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1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The energy and chemical industry continues to trade sideways, with olefins showing weakness and aromatics presenting a slightly stronger pattern. [4] - The current oversupply situation in the crude oil market persists, but geopolitical factors and the strength of crack spreads provide some support. Oil prices are expected to trade sideways in the short term. [8] - The price of asphalt futures is expected to trade weakly due to factors such as the potential increase in production by OPEC+ in December, the end of the Israel - Palestine conflict, and the possible resumption of Russia - Ukraine talks. [9] - The prices of high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil futures are expected to trade weakly, influenced by factors like the potential increase in production by OPEC+ and changes in supply and demand. [9][11] - Methanol prices are expected to trade sideways with a downward bias due to high inventory levels and a supply - demand imbalance. [26] - Ethylene glycol prices are expected to trade within a low - level range due to the impact of new production capacity and increasing inventory. [18][21] - The prices of other chemical products such as PX, PTA, and short - fiber are also expected to trade sideways, with their trends affected by factors such as supply and demand, cost, and market sentiment. [12][13][22] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Overview - The price of crude oil continues to trade sideways due to the interaction between the signs of the resumption of operations at a key Russian port and extensive geopolitical risks. The price of methanol and ethylene glycol has seen an unexpected increase in inventory. [2][3] 3.2 Variety Analysis Crude Oil - **Market News**: There are uncertainties regarding risks related to Russia and Venezuela. The resumption of oil shipments from Kazakhstan at the Novorossiysk port has been reported, and Trump may talk to Maduro. [8] - **Main Logic**: Geopolitical factors, the relief of refined oil inventory pressure, and the strength of crack spreads provide short - term support for crude oil demand. However, the current oversupply situation and the continuous increase in inventory are difficult to change, leading to sideways price movement. [8] - **Outlook**: In the short term, the supply pressure persists, the crack spread points to an optimistic outlook for refinery operations, and geopolitical concerns remain, resulting in short - term sideways trading. [8] Asphalt - **Market News**: On November 17, 2025, the main asphalt futures closed at 3037 yuan/ton, and the spot prices in East China, Northeast China, and Shandong were 3290 yuan/ton, 3450 yuan/ton, and 3020 yuan/ton respectively. [8] - **Main Logic**: With the potential increase in production by OPEC+ in December, the end of the Israel - Palestine conflict, and the possible resumption of Russia - Ukraine talks, as well as the cooling of the US - Venezuela situation, the asphalt futures price is trading below the 3200 - yuan pressure level. The supply - demand imbalance and high inventory pressure remain. [9] - **Outlook**: The absolute price of asphalt is overvalued, and the monthly spread of asphalt is expected to decline as the number of warehouse receipts increases. [9] High - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Market News**: On November 17, 2025, the main high - sulfur fuel oil contract closed at 2622 yuan/ton. [9] - **Main Logic**: With the potential increase in production by OPEC+ in December and the end of the Israel - Palestine conflict, the supply of high - sulfur fuel oil in the Asia - Pacific region may decline due to the reduction in Russian exports. However, the demand for fuel oil remains weak. [9] - **Outlook**: Geopolitical factors may cause short - term price fluctuations, and attention should be paid to the development of the Russia - Ukraine situation. [9] Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Market News**: On November 17, 2025, the main low - sulfur fuel oil contract closed at 3240 yuan/ton. [11] - **Main Logic**: Low - sulfur fuel oil follows the movement of crude oil prices. It is facing negative factors such as a decline in shipping demand, green energy substitution, and high - sulfur fuel substitution, but its current valuation is low. [11] - **Outlook**: Low - sulfur fuel oil is expected to follow the movement of crude oil prices, with limited substitution demand space. [11] Methanol - **Market News**: On November 17, the spot price of methanol in Taicang was 2005 yuan/ton, and the port inventory continued to increase. [26] - **Main Logic**: The domestic methanol supply is abundant, and the import of goods has an impact on the market. The high inventory level suppresses the price, and the market is in a supply - strong and demand - weak situation. [26] - **Outlook**: In the short term, it is expected to trade within a narrow low - level range, waiting for overseas market information. [26] Ethylene Glycol - **Market News**: On November 17, the domestic ethylene glycol