期货研究报告 2026年03月2日 生猪期货：近弱远强、加速筑底 高剑飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0014742 gaojianfei@nzfco.com 报告导读： 1、市场回顾与展望：2026 年（2.24–2.28）上周全国生猪现货价格延续节后下行态势，周内持续探 底后小幅企稳，整体跌幅收窄。截至2月28日，全国外三元生猪均价跌至10.8元/公斤左右（5.4元/斤）， 较前一周（2.17-2.23）的11.32元/公斤下跌0.52元/公斤，周跌幅约4.6%，其中3月2日全国外三元均价进一 步跌至10.79元/公斤，创近期新低后显露出止跌迹象。 期货研究报告 1.期现货市场回顾 展望：LH05合约11000-11600元/吨区间震荡，目前生猪合约近弱远强，加速筑底。 关注因素：1.能繁母猪存栏变化；2.消费复苏进度；3.政策调控动态等。 | 生猪 | 单位 | 最新一周 | 上一期 | 周度环比变化量 | 频率 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 仔猪 | 元/头 | 356.19 | 357.14 | -0.95 | 周度 | | 周度出栏均重 | 公斤 | ...

猪鸡价格冰火两重天，玉米景气继续提升 [Table_Industry] 农业 | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 王艳君(分析师) | 021-38674633 | wangyanjun2@gtht.com | S0880520100002 | | 林逸丹(分析师) | 021-38038436 | linyidan@gtht.com | S0880524090001 | | 巩健(分析师) | 021-23185702 | gongjian@gtht.com | S0880525040051 | 本报告导读： 养殖：猪鸡价格年后冰火两重天。种植：看好种植景气度提升。宠物: 汇率因素影响 短期出口表现，看好国内市场增长。 投资要点： [关注原油价格波动对油脂的影响。 Table_Summary] 投资建议：生猪推荐标的：牧原股份、温氏股份；后周期推荐标的：科前生 物、海大集团。农产品产业链推荐标的：晨光生物、诺普信、国投丰乐，相 关标的：康农种业、苏垦农发、北大荒。宠物推荐标的：乖宝宠物、中宠股 份、瑞普生物、佩 ...

行业 生猪日报 日期 2026 年 01 月 29 日 021-60635740 期货从业资格号：F3055047 021-60635732 yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0301101 021-60635727 期货从业资格号：F0230741 研究员：洪辰亮 021-60635572 hongchenliang@ccb.ccbfutures.co m 期货从业资格号：F3076808 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 农业产品研究团队 研究员：林贞磊 linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 研究员：余兰兰 研究员：王海峰 wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.com 研究员：刘悠然 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 一、行情回顾与操作建议 数据来源：涌益，建信期货研究中心 生猪行情： 期货方面，28 日生猪主力 2603 合约小幅高开后冲高回落震荡走跌，尾盘收 阴，最高 11340 元/吨，最低 11230 元/吨，收盘报 1 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information regarding the report industry investment rating is provided in the given content. 2. Report Core Views - The supply pressure of live pigs remains high, and the rebound of futures prices is under pressure. In the short - term, the spot is firm and macro funds boost the market, but the hedging pressure above 12,000 for off - season contracts increases. In the long - term, the supply in the first quarter continues to grow, and the price after the Spring Festival is under pressure. The price in the second half of the year is expected to be strong but still above the equilibrium level [5][54]. - The supply pressure of eggs still exists, and the rebound of the futures price is restricted. Although the demand before the Spring Festival drives up the egg price, the sufficient supply limits the increase. In the long - term, the supply pressure still exists, and the market needs to go through a bottom - grinding process [6][78]. - The short - term supply and demand of corn are balanced, and the futures price fluctuates at a high level. In the long - term, the supply - demand pattern in the 25/26 season is looser year - on - year, which restricts the upside space [7][104]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Feed and Livestock Views Summary 3.1.1 Live Pigs - **Period - Spot End**: As of January 16, the national spot price was 12.69 yuan/kg, up 0.18 yuan/kg from last week; the futures price of live pigs 2503 was up 210 yuan/ton. The high price suppresses consumption, but the slow enterprise出栏 rhythm and other factors drive up the price [5][54]. - **Supply End**: The inventory of reproductive sows is slowly decreasing, but the supply remains high before the first half of the year. The supply pressure in the first quarter is large according to piglet data. The planned出栏 volume of large - scale enterprises in January decreases, the出栏 weight increases, and the secondary fattening is sporadic [5][54]. - **Demand End**: The slaughter rate and volume decline, the fresh - sales rate increases, and the frozen - product inventory decreases. The Spring Festival stocking period has not started, and the demand growth is weak [5][54]. - **Cost End**: The prices of piglets and binary reproductive sows rise, the self - breeding and self - raising profit turns positive, and the cost of self - breeding and self - raising fattening pigs increases slightly [5][54]. - **Weekly Summary**: There is a risk of pig price decline in the short - term, and the price is not optimistic during the Spring Festival and after. The price in the second half of the year is expected to be strong but still above the equilibrium level [5][54]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: In the short - term, wait for the opportunity to short on rebounds. In the long - term, the industry can hedge at high prices when the profit is positive [5][54]. 3.1.2 Eggs - **Period - Spot End**: As of January 16, the average price in the main production areas was 3.6 yuan/jin, up 0.37 yuan/jin from last Friday; the futures price of eggs 2603 was up 32 yuan/500 kg. The approaching Spring Festival drives up the egg price [6][78]. - **Supply End**: The number of newly - opened laying hens in January is at an average level, and the inventory is slowly decreasing but still large. In the long - term, the supply pressure will gradually ease, but it still takes time [6][78]. - **Demand End**: The approaching Spring Festival drives up the demand, and the substitution demand is good. The inventory in the production link is not large, while that in the circulation link is relatively high [6][78]. - **Weekly Summary**: The egg price rises seasonally in the short - term, but the sufficient supply limits the increase. In the long - term, the supply pressure still exists [6][78]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: Wait for the spot price increase to be less than expected and hedge the 03 contract after the Spring Festival at high prices [6][78]. 