1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the pig price continued to decline, with the main contract 2605 down 2.5% for the week. The supply is abundant as farmers are actively selling, and some even have passive overstocking due to weak demand. Market sentiment is low, and the enthusiasm for secondary fattening is weak. Although there is pre - Tomb - Sweeping Festival stocking demand, it can't change the weak terminal consumption trend. The supply - demand pattern remains loose, and the pig price is expected to remain weak. Technically, the main 2605 contract's weekly K - line deviates from the moving average and is about to change the contract, with limited adjustment space due to lack of positive support [8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Zhoudu Yaodian Xiaojie (Weekly Key Points Summary) - **Market Review**: The pig price continued to decline this week, and the main contract 2605 dropped 2.5% for the week [8]. - **Market Outlook**: Supply is abundant, demand is weak, and the supply - demand pattern remains loose. The pig price is expected to remain weak. Technically, there may be short - term adjustments, but the space is limited [8]. 3.2 Futures Market - **Price Movement**: The futures price continued to decline this week, with the main contract 2605 down 2.5% for the week [8][12]. - **Net Position and Warehouse Receipts**: As of March 27, the net short position of the top 20 holders in the pig futures increased by 1970 hands to 66461 hands compared with last week, and the number of futures warehouse receipts was 483, a decrease of 568 from the previous week [18]. - **Contract Spreads**: The spread between lh2605 and lh2607 contracts is - 1215, and the spread between lh2605 and lh2609 contracts is - 2555 [22]. 3.3 Spot Market - **Base Difference**: This week, the base difference of the May contract is - 465 yuan/ton, and that of the July contract is - 1680 yuan/ton [29]. - **Spot Price**: The national average pig price this week is 9.41 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.55 yuan/kg from last week. The average price of 15 - kg weaned piglets is 25.9 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.72 yuan/kg from last week [39]. - **Pork and Sow Price**: On March 26, the national average pork price is 15.65 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.09 yuan/kg from the previous week. The average price of binary sows is 32.45 yuan/kg, the same as the previous week [46]. - **Pig - Grain Ratio**: As of the week of March 18, 2026, the pig - grain ratio is 4.4, a decrease of 0.13 from the previous week [50]. 3.4 Industry Conditions 3.4.1 Upstream - **Sow Inventory**: In December 2025, the official sow inventory is 39610000 heads. According to Mysteel data, in February, the sow inventory of 123 large - scale farms decreased slightly by 0.01% month - on - month, and that of 85 small and medium - sized farms decreased by 0.11% month - on - month [52][56]. - **Pig Inventory**: At the end of the fourth quarter of 2025, the national pig inventory is 429670000 heads, a year - on - year increase of 0.5%. According to Mysteel data, in February, the pig inventory of 123 large - scale farms increased by 1.79% month - on - month, and that of 85 small and medium - sized farms increased by 1.36% month - on - month [60]. - **Slaughter Volume and Weight**: In February, the slaughter volume of 123 large - scale farms decreased by 12.95% month - on - month, and that of 85 small and medium - sized farms increased by 2.85% month - on - month. The average slaughter weight of pigs this week is 123.47 kg, an increase of 0.19 kg from last week [64]. 3.4.2 Industry Profit - **Pig and Poultry Breeding Profit**: As of March 27, the breeding profit of purchased piglets is - 189.87 yuan/head, a decrease of 48.39 yuan/head; the breeding profit of self - bred and self - raised pigs is - 344.24 yuan/head, a decrease of 46.56 yuan/head. The breeding profit of laying hens is - 0.26 yuan/head, an increase of 0.06 yuan/head week - on - week; the breeding profit of 817 meat - hybrid chickens is - 0.54 yuan/head, an increase of 0.08 yuan/head week - on - week [67]. 3.4.3 Import - In January and February 2026, China imported 70000 tons and 50000 tons of pork respectively, with a year - on - year decrease of 37.5% in February. The total import volume in January - February is 120000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 33.33% [74]. 3.4.4 Substitute Products - As of the week of March 27, the price of白条鸡 is 13.7 yuan/kg, the same as last week. As of the week of March 26, the average price difference between standard and fat pigs is - 0.64 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.01 yuan/kg from last week [78]. 3.4.5 Feed - As of March 26, the spot price of soybean meal is 3337.71 yuan/ton, a decrease of 67.72 yuan/ton from the previous week; the spot price of corn is 2452.55 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.06 yuan/ton from the previous week [85]. - As of March 20, the closing price of the DCE pig feed cost index is 950.47, and the average price of fattening pig compound feed is 3.36 yuan/kg [89]. - From January to February 2026, the feed output is 51098000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.3%. In February, the sales of piglet feed decreased by 3.84% month - on - month and 2.77% year - on - year [94]. 3.4.6 CPI - As of February 2026, China's CPI increased by 1.3% year - on - year [99]. 3.4.7 Downstream - **Slaughter and Inventory**: In the 13th week of 2026, the slaughter enterprise's operating rate is 32.83%, an increase of 2.38 percentage points from last week and 6.23 percentage points year - on - year. The fresh - sales rate of key slaughter enterprises is 78.55%, a decrease of 1.62% month - on - month and 10.89% year - on - year; the frozen - product storage rate is 21.52%, an increase of 2.80% from last week and 4.38% year - on - year [103]. - **Slaughter Volume and Catering Consumption**: As of February 2026, the slaughter volume of designated pig slaughtering enterprises is 31770000 heads, a decrease of 27.86% from last month. From January to February 2026, the national catering revenue is 1026.4 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase [108]. 3.5 Pig - Related Stocks - The report mentions the stock trends of Muyuan Co., Ltd. and Wens Co., Ltd., but no specific analysis content is provided [110].