Report Industry Investment Ratings - Urea: ☆☆☆ (indicating a short - term relatively balanced state with poor operability on the current trading floor) [1] - Methanol: ★★★ (indicating a clearer long - position trend with relatively appropriate investment opportunities) [1] - Pure Benzene: ★★★ [1] - Styrene: ★★★ [1] - Polypropylene: ☆☆☆ [1] - Plastic: ☆☆☆ [1] - PVC: ☆☆☆ [1] - Caustic Soda: ☆☆☆ [1] - PX: ★★★ [1] - PTA: ★★★ [1] - Ethylene Glycol: ☆☆☆ [1] - Short Fiber: ★★★ [1] - Glass: ☆☆☆ [1] - Soda Ash: ☆☆☆ [1] - Bottle Chip: ☆☆☆ [1] - Propylene: ☆☆☆ [1] Core Viewpoints - The overall performance of the chemical industry is weak, with different products showing varying trends in supply, demand, and price [2][3][5] - Some products may have short - term price fluctuations due to factors such as changes in supply and demand, seasonal factors, and cost pressures [2][5][6] Summary by Category Olefins - Polyolefins - Olefin futures main contracts continued to decline. Propylene demand improved as prices dropped, but market supply showed an increasing trend [2] - Polyolefin futures main contracts had a narrow decline. Polyethylene demand increased as downstream factory operating rates rose, and supply decreased due to many domestic maintenance enterprises. Polypropylene supply may slightly shrink, but downstream procurement enthusiasm was restricted [2] Pure Benzene - Styrene - Pure benzene continued its weak trend, with a slight decline in weekly开工 and low - level fluctuations in processing margins. The domestic pure benzene market supply - demand may improve in the third quarter, but high import volume expectations suppressed market sentiment [3] - Styrene futures main contracts declined. Supply had unplanned reductions, but demand entered a dull period, and there may be low - price promotions by northern enterprises before the National Day [3] Polyester - PTA price was under pressure, and the PTA - PX spread continued to rebound. The short - term market was weak, but there was an expectation of downstream stocking before the festival [5] - Ethylene glycol returned to the bottom of the range. Domestic开工 increased slightly, and the market was expected to be weak, but the actual supply pressure was not large [5] - Short - fiber futures prices declined. Near - month short - fiber could be allocated more on the long side, and positive spreads could be bought at low prices [5] - Bottle chip operating rate slightly declined, with a slight reduction in inventory and a small repair in processing margins, but the long - term pressure of over - capacity limited the repair space [5] Coal Chemical Industry - Methanol main contracts showed a strong - side shock. Short - term supply - demand difference was expected to narrow, and long - term attention should be paid to the actual implementation of overseas gas restrictions [6] - Urea main contracts continued to decline. The domestic urea market remained in a state of loose supply - demand, with the market oscillating at a low level [6] Chlor - Alkali - PVC remained in a state of loose supply - demand, with large inventory pressure. It may have an oscillating and weak trend [7] - Caustic soda showed regional differentiation. The futures price may oscillate [7] Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash had inventory accumulation again. In the short - term, it was expected to fluctuate with the macro - sentiment, and the long - term supply surplus pattern remained unchanged [8] - Glass continued the pattern of high supply and weak demand. The futures price was expected to fluctuate with the macro - sentiment [8]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints Methanol - High imports are materializing, inventory accumulation has begun, and the futures price is undervalued. Wait for the off - season expectations to be fully priced in. The market is in a period of bearish factors being realized. With macro instability and weak methanol prices in Europe and the US, it's hard to determine the unilateral direction. Given the low valuation, it's advisable to consider going long when the price is low [1] Plastic (Polyethylene) - The inventory of Sinopec and PetroChina is at a neutral level year - on - year. Overall inventory is neutral. The 09 basis is around 0 in North China and +120 in East China. Import profit is around - 400 with no further increase for now. Non - standard HD injection prices are stable, other