3.1.3 Corn - **Period - Spot End**: As of January 16, the closing price of corn at Jinzhou Port in Liaoning was 2350 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton from last Friday; the futures price of corn 2603 was up 18 yuan/ton. The supply and demand are balanced, and the price is at a high level [7][104]. - **Supply End**: The national grain - selling progress is 53%, and the supply is relatively average. The import of corn increases, and the inventory in ports decreases [7][104]. - **Demand End**: The feed demand is rigid, but the increase in corn price may lead to a shift to wheat procurement. The deep - processing demand is limited by factors such as high inventory and low profit [7][104]. - **Weekly Summary**: The short - term supply and demand are balanced, and the price is at a high level. In the long - term, the supply - demand pattern is looser year - on - year [7][104]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: In the short - term, be cautious about chasing high prices, and hedging at high prices when the price rebounds. In the long - term, the upside space is restricted [7][104]. 3.2 Variety Industry Data Analysis 3.2.1 Live Pigs - **Weekly Market Review**: The futures price of live pigs 2503 rose, the basis decreased slightly, and the spot price increased [13]. - **Fundamental Data Review**: Data on supply, demand, cost, profit, etc. show that the supply pressure is large, and the self - breeding and self - raising profit turns positive [10]. - **Key Data Tracking**: The inventory of reproductive sows is slowly decreasing, the production performance is improving, and the supply in the first quarter is expected to be high [17]. 3.2.2 Eggs - **Weekly Market Review**: The spot and futures prices of eggs increased, and the basis strengthened [59]. - **Fundamental Data Review**: Data on price, supply, demand, inventory, and profit show that the supply pressure exists, and the demand before the Spring Festival drives the price up [60]. - **Key Data Tracking**: The inventory of laying hens is slowly decreasing, and the supply pressure will gradually ease in the long - term [78]. 3.2.3 Corn - **Weekly Market Review**: The spot and futures prices of corn increased, and the basis strengthened [84]. - **Fundamental Data Review**: Data on price, supply, demand, inventory, and profit show that the short - term supply and demand are balanced, and the long - term supply - demand pattern is looser [85]. - **Key Data Tracking**: The grain - selling progress is relatively fast, the import increases, and the demand is rigid but the deep - processing demand is limited [104].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Oils and Fats**: The global soybean harvest is expected to be abundant, and China's domestic soybean crushing volume is expected to decline. The inventory of soybean oil in coastal oil mills is in a seasonal de - stocking channel, but the absolute level is still higher than the historical average. The price of soybean oil futures Y2605 is expected to range from 7,900 to 8,200 yuan/ton, showing a volatile and slightly stronger pattern. Palm oil has strong support below 8,500 yuan due to production decline and export improvement in Malaysia. The Indonesian B50 policy suspension is a short - term negative, and the policy of confiscating illegal plantations may tighten long - term supply. For rapeseed oil, the market expects the Sino - Canadian trade relationship to ease, and attention should be paid to whether there are official signals of tariff adjustment [8][9]. - **Corn**: The supply side is affected by factors such as farmers' selling intentions and port inventory. The demand side includes feed and deep - processing demand. Overall, the supply - demand relationship may remain tight, and the spot price is expected to be strong. The futures price of the 2603 contract may also follow the spot price and be strong [77][78]. - **Pigs**: The supply side shows that the pig出栏 is expected to increase slightly in the short - to - medium term, and the second - fattening pen utilization rate is relatively high. The demand side shows that the second - fattening is on the sidelines, and the terminal consumption and slaughter volume have decreased. The spot price is expected to fluctuate, and the futures price is affected by factors such as supply increase and second - fattening pressure [129]. - **Soybean Meal**: The USDA January report is bearish for US soybeans, with increased ending stocks. The Brazilian soybean harvest is expected to be abundant, putting pressure on the market. The domestic 03 contract of soybean meal may be affected by the import soybean auction, while the 05 contract is under pressure due to the approaching Brazilian soybean arrival [134][135]. - **Eggs**: The spot price of eggs has been rising due to factors such as decreased laying hen inventory and seasonal demand. However, the de - capacity process is tortuous, and it is recommended to reduce long positions and operate in a rolling manner after the upward momentum weakens [173]. - **Cotton**: The USDA monthly report is relatively positive for the global cotton market. The domestic cotton market is in a wide - range volatile adjustment stage in the short term, and the medium - to - long - term trend is still positive. Attention should be paid to factors such as the actual decline in the cotton planting area in Xinjiang in the 2026/27 season [200][201]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Oils and Fats 3.1.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Review**: The prices of various oil contracts showed different degrees of increase. The USDA's soybean production data was higher than expected, and China's continuous purchase of US soybeans provided some support to the market, but the upcoming Brazilian harvest may weaken China's demand for US soybeans [8]. - **Operation Suggestions**: The price of soybean oil futures Y2605 is expected to range from 7,900 to 8,200 yuan/ton, with a volatile and slightly stronger pattern. Palm oil has support below 8,500 yuan, and attention should be paid to the policy changes in Indonesia and the Sino - Canadian trade relationship for rapeseed oil [8][9]. 