was stable with a weak trend, and the price of 50 - kg binary sows was weak [34]. 4. Slaughter End - **屠宰量与屠宰利润等**: The slaughter volume continued to increase month - on - month. In July, the slaughter volume of designated enterprises was 31.66 million, a month - on - month increase of 5.3% and a year - on - year increase of 30.4%. The frozen product market will gradually enter the de - stocking stage, and its impact on pig prices will change from positive to neutral and bearish [36]. 5. Import End - In July 2025, the pork import volume was about 87,600 tons, a decrease of about 2,400 tons compared with the previous month. Currently, the scale of pork imports is limited, and its impact on domestic pig prices is relatively limited [39].
建信期货生猪日报-20250912
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-09-12 01:35
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall supply - demand situation of live pigs is loose, and the price remains weak. On the spot side, although terminal demand has increased with the start of schools and cooler weather, the supply pressure from hog sales is still relatively large. In the futures market, the supply of live pigs is expected to increase slightly before the Spring Festival. The 2511 and 2601 contracts are in the peak - demand season, and the supply - demand margin may improve, but they are mainly oscillating weakly due to the current large spot supply pressure [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1行情回顾与操作建议 (Market Review and Operation Suggestions) - **Market Conditions**: On the 11th, the main 2511 live pig futures contract opened slightly higher and then oscillated downward, closing with a negative line. The highest price was 13,370 yuan/ton, the lowest was 13,285 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 13,320 yuan/ton, up 0.04% from the previous day. The total open interest of the index increased by 3,574 lots to 197,717 lots. The national average price of foreign ternary pigs on the spot market was 13.33 yuan/kg, up 0.02 yuan/kg from the previous day [8]. - **Analysis**: On the supply side, in September, the planned sales of sample breeding enterprises were 25.7 million heads, an increase of 970,000 heads or 3.92% compared with the actual slaughter in August, with a daily average increase of 7.39%. The slaughter volume may continue to increase significantly, and the utilization rate of second - fattening pens remains high. On the demand side, the price difference between fat and standard pigs has slightly declined, and second - fattening is mainly in a wait - and - see state. The terminal consumption of residents may increase, the orders of slaughtering enterprises have slightly increased, and the slaughter rate and volume have slightly increased. On September 11th, the slaughter volume of sample slaughtering enterprises was 148,000 heads, an increase of 400 heads from the previous day, a week - on - week decrease of 2,700 heads, and a month - on - month increase of 10,000 heads [9]. 3.2行业要闻 (Industry News) - As of September 4th, the average profit per self - breeding and self - raising live pig was 98.7 yuan/head, a week - on - week increase of 23 yuan/head; the average profit per live pig purchased as a piglet was - 112.8 yuan/head, a week - on - week decrease of 5 yuan/head [10][12]. 3.3数据概览 (Data Overview) - The average market sales price of 15 - kg piglets in the week of September 4th was 425 yuan/head, a decrease of 19 yuan/head from the previous week [15]. - The price difference between 150 - kg fat pigs and standard pigs in the week of September 4th was 0.19 yuan/jin, a week - on - week increase of 0.01 yuan/jin. The cost of fattening a 110 - kg pig to 140 kg was 13.42 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.12 yuan/kg from the previous week; the cost of fattening a 125 - kg pig to 150 kg was 13.69 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.13 yuan/kg from the previous week [15]. - The slaughtering enterprise's开工 rate in the week of September 5th was 31.27%, a week - on - week increase of 2 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 5.54 percentage points, with the weekly rate fluctuating between 30.18% and 31.75% [15]. - As of the week of September 4th, the average slaughter weight of live pigs nationwide was 128.23 kg, an increase of 0.4 kg or 0.31% from the previous week [15].
大越期货生猪期货早报-20250902
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2025-09-02 05:34
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The supply and demand of the domestic pig market are expected to increase this week, and the pig price is expected to bottom out and rebound, maintaining a volatile pattern. The LH2511 contract of live pigs is expected to fluctuate in the range of 13,400 - 13,800 [10]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Prompt - The fundamentals show that in September, as the Mid - Autumn Festival and National Day approach, the supply of pigs and pork is expected to increase this week. The demand is boosted by the return of students to school and the approaching long - holiday, and the consumption of fresh pork is expected to increase. Overall, the market may see a situation of increasing supply and demand, with pig prices bottoming out and rebounding to maintain a volatile pattern. The market should pay attention to the monthly slaughter rhythm of group farms and the dynamic changes in the secondary fattening market [10]. - The basis: The national average spot price is 13,880 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 2511 contract is 255 yuan/ton, with the spot price at a premium to the futures price [10]. - Inventory: As of June 30, the live pig inventory was 424.47 million heads, a month - on - month increase of 0.4% and a year - on - year increase of 2.2%. As of the end of June, the inventory of breeding sows was 40.42 million heads, a month - on - month increase of 0.02% and a year - on - year increase of 4.2% [10]. - The market trend: The price is below the 20 - day moving average and the direction is downward [10]. - Main positions: The main positions are net long, and the long positions are increasing [10]. - Expectation: The supply and demand of live pigs have recently begun to pick up. It is expected that the pig price will bottom out and rebound this week, maintaining a range - bound pattern. The LH2511 contract of live pigs is expected to fluctuate in the range of 13,400 - 13,800 [10]. 