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The soybean market is expected to remain strong in the near term, and it is advisable to go long at low prices [1] - The corn fundamentals remain strong, and it is recommended to replenish stocks or buy on dips [2] - For eggs, although the short - term supply and demand are loose, there is an obvious downward expectation for the inventory in March, and a low - long strategy is suggested [3] - The pig market is in a stage of bottom - grinding oscillation, with short - term pressure on capacity clearance, and the far - month contracts may have some support [4][5] Summary by Related Catalog Soybean - Northeast soybean spot prices are stable overall, with tight supply of high - quality soybeans and firm prices [1] - There is little remaining soybean in the grassroots level, and farmers are reluctant to sell at a low price. After the Spring Festival, the restocking demand of traders supports high soybean prices [1] - Although the Brazilian soybean shipment recovery over the weekend alleviated the concerns about near - month arrivals, the tight supply situation has not been fully resolved [1] - Zhuochuang Information believes that soybean prices still have room to rise in March, and the price inflection point may occur in early April [1] Corn - In Northeast China, the post - festival grain sales progress is slower than in previous years, and the remaining grain inventory is at a low level [2] - Deep - processing and feed enterprises have low inventory levels, and large purchasing enterprises such as CGS and COFCO are increasing their purchasing efforts, driving up regional prices [2] - As the temperature rises, the enthusiasm for grassroots grain sales increases, and the grain rights are gradually transferred to the trading link [2] - Affected by the rising transportation costs and continuous losses of downstream enterprises, the price increase in Northeast China has narrowed [2] - In Shandong, the daily arrival of corn is persistently low, and the enterprises' restocking demand is increasing. The market shows the characteristics of "price increase but volume decrease" [2] - The corn purchase price in Shandong has approached 1.25 yuan per catty, and some enterprises' quotes have reached 1.26 yuan per catty [2] Egg - As of the end of February 2026, the national laying hen inventory was 1.35 billion, a year - on - year increase of 3.4%, which restricts the rapid and significant rise of egg prices [3] - Due to the low egg - laying hen replenishment volume from October to November 2025, the number of newly - laid hens from March to April 2026 will decrease significantly [3] - With the improvement of breeding profitability, the slaughter of laying hens will accelerate, and the national laying hen inventory will decline significantly from April to May [3] - The sharp rise in feed raw materials squeezes the profit of laying hens and accelerates industry capacity clearance [3] Pig - As of the end of February 2026, the inventory of commercial pigs in China was 37.3205 million, a month - on - month increase of 1.79% and a cumulative year - on - year increase of 4.91% [4] - The inventory of breeding sows at the end of February was 5.0204 million, a month - on - month decrease of 0.01% and a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 0.45% [4] - The commercial pig出栏 volume at the end of February was 9.9223 million, a month - on - month decrease of 12.95% and a cumulative year - on - year increase of 11.35% [4] - The average weight of commercial pig出栏 this week is 123.17 kg, which is stable week - on - week, increasing the supply pressure [4] - The pig出栏 accelerates in March, but the demand remains weak, and the feed cost rises, worsening the breeding profit and forcing short - term capacity clearance [5] - Some third - party institutions predict a slight reduction in the inventory of breeding sows in February, and the far - month contracts may have some support, but the supply - demand pattern will not change until the official data is significantly adjusted [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - This week, the live hog price fluctuated at a low level, with the main contract 2605 down 0.09% for the week. The selling sentiment of the breeding end has increased, accelerating the slaughter rhythm. Combining the sow production capacity and the number of newborn piglets, the supply in the near - term is sufficient. Although there are intermittent entries in the second - fattening, the overall sentiment is weak and the attitude is cautious, with limited effect on alleviating the supply. On the demand side, the demand has entered the off - season, the terminal consumption is rigid, and the slaughter enterprises may maintain the current level with small fluctuations or even a slight reduction, with limited support for the price. Overall, the situation of oversupply in the market continues, putting pressure on the live hog price. However, because the price is at a low level and there is an expectation of capacity reduction, the decline pace has slowed down, and the live hog price will mainly fluctuate weakly. Attention should be paid to the impact of the entry dynamics of second - fattening and capital flow on the price [8]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1. Week - on - Week Summary - **Market performance**: The live hog price fluctuated at a low level this week, and the main contract 2605 was down 0.09% for the week [8][12]. - **Market outlook**: The supply in the near - term is sufficient. The second - fattening has limited effect on alleviating the supply. The demand is in the off - season, and the support for the price is limited. The oversupply situation continues, but the decline pace of the price has slowed down, and it will mainly fluctuate weakly. Attention should be paid to the entry dynamics of second - fattening and capital flow [8]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Markets 3.2.1. Futures Market - **Price trend**: The futures price bottomed out and fluctuated this week, and the main contract 2605 was down 0.09% for the week [12]. - **Net position and warehouse receipts**: As of March 13, the net short position of the top 20 long - short positions in live hog futures increased by 7949 lots to 59292 lots compared with last week, and the number of live hog futures warehouse receipts was 1133, a decrease of 17 lots compared with the previous week [18]. - **Contract spread**: The spread between lh2605 and lh2607 contracts was - 1195, and the spread between lh2605 and lh2609 contracts was - 2015 [24]. 3.2.2. Spot Market - **Base difference**: The base difference of the March contract this week was - 80 yuan/ton, and the base difference of the May contract was - 1050 yuan/ton [28]. - **Live hog and piglet prices**: The average national live hog market price this week was 10.18 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.36 yuan/kg compared with last week. The average price of 15 - kg weaned piglets was 27.62 yuan/kg, a decrease of 1.62 yuan/kg compared with last week [38]. - **Pork and sow prices**: On March 12, the national pork market price was 16.5 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.38 yuan/kg compared with the previous week. The average market price of binary sows was 32.45 yuan/kg, a slight decrease of 0.01 yuan/kg compared with the previous week [45]. - **Pig - grain ratio**: As of the week of February 11, 2026, the pig - grain ratio was 5.5, a decrease of 0.18 compared with the previous week, still below 6:1 [49]. 