market was adjusted sideways, and the inventory continued to increase. [18] - **Main Logic**: New production capacity has an impact on the market, and although some coal - based plants are under maintenance, the new plants are gradually coming into operation, resulting in high inventory pressure. [18][21] - **Outlook**: In the long term, the inventory pressure is large, and the price is expected to trade within a low - level range. [21] Other Chemical Products - **PX**: The supply of xylene is sufficient, and the impact of blending for gasoline on PX is limited in the short term. The load of PX remains stable. [12] - **PTA**: The emotional impact has ended, and attention should be paid to the rhythm of plant changes. [13] - **Short - Fiber**: The fundamentals are weak, and the price of polyester staple fiber is expected to continue to adjust weakly. [22] - **Bottle Chip**: The trading atmosphere has declined, and it is passively following the cost. [24] - **Propylene**: The downstream trading volume has increased, and the price of PL is expected to trade sideways. [28] - **PP**: The short - term driving force is limited, and attention should be paid to the changes in maintenance. [28] - **Plastic**: The upcoming cold snap next week may boost the raw material support, and the price of plastic is expected to trade sideways. [27] - **Styrene**: The narrative of blending for gasoline has an impact, and short - sellers have reduced their positions. [17] - **PVC**: With low valuation and weak supply - demand, the price is expected to trade sideways. [31] - **Caustic Soda**: The spot pressure remains high, and the futures price is expected to be cautious and weak. [32] 3.3 Data Monitoring 3.3.1 Inter - Period Spread - The inter - period spreads of various varieties such as Brent, PX, PTA, and MEG are presented, showing different changes. For example, the 1 - 5 month spread of PX is - 24 with a change of 2. [34] 3.3.2 Basis and Warehouse Receipts - The basis and warehouse receipts of different varieties are provided. For instance, the basis of asphalt is - 12 with a change of 15, and the number of warehouse receipts is 30110. [35] 3.3.3 Inter - Variety Spread - The inter - variety spreads such as 1 - month PP - 3MA and 1 - month TA - EG are given, along with their changes. For example, the 1 - month PP - 3MA spread is 380 with a change of 71. [37] 3.4 Index Performance - The comprehensive index, characteristic index, and sector index of the commodity are presented. For example, the comprehensive index is 2254.19 with a change of - 0.24%, and the energy index on November 17, 2025, has a daily increase of 0.11%. [278][279]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The report believes that in the short - term, the polyolefin market is still in a weak and volatile state due to factors such as the peak season falling short of expectations and the recurrence of tariffs. In the fourth quarter, as new plants are put into operation, the supply - demand situation will gradually ease, and it is recommended to short at high prices or conduct reverse spreads on monthly differentials [5][6][7]. Summary by Directory (1) Spot Price, Futures - Spot Price Difference, and Inter - Period Spread - This week, the LDPE and PP spot prices and main contracts both declined slightly. The basis of both strengthened slightly, and the 1/5 spread fluctuated slightly [16]. (2) Polyolefin US Dollar Price and Import Profit - This week, the LLDPE US dollar price was stable with a slight decline. The RMB exchange rate depreciated slightly, and the domestic price dropped slightly. The low - price import window and export window were both closed. The domestic CFR price remained stable, and the discount of China to Southeast Asia narrowed to 45 US dollars. The PP US dollar price was also stable with a slight decline. The RMB exchange rate depreciated slightly, and the domestic spot price dropped slightly. The low - price import window was opened, and the export window was closed [27]. (3) Polyolefin Industry Profit and Spread - This week, the upstream crude oil price, petroleum price, and olefin monomers all declined slightly. The polyolefin price was stable with a slight decline. The decline of crude oil was greater than that of olefins, so the olefin production profit expanded slightly. The decline of coal was less than that of olefins, so the olefin production profit narrowed slightly. The increase of propylene was less than that of PP powder, so the powder loss narrowed, and the spread between PP draw and powder narrowed slightly. The PE downstream production profit expanded slightly, and the PP downstream BOPP profit recovered slightly but remained at a low level [36][47]. (4) Polyolefin Substitution - Related Spreads - This week, the LLDPE - HDPE spread narrowed slightly and was at a normal low level. The HDPE's support for LLDPE became stronger. The LLDPE - LDPE spread rebounded slightly and was at a low level. The copolymer - homopolymer spread expanded slightly and was at a normal level. The HD - PP spread narrowed slightly and was at a normal level. The PE new - material and PE