3.1.2 Core Points - **Domestic Spot Changes**: As of January 16, 2025, the prices of soybean oil, rapeseed oil, and palm oil in different regions showed varying degrees of increase, and the basis also changed accordingly [10]. - **Domestic Three - Major Oil Inventories**: As of the end of the second week of 2026, the total inventory of the three major edible oils in China was 2.1417 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 104,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.67%, and a year - on - year increase of 7.76% [17]. - **Domestic Oilseed Supply**: The soybean opening rate of domestic oil mills increased, and the soybean crushing volume also increased. The inventory of imported soybeans in ports was relatively high, and the estimated arrival volume in January was about 7.597 million tons. The opening rate of imported rapeseed processing enterprises was almost stagnant, and the inventory of imported rapeseed in ports was about 120,000 tons [22][27][28]. - **Palm Oil Dynamics**: In January, the palm oil production in Malaysia decreased, and the export volume increased. Indonesia's B50 policy was postponed, and Malaysia's palm oil production and inventory were expected to change in 2026 [30][31]. - **CFTC Positions**: Speculative funds continued to reduce net long positions in soybeans for the fifth week, net - bought Chicago soybean oil for the first time in five weeks, and continued to net - sell Chicago soybean meal for the sixth week [41]. Corn 3.2.1 Market Review - **Spot Market**: The corn prices in the north port, northeast production area, and sales area increased, while the prices in the north China region continued to fluctuate. The increase in prices did not reduce the demand, and the downstream was in the pre - Spring Festival stocking period [44]. - **Futures Market**: As of January 15, the main 2603 contract of Dalian corn closed at 2,295 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 29 yuan/ton, or 1.26% [44]. 3.2.2 Fundamental Analysis - **Corn Supply**: The grain - selling progress was average, with the northeast being faster than the same period last year and the north China and northwest being slower. The port inventory decreased [46][47][49]. - **Domestic Substitutes**: The supply of wheat was stable, but the feed substitution demand was weak due to the lack of price advantage [50]. - **Imported Substitute Grains**: In November, the import of some grains increased, and the import of corn and other grains showed different trends. The import profit of Brazilian corn was relatively high, and the import volume may continue to increase in the future [52][62]. - **Feed Demand**: In November 2025, the national industrial feed output decreased month - on - month but increased year - on - year. The feed enterprises' inventory increased, and the pig inventory was expected to drive the feed demand to be good [63][69]. - **Deep - Processing Demand**: The corn starch industry's opening rate decreased, and the production profit was in a loss state. The inventory of deep - processing enterprises increased slightly, and there was still a certain demand for inventory replenishment before the Spring Festival [71][72]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: In the 2025/26 season, China's corn planting area, yield, and total output increased, and the consumption also increased. The market supply and demand were relatively tight, and the price had strong support [75][76]. 3.2.3 Later Outlook and Strategy - **Viewpoint**: The supply side may see a slight acceleration in the grain - selling rhythm before the Spring Festival, and the port inventory is still low. The substitute grains' import advantage is increasing. The demand side has a demand for inventory replenishment, but the profit of the breeding and deep - processing industries is not good. The overall supply - demand relationship is tight, and the spot and futures prices are expected to be strong [77][78]. - **Strategy**: Spot enterprises should replenish inventory appropriately, and futures investors should hold long positions [79]. Pigs 3.3.1 Market Review - **Spot Market**: The pig price continued to rise this week, with the supply side showing pressure - barring and weight - gaining, and the demand side having limited increase in slaughter volume due to high purchase costs [81]. - **Futures Market**: As of Thursday, the main contract LH2603 of pig futures fluctuated and rose, with a closing price of 11,950 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 230 yuan/ton, or 2% [82]. 3.3.2 Fundamental Overview - **Long - Term Supply**: The price of binary sows increased slightly, and the replenishment enthusiasm was average. The theoretical pig出栏 is expected to change according to the sow inventory data [89][90][93]. - **Medium - Term Supply**: The price of piglets increased, and the inventory decreased month - on - month but increased year - on - year. The theoretical pig出栏 is expected to change in the medium term [102][103]. - **Short - Term Supply**: The large - pig inventory decreased, and the proportion of large - pig inventory increased due to pressure - barring and second - fattening. The utilization rate of fattening pens increased [105][106]. - **Current Supply**: The actual pig出栏 in December was close to the plan, and the planned出栏 in January decreased. The average slaughter weight increased slightly [113][114]. - **Import Supply**: In November, the pork import volume decreased month - on - month and year - on - year, and the cumulative import volume from January to November also decreased [120]. - **Second - Fattening Demand**: The second - fattening showed sporadic entry, and the cost increased with the rising pig price [122]. - **Slaughter Demand**: The slaughter enterprise's opening rate decreased, and the slaughter volume increased year - on - year in November. The opening rate is expected to remain weakly volatile [126]. 