3.3. Industry Situation 3.3.1. Upstream - **Sow inventory**: In December 2025, the inventory of reproductive sows was 39.61 million, equivalent to 101.56% of the normal inventory, in the green area. According to Mysteel data, in February, the inventory of reproductive sows in 123 large - scale farms decreased slightly by 0.01% month - on - month, and the inventory in 85 small and medium - sized farms decreased by 0.11% month - on - month [55]. - **Live hog inventory**: At the end of the fourth quarter of 2025, the live hog inventory was 429.67 million, a month - on - month decrease of 1.6% and a year - on - year increase of 0.5%. In February, the live hog inventory in 123 large - scale farms increased by 1.79% month - on - month and 5.57% year - on - year, and the inventory in 85 small and medium - sized farms increased by 1.36% month - on - month and 11.89% year - on - year [59]. - **Slaughter volume and average weight**: In February, the slaughter volume of 123 large - scale farms decreased by 12.95% month - on - month and increased by 12.12% year - on - year, and the slaughter volume of 85 small and medium - sized farms increased by 2.85% month - on - month and 23.07% year - on - year. The average slaughter weight of national ternary live hogs this week was 123.17 kg, the same as last week [63]. 3.3.2. Industry Profit - **Livestock and poultry breeding profit**: As of March 13, the breeding profit of purchased piglets was - 118.18 yuan/head, a decrease of 59.29 yuan/head; the breeding profit of self - bred and self - raised live hogs was - 283.15 yuan/head, a decrease of 45.17 yuan/head. The breeding profit of laying hens was - 0.33 yuan/head, a week - on - week increase of 0.02 yuan/head, and the breeding profit of 817 meat - hybrid chickens was - 0.32 yuan/head, a week - on - week increase of 0.34 yuan/head [68]. 3.3.3. Domestic Import - In December 2025, the pork import volume was 60,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 33.33%; from January to December, the pork import volume was 980,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8.41% [74]. 3.3.4. Substitute Products - As of the week of March 13, the price of white - striped chickens was 13.7 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.1 yuan/kg compared with last week. As of the week of March 12, the average price difference between standard and fat hogs was - 0.74 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.03 yuan/kg compared with last week [78]. 3.3.5. Feed - **Feed price**: As of March 13, the spot price of soybean meal was 3438.86 yuan/ton, an increase of 264.29 yuan/ton compared with the previous week. As of March 6, the spot price of corn was 2446.86 yuan/ton, an increase of 29.02 yuan/ton compared with the previous week. The closing price of the Dalian Commodity Exchange live hog feed cost index was 971.98, and the average market price of live hog feed was 2.66 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.01 yuan/kg compared with last week [85][89]. - **Feed production**: In December 2025, the monthly feed production was 30.086 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 307,000 tons. In February 2026, the sales of piglet feed decreased by 3.84% month - on - month and 2.77% year - on - year [94]. 3.3.6. CPI - As of February 2026, China's CPI increased by 1.3% year - on - year [99]. 3.3.7. Downstream - **Slaughter enterprise situation**: In the 11th week of 2026, the slaughter enterprise's operating rate was 28.53%, an increase of 1.26 percentage points compared with last week and 2.67 percentage points compared with the same period last year. The fresh - sales rate of key domestic slaughter enterprises was 82.44%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.16% and a year - on - year decrease of 7.54%; the frozen - product storage rate was 17.84%, an increase of 0.32% compared with last week and 0.92% compared with the same period last year [103]. - **Slaughter volume and catering consumption**: As of January 2026, the slaughter volume of designated live hog slaughtering enterprises was 44.04 million, a month - on - month increase of 9.96% and a 15.41% increase compared with the previous month. In December 2025, the national catering revenue was 573.8 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2.19% [109]. 3.3.8. Live Hog Stocks - The report presents the trend charts of Muyuan Co., Ltd. and Wens Co., Ltd., but no specific analysis is provided [111][113]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views - **Corn**: In the short term, the supply in the front - end trading link is tight, and the concentrated release of replenishment demand in the consumer end drives the price up. The current price fluctuation is dominated by short - term supply - demand mismatch. In the long term, pay attention to import and domestic auction policies due to the supply gap [3]. - **Starch**: This week, the increase in raw material costs drives up the starch price. In the short term, both supply and demand are recovering. In the long term, focus on the downstream consumption rhythm and whether the enterprise inventory will continue to decline after the seasonal peak [3]. - **Sugar**: Internationally, the fundamentals are slightly stronger with India's production cut and ISO's reduction of the global surplus forecast. Crude oil price increase may boost the raw sugar price. Domestically, the market is discussing import policies, with low additional - quota import costs and high spot pressure [6]. - **Cotton**: The low initial inventory offsets most of the output increase. With expanding domestic textile production, good downstream profits, and consumption - promoting policies, cotton demand is expected to improve. The reduction of Xinjiang's planting area in the new season makes cotton suitable for long - term investment [7]. - **Eggs**: The slowdown of chicken culling may be an active decision by farmers, which postpones the supply pressure. Rising feed costs compress the profit margin. Considering the basis structure of 05 and 06 contracts, a near - far month reverse spread strategy is recommended [9]. - **Apples**: The shipping situation in apple - producing areas varies, with the west stronger than the east. In the west, the price of high - quality goods rises, while in the east, the overall shipment is average. The sales in the sales area are stable after the festival, but the arrival volume is low and the shipping slows down [11]. - **Pigs**: The spot market is weakly adjusted. Group supply is abundant, consumption is weak, and capacity reduction is limited. Pay attention to factors such as the change of farmers' selling weight, the expectation of second - fattening, and frozen product storage [11]. 