Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The report believes that in the short - term, the polyolefin market is still in a weak and volatile state due to factors such as the peak season falling short of expectations and the recurrence of tariffs. In the fourth quarter, as new plants are put into operation, the supply - demand situation will gradually ease, and it is recommended to short at high prices or conduct reverse spreads on monthly differentials [5][6][7]. Summary by Directory (1) Spot Price, Futures - Spot Price Difference, and Inter - Period Spread - This week, the LDPE and PP spot prices and main contracts both declined slightly. The basis of both strengthened slightly, and the 1/5 spread fluctuated slightly [16]. (2) Polyolefin US Dollar Price and Import Profit - This week, the LLDPE US dollar price was stable with a slight decline. The RMB exchange rate depreciated slightly, and the domestic price dropped slightly. The low - price import window and export window were both closed. The domestic CFR price remained stable, and the discount of China to Southeast Asia narrowed to 45 US dollars. The PP US dollar price was also stable with a slight decline. The RMB exchange rate depreciated slightly, and the domestic spot price dropped slightly. The low - price import window was opened, and the export window was closed [27]. (3) Polyolefin Industry Profit and Spread - This week, the upstream crude oil price, petroleum price, and olefin monomers all declined slightly. The polyolefin price was stable with a slight decline. The decline of crude oil was greater than that of olefins, so the olefin production profit expanded slightly. The decline of coal was less than that of olefins, so the olefin production profit narrowed slightly. The increase of propylene was less than that of PP powder, so the powder loss narrowed, and the spread between PP draw and powder narrowed slightly. The PE downstream production profit expanded slightly, and the PP downstream BOPP profit recovered slightly but remained at a low level [36][47]. (4) Polyolefin Substitution - Related Spreads - This week, the LLDPE - HDPE spread narrowed slightly and was at a normal low level. The HDPE's support for LLDPE became stronger. The LLDPE - LDPE spread rebounded slightly and was at a low level. The copolymer - homopolymer spread expanded slightly and was at a normal level. The HD - PP spread narrowed slightly and was at a normal level. The PE new - material and PE recycled - material spread was at a normal level and narrowed slightly. The PP new - material and PP recycled - material spread was at a medium level and narrowed slightly [56]. (5) Supply - Demand and Industrial Chain Inventory - PE's supply - demand situation weakens in the second half of the year, and the pressure increases in the fourth quarter. PP's supply pressure rises in the second half of the year, and the supply - demand pressure increases in the third and fourth quarters. It is necessary to shut down high - cost plants to achieve re - balance. In 2025, the planned PE maintenance increases compared to 2024, with more maintenance in the second and third quarters. The PP maintenance in 2025 also increases compared to 2024, with more in the first half of the year and less in the second half. This week, the PE and PP industrial chain inventories decreased slightly and were at normal levels in previous years. The downstream gradually replenished their inventories [60][65][70]. (6) Downstream Operating Rate and Production Profit - This week, the average operating rate of PP powder was 35.58%, up 1.64% month - on - month and down 16.67% year - on - year. The domestic PE downstream operating rate rose slightly. The PP downstream enterprise operating rate also recovered steadily [88][93][98]. (7) Weekly Outlook - LLDPE: In the short - term, affected by the recurrence of Sino - US tariffs, it is in a weak and volatile state, and the supply - demand will gradually ease in the fourth quarter. It is recommended to short at high prices or conduct reverse spreads on monthly differentials. - PP: Similar to LLDPE, in the short - term, it is weak and volatile, and in the fourth quarter, with new plants put into operation, the supply - demand will ease, and it is recommended to short at high prices or conduct reverse spreads on monthly differentials [100][101].

5 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 PTA&MEG早报-2025年10月14日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 投资咨询资格证号：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 今日关注 基本面数据 PTA 每日观点 PTA： 6、预期：节后PTA现货市场商谈氛围一般，现货基差小幅走弱，部分PTA装置检修降幅叠加新装置投产推迟，PTA供需预期改善， 预计短期内现货价格仍跟随成本端震荡为主，关注装置变动及下游产销情况。 1、基本面：上周五隔夜原油暴跌，不过周一超跌修复，昨日PTA期货低开震荡，最终跌幅不大，PTA昨日PTA期货震荡收跌，现 货市场商谈氛围一般，现货基差走弱，贸易商商谈为主，个别聚酯工厂有递盘。11月成交商谈氛围好转。午后，市场传闻独山 能源4期300万吨PTA装置计划10月下投产，目前尚未确定具体时间，不过新装置投产的话，届时一套 ...