3.3.3 Later Outlook - **Viewpoint**: The supply side is expected to have a slight increase in pig出栏, and the second - fattening pressure is still high. The demand side shows that the second - fattening is on the sidelines, and the terminal consumption and slaughter volume have decreased. The spot price is expected to fluctuate, and the futures price is affected by factors such as supply increase and second - fattening pressure [129]. - **Strategy**: Futures investors should wait and see, and breeding enterprises should reduce hedging short positions with the出栏 [130]. Soybean Meal 3.4.1 Weekly Review and Operation Suggestions - **Spot Market**: As of January 16, the coastal soybean meal price was slightly weaker than a week ago [133]. - **Futures Market**: The US soybean main contract was weak this week. The USDA January report was bearish, and the Brazilian soybean harvest was expected to be abundant. The domestic 03 contract of soybean meal may be affected by the import soybean auction, while the 05 contract is under pressure due to the approaching Brazilian soybean arrival [134][135]. 3.4.2 Core Points - **Soybean Planting**: The USDA January report showed that the US soybean planting area decreased, the yield remained high, and the ending inventory increased. The Brazilian soybean planting was basically completed, and the Argentine soybean planting rate was 93.9%. The weather in Brazil was relatively normal, while the rainfall in Argentina was insufficient [136][137][138]. - **US Soybean Exports**: As of the week of January 8, the US soybean export volume increased, and the net sales also increased. The US - China trade agreement may affect future soybean purchases [146]. - **Domestic Soybean Import and Pressing**: The pressing profit of imported soybeans varied. The soybean pressing volume and opening rate decreased, and the soybean import volume and inventory changed. The future import soybean arrival will enter a relatively off - season [153][154][156]. - **Soybean Meal Transaction and Inventory**: The soybean meal inventory decreased, and the transaction volume increased this week due to the potential risk of soybean shortage at the end of the first quarter [160][163]. - **Basis and Inter - Month Spread**: The basis of the 05 contract of soybean meal increased, and the 3 - 5 spread continued to widen [164]. - **Domestic Registered Warehouse Receipts**: As of January 15, 2026, the domestic soybean meal registered warehouse receipts were at a relatively high level in the same period of history [170]. Eggs 3.5.1 Weekly Review and Operation Suggestions - **Spot Market**: The egg spot price has been rising since late December, mainly due to the decrease in laying hen inventory and seasonal demand. The price increase is expected to be higher than expected, but the de - capacity process is tortuous [173]. - **Operation Suggestions**: If the spot price maintains the current trend, the futures price may rebound, but it is recommended to reduce long positions and operate in a rolling manner after the upward momentum weakens [173]. 3.5.2 Data Summary - **Inventory and Replenishment**: The laying hen inventory is at a high level in the same period of history but is gradually decreasing. The replenishment momentum is weak, and the future laying hen inventory is likely to further decrease [174][176]. - **Cost, Income, and Breeding Profit**: The egg price increased, the feed cost was at a medium level, the egg - chick price was at a medium - low level, and the breeding profit was at a low level but improved [179]. - **Culled Hens**: The culling volume decreased, the culling age was delayed slightly, and the culled hen price increased but was still at a low level compared with the same period last year [184]. - **Demand, Inventory, and Pig Price**: The egg sales volume was at a low level in the same period of history, the inventory was relatively high, and the pig price was at a low level in the same period of history [190]. Cotton 3.6.1 Weekly Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Review**: The external market showed a slight recovery, and Zhengzhou cotton fluctuated widely. The macro - economic situation and domestic policies had an impact on the market. The domestic spot market had different trading situations, and the overseas market's supply - demand contradiction was not prominent [198][199][200]. - **Operation Suggestions**: In the short term, Zhengzhou cotton enters a wide - range volatile adjustment stage, and the medium - to - long - term trend is still positive [200][201]. 3.6.2 Core Points - **Cotton - Producing Countries' Situation**: The USDA January supply - demand report adjusted the global cotton supply - demand situation, with a decrease in beginning inventory, production, and ending inventory, and an increase in trade volume and consumption [202]. - **US Cotton Exports**: As of the week of January 8, the US cotton net signing and shipment volume changed, and the signing progress was lower than the same period last year and the five - year average [208]. - **Textile Enterprises' Operation**: The cotton inventory, yarn inventory, and fabric inventory of textile enterprises increased, and the yarn and fabric load indexes changed slightly [211]. - **Basis and Inter - Month Spread**: The spot basis of cotton increased, and the 5 - 9 spread decreased [223]. - **CFTC Positions and Domestic Registered Warehouse Receipts**: The non - commercial net position of cotton increased, and the domestic cotton registered warehouse receipts increased [225].