3. Summary by Commodity Corn/Starch - **Price Data**: From March 4 to March 10, the price of corn in Changchun remained at 2230, while in other regions, there were slight changes. The basis of corn increased by 14, and the import profit increased by 28. For starch, the price in Heilongjiang increased by 50, and the basis increased by 50, and the processing profit increased by 17 [2]. - **Analysis**: Short - term price increase is due to supply - demand mismatch, and long - term focus is on policies. For starch, short - term supply and demand are both recovering, and long - term focus is on downstream consumption [3]. Sugar - **Price Data**: From March 4 to March 10, the spot prices in Liuzhou, Nanning, and Kunming decreased by 90, 80, and 50 respectively. The basis decreased by 63, and the import profit decreased [5]. - **Analysis**: International fundamentals are stronger, and domestic market is affected by import policy discussions, with high spot pressure [6]. Cotton/Cotton Yarn - **Price Data**: From March 4 to March 10, the price of 3128 cotton increased by 5. The import profit and other data also had certain changes [7]. - **Analysis**: Low initial inventory and good demand prospects make cotton suitable for long - term investment [7]. Eggs - **Price Data**: From March 4 to March 10, the egg prices in some regions increased slightly, the basis increased by 105, and the prices of substitutes had some changes [9]. - **Analysis**: Slow chicken culling postpones supply pressure, and a near - far month reverse spread strategy is recommended [9]. Apples - **Price Data**: The spot prices of Shandong 80 first - and second - grade and Shaanxi 70 general goods remained unchanged. The national inventory increased by 22, and the inventories in Shandong and Shaanxi decreased [10][11]. - **Analysis**: Shipping situation varies between the east and the west, and the sales in the sales area are stable but slow [11]. Pigs - **Price Data**: From March 4 to March 10, the prices in some regions decreased slightly, and the basis increased by 20 [11]. - **Analysis**: Spot market is weakly adjusted, and pay attention to factors affecting the price rhythm [11].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints - In the week of March 2 - 8, 2026, the national average price of foreign three - yuan pigs was 10.43 yuan/kg, showing a slight weekly decline; prices in many areas broke through the psychological threshold of 5 yuan/jin, with a pig - grain ratio of 4.45:1, indicating deep industry losses. The futures market fluctuated weakly within a narrow range. Starting at 11390 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and ending at 11160 yuan/ton at the weekend, it dropped 230 yuan/ton for the week, with a trading range of 11080 - 11400 yuan/ton. The position steadily expanded, trading volume was moderate, and the long - short game converged. LH05 is expected to fluctuate weakly, bottom out at a low level, with little chance of a significant rebound, and may test the support around 11000 yuan/ton. Currently, the live hog contracts show a pattern of near - term weakness and long - term strength, accelerating the bottom - building process [1] - Factors to watch include changes in the inventory of breeding sows, the progress of consumption recovery, and policy regulation dynamics [2] Summary by Directory Market Review and Outlook - The average price of foreign three - yuan pigs last week was 10.43 yuan/kg, with a slight weekly decline. Many areas broke through the 5 - yuan/jin psychological threshold, and the pig - grain ratio was 4.45:1, indicating deep industry losses. The futures market fluctuated weakly within a narrow range, dropping 230 yuan/ton for the week. LH05 is expected to fluctuate weakly and bottom out at a low level, with a possible test of the 11000 - yuan/ton support. The live hog contracts show a near - term weakness and long - term strength pattern, accelerating the bottom - building process [1] Weekly Changes in Fundamental Data | Indicator | Unit | Latest Week | Previous Period | Weekly Change | Frequency | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Piglets | yuan/head | 339.29 | 356.19 | - 16.9 | Weekly | | Weekly average slaughter weight | kg | 123.17 | 123.06 | 0.11 | Weekly | | Profit from purchasing piglets for breeding | yuan/head | - 87.42 | - 34 | - 53.42 | Weekly | | Profit from self - breeding and self - raising | yuan/head | - 176.34 | - 97.76 | - 78.58 | Weekly | | Slaughter start - up rate | % | 27.88 | 28.12 | - 0.24 | Weekly | [3] Periodic and Spot Market Review - No specific content summary provided, only a reference to the main contract basis chart [5] Supply Situation Analysis - No specific content summary provided, only references to charts such as the monthly trend of the inventory of breeding sows in sample enterprises and the weekly trend of the average slaughter weight of commercial pigs [9][10] Demand Situation Analysis - No specific content summary provided, only references to charts such as the start - up rate of key slaughtering enterprises and the frozen product storage rate of key slaughtering enterprises [16][17] Cost - Profit Analysis - No specific content summary provided, only references to charts of the profit from purchasing piglets and the profit from self - breeding and self - raising [20]

Market Review and Outlook - From February 24th to 28th, 2026, the national live hog spot price continued the downward trend after the Spring Festival, hitting the bottom during the week and then stabilizing slightly, with the overall decline narrowing. As of February 28th, the average price of national external ternary live hogs dropped to around 10.8 yuan/kg (5.4 yuan/jin), a decrease of 0.52 yuan/kg from the previous week (February 17th - 23rd), with a weekly decline of about 4.6%. On March 2nd, the national external ternary average price further dropped to 10.79 yuan/kg, showing signs of stopping the decline after hitting a recent low [1]. - The LH05 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 11,000 - 11,600 yuan/ton. Currently, the live hog contracts show a pattern of near - term weakness and long - term strength, and are accelerating the bottom - building process [2]. Key Factors to Monitor - Changes in the inventory of breeding sows, the progress of consumption recovery, and policy regulation dynamics [3]. Weekly Changes in Fundamental Data | Indicator | Unit | Latest Week | Previous Period | Weekly Change | Frequency | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Piglets | Yuan/head | 356.19 | 357.14 | - 0.95 | Weekly | | Weekly average slaughter weight | Kilograms | 123.06 | 122.9 | 0.36 | Weekly | | Profit from purchasing piglets for breeding | Yuan/head | - 34 | 7.97 | - 68.8 | Weekly | | Profit from self - breeding and self - raising | Yuan/head | - 97.76 | - 45.69 | - 68.51 | Weekly | | Slaughter start - up rate | % | 26.04 | 26.22 | - 0.85 | Weekly | [4] Report Structure 1. Spot and Futures Market Review - Figure 1 shows the basis of the main contract in yuan/ton [6]. 2. Supply Situation Analysis - Figure 2 shows the monthly trend chart of the inventory of breeding sows in sample enterprises (comprehensive farms) in ten thousand heads [10]. - Figure 3 shows the weekly trend chart of the average slaughter weight of national sample commercial hogs in kilograms [11]. - Figure 4 shows the inventory structure of commercial hogs (by weight) in percentage [14]. 3. Demand Situation Analysis - Figure 5 shows the start - up rate of key slaughtering enterprises (81 sample enterprises) in percentage [15]. - Figure 6 shows the frozen product storage rate of key slaughtering enterprises in percentage [18]. 4. Cost - Profit Analysis - Figure 7 shows the profit from purchasing piglets for breeding (weekly) in yuan/head. Figure 8 shows the profit from self - breeding and self - raising (weekly) in yuan/head [21].