塑 料 日期 东北亚乙 烯 华北LL 华东LL 华东LD 华东HD LL美金 LL美湾 进口利润 主力期货 基差 两油库存 仓单 2025/09/2 9 815 7100 7215 9500 7350 830 785 -19 7181 -80 56 12736 2025/09/3 0 810 7080 7215 9500 7350 820 767 -42 7153 -80 59 12736 2025/10/0 9 805 7025 7200 9525 7350 830 774 -42 7077 -40 86 12729 2025/10/1 0 785 6980 7150 9375 7350 820 767 -42 7037 -50 85 12795 2025/10/1 3 785 6950 7150 9375 7350 820 767 -42 6983 -50 85 12729 日度变化 0 -30 0 0 0 0 0 0 -54 0 0 -66 观点 聚乙烯，两油库存同比中性，上游两油去库，煤化工去库，社会库存持平，下游库存原料中性，成品库存中性。整体库存中性，09 基差华北-110左右，华东-50，外盘欧 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Urea: ☆☆☆ (indicating a short - term relatively balanced state with poor operability on the current trading floor) [1] - Methanol: ★★★ (indicating a clearer long - position trend with relatively appropriate investment opportunities) [1] - Pure Benzene: ★★★ [1] - Styrene: ★★★ [1] - Polypropylene: ☆☆☆ [1] - Plastic: ☆☆☆ [1] - PVC: ☆☆☆ [1] - Caustic Soda: ☆☆☆ [1] - PX: ★★★ [1] - PTA: ★★★ [1] - Ethylene Glycol: ☆☆☆ [1] - Short Fiber: ★★★ [1] - Glass: ☆☆☆ [1] - Soda Ash: ☆☆☆ [1] - Bottle Chip: ☆☆☆ [1] - Propylene: ☆☆☆ [1] Core Viewpoints - The overall performance of the chemical industry is weak, with different products showing varying trends in supply, demand, and price [2][3][5] - Some products may have short - term price fluctuations due to factors such as changes in supply and demand, seasonal factors, and cost pressures [2][5][6] Summary by Category Olefins - Polyolefins - Olefin futures main contracts continued to decline. Propylene demand improved as prices dropped, but market supply showed an increasing trend [2] - Polyolefin futures main contracts had a narrow decline. Polyethylene demand increased as downstream factory operating rates rose, and supply decreased due to many domestic maintenance enterprises. Polypropylene supply may slightly shrink, but downstream procurement enthusiasm was restricted [2] Pure Benzene - Styrene - Pure benzene continued its weak trend, with a slight decline in weekly开工 and low - level fluctuations in processing margins. The domestic pure benzene market supply - demand may improve in the third quarter, but high import volume expectations suppressed market sentiment [3] - Styrene futures main contracts declined. Supply had unplanned reductions, but demand entered a dull period, and there may be low - price promotions by northern enterprises before the National Day [3] Polyester - PTA price was under pressure, and the PTA - PX spread continued to rebound. The short - term market was weak, but there was an expectation of downstream stocking before the festival [5] - Ethylene glycol returned to the bottom of the range. Domestic开工 increased slightly, and the market was expected to be weak, but the actual supply pressure was not large [5] - Short - fiber futures prices declined. Near - month short - fiber could be allocated more on the long side, and positive spreads could be bought at low prices [5] - Bottle chip operating rate slightly declined, with a slight reduction in inventory and a small repair in processing margins, but the long - term pressure of over - capacity limited the repair space [5] Coal Chemical Industry - Methanol main contracts showed a strong - side shock. Short - term supply - demand difference was expected to narrow, and long - term attention should be paid to the actual implementation of overseas gas restrictions [6] - Urea main contracts continued to decline. The domestic urea market remained in a state of loose supply - demand, with the market oscillating at a low level [6] Chlor - Alkali - PVC remained in a state of loose supply - demand, with large inventory pressure. It may have an oscillating and weak trend [7] - Caustic soda showed regional differentiation. The futures price may oscillate [7] Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash had inventory accumulation again. In the short - term, it was expected to fluctuate with the macro - sentiment, and the long - term supply surplus pattern remained unchanged [8] - Glass continued the pattern of high supply and weak demand. The futures price was expected to fluctuate with the macro - sentiment [8]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints Methanol - High imports are materializing, inventory accumulation has begun, and the futures price is undervalued. Wait for the off - season expectations to be fully priced in. The market is in a period of bearish factors being realized. With macro instability and weak methanol prices in Europe and the US, it's hard to determine the unilateral direction. Given the low valuation, it's advisable to consider going long when the price is low [1] Plastic (Polyethylene) - The inventory of Sinopec