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views Oils and Fats - Palm oil: Facing pressure from high inventory, slow - down in export growth, and policy changes, it may weaken further after potentially breaking through the 4000 - ringgit support. Domestic palm oil may also fall below 8500 yuan [1]. - Soybean oil: CBOT soybean oil may oscillate narrowly. In the domestic market, although it is in the Spring Festival stocking season, the supply of soybeans and soybean oil is sufficient, and the spot basis quotation will have limited short - term fluctuations [1]. - Rapeseed oil: Affected by macro - sentiment and international oil price drops, as well as news from Canada, the rapeseed oil futures market is under pressure [1]. Cotton - ICE cotton futures are affected by the strong US dollar and demand concerns but supported by a strong export sales report. It is expected to maintain a low - level oscillation. Zhengzhou cotton may face short - term adjustments, but the overall bullish trend remains [2]. Sugar - ICE raw sugar futures continue to decline due to increased sugar production in India and sufficient supply. The domestic sugar market is expected to maintain a low - level oscillation [3]. Red Dates - With sufficient supply and weak demand in the 2025/26 production season, the futures price of red dates is running weakly [4]. Apples - In the short - term, the price in the production area is weakly stable, and the market activity in the sales area has declined. In the long - term, high prices may suppress consumption, and the futures market shows a pattern of near - strong and far - weak [7][12]. Corn and Corn Starch - The corn price in the Northeast is strong, and in North China, it oscillates narrowly. The demand side has different inventory situations. In the short - term, the corn price is supported by supply tightness and pre - holiday stocking, but the increase is limited by policy auctions [16][17]. Pigs - The spot price of pigs is back in an oscillatory pattern. The overall supply in January is expected to be sufficient. The basis is strong, but there is no obvious fundamental positive. It is recommended to short at high levels after the price stabilizes [18]. Meal - USDA's report has a short - term negative impact on the market, but the decline space of CBOT is limited. The domestic meal market is in a loose situation, but the low - level arrival expectation in the first quarter limits the downward space. The market will oscillate in the short - term [21]. Eggs - The egg market is in a situation of overall supply exceeding demand. The pre - holiday stocking drives up demand, but the price may experience short - term digestion pressure and a slight correction. The futures price is expected to oscillate within a range [25]. Summaries by Catalog Oils and Fats - **Price Changes**: On January 15, the prices of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil all declined. The decline rates of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil futures were - 0.78%, - 1.94%, and - 1.35% respectively [1]. - **Inventory and Warehouse Receipts**: The inventory and warehouse receipts of palm oil decreased, and the inventory of soybean oil and rapeseed oil also showed certain changes [1]. Cotton - **Futures Market**: On January 16, the prices of cotton 2605 and 2609 decreased, and the ICE cotton price increased slightly. The 5 - 9 spread decreased significantly [2]. - **Spot Market**: The spot prices of cotton in Xinjiang and the CC Index increased slightly [2]. - **Industry Situation**: The commercial inventory of Xinjiang cotton is rising, and the export sales of US cotton are strong [2]. Sugar - **Futures Market**: On January 16, the prices of sugar 2605 and 2609 decreased, and the ICE raw sugar price also declined [3]. - **Spot Market**: The spot price in Nanning remained unchanged, and the price in Kunming decreased slightly [3]. - **Industry Situation**: The sugar production in India increased, and the domestic sugar production, sales, and inventory showed different trends [3]. Red Dates - **Futures Market**: On January 16, the prices of red dates 2605, 2607, and 2609 all decreased [4]. - **Spot Market**: The spot prices of red dates in Cangzhou remained unchanged [4]. Apples - **Futures Market**: On January 16, the prices of apple 2605 and 2610 decreased, and the 5 - 10 spread decreased [7]. - **Spot Market**: The prices in the main production areas were weakly stable [12]. - **Market Activity**: The arrival volume in the wholesale market increased slightly, and the inventory in the cold storage decreased [7]. Corn and Corn Starch - **Corn**: The price of corn in the Northeast is strong, and in North China, it oscillates narrowly. The demand side has different inventory situations [16]. - **Corn Starch**: The price of corn starch increased slightly, and the basis decreased [16]. Pigs - **Futures Market**: On January 16, the prices of pig 2605 and 2603 decreased, and the 3 - 5 spread decreased [18]. - **Spot Market**: The spot prices in different regions showed different trends [18]. - **Industry Situation**: The slaughter volume decreased slightly, and the prices of piglets and sows increased slightly [18]. Meal - **Price Changes**: On January 16, the prices of soybean meal and rapeseed meal futures decreased slightly [21]. - **Inventory and Warehouse Receipts**: The warehouse receipts of soybean meal increased, and those of rapeseed meal remained unchanged [21]. - **Spreads and Ratios**: The spreads and ratios such as the oil - meal ratio and the soybean - rapeseed meal spread changed slightly [21]. Eggs - **Futures Market**: On January 16, the prices of egg 03 and 04 increased, and the 3 - 4 spread increased [25]. - **Spot Market**: The prices of egg - related products such as egg - laying chicken seedlings and culled chickens increased [25]. - **Industry Situation**: The egg market is in a situation of supply exceeding demand, but the pre - holiday stocking drives up demand [25].