2. Recent News - China's additional tariffs on pork imports from the United States and Canada have boosted market confidence. Affected by the off - season, as the Mid - Autumn Festival and National Day approach, the slaughter of large pigs has increased, resulting in an increase in both supply and demand of live pigs. The spot price has returned to a volatile pattern in the short term, and the futures price has also shown a range - bound pattern [12]. - The recent high - temperature weather has led to a short - term decline in pork demand. Affected by the increase in supply, the spot price of live pigs has been fluctuating weakly. However, due to the gradual recovery of demand, the downward space may be limited [12]. - The domestic pig farming profit has remained at a low level, and the short - term profit has deteriorated. The enthusiasm for slaughtering large pigs has been relatively high in the short term. The increase in both supply and demand supports the short - term price expectations of live pig futures and spot [12]. - The spot price of live pigs may fluctuate strongly before the National Day, and the futures price will generally return to a range - bound pattern in the short term. Further observation of the growth of supply and demand is needed in the future [12]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Factors - Bullish factors: The domestic pig consumption has entered the peak season before the long - holiday, and the room for further decline in the domestic live pig spot price may be limited [13]. - Bearish factors: The domestic macro - environment has a pessimistic expectation due to the Sino - US tariff war, and the domestic live pig inventory has increased year - on - year [13]. - Current main logic: The market focuses on the slaughter situation of live pigs and the demand for fresh meat [13]. 4. Fundamental Data - The report provides data on live pig futures, warehouse receipts, and spot prices from August 22 to September 1, including the prices of the main 2511 contract, far - month 2601 contract, and some regional spot prices [14]. - It also presents various charts related to the fundamentals of live pigs, such as the basis and spread trends of live pig futures, the average prices of different specifications of live pigs in the spot market, and indicators on the supply side (including pig prices, piglet indicators, inventory at different levels, pork imports, fattening costs, etc.), the slaughter side (including prices, profits, etc.), and the demand side (including consumption trends, etc.) [15][17][23]. 5. Position Data - Not provided in the content
瑞达期货生猪产业日报-20250901
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-09-01 08:50
Report Overview - Report Date: September 1, 2025 [1] - Report Type: Daily Report on the Pig Industry 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core Viewpoints - On September 1, 2025, the national daily pig slaughter volume of key breeding enterprises decreased by 15.06% compared to Friday, and the 2511 pig contract rose 0.33% on Monday [2] - Due to the implementation of the transfer policy on September 1st and the reduction at the beginning of the month, the short - term supply pressure has eased, but the medium - term supply pressure remains as September corresponds to the peak of the previous increasing cycle of fertile sows [2] - The price difference between fattening pigs and standard pigs continues to widen, providing conditions for later pressure on inventory and secondary fattening [2] - The pig - grain ratio has triggered a third - level warning, and the state has launched a combination of "new purchases for storage" and "rotational purchases for storage" to stabilize the market [2] - With sufficient pig supply, increased demand from schools after the start of the semester, and the continuous recovery of the slaughterhouse's operating rate [2] - In general, the short - term supply pressure still exists, suppressing pig prices, but the short - term slaughter rhythm may slow down, and with the recovery of the operating rate and the storage purchase policy, the short - term decline space is expected to be limited, and the market will operate weakly with fluctuations. It is recommended to sell short on rebounds [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract for pigs is 13,625 yuan/ton, with a ring - to - ring increase of 70 yuan/ton; the main contract position is 75,464 lots, with a ring - to - ring increase of 1,828 lots [2] - The number of warehouse receipts for pigs is 430 lots, with no change; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 14,798 lots, with a ring - to - ring increase of 1,278 lots [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The pig price in Zhumadian, Henan is 14,100 yuan/ton, with a ring - to - ring increase of 400 yuan/ton; in Siping, Jilin is 13,600 yuan/ton, with a ring - to - ring increase of 100 yuan/ton; in Yunfu, Guangdong is 14,500 yuan/ton, with a ring - to - ring decrease of 400 yuan/ton [2] - The main basis for pigs is 475 yuan/ton, with a ring - to - ring increase of 330 yuan/ton [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The monthly pig inventory is 42,4470,000 heads, with an increase of 7160,000 heads; the inventory of fertile sows is 4,0420,000 heads, with a decrease of 10,000 heads [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The year - on - year change of CPI for the current month is 0%, with a decrease of 0.1 percentage points [2] - The spot price of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang is 3,050 yuan/ton, with a ring - to - ring increase of 10 yuan/ton; the spot price of corn is 2,364.12 yuan/ton, with a ring - to - ring decrease of 0.59 yuan/ton [2] - The Dalian Commodity Exchange's pig feed cost index is 908.84, with a ring - to - ring increase of 0.95 [2] - The monthly output of feed is 28,273,000 tons, with a decrease of 1,104,000 tons [2] - The price of binary fertile sows is 1,625 yuan/head, with a ring - to - ring decrease of 2 yuan/head [2] - The breeding profit from purchasing piglets is - 148.41 yuan/head, with a ring - to - ring increase of 3.39 yuan/head; the breeding profit from self - breeding and self - raising pigs is 32.24 yuan/head, with a ring - to - ring decrease of 1.71 yuan/head [2] - The monthly import volume of pork is 90,000 tons, with no change; the average price of white - striped chickens in the main producing areas is 14.3 yuan/kg, with a ring - to - ring decrease of 0.1 yuan/kg [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly slaughter volume of designated pig slaughtering enterprises is 31,660,000 heads, with an increase of 1,600,000 heads [2] - The monthly total retail sales of social consumer goods in the catering industry is 450.41 billion yuan, with a decrease of 20.35 billion yuan [2]