spreads are fluctuating, and LD is weakening. In June, maintenance decreased month - on - month, and domestic linear production increased month - on - month. Attention should be paid to LL - HD conversion and US quotes, as well as the commissioning of new plants in 2025 [8] PP - The upstream and mid - stream inventories of polypropylene are decreasing. The basis is +100, non - standard spreads are neutral, and the import profit is around - 500. Exports have been good this year. Non - standard spreads are neutral. PDH profit is around - 1000, propylene is fluctuating, and powder production is stable. The supply in June is expected to increase slightly month - on - month. Downstream orders are average currently, with neutral raw material and finished - product inventories. In the context of over - capacity, the 09 contract is under moderate to excessive pressure. If exports continue to grow or more PDH plants are shut down for maintenance, the supply pressure can be alleviated to a neutral level [8] PVC - The basis has strengthened to 09 - 150, and the factory - pickup basis is - 420. Downstream开工 is seasonal, and there is a strong willingness to hold goods at low prices. Mid - and upstream inventories are continuously decreasing. Summer seasonal maintenance of northwest plants is ongoing, with the load between the spring maintenance and Q1 high - production levels. In June, attention should be paid to the commissioning of new plants and the sustainability of exports. Near - term export orders are okay. In June, macro factors such as the Politburo meeting and the US interest - rate decision should be monitored. Coal prices are weak, and the cost of semi - coke is also weak. Calcium carbide may have difficulty expanding profits as PVC plants are under maintenance. The export counter - offer for caustic soda is FOB400. The current static inventory is at a high level but is decreasing. The downstream performance is mediocre, and the macro situation is neutral. Attention should be paid to exports, coal prices, commercial housing sales, terminal orders, and开工 [11] Summary by Product Methanol - From June 30 to July 4, the power coal futures price remained at 801. The Jiangsu spot price decreased from 2785 to 2455, a decrease of 330. The import profit decreased by 3, and the main contract basis decreased by 10. The MTO profit on the futures盘面 increased by 49 [1] Plastic (Polyethylene) - From June 30 to July 4, the Northeast Asian ethylene price remained at 850. The North China LL price remained at 7200, the East China LL price increased by 10, and the East China LD price increased by 25. The import profit remained unchanged, and the main contract futures price decreased by 2. The basis decreased by 10, and the warehouse receipts increased by 200 [8] PP - From June 30 to July 4, the Shandong propylene price decreased from 6600 to 6550, a decrease of 50. The East China PP price decreased by 5, and the North China PP price increased by 20. The export profit remained unchanged, the main contract futures price increased by 4, and the basis decreased by 20. The warehouse receipts decreased by 100 [8] PVC - From June 30 to July 4, the Northwest calcium carbide price decreased from 2450 to 2350, a decrease of 100. The import US dollar price (CFR China) decreased from 720 to 700. The export profit decreased from 602 to 465. The basis remained at - 80 [10][11]

研究中心能化团队 2025/06/09 甲 醇 日期 动力煤期 货 江苏现货 华南现货 鲁南折盘 面 西南折盘面 河北折盘 面 西北折盘 面 CFR中国 CFR东南 亚 进口利润 主力基差 盘面MTO 利润 2025/05/3 0 801 2265 2283 2350 2510 2300 2495 256 320 32 35 -849 2025/06/0 3 801 2288 2290 2350 2520 2300 2463 260 320 35 60 -891 2025/06/0 4 801 2312 2308 2340 2500 2320 2475 261 320 51 45 -962 2025/06/0 5 801 2317 2300 2345 2500 2320 2493 262 320 38 42 -966 2025/06/0 6 801 2322 2313 2350 2500 2320 2493 262 320 36 40 -967 日度变化 0 5 13 5 0 0 0 0 0 -2 -2 -1 甲醇聚烯烃早报 观点 高进口开始兑现，累库开始发生，盘面低估值，等待淡季预期交易到位；伊朗降开工，非 ...

甲醇聚烯烃早报 塑 料 日期 东北亚乙 烯 华北LL 华东LL 华东LD 华东HD LL美金 LL美湾 进口利润 主力期货 基差 两油库存 仓单 2025/05/2 2 780 7260 7450 9075 7800 855 917 -84 7159 40 80 5312 2025/05/2 3 780 7150 7400 9000 7780 855 917 -109 7085 40 80 5259 2025/05/2 6 780 7100 7375 9000 7780 855 917 -139 7080 60 80 5259 2025/05/2 7 780 7025 7300 8950 7750 855 917 -224 7007 40 80 5259 2025/05/2 8 780 6980 7275 8950 7750 855 917 -224 6972 20 80 5259 日度变化 0 -45 -25 0 0 0 0 0 -35 -20 0 0 观点 聚乙烯，两油库存同比中性，上游过节累库，煤化工累库，下游库存原料中性，成品库存中性。整体库存中性，05基差华北+300， 华东+300，外盘欧美稳，东 ...