期货研究报告 2026年01月05日 生猪期货：反弹乏力、震荡整理 高剑飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0014742 gaojianfei@nzfco.com 报告导读： 1、市场回顾与展望：上周生猪期现货货呈 "先强后弱、北涨南跌" 格局，期货主力震荡偏强、现货 节前冲高后随腌腊需求退潮回落，养殖端挺价与出栏节奏调整主导短期波动，整体处于底部博弈阶段。 图 1： 主力合约基差 元/吨 供应端：集团企业12月出栏完成度101.77%，1月计划环比降2.96%，养殖端挺价情绪浓，出栏节奏放缓， 二次育肥增多，短期供应减少。需求端：节前腌腊需求释放支撑价格，元旦后需求转弱，屠宰企业采购积 极性下降，北方消费韧性强于南方。 支撑因素：养殖端缩量挺价，集团出栏计划下调，二次育肥入场，北方消费支撑，猪粮比回升至盈亏 平衡线附近。压制因素：南方腌腊需求退潮，大体重猪源消化困难，市场整体供应仍充足，元旦后终端消 费转弱。分歧点：短期挺价与中期供应压力的博弈，北方消费韧性与南方需求疲软的区域分化，期货近弱 远强反映的预期差异。 关注因素：1.能繁母猪存栏变化；2.消费复苏进度；3.政策调控动态等。 | 生猪 | 单位 | 最新一 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No information is provided in the given reports regarding the industry investment rating. Core Views 粕类产业 - The US soybean market has support at the bottom due to ongoing exports, but the strong expectation of a bumper harvest in South America restricts the upside potential. The domestic soybean meal market remains in a loose supply - demand situation, with limited downside and no clear upward drivers [1]. 生猪产业 - Spot prices are slightly stronger. The demand for curing around the Winter Solstice has increased, and the slaughter cycle is extended. The market shows a short - term trend of being slightly stronger in a volatile manner [2]. 油脂 industry - Palm oil may enter the production - reduction season, with exports improving, providing support to the market. Soybean oil has potential support from increased bio - diesel production due to tax credits, and the domestic demand may increase. Rapeseed oil's focus is on whether the 05 contract can break through the 9000 - yuan resistance [4]. 玉米 industry - The supply of corn is affected by weather in the Northeast and the selling rhythm in the North China. The demand from deep - processing and feed enterprises is weak. The market shows a short - term weak and volatile pattern with limited downside [5]. 红枣 industry - The raw material acquisition in Xinjiang is almost finished, and the market arrival is less than in previous years. The hedging profit is negative, and the future trend depends on the consumption situation [8]. 白糖 industry - The ICE raw sugar futures are in a short - term rebound, but the overall supply outlook is loose, keeping the trend bearish. The domestic sugar market has stopped falling and is rebounding, but the rebound is limited by supply pressure [10]. 棉花 industry - ICE cotton futures are rising slightly due to weak dollar and strong export demand. The domestic cotton supply pressure is gradually released, and the demand from downstream spinning mills is weakening. The market is expected to fluctuate in a relatively strong range [12]. 鸡蛋 industry - The supply of laying hens is gradually decreasing, and the demand is expected to improve during the New Year and Spring Festival. However, the overall supply - demand contradiction is only marginally alleviated, and the near - term contracts are expected to fluctuate at the bottom [14]. 苹果 industry - The market consumption has slightly improved during the festival, but the apple market is squeezed by citrus fruits. Attention should be paid to the inventory - reduction rhythm, and long positions are advised to exit at an appropriate time [16]. Summary by Related Catalogs 粕类产业 - **Prices**: Jiangsu soybean meal spot price is 3100 yuan/ton, M2605 futures price is 2728 yuan/ton; Jiangsu rapeseed meal spot price is 2420 yuan/ton, RM2605 futures price is 2344 yuan/ton [1]. - **Spreads**: The soybean meal 05 - 09 spread is - 122, the rapeseed meal 05 - 09 spread is - 56, and the oil - meal ratio shows an increase [1]. 生猪产业 - **Futures**: The main contract basis is - 15 yuan/ton, the price of Niu Zhu 2605 is 11985 yuan/ton, and the price of Sheng Zhu 2603 is 11480 yuan/ton [2]. - **Spot**: The average spot price in various regions shows a slight increase, and the sample - point slaughter volume has increased by 0.16% [2]. 油脂 industry - **Prices**: The spot price of Jiangsu first - grade soybean oil is 8350 yuan/ton, Y2605 futures price is 7992 yuan/ton; the spot price of Guangdong 24 - degree palm oil is 8470 yuan/ton, P2605 futures price is 8486 yuan/ton; the spot price of Jiangsu third - grade rapeseed oil is 9560 yuan/ton, OI605 futures price is 9302 yuan/ton [4]. - **Spreads**: The soybean oil 05 - 09 spread is 64, the palm oil 05 - 09 spread is 124, and the rapeseed oil 05 - 09 spread is 42 [4]. 玉米 industry - **Prices**: The price of Yu Mi 2603 is 2196 yuan/ton, the Jinzhou Port FOB price is 2280 yuan/ton; the price of Yu Mi Dian Fen 2603 is 2494 yuan/ton [5]. - **Spreads**: The corn 3 - 5 spread is - 35, the corn starch 3 - 5 spread is - 44 [5]. 红枣 industry - **Prices**: The price of Hong Zao 2601 is 8800 yuan/ton, the price of Hong Zao 2605 (main contract) is 8890 yuan/ton [8]. - **Spreads**: The 1 - 5 spread of red dates is - 90, and the 5 - 9 spread is - 245 [8]. 白糖 industry - **Futures**: The price of Bai Tang 2601 is 5392 yuan/ton, the price of Bai Tang 2605 is 5262 yuan/ton, and the ICE raw sugar main contract price is 15.30 cents/pound [10]. - **Spot**: The Nanning spot price is 5340 yuan/ton, and the Kunming spot price is 5240 yuan/ton [10]. 棉花 industry - **Futures**: The price of Mian Hua 2605 is 14180 yuan/ton, the price of Mian Hua 2601 is 14210 yuan/ton, and the ICE cotton main contract price is 64.20 cents/pound [12]. - **Spot**: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B is 15081 yuan/ton, and the CC Index: 3128B is 15271 yuan/ton [12]. 鸡蛋 industry - **Prices**: The price of Ji Dan 01 contract is 3027 yuan/500KG, the price of Ji Dan 02 contract is 2947 yuan/500KG, and the egg - producing area price is 2.89 yuan/jin [14]. - **Spreads**: The 1 - 2 spread of eggs is 125 [14]. 苹果 industry - **Prices**: The price of Ping Guo 2605 (main contract) is 9191 yuan/ton, and the basis is - 991 yuan/ton [16]. - **Spreads**: The 1 - 5 spread of apples is 473, and the 5 - 10 spread is 1022 [16].

