Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The report believes that in the short - term, the polyolefin market is still in a weak and volatile state due to factors such as the peak season falling short of expectations and the recurrence of tariffs. In the fourth quarter, as new plants are put into operation, the supply - demand situation will gradually ease, and it is recommended to short at high prices or conduct reverse spreads on monthly differentials [5][6][7]. Summary by Directory (1) Spot Price, Futures - Spot Price Difference, and Inter - Period Spread - This week, the LDPE and PP spot prices and main contracts both declined slightly. The basis of both strengthened slightly, and the 1/5 spread fluctuated slightly [16]. (2) Polyolefin US Dollar Price and Import Profit - This week, the LLDPE US dollar price was stable with a slight decline. The RMB exchange rate depreciated slightly, and the domestic price dropped slightly. The low - price import window and export window were both closed. The domestic CFR price remained stable, and the discount of China to Southeast Asia narrowed to 45 US dollars. The PP US dollar price was also stable with a slight decline. The RMB exchange rate depreciated slightly, and the domestic spot price dropped slightly. The low - price import window was opened, and the export window was closed [27]. (3) Polyolefin Industry Profit and Spread - This week, the upstream crude oil price, petroleum price, and olefin monomers all declined slightly. The polyolefin price was stable with a slight decline. The decline of crude oil was greater than that of olefins, so the olefin production profit expanded slightly. The decline of coal was less than that of olefins, so the olefin production profit narrowed slightly. The increase of propylene was less than that of PP powder, so the powder loss narrowed, and the spread between PP draw and powder narrowed slightly. The PE downstream production profit expanded slightly, and the PP downstream BOPP profit recovered slightly but remained at a low level [36][47]. (4) Polyolefin Substitution - Related Spreads - This week, the LLDPE - HDPE spread narrowed slightly and was at a normal low level. The HDPE's support for LLDPE became stronger. The LLDPE - LDPE spread rebounded slightly and was at a low level. The copolymer - homopolymer spread expanded slightly and was at a normal level. The HD - PP spread narrowed slightly and was at a normal level. The PE new - material and PE recycled - material spread was at a normal level and narrowed slightly. The PP new - material and PP recycled - material spread was at a medium level and narrowed slightly [56]. (5) Supply - Demand and Industrial Chain Inventory - PE's supply - demand situation weakens in the second half of the year, and the pressure increases in the fourth quarter. PP's supply pressure rises in the second half of the year, and the supply - demand pressure increases in the third and fourth quarters. It is necessary to shut down high - cost plants to achieve re - balance. In 2025, the planned PE maintenance increases compared to 2024, with more maintenance in the second and third quarters. The PP maintenance in 2025 also increases compared to 2024, with more in the first half of the year and less in the second half. This week, the PE and PP industrial chain inventories decreased slightly and were at normal levels in previous years. The downstream gradually replenished their inventories [60][65][70]. (6) Downstream Operating Rate and Production Profit - This week, the average operating rate of PP powder was 35.58%, up 1.64% month - on - month and down 16.67% year - on - year. The domestic PE downstream operating rate rose slightly. The PP downstream enterprise operating rate also recovered steadily [88][93][98]. (7) Weekly Outlook - LLDPE: In the short - term, affected by the recurrence of Sino - US tariffs, it is in a weak and volatile state, and the supply - demand will gradually ease in the fourth quarter. It is recommended to short at high prices or conduct reverse spreads on monthly differentials. - PP: Similar to LLDPE, in the short - term, it is weak and volatile, and in the fourth quarter, with new plants put into operation, the supply - demand will ease, and it is recommended to short at high prices or conduct reverse spreads on monthly differentials [100][101].