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the industry [8]. Core Insights - The report highlights the contrasting price trends in livestock, with pig prices declining post-Chinese New Year while chicken prices are expected to rise due to limited supply and potential demand increases [4]. - It expresses optimism regarding the planting sector, anticipating an improvement in planting sentiment driven by rising grain prices in 2025 [5]. - The pet industry is influenced by exchange rate fluctuations affecting short-term export performance, but domestic market growth is expected to continue [6]. Summary by Sections Livestock - Post-Chinese New Year, pig prices have decreased, with daily average prices hovering around the low of 9,920 yuan/ton for the futures contract, indicating a surplus in supply and weak demand [4]. - Yellow chicken prices have increased post-holiday, contrasting with the downward trend observed after the previous two Chinese New Years, suggesting proactive inventory management in the industry [4]. Planting - The report notes that low grain prices in 2025 have negatively impacted some companies' performance, but a recovery in grain prices is expected to boost the planting sector [5]. - Companies with high-density planting varieties are projected to perform well, as evidenced by 康农种业's revenue and net profit growth of 7% and 16% respectively in 2025 [5]. Pet Industry - The report indicates that while the pet company 路斯股份 saw an 11% increase in revenue, net profit declined by 21% due to the appreciation of the RMB affecting gross margins [6]. - The domestic pet market is growing rapidly, and companies with overseas production capacity and increasing orders are expected to perform well [6]. Animal Health - The animal health sector is facing intense competition, but companies that continue to innovate and differentiate their products are likely to perform well despite potential profit pressures in the first half of 2026 [7]. - 科前生物 reported a 1% increase in revenue and a 9% increase in net profit, maintaining a strong market position in the vaccine sector [7]. Investment Recommendations - Recommended stocks in the pig sector include 牧原股份 and 温氏股份, while 科前生物 and 海大集团 are suggested for the post-cycle investment [7]. - In the agricultural product chain, stocks like 晨光生物 and 诺普信 are highlighted, along with pet industry stocks such as 乖宝宠物 and 中宠股份 [7].

Report Information - Report Name: Pig Daily Report [1] - Date: January 29, 2026 [2] Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The spot market is expected to fluctuate weakly due to a short - term decrease in demand and relatively ample supply. The futures market for the 03/05 contracts is also expected to fluctuate weakly, with pig supply likely to increase slightly, high pressure from second - round fattening, weak epidemic impact, and the post - holiday entry into the consumption off - season [7] Summary by Section 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestion - **Futures Market**: On the 28th, the main 2603 contract of live pigs opened slightly higher, then rose and fell back, closing down. The highest was 11340 yuan/ton, the lowest was 11230 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 11270 yuan/ton, down 0.88% from the previous day. The total index position decreased by 1742 lots to 340530 lots [6] - **Spot Market**: On the 28th, the national average price of三元hogs was 12.67 yuan/kg, down 0.14 yuan/kg from the previous day [6] - **Supply - side Situation**: Before the middle of the month, the enthusiasm for second - round fattening increased. Currently, the utilization rate of second - round fattening pens is relatively high year - on - year, and there are still pigs to be slaughtered before the Spring Festival. In January, the planned slaughter volume of sample breeding enterprises decreased by 3.1% month - on - month. The enthusiasm for slaughter on the breeding side increased, and the slaughter volume will be significantly released in the next two weeks [7] - **Demand - side Situation**: The spot price rebounded to a high level, and with the Spring Festival approaching, second - round fattening is on the sidelines. Terminal consumer demand is average. With schools about to have holidays, group - meal consumption may decrease, and the sales of pork carcasses are poor. Short - term orders for slaughtering enterprises have decreased, and the operating rate and slaughter volume have slightly decreased. The last wave of demand peak will be during the Spring Festival stocking period in early February. On January 28, the slaughter volume of sample slaughtering enterprises was 188400 heads, an increase of 300 heads from the previous day, an increase of 10000 heads week - on - week, and a decrease of 14000 heads month - on - month [7] 2. Industry News - As of January 23, the expected cost of self - breeding and self - fattening was 12.15 yuan/kg, unchanged week - on - week. The cost of fattening purchased piglets was affected by both feed price and piglet price. The expected cost of fattening purchased piglets to 125kg and then selling was 12.63 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.4 yuan/kg week - on - week [8][10] 3. Data Overview - **Profit**: As of January 23, the average profit per head of self - breeding and self - fattening was 73 yuan/head, an increase of 47.7 yuan/head week - on - week; the average profit per head of fattening purchased piglets was - 38.7 yuan/head, a decrease of 61.8 yuan/head week - on - week [13] - **Slaughter Weight**: As of the week of January 22, the average slaughter weight of live pigs was 128.89kg, an increase of 0.04kg from the previous week (a week - on - week increase of 0.03%), a decrease of 0.81kg from the previous month (a month - on - month decrease of 0.62%), and an increase of 7.38kg from the same period last year (a year - on - year increase of 6.07%) [13] - **Price Difference**: In the week of January 22, the price difference between 175 - kg fat pigs and standard pigs was 0.64 yuan/jin, an increase of 0.16 yuan/jin week - on - week [13] - **Fattening Cost**: The cost of purchasing 110kg pigs and fattening them to 140kg was 12.41 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.07 yuan/kg from the previous week; the cost of purchasing 125kg pigs and fattening them to 150kg was 12.92 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.08 yuan/kg from the previous week [13] - **Annual Output**: In 2025, the total pig slaughter was 719.73 million heads, an increase of 17.16 million heads (a year - on - year increase of 2.4%). The pig slaughter in the four quarters was 194.76 million heads, 171.43 million heads, 163.73 million heads, and 189.81 million heads respectively, with year - on - year growth rates of 0.1%, 1.2%, 4.7%, and 4.1% respectively. The pork output was 59.38 million tons, an increase of 2.32 million tons (a year - on - year increase of 4.1%), reaching a record high. The pork output in the four quarters was 16.02 million tons, 14.18 million tons, 13.48 million tons, and 15.7 million tons respectively, with year - on - year growth rates of 1.2%, 1.4%, 7.1%, and 5.2% respectively [13]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information regarding the report industry investment rating is provided in the given content. 