recycled - material spread was at a normal level and narrowed slightly. The PP new - material and PP recycled - material spread was at a medium level and narrowed slightly [56]. (5) Supply - Demand and Industrial Chain Inventory - PE's supply - demand situation weakens in the second half of the year, and the pressure increases in the fourth quarter. PP's supply pressure rises in the second half of the year, and the supply - demand pressure increases in the third and fourth quarters. It is necessary to shut down high - cost plants to achieve re - balance. In 2025, the planned PE maintenance increases compared to 2024, with more maintenance in the second and third quarters. The PP maintenance in 2025 also increases compared to 2024, with more in the first half of the year and less in the second half. This week, the PE and PP industrial chain inventories decreased slightly and were at normal levels in previous years. The downstream gradually replenished their inventories [60][65][70]. (6) Downstream Operating Rate and Production Profit - This week, the average operating rate of PP powder was 35.58%, up 1.64% month - on - month and down 16.67% year - on - year. The domestic PE downstream operating rate rose slightly. The PP downstream enterprise operating rate also recovered steadily [88][93][98]. (7) Weekly Outlook - LLDPE: In the short - term, affected by the recurrence of Sino - US tariffs, it is in a weak and volatile state, and the supply - demand will gradually ease in the fourth quarter. It is recommended to short at high prices or conduct reverse spreads on monthly differentials. - PP: Similar to LLDPE, in the short - term, it is weak and volatile, and in the fourth quarter, with new plants put into operation, the supply - demand will ease, and it is recommended to short at high prices or conduct reverse spreads on monthly differentials [100][101].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - PTA: After the holiday, the negotiation atmosphere in the PTA spot market was average, and the spot basis weakened slightly. With some PTA device maintenance and production cuts, along with the delay of new device commissioning, the PTA supply - demand outlook improved. It is expected that the short - term spot price will still fluctuate mainly following the cost side. Attention should be paid to device changes and downstream production and sales [6]. - MEG: The price center of ethylene glycol adjusted at a low level on Monday, and the market negotiation was acceptable. The ethylene glycol market is expected to operate weakly in the short term, and attention should be paid to external factors and device changes. In October, the supply - demand pattern of ethylene glycol turned to inventory accumulation, with an overall inventory increase of around 50,000 tons, and there is continuous inventory accumulation pressure in the far - month, significantly pressuring market sentiment [8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Previous Day Review - PTA: Overnight crude oil tumbled last Friday but rebounded on Monday. PTA futures opened lower and fluctuated on the previous day, with a small decline in the end. The negotiation atmosphere in the spot market was average, and the spot basis weakened. There were rumors that the 3 - million - ton PTA device of Dushan Energy Phase 4 was planned to be put into operation in mid - October, and an old device would be temporarily shut down if the new one was commissioned [7]. - MEG: The price center of ethylene glycol adjusted at a low level on Monday. The spot price opened lower and then slightly recovered, and the spot basis weakened slightly in the afternoon. The overseas market center of ethylene glycol declined, and traders were the main participants in the trading [8]. 3.2 Daily Tips - PTA: The fundamentals were neutral; the basis was neutral; the inventory was bearish as the PTA factory inventory was 4.22 days, a 0.47 - day increase from the previous period; the disk was bearish as the 20 - day moving average was downward and the closing price was below it; the main position was bearish with a net short position and a reduction in short positions [7]. - MEG: The fundamentals were neutral; the basis was neutral; the inventory was bearish as the total inventory in East China was 445,100 tons, a 40,800 - ton increase from the previous period; the disk was bearish as the 20 - day moving average was downward and the closing price was below it; the main position was bearish with a net short position and a reduction in short positions [8]. 