and PetroChina is at a neutral level year - on - year. Overall inventory is neutral. The 09 basis is around 0 in North China and +120 in East China. Import profit is around - 400 with no further increase for now. Non - standard HD injection prices are stable, other spreads are fluctuating, and LD is weakening. In June, maintenance decreased month - on - month, and domestic linear production increased month - on - month. Attention should be paid to LL - HD conversion and US quotes, as well as the commissioning of new plants in 2025 [8] PP - The upstream and mid - stream inventories of polypropylene are decreasing. The basis is +100, non - standard spreads are neutral, and the import profit is around - 500. Exports have been good this year. Non - standard spreads are neutral. PDH profit is around - 1000, propylene is fluctuating, and powder production is stable. The supply in June is expected to increase slightly month - on - month. Downstream orders are average currently, with neutral raw material and finished - product inventories. In the context of over - capacity, the 09 contract is under moderate to excessive pressure. If exports continue to grow or more PDH plants are shut down for maintenance, the supply pressure can be alleviated to a neutral level [8] PVC - The basis has strengthened to 09 - 150, and the factory - pickup basis is - 420. Downstream开工 is seasonal, and there is a strong willingness to hold goods at low prices. Mid - and upstream inventories are continuously decreasing. Summer seasonal maintenance of northwest plants is ongoing, with the load between the spring maintenance and Q1 high - production levels. In June, attention should be paid to the commissioning of new plants and the sustainability of exports. Near - term export orders are okay. In June, macro factors such as the Politburo meeting and the US interest - rate decision should be monitored. Coal prices are weak, and the cost of semi - coke is also weak. Calcium carbide may have difficulty expanding profits as PVC plants are under maintenance. The export counter - offer for caustic soda is FOB400. The current static inventory is at a high level but is decreasing. The downstream performance is mediocre, and the macro situation is neutral. Attention should be paid to exports, coal prices, commercial housing sales, terminal orders, and开工 [11] Summary by Product Methanol - From June 30 to July 4, the power coal futures price remained at 801. The Jiangsu spot price decreased from 2785 to 2455, a decrease of 330. The import profit decreased by 3, and the main contract basis decreased by 10. The MTO profit on the futures盘面 increased by 49 [1] Plastic (Polyethylene) - From June 30 to July 4, the Northeast Asian ethylene price remained at 850. The North China LL price remained at 7200, the East China LL price increased by 10, and the East China LD price increased by 25. The import profit remained unchanged, and the main contract futures price decreased by 2. The basis decreased by 10, and the warehouse receipts increased by 200 [8] PP - From June 30 to July 4, the Shandong propylene price decreased from 6600 to 6550, a decrease of 50. The East China PP price decreased by 5, and the North China PP price increased by 20. The export profit remained unchanged, the main contract futures price increased by 4, and the basis decreased by 20. The warehouse receipts decreased by 100 [8] PVC - From June 30 to July 4, the Northwest calcium carbide price decreased from 2450 to 2350, a decrease of 100. The import US dollar price (CFR China) decreased from 720 to 700. The export profit decreased from 602 to 465. The basis remained at - 80 [10][11]

研究中心能化团队 2025/06/09 甲 醇 日期 动力煤期 货 江苏现货 华南现货 鲁南折盘 面 西南折盘面 河北折盘 面 西北折盘 面 CFR中国 CFR东南 亚 进口利润 主力基差 盘面MTO 利润 2025/05/3 0 801 2265 2283 2350 2510 2300 2495 256 320 32 35 -849 2025/06/0 3 801 2288 2290 2350 2520 2300 2463 260 320 35 60 -891 2025/06/0 4 801 2312 2308 2340 2500 2320 2475 261 320 51 45 -962 2025/06/0 5 801 2317 2300 2345 2500 2320 2493 262 320 38 42 -966 2025/06/0 6 801 2322 2313 2350 2500 2320 2493 262 320 36 40 -967 日度变化 0 5 13 5 0 0 0 0 0 -2 -2 -1 甲醇聚烯烃早报 观点 高进口开始兑现，累库开始发生，盘面低估值，等待淡季预期交易到位；伊朗降开工，非 ...

甲醇聚烯烃早报 塑 料 日期 东北亚乙 烯 华北LL 华东LL 华东LD 华东HD LL美金 LL美湾 进口利润 主力期货 基差 两油库存 仓单 2025/05/2 2 780 7260 7450 9075 7800 855 917 -84 7159 40 80 5312 2025/05/2 3 780 7150 7400 9000 7780 855 917 -109 7085 40 80 5259 2025/05/2 6 780 7100 7375 9000 7780 855 917 -139 7080 60 80 5259 2025/05/2 7 780 7025 7300 8950 7750 855 917 -224 7007 40 80 5259 2025/05/2 8 780 6980 7275 8950 7750 855 917 -224 6972 20 80 5259 日度变化 0 -45 -25 0 0 0 0 0 -35 -20 0 0 观点 聚乙烯，两油库存同比中性，上游过节累库，煤化工累库，下游库存原料中性，成品库存中性。整体库存中性，05基差华北+300， 华东+300，外盘欧美稳，东 ...