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Name: "养殖利润数据报告 - 大豆、生猪、鸡蛋" [1] - Release Date: December 23, 2025 [2] Group 2: Soybean Price and Profit Data - **Index Closing Prices**: The closing price of the Bean 2 Index was 3566.31 yuan/ton, up 0.26% from the previous value; the Bean Meal Index closed at 2833.20 yuan/ton, up 0.11%; and the Soybean Oil Index closed at 7796.60 yuan/ton, up 0.68% [2]. - **Active Contract Closing Prices**: The closing price of the Bean 2 active contract was 3712.00 yuan/ton, up 0.98%; the Bean Meal active contract closed at 2741 yuan/ton, up 0.22%; and the Soybean Oil active contract closed at 7772 yuan/ton, up 0.78% [2]. - **Pressing Profits**: The pressing profit of the Bean 2 Index was 3.27 yuan/ton, a significant change of -4308.70% from the previous value; the active contract pressing profit was -219.93 yuan/ton, up 9.93% [2]. - **Futures Closing Price Profits**: Profits of different delivery - continuous futures contracts showed varied trends, such as the continuous futures closing price of Bean 2 profit being 69.46 yuan/ton, down 21.82% [2]. - **CNF Price and Pressing Profit of Brazilian Soybeans**: The CNF price of Brazilian soybeans was 447.30 dollars/ton, down 0.49%, and the pressing profit was -65.76 yuan/ton, up 4.02% [2]. - **Spot Prices in Zhangjiagang**: The price of imported soybeans in Zhangjiagang was 3950.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price of soybean meal was 3100.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; and the spot price of grade - 4 soybean oil was 8290.00 yuan/ton, up 0.97% [2]. Group 3: Pig Price and Profit Data - **Index Closing Price**: The closing price of the Pig Index was 11880.45 yuan/ton, up 0.10% [4]. - **Profits**: The self - breeding and self - raising pig's on - disk profit was -247.73 yuan/head, down 0.52%; different delivery - continuous futures closing price profits of pigs showed different trends, e.g., the 9 - month delivery - continuous futures closing price profit was -69.12 yuan/head, up 9.05% [4][5]. - **Spot Prices and Profits**: The price of live pigs (foreign ternary) in Xinzheng, Henan was 11.68 yuan/kg, down 0.85%; the self - breeding and self - raising pig's spot profit was -322.326952 yuan/head, up 3.92%; the price of piglets (foreign ternary, 15kg) in Kaifeng, Henan was 21.00 yuan/kg, unchanged; the breeding profit of purchased piglets in China was -189.50 yuan/head (weekly), down 21.27% [4][5] Group 4: Egg Price and Profit Data - **Index Closing Price**: The closing price of the Egg Index was 3307.23 yuan/500 kg, up 0.67% [7]. - **Profits**: The egg's on - disk profit was -0.54 yuan/jin, down 3.84%; different delivery - continuous futures closing price profits of eggs showed different trends, e.g., the 9 - month delivery - continuous futures closing price profit was 0.14 yuan/jin, up 52.66% [7]. - **Average Wholesale Price and Spot Profit**: The average wholesale price of eggs in China was 7.48 yuan/kg, up 0.40%; the egg's spot profit was -0.29 yuan/jin, down 7.01% [7]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply of live pigs has increased as large - scale farms have normal slaughter volumes, heavy pigs from the previous period are actively sold, and some regions affected by diseases are also selling standard pigs. On the demand side, the activities of curing bacon and making sausage have increased, leading to a rise in terminal consumption, and the slaughtering enterprise's operating rate has continuously rebounded. Overall, the situation of both supply and demand increasing continues, and the live pig price is mainly in a volatile market. The near - month basis has returned, and the main contract price on the futures market is relatively weak [7]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Weekly Highlights Summary - **Market Review**: The live pig price fluctuated, rising first and then falling, and the main contract 2603 closed flat for the week [7][11]. - **Market Outlook**: Supply increased due to normal slaughter by large - scale farms, active sales of heavy pigs, and disease - affected sales of standard pigs. Demand increased as curing and sausage - making activities drove up terminal consumption and the slaughtering enterprise's operating rate rebounded. The price will mainly show a volatile trend [7]. 