3.3 Today's Focus - Factors affecting PTA and MEG: - Bullish factors: Before the holiday, the polyester market had a booming sales under the combined positive effects of increased demand and rising oil prices. The inventory of POY and FDY in the pre - spinning of filament yarn quickly decreased to about half a month, and the price rebounded by 100 - 150 yuan. During the holiday, the polyester price remained stable. Some PTA device maintenance and production cuts, along with the delay of new device commissioning [9][10]. - Bearish factors: A 3.6 - million - ton PTA device in East China was gradually increasing its production to over 90%, after reducing production around October 7 [11]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - PTA Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: Provides PTA supply - demand data from January 2024 to December 2025, including production capacity, production, consumption, inventory, etc. [13]. - Ethylene Glycol Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: Provides ethylene glycol supply - demand data from January 2024 to December 2025, including production, import, consumption, port inventory, etc. [14]. - Price Data: Shows price changes of various products such as naphtha, PX, PTA, MEG, polyester filaments, and polyester staple fibers from October 10 to October 13, 2025, as well as basis and profit data [15].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the given content. 2. Report Core Views - **Methanol**: The trading logic is the pressure transmission from ports to the inland. The inland has seasonal stocking demand and new device stocking increment from Lianhong, but port backflow will impact the inland. Currently, the price is benchmarked against inland prices. Xingxing is expected to start operations in early September, but inventory is still accumulating. Backflow can relieve port pressure but will affect inland valuation. Valuation, inventory, and driving forces are average, so bottom - fishing should wait [2]. - **Polyethylene**: The inventory of the two major oil companies is neutral year - on - year. Upstream and coal - chemical industries are destocking, while social inventory remains flat. Downstream raw - material and finished - product inventories are also neutral. Overall inventory is neutral. The 09 basis is around - 110 in North China and - 50 in East China. Import profit is around - 200 with no further increase for now. Non - standard HD injection prices are stable, and other price differences are fluctuating. LD is weakening. September maintenance is flat month - on - month, and recent domestic linear production has decreased. Attention should be paid to LL - HD conversion and US quotes. New device pressure in 2025 is significant [5]. - **Polypropylene**: Upstream and mid - stream inventories of polypropylene are decreasing. The basis is - 60, non - standard price differences are neutral, and import profit is around - 700. Exports have been good this year. Non - standard price differences are neutral. PDH profit is around - 400, propylene is fluctuating, and powder production is stable.拉丝 production is neutral. Future supply is expected to increase slightly month - on - month. Downstream orders are average, and raw - material and finished - product inventories are neutral. Under the background of over - capacity, the 01 contract is expected to have a slightly excessive supply pressure. If exports continue to increase or PDH device maintenance is frequent, supply pressure can be alleviated to a neutral level [6]. - **PVC**: The basis remains at 01 - 270, and the factory - delivery basis is - 480. Downstream开工 is seasonally weakening, and the willingness to hold goods at low prices is strong. Mid - and upstream inventories are continuously accumulating. Summer northwest device seasonal maintenance has a load center between spring maintenance and Q1 high production. In Q4, attention should be paid to production capacity realization and export sustainability. Near - end export orders have slightly declined. Coal sentiment is positive, and the cost of semi - coke is stable. Calcium carbide profit is under pressure due to PVC maintenance. The export counter - offer for caustic soda is FOB380. PVC comprehensive profit is - 100. Current static inventory contradictions are accumulating slowly, costs are stable, downstream performance is average, and the macro - environment is neutral. Attention should be paid to exports, coal prices, commercial housing sales, terminal orders, and开工 [6]. 3. Summary by Commodity Methanol - **Price Data**: The daily changes of methanol include 0 for动力煤期货, 72 for江苏现货, 75 for华南现货, - 12 for鲁南折盘面, 0 for西南折盘面, 0 for河北折盘面, 0 for西北折盘面, 0 for CFR中国, 0 for CFR东南亚, 0 for进口利润, 45 for主力基差, and 0 for other aspects [2]. Polyethylene - **Price and Inventory Data**: From September 29 to October 13, 2025, Northeast Asia ethylene decreased from 815 to 785,华北LL decreased from 7100 to 6950,华东LL decreased from 7215 to 7150,华东LD remained at 9500 (except for a small increase on October 9),华东HD remained at 7350, LL美金 remained at 830 (except for a decrease to 820 on some days), LL美湾 decreased from 785 to 767,进口利润 remained at - 42,主力期货 decreased from 7181 to 6983,基差 remained at - 50 (except for - 40 on October 9),两油库存 increased from 56 to 86 and then remained at 85, and仓单 decreased from 12736 to 12729 [5]. Polypropylene - **Price and Inventory Data**: From September 29 to October 13, 2025,山东丙烯 decreased from 6370 to 6200,东北亚丙烯 remained at 750,华东PP decreased from 6735 to 6635,华北PP decreased from 6750 to 6620,山东粉料 decreased from 6700 to 6570,华东共聚 decreased from 7002 to 6916, PP美金 remained at 840 (except for a decrease to 835 on some days), PP美湾 remained at 925,出口利润 remained at - 33,主力期货 decreased from 6903 to 6693,基差 increased from - 160 to - 90,两油库存 increased from 56 to 86 and then remained at 85, and仓单 decreased from 14098 to 13970 [6]. PVC - **Price and Profit Data**: From September 29 to October 13, 2025,西北电石 decreased from 2550 to 2450,山东烧碱 increased from 807 to 850,电石法 - 华东 decreased from 4780 to 4640,乙烯法 - 华东 remained at 5500,电石法 - 华南 remained at 5450,电石法 - 西北 decreased from 4400 to 4370,进口美金价 (CFR中国) remained at 700,出口利润 remained at 362,西北综合利润 remained at 356,华北综合利润 remained at - 244, and基差 (高端交割品) remained at - 150 (except for - 120 on some days) [6].