2. Report Core Views - The supply pressure of live pigs remains high, and the rebound of futures prices is under pressure. In the short - term, the spot is firm and macro funds boost the market, but the hedging pressure above 12,000 for off - season contracts increases. In the long - term, the supply in the first quarter continues to grow, and the price after the Spring Festival is under pressure. The price in the second half of the year is expected to be strong but still above the equilibrium level [5][54]. - The supply pressure of eggs still exists, and the rebound of the futures price is restricted. Although the demand before the Spring Festival drives up the egg price, the sufficient supply limits the increase. In the long - term, the supply pressure still exists, and the market needs to go through a bottom - grinding process [6][78]. - The short - term supply and demand of corn are balanced, and the futures price fluctuates at a high level. In the long - term, the supply - demand pattern in the 25/26 season is looser year - on - year, which restricts the upside space [7][104]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Feed and Livestock Views Summary 3.1.1 Live Pigs - **Period - Spot End**: As of January 16, the national spot price was 12.69 yuan/kg, up 0.18 yuan/kg from last week; the futures price of live pigs 2503 was up 210 yuan/ton. The high price suppresses consumption, but the slow enterprise出栏 rhythm and other factors drive up the price [5][54]. - **Supply End**: The inventory of reproductive sows is slowly decreasing, but the supply remains high before the first half of the year. The supply pressure in the first quarter is large according to piglet data. The planned出栏 volume of large - scale enterprises in January decreases, the出栏 weight increases, and the secondary fattening is sporadic [5][54]. - **Demand End**: The slaughter rate and volume decline, the fresh - sales rate increases, and the frozen - product inventory decreases. The Spring Festival stocking period has not started, and the demand growth is weak [5][54]. - **Cost End**: The prices of piglets and binary reproductive sows rise, the self - breeding and self - raising profit turns positive, and the cost of self - breeding and self - raising fattening pigs increases slightly [5][54]. - **Weekly Summary**: There is a risk of pig price decline in the short - term, and the price is not optimistic during the Spring Festival and after. The price in the second half of the year is expected to be strong but still above the equilibrium level [5][54]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: In the short - term, wait for the opportunity to short on rebounds. In the long - term, the industry can hedge at high prices when the profit is positive [5][54]. 3.1.2 Eggs - **Period - Spot End**: As of January 16, the average price in the main production areas was 3.6 yuan/jin, up 0.37 yuan/jin from last Friday; the futures price of eggs 2603 was up 32 yuan/500 kg. The approaching Spring Festival drives up the egg price [6][78]. - **Supply End**: The number of newly - opened laying hens in January is at an average level, and the inventory is slowly decreasing but still large. In the long - term, the supply pressure will gradually ease, but it still takes time [6][78]. - **Demand End**: The approaching Spring Festival drives up the demand, and the substitution demand is good. The inventory in the production link is not large, while that in the circulation link is relatively high [6][78]. - **Weekly Summary**: The egg price rises seasonally in the short - term, but the sufficient supply limits the increase. In the long - term, the supply pressure still exists [6][78]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: Wait for the spot price increase to be less than expected and hedge the 03 contract after the Spring Festival at high prices [6][78]. 3.1.3 Corn - **Period - Spot End**: As of January 16, the closing price of corn at Jinzhou Port in Liaoning was 2350 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton from last Friday; the futures price of corn 2603 was up 18 yuan/ton. The supply and demand are balanced, and the price is at a high level [7][104]. - **Supply End**: The national grain - selling progress is 53%, and the supply is relatively average. The import of corn increases, and the inventory in ports decreases [7][104]. - **Demand End**: The feed demand is rigid, but the increase in corn price may lead to a shift to wheat procurement. The deep - processing demand is limited by factors such as high inventory and low profit [7][104]. - **Weekly Summary**: The short - term supply and demand are balanced, and the price is at a high level. In the long - term, the supply - demand pattern is looser year - on - year [7][104]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: In the short - term, be cautious about chasing high prices, and hedging at high prices when the price rebounds. In the long - term, the upside space is restricted [7][104]. 3.2 Variety Industry Data Analysis 3.2.1 Live Pigs - **Weekly Market Review**: The futures price of live pigs 2503 rose, the basis decreased slightly, and the spot price increased [13]. - **Fundamental Data Review**: Data on supply, demand, cost, profit, etc. show that the supply pressure is large, and the self - breeding and self - raising profit turns positive [10]. - **Key Data Tracking**: The inventory of reproductive sows is slowly decreasing, the production performance is improving, and the supply in the first quarter is expected to be high [17]. 3.2.2 Eggs - **Weekly Market Review**: The spot and futures prices of eggs increased, and the basis strengthened [59]. - **Fundamental Data Review**: Data on price, supply, demand, inventory, and profit show that the supply pressure exists, and the demand before the Spring Festival drives the price up [60]. - **Key Data Tracking**: The inventory of laying hens is slowly decreasing, and the supply pressure will gradually ease in the long - term [78]. 3.2.3 Corn - **Weekly Market Review**: The spot and futures prices of corn increased, and the basis strengthened [84]. - **Fundamental Data Review**: Data on price, supply, demand, inventory, and profit show that the short - term supply and demand are balanced, and the long - term supply - demand pattern is looser [85]. - **Key Data Tracking**: The grain - selling progress is relatively fast, the import increases, and the demand is rigid but the deep - processing demand is limited [104].