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古茗(01364):区域深耕成就万店规模,打造中端茶饮高成长新范式
Guoxin Securities· 2025-07-08 14:47
Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform" rating to the company [4][6]. Core Insights - The company is the leading brand in the mid-range ready-to-drink tea segment, achieving a store count of 9,914 by the end of 2024, making it the largest in its category [1][16]. - The mid-range ready-to-drink tea market is projected to reach approximately RMB 161.5 billion in 2025, with a CAGR of 20.8% from 2024 to 2028, indicating strong growth potential [2]. - The company has a robust growth strategy focusing on store expansion and improving same-store sales, with expectations of net store additions of 2,100, 2,350, and 2,450 in 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [3][4]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Founded in 2010, the company has expanded rapidly across China, with a significant presence in 17 provinces and a focus on franchise operations [1][16]. - The company went public on February 12, 2025, marking a significant milestone as the first Zhejiang tea company to list [1][16]. Market Analysis - The mid-range tea segment is characterized by intense competition, with the company holding the largest market share as of 2023, followed closely by other brands [2][14]. - The report emphasizes the importance of supply chain management and product innovation to maintain competitive advantage in a crowded market [2][15]. Growth Drivers - The company’s growth is driven by a dual strategy of expanding its store network and enhancing the average sales per store, with a projected average GMV of RMB 2.34 million per mature franchise store [3][4]. - The company aims to reach a store count of 27,000 by 2030 under a neutral scenario, with revenue and profit projections of RMB 29.3 billion and RMB 5.3 billion respectively [3][4]. Financial Projections - Revenue is expected to grow from RMB 87.9 billion in 2024 to RMB 113.3 billion in 2025, reflecting a growth rate of 28.9% [5][36]. - Adjusted net profit is projected to increase from RMB 15.4 billion in 2024 to RMB 20.1 billion in 2025, representing a growth of 30.1% [5][36]. Investment Recommendation - The report suggests a target PE ratio of 32-35x for 2025, with a market capitalization range of RMB 64.2 billion to RMB 70.2 billion, indicating a potential upside from the current share price [4][6].