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Urea: ☆☆☆ (indicating a short - term relatively balanced state with poor operability on the current trading floor) [1] - Methanol: ★★★ (indicating a clearer long - position trend with relatively appropriate investment opportunities) [1] - Pure Benzene: ★★★ [1] - Styrene: ★★★ [1] - Polypropylene: ☆☆☆ [1] - Plastic: ☆☆☆ [1] - PVC: ☆☆☆ [1] - Caustic Soda: ☆☆☆ [1] - PX: ★★★ [1] - PTA: ★★★ [1] - Ethylene Glycol: ☆☆☆ [1] - Short Fiber: ★★★ [1] - Glass: ☆☆☆ [1] - Soda Ash: ☆☆☆ [1] - Bottle Chip: ☆☆☆ [1] - Propylene: ☆☆☆ [1] Core Viewpoints - The overall performance of the chemical industry is weak, with different products showing varying trends in supply, demand, and price [2][3][5] - Some products may have short - term price fluctuations due to factors such as changes in supply and demand, seasonal factors, and cost pressures [2][5][6] Summary by Category Olefins - Polyolefins - Olefin futures main contracts continued to decline. Propylene demand improved as prices dropped, but market supply showed an increasing trend [2] - Polyolefin futures main contracts had a narrow decline. Polyethylene demand increased as downstream factory operating rates rose, and supply decreased due to many domestic maintenance enterprises. Polypropylene supply may slightly shrink, but downstream procurement enthusiasm was restricted [2] Pure Benzene - Styrene - Pure benzene continued its weak trend, with a slight decline in weekly开工 and low - level fluctuations in processing margins. The domestic pure benzene market supply - demand may improve in the third quarter, but high import volume expectations suppressed market sentiment [3] - Styrene futures main contracts declined. Supply had unplanned reductions, but demand entered a dull period, and there may be low - price promotions by northern enterprises before the National Day [3] Polyester - PTA price was under pressure, and the PTA - PX spread continued to rebound. The short - term market was weak, but there was an expectation of downstream stocking before the festival [5] - Ethylene glycol returned to the bottom of the range. Domestic开工 increased slightly, and the market was expected to be weak, but the actual supply pressure was not large [5] - Short - fiber futures prices declined. Near - month short - fiber could be allocated more on the long side, and positive spreads could be bought at low prices [5] - Bottle chip operating rate slightly declined, with a slight reduction in inventory and a small repair in processing margins, but the long - term pressure of over - capacity limited the repair space [5] Coal Chemical Industry - Methanol main contracts showed a strong - side shock. Short - term supply - demand difference was expected to narrow, and long - term attention should be paid to the actual implementation of overseas gas restrictions [6] - Urea main contracts continued to decline. The domestic urea market remained in a state of loose supply - demand, with the market oscillating at a low level [6] Chlor - Alkali - PVC remained in a state of loose supply - demand, with large inventory pressure. It may have an oscillating and weak trend [7] - Caustic soda showed regional differentiation. The futures price may oscillate [7] Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash had inventory accumulation again. In the short - term, it was expected to fluctuate with the macro - sentiment, and the long - term supply surplus pattern remained unchanged [8] - Glass continued the pattern of high supply and weak demand. The futures price was expected to fluctuate with the macro - sentiment [8]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints Methanol - High imports are materializing, inventory accumulation has begun, and the futures price is undervalued. Wait for the off - season expectations to be fully priced in. The market is in a period of bearish factors being realized. With macro instability and weak methanol prices in Europe and the US, it's hard to determine the unilateral direction. Given the low valuation, it's advisable to consider going long when the price is low [1] Plastic (Polyethylene) - The inventory of Sinopec and PetroChina is at a neutral level year - on - year. Overall inventory is neutral. The 09 basis is around 0 in North China and +120 in East China. Import profit is around - 400 with no further increase for now. Non - standard HD injection prices are stable, other spreads are fluctuating, and LD is weakening. In June, maintenance decreased