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Oils and Fats**: The global soybean harvest is expected to be abundant, and China's domestic soybean crushing volume is expected to decline. The inventory of soybean oil in coastal oil mills is in a seasonal de - stocking channel, but the absolute level is still higher than the historical average. The price of soybean oil futures Y2605 is expected to range from 7,900 to 8,200 yuan/ton, showing a volatile and slightly stronger pattern. Palm oil has strong support below 8,500 yuan due to production decline and export improvement in Malaysia. The Indonesian B50 policy suspension is a short - term negative, and the policy of confiscating illegal plantations may tighten long - term supply. For rapeseed oil, the market expects the Sino - Canadian trade relationship to ease, and attention should be paid to whether there are official signals of tariff adjustment [8][9]. - **Corn**: The supply side is affected by factors such as farmers' selling intentions and port inventory. The demand side includes feed and deep - processing demand. Overall, the supply - demand relationship may remain tight, and the spot price is expected to be strong. The futures price of the 2603 contract may also follow the spot price and be strong [77][78]. - **Pigs**: The supply side shows that the pig出栏 is expected to increase slightly in the short - to - medium term, and the second - fattening pen utilization rate is relatively high. The demand side shows that the second - fattening is on the sidelines, and the terminal consumption and slaughter volume have decreased. The spot price is expected to fluctuate, and the futures price is affected by factors such as supply increase and second - fattening pressure [129]. - **Soybean Meal**: The USDA January report is bearish for US soybeans, with increased ending stocks. The Brazilian soybean harvest is expected to be abundant, putting pressure on the market. The domestic 03 contract of soybean meal may be affected by the import soybean auction, while the 05 contract is under pressure due to the approaching Brazilian soybean arrival [134][135]. - **Eggs**: The spot price of eggs has been rising due to factors such as decreased laying hen inventory and seasonal demand. However, the de - capacity process is tortuous, and it is recommended to reduce long positions and operate in a rolling manner after the upward momentum weakens [173]. - **Cotton**: The USDA monthly report is relatively positive for the global cotton market. The domestic cotton market is in a wide - range volatile adjustment stage in the short term, and the medium - to - long - term trend is still positive. Attention should be paid to factors such as the actual decline in the cotton planting area in Xinjiang in the 2026/27 season [200][201]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Oils and Fats 3.1.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Review**: The prices of various oil contracts showed different degrees of increase. The USDA's soybean production data was higher than expected, and China's continuous purchase of US soybeans provided some support to the market, but the upcoming Brazilian harvest may weaken China's demand for US soybeans [8]. - **Operation Suggestions**: The price of soybean oil futures Y2605 is expected to range from 7,900 to 8,200 yuan/ton, with a volatile and slightly stronger pattern. Palm oil has support below 8,500 yuan, and attention should be paid to the policy changes in Indonesia and the Sino - Canadian trade relationship for rapeseed oil [8][9]. 3.1.2 Core Points - **Domestic Spot Changes**: As of January 16, 2025, the prices of soybean oil, rapeseed oil, and palm oil in different regions showed varying degrees of increase, and the basis also changed accordingly [10]. - **Domestic Three - Major Oil Inventories**: As of the end of the second week of 2026, the total inventory of the three major edible oils in China was 2.1417 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 104,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.67%, and a year - on - year increase of 7.76% [17]. - **Domestic Oilseed Supply**: The soybean opening rate of domestic oil mills increased, and the soybean crushing volume also increased. The inventory of imported soybeans in ports was relatively high, and the estimated arrival volume in January was about 7.597 million tons. The opening rate of imported rapeseed processing enterprises was almost stagnant, and the inventory of imported rapeseed in ports was about 120,000 tons [22][27][28]. - **Palm Oil Dynamics**: In January, the palm oil production in Malaysia decreased, and the export volume increased. Indonesia's B50 policy was postponed, and Malaysia's palm oil production and inventory were expected to change in 2026 [30][31]. - **CFTC Positions**: Speculative funds continued to reduce net long positions in soybeans for the fifth week, net - bought Chicago soybean oil for the first time in five weeks, and continued to net - sell Chicago soybean meal for the sixth week [41]. Corn 3.2.1 Market Review - **Spot Market**: The corn prices in the north port, northeast production area, and sales area increased, while the prices in the north China region continued to fluctuate. The increase in prices did not reduce the demand, and the downstream was in the pre - Spring Festival stocking period [44]. - **Futures Market**: As of January 15, the main 2603 contract of Dalian corn closed at 2,295 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 29 yuan/ton, or 1.26% [44]. 3.2.2 Fundamental Analysis - **Corn Supply**: The grain - selling progress was average, with the northeast being faster than the same period last year and the north China and northwest being slower. The port inventory decreased [46][47][49]. - **Domestic Substitutes**: The supply of wheat was stable, but the feed substitution demand was weak due to the lack of price advantage [50]. - **Imported Substitute Grains**: In November, the import of some grains increased, and the import of corn and other grains showed different trends. The import profit of Brazilian corn was relatively high, and the import volume may continue to increase in the future [52][62]. - **Feed Demand**: In November 2025, the national industrial feed output decreased month - on - month but increased year - on - year. The feed enterprises' inventory increased, and the pig inventory was expected to drive the feed demand to be good [63][69]. - **Deep - Processing Demand**: The corn starch industry's opening rate decreased, and the production profit was in a loss state. The inventory of deep - processing enterprises increased slightly, and there was still a certain demand for inventory replenishment before the Spring Festival [71][72]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: In the 2025/26 season, China's corn planting area, yield, and total output increased, and the consumption also increased. The market supply and demand were relatively tight, and the price had strong support [75][76]. 3.2.3 Later Outlook and Strategy - **Viewpoint**: The supply side may see a slight acceleration in the grain - selling rhythm before the Spring Festival, and the port inventory is still low. The substitute grains' import advantage is increasing. The demand side has a demand for inventory replenishment, but the profit of the breeding and deep - processing industries is not good. The overall supply - demand relationship is tight, and the spot and futures prices are expected to be strong [77][78]. - **Strategy**: Spot enterprises should replenish inventory appropriately, and futures investors should hold long positions [79]. Pigs 3.3.1 Market Review - **Spot Market**: The pig price continued to rise this week, with the supply side showing pressure - barring and weight - gaining, and the demand side having limited increase in slaughter volume due to high purchase costs [81]. - **Futures Market**: As of Thursday, the main contract LH2603 of pig futures fluctuated and rose, with a closing price of 11,950 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 230 yuan/ton, or 2% [82]. 