2. Futures and Spot Markets Futures Market - **Price Movement**: The futures price fluctuated, rising first and then falling, and the main contract 2603 closed flat for the week [7][11]. - **Net Position and Warehouse Receipts**: As of December 19, the net short position of the top 20 holders increased by 3748 lots to 46394 lots, and the number of futures warehouse receipts was 823, an increase of 300 from the previous week [17]. - **Contract Spreads**: The spread between lh2603 and lh2605 was - 600, and the spread between lh2603 and lh2607 was - 1335 [21]. Spot Market - **Base Difference**: The basis of the January contract was 650 yuan/ton, and the basis of the March contract was 475 yuan/ton this week [26]. - **Prices of Live Pigs and Piglets**: The national average price of live pigs was 11.60 yuan/kg, up 0.07 yuan/kg from the previous week. The average price of 15 - kg weaned piglets was 23.38 yuan/kg, the same as the previous week [36]. - **Prices of Pork and Sows**: On December 11, the national average price of pork was 22.59 yuan/kg, down 0.15 yuan/kg from the previous week. The average price of binary sows was 32.46 yuan/kg, the same as the previous week [40]. - **Pig - to - Grain Ratio**: As of the week of December 10, 2025, the pig - to - grain ratio was 5.18, down 0.03 from the previous week [44]. 3. Industry Situation Upstream - **Sow Inventory**: In October 2025, the inventory of breeding sows was 39.9 million, a month - on - month decrease of 1.12% and a year - on - year decrease of 2.038%. In November, according to Mysteel data, the inventory of breeding sows in large - scale farms decreased by 0.37% month - on - month and increased by 0.07% year - on - year, and that in small and medium - sized farms decreased by 0.78% month - on - month and increased by 0.78% year - on - year [49]. - **Live Pig Inventory**: At the end of the third quarter of 2025, the live pig inventory was 436.8 million, a month - on - month increase of 2.9% and a year - on - year increase of 2.3%. In November, according to Mysteel data, the inventory of commercial pigs in large - scale farms increased by 0.32% month - on - month and 5.28% year - on - year, and that in small and medium - sized farms decreased by 0.07% month - on - month and increased by 6.94% year - on - year [53]. - **Slaughter Volume and Average Weight**: In November, according to Mysteel data, the slaughter volume of commercial pigs in large - scale farms decreased by 0.65% month - on - month and increased by 5.59% year - on - year, and that in small and medium - sized farms decreased by 2.03% month - on - month and increased by 29.75% year - on - year. The average slaughter weight of live pigs was 123.67 kg, down 0.03 kg from the previous week [58]. Industry as a Whole - **Breeding Profits**: As of December 19, the loss of purchasing piglets for breeding was 189.5 yuan/head, a reduction of 51.19 yuan/head; the loss of self - breeding and self - raising was 130.88 yuan/head, a reduction of 32.46 yuan/head. The egg - laying hen breeding profit was - 0.36 yuan/head, the same as the previous week, and the 817 hybrid broiler breeding profit was 0.4 yuan/head, an increase of 0.42 yuan/head [63]. - **Pork Imports**: From January to November 2025, the cumulative pork imports were 920,000 tons, with an average monthly import of 83,600 tons. In November, the import volume was 60,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 33.33% [64][68]. - **Substitute Products**: As of the week of December 19, the price of white - striped chickens was 14.1 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.2 yuan/kg from the previous week. As of the week of December 18, the average price difference between standard and fat pigs was - 0.48 yuan/kg, a reduction of 0.02 yuan/kg from the previous week [71]. - **Feed Situation**: As of December 19, the spot price of soybean meal was 3137.14 yuan/ton, a decrease of 22.29 yuan/ton from the previous week; the corn price was 2348.63 yuan/ton, a decrease of 8.04 yuan/ton from the previous week. The closing price of the DCE pig feed cost index was 880.96, and the price of finishing pig compound feed was 3.33 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.01 yuan/kg from the previous week. In November 2025, the monthly feed output was 29.77 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 209,000 tons, and the sales of piglet feed increased by 0.42% month - on - month and 53.28% year - on - year [76][79][83]. - **CPI**: As of November 2025, China's CPI increased by 0.7% year - on - year [87]. Downstream - **Slaughtering Enterprises**: In the 51st week, the operating rate of slaughtering enterprises was 39.87%, an increase of 1.33 percentage points from the previous week and 2.08 percentage points from the same period last year. The fresh - meat sales rate was 87.86%, an increase of 0.79% from the previous week, and the frozen - product storage rate was 18.19%, a decrease of 0.07% from the previous week [90]. - **Slaughter Volume and Catering Consumption**: As of October 2025, the slaughter volume of designated pig slaughtering enterprises was 38.34 million, an increase of 6.98% from the previous month and 33.31% from the same period last year. In November 2025, the national catering revenue was 605.7 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.2% [95]. 4. Live Pig - Related Stocks - The report shows the trend charts of Muyuan Co., Ltd. and Wens Co., Ltd., but no specific analysis is provided [96][99]