month - on - month, and domestic linear production increased month - on - month. Attention should be paid to LL - HD conversion and US quotes, as well as the commissioning of new plants in 2025 [8] PP - The upstream and mid - stream inventories of polypropylene are decreasing. The basis is +100, non - standard spreads are neutral, and the import profit is around - 500. Exports have been good this year. Non - standard spreads are neutral. PDH profit is around - 1000, propylene is fluctuating, and powder production is stable. The supply in June is expected to increase slightly month - on - month. Downstream orders are average currently, with neutral raw material and finished - product inventories. In the context of over - capacity, the 09 contract is under moderate to excessive pressure. If exports continue to grow or more PDH plants are shut down for maintenance, the supply pressure can be alleviated to a neutral level [8] PVC - The basis has strengthened to 09 - 150, and the factory - pickup basis is - 420. Downstream开工 is seasonal, and there is a strong willingness to hold goods at low prices. Mid - and upstream inventories are continuously decreasing. Summer seasonal maintenance of northwest plants is ongoing, with the load between the spring maintenance and Q1 high - production levels. In June, attention should be paid to the commissioning of new plants and the sustainability of exports. Near - term export orders are okay. In June, macro factors such as the Politburo meeting and the US interest - rate decision should be monitored. Coal prices are weak, and the cost of semi - coke is also weak. Calcium carbide may have difficulty expanding profits as PVC plants are under maintenance. The export counter - offer for caustic soda is FOB400. The current static inventory is at a high level but is decreasing. The downstream performance is mediocre, and the macro situation is neutral. Attention should be paid to exports, coal prices, commercial housing sales, terminal orders, and开工 [11] Summary by Product Methanol - From June 30 to July 4, the power coal futures price remained at 801. The Jiangsu spot price decreased from 2785 to 2455, a decrease of 330. The import profit decreased by 3, and the main contract basis decreased by 10. The MTO profit on the futures盘面 increased by 49 [1] Plastic (Polyethylene) - From June 30 to July 4, the Northeast Asian ethylene price remained at 850. The North China LL price remained at 7200, the East China LL price increased by 10, and the East China LD price increased by 25. The import profit remained unchanged, and the main contract futures price decreased by 2. The basis decreased by 10, and the warehouse receipts increased by 200 [8] PP - From June 30 to July 4, the Shandong propylene price decreased from 6600 to 6550, a decrease of 50. The East China PP price decreased by 5, and the North China PP price increased by 20. The export profit remained unchanged, the main contract futures price increased by 4, and the basis decreased by 20. The warehouse receipts decreased by 100 [8] PVC - From June 30 to July 4, the Northwest calcium carbide price decreased from 2450 to 2350, a decrease of 100. The import US dollar price (CFR China) decreased from 720 to 700. The export profit decreased from 602 to 465. The basis remained at - 80 [10][11]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Report Core Viewpoints - **Methanol**: High imports are materializing, inventory accumulation is starting, and the futures price is undervalued. It's in a phase of negative factor realization. With an unstable macro - environment and weak methanol prices in Europe and the US, the unilateral price direction is hard to determine. Due to the low valuation, a long - position strategy at low prices is preferable [1]. - **Plastic (Polyethylene)**: The overall inventory of polyethylene is neutral. The 09 basis is around 0 in North China and +120 in East China. Import profits are around - 400 with no further increase for now. Non - standard HD injection prices are stable, and LD is weakening. In June, maintenance decreases and domestic linear production increases. Attention should be paid to LL - HD conversion and US quotes, as well as new device commissioning [6]. - **PP (Polypropylene)**: Upstream and mid - stream inventories of polypropylene are decreasing. The basis is +100, non - standard price differentials are neutral, and import profits are around - 500. Exports are good this year. In June, supply is expected to increase slightly, and downstream orders are average. Under the background of over - capacity, the 09 contract is under moderate to excessive pressure, which can be relieved if exports increase or PDH device maintenance increases [6]. - **PVC**: The basis has strengthened. Downstream has a strong willingness to hold inventory at low prices. Mid - and upstream inventories are continuously decreasing. In June, attention should be paid to new device commissioning and export sustainability. The current static inventory is decreasing from a high level, and downstream performance is average. Attention should be paid to factors such as exports, coal prices, and terminal orders [10]. 