3.3.2 Fundamental Overview - **Long - Term Supply**: The price of binary sows increased slightly, and the replenishment enthusiasm was average. The theoretical pig出栏 is expected to change according to the sow inventory data [89][90][93]. - **Medium - Term Supply**: The price of piglets increased, and the inventory decreased month - on - month but increased year - on - year. The theoretical pig出栏 is expected to change in the medium term [102][103]. - **Short - Term Supply**: The large - pig inventory decreased, and the proportion of large - pig inventory increased due to pressure - barring and second - fattening. The utilization rate of fattening pens increased [105][106]. - **Current Supply**: The actual pig出栏 in December was close to the plan, and the planned出栏 in January decreased. The average slaughter weight increased slightly [113][114]. - **Import Supply**: In November, the pork import volume decreased month - on - month and year - on - year, and the cumulative import volume from January to November also decreased [120]. - **Second - Fattening Demand**: The second - fattening showed sporadic entry, and the cost increased with the rising pig price [122]. - **Slaughter Demand**: The slaughter enterprise's opening rate decreased, and the slaughter volume increased year - on - year in November. The opening rate is expected to remain weakly volatile [126]. 3.3.3 Later Outlook - **Viewpoint**: The supply side is expected to have a slight increase in pig出栏, and the second - fattening pressure is still high. The demand side shows that the second - fattening is on the sidelines, and the terminal consumption and slaughter volume have decreased. The spot price is expected to fluctuate, and the futures price is affected by factors such as supply increase and second - fattening pressure [129]. - **Strategy**: Futures investors should wait and see, and breeding enterprises should reduce hedging short positions with the出栏 [130]. Soybean Meal 3.4.1 Weekly Review and Operation Suggestions - **Spot Market**: As of January 16, the coastal soybean meal price was slightly weaker than a week ago [133]. - **Futures Market**: The US soybean main contract was weak this week. The USDA January report was bearish, and the Brazilian soybean harvest was expected to be abundant. The domestic 03 contract of soybean meal may be affected by the import soybean auction, while the 05 contract is under pressure due to the approaching Brazilian soybean arrival [134][135]. 3.4.2 Core Points - **Soybean Planting**: The USDA January report showed that the US soybean planting area decreased, the yield remained high, and the ending inventory increased. The Brazilian soybean planting was basically completed, and the Argentine soybean planting rate was 93.9%. The weather in Brazil was relatively normal, while the rainfall in Argentina was insufficient [136][137][138]. - **US Soybean Exports**: As of the week of January 8, the US soybean export volume increased, and the net sales also increased. The US - China trade agreement may affect future soybean purchases [146]. - **Domestic Soybean Import and Pressing**: The pressing profit of imported soybeans varied. The soybean pressing volume and opening rate decreased, and the soybean import volume and inventory changed. The future import soybean arrival will enter a relatively off - season [153][154][156]. - **Soybean Meal Transaction and Inventory**: The soybean meal inventory decreased, and the transaction volume increased this week due to the potential risk of soybean shortage at the end of the first quarter [160][163]. - **Basis and Inter - Month Spread**: The basis of the 05 contract of soybean meal increased, and the 3 - 5 spread continued to widen [164]. - **Domestic Registered Warehouse Receipts**: As of January 15, 2026, the domestic soybean meal registered warehouse receipts were at a relatively high level in the same period of history [170]. Eggs 3.5.1 Weekly Review and Operation Suggestions - **Spot Market**: The egg spot price has been rising since late December, mainly due to the decrease in laying hen inventory and seasonal demand. The price increase is expected to be higher than expected, but the de - capacity process is tortuous [173]. - **Operation Suggestions**: If the spot price maintains the current trend, the futures price may rebound, but it is recommended to reduce long positions and operate in a rolling manner after the upward momentum weakens [173]. 3.5.2 Data Summary - **Inventory and Replenishment**: The laying hen inventory is at a high level in the same period of history but is gradually decreasing. The replenishment momentum is weak, and the future laying hen inventory is likely to further decrease [174][176]. - **Cost, Income, and Breeding Profit**: The egg price increased, the feed cost was at a medium level, the egg - chick price was at a medium - low level, and the breeding profit was at a low level but improved [179]. - **Culled Hens**: The culling volume decreased, the culling age was delayed slightly, and the culled hen price increased but was still at a low level compared with the same period last year [184]. - **Demand, Inventory, and Pig Price**: The egg sales volume was at a low level in the same period of history, the inventory was relatively high, and the pig price was at a low level in the same period of history [190]. Cotton 3.6.1 Weekly Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Review**: The external market showed a slight recovery, and Zhengzhou cotton fluctuated widely. The macro - economic situation and domestic policies had an impact on the market. The domestic spot market had different trading situations, and the overseas market's supply - demand contradiction was not prominent [198][199][200]. - **Operation Suggestions**: In the short term, Zhengzhou cotton enters a wide - range volatile adjustment stage, and the medium - to - long - term trend is still positive [200][201]. 3.6.2 Core Points - **Cotton - Producing Countries' Situation**: The USDA January supply - demand report adjusted the global cotton supply - demand situation, with a decrease in beginning inventory, production, and ending inventory, and an increase in trade volume and consumption [202]. - **US Cotton Exports**: As of the week of January 8, the US cotton net signing and shipment volume changed, and the signing progress was lower than the same period last year and the five - year average [208]. - **Textile Enterprises' Operation**: The cotton inventory, yarn inventory, and fabric inventory of textile enterprises increased, and the yarn and fabric load indexes changed slightly [211]. - **Basis and Inter - Month Spread**: The spot basis of cotton increased, and the 5 - 9 spread decreased [223]. - **CFTC Positions and Domestic Registered Warehouse Receipts**: The non - commercial net position of cotton increased, and the domestic cotton registered warehouse receipts increased [225].