3. Summaries by Commodity Methanol - **Price Data**: From May 30 to June 6, 2025, the Jiangsu spot price increased from 2265 to 2322, and the import profit remained at 320. The daily change on June 6 showed an increase of 5 in the Jiangsu spot price, while other indicators had little change [1]. - **Market Situation**: High imports are being realized, and inventory accumulation has begun. Iran has reduced its production, but there is an increase from non - Iranian sources and domestic supply [1]. Plastic (Polyethylene) - **Price Data**: From May 30 to June 6, 2025, the Northeast Asia ethylene price remained at 780, and the North China LL price increased from 7000 to 7070. The daily change on June 6 showed an increase of 20 in the North China LL price [6]. - **Inventory and Market Situation**: The overall inventory is neutral, with upstream and coal - chemical sectors reducing inventory. Import profits are around - 400, and non - standard HD injection prices are stable [6]. PP (Polypropylene) - **Price Data**: From May 30 to June 6, 2025, the Shandong propylene price decreased from 6380 to 6350, and the East China PP price increased from 6990 to 7060. The daily change on June 6 showed an increase of 40 in the East China PP price [6]. - **Inventory and Market Situation**: Upstream and mid - stream inventories are decreasing. The basis is +100, and non - standard price differentials are neutral. Exports are good this year, and supply is expected to increase slightly in June [6]. PVC - **Price Data**: From May 30 to June 6, 2025, the Northwest calcium carbide price remained at 2250 (since June 3), and the calcium carbide - based East China price increased from 4720 to 4760. The daily change on June 6 showed an increase of 50 in the calcium carbide - based East China price [10]. - **Inventory and Market Situation**: The basis has strengthened, and mid - and upstream inventories are continuously decreasing. Attention should be paid to new device commissioning and export sustainability in June [10].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views - **Methanol**: High imports are materializing, inventory accumulation has begun, and the futures price is undervalued. It is in a period of bearish factor realization. With unstable macro - environment and weak methanol prices in Europe and the US, the unilateral direction is hard to determine. Given the low valuation, a long - position strategy at low prices is preferred [1]. - **Plastic (Polyethylene)**: The inventory of major producers is neutral year - on - year. There is inventory accumulation during holidays in the upstream and coal - chemical sector. The overall inventory is neutral. The 05 basis is +300 in North and East China. Import profit is around - 400 with no further increase. The domestic linear production is increasing month - on - month. New device pressure is high in 2025, and the commissioning of new devices should be monitored [6]. - **PP (Polypropylene)**: There is inventory accumulation in the upstream and mid - stream. The basis is +10, and the non - standard price spread is neutral. Import profit is around - 500. With few known future maintenance plans, supply is expected to increase slightly. Downstream orders are average, and the finished - product inventory is moderately high. Under the background of over - capacity, the 05 contract is under pressure. Pressure relief requires an increase in exports or monthly maintenance of 2 million - ton PDH devices [6]. - **PVC**: The basis has strengthened. The mid - and upstream inventory is continuously decreasing. Summer seasonal maintenance of Northwest devices is ongoing. Attention should be paid to commissioning and export sustainability in June. The current static inventory is decreasing from a high level, and downstream performance is mediocre. Key factors to watch include exports, coal prices, commercial housing sales, terminal orders, and开工 [10]. 3. Summary by Commodity Methanol - **Price Data**: From May 22 to May 28, the power coal futures price remained at 801. The Jiangsu spot price decreased from 2315 to 2255, and the daily change on May 28 was 5. The import profit remained stable, and the daily change of the main - contract basis was - 15 [1]. Plastic (Polyethylene) - **Price Data**: From May 22 to May 28, the Northeast Asia ethylene price remained at 780. The North China LL price decreased from 7260 to 6980, with a daily change of - 45 on May 28. The import profit remained at - 224, and the main - contract futures price decreased to 6972, with a daily change of - 35 [6]. PP (Polypropylene) - **Price Data**: From May 22 to May 28, the Shandong propylene price decreased from 6530 to 6380, with a daily change of - 60 on May 28. The main - contract futures price decreased to 6893, with a daily change of - 3 [6]. PVC - **Price Data**: From May 22 to May 28, the Northwest calcium carbide price decreased from 2500 to 2400. The ethylene - based PVC price in East China remained at 5500, and the daily change of the calcium - carbide - based PVC price in East China was - 30 on May 28 [10].