Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell stated that layoffs will not affect the Fed's key mission and that proper planning will be conducted during the layoffs [1] Group 1 - The Federal Reserve is committed to maintaining its core objectives despite potential workforce reductions [1] - Adequate planning will be a priority when implementing any layoffs within the organization [1]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve plans to reduce its workforce by approximately 10% over the next few years through natural attrition, as stated by Chairman Powell in a memo to employees [1] - The current total number of employees in the Federal Reserve system is 23,950, with a projected increase to 24,553 in 2024, indicating a 2.5% growth [1] - A 10% reduction would equate to about 2,500 employees, bringing the total workforce close to levels seen a decade ago [1] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve's decision to downsize comes amid broader government efforts to streamline operations and reduce federal workforce [3] - The initiative is seen as a proactive measure by Powell to prevent potential interference from the government efficiency department led by Musk [4] - Musk has criticized the Federal Reserve for its employee size and the high costs associated with renovating its headquarters, which have ballooned to approximately $2.5 billion due to rising material and labor costs [3] Group 3 - The plan includes offering voluntary deferred resignation options to certain employees, similar to a program implemented in 1997 [5] - Powell emphasized the importance of regularly reviewing staffing and resource allocation in response to changing priorities and external environments [5] - The Federal Reserve has also implemented a hiring freeze as part of its cost management strategy [4]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - The cost - side coal price of methanol is expected to be weak, with high - level domestic methanol operations expected. The port methanol inventory may increase. The methanol 09 contract is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [1]. - The Fed's potential staff cuts and new policy assumptions make the Fed's interest - rate cut issue more uncertain. Gold will be in high - level oscillations [1]. - For coking coal, supply remains high while demand is expected to be weak, and the upstream coal mines still face inventory - accumulation pressure. The short - term futures performance is expected to fluctuate weakly [3]. - The tariff reduction on iron ore brings unexpected positive news, and the ore price oscillates upward. The short - term price is expected to fluctuate [3]. - The supply - demand fundamentals of rebar strengthen this week. The export recovery expectation rises after China - US tariff negotiations. The rebar price is expected to have a wide - range fluctuation [4]. - For live pigs, the supply is strong while the demand is weak. The short - term price is mainly in a weak adjustment [4]. - The domestic palm oil spot basis is stable with a slight decline, and the short - term price oscillates [5]. - The domestic soda ash market operates stably, and the soda ash 09 contract is expected to oscillate in the short term [7]. - The increase in money - market interest rates is negative for the bond market. The bond market is expected to oscillate slightly bearishly in the medium term [7]. - The fundamentals are negative for silver, and it is expected to have a wide - range and slightly bearish oscillation in the medium term [8]. - The short - term pressure on crude oil is not large, and long - term attention should be paid to relevant negotiations and OPEC+ production increases [8]. - Rubber raw materials are strong while finished products are weak. A cautious short - selling strategy at high levels is recommended [9]. - Although the PTA market is boosted by the China - US talks, the long - term supply - demand contradiction is difficult to ease, and short - term participation is recommended [9]. Summaries by Product Methanol - Market price in Jiangsu Taicang is 2375 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton. Methanol operating rate is 88.47%, down 3.7% week - on - week. Downstream total capacity utilization is 71.01%, down 0.48% week - on - week. Port inventory is 48.39 tons, down 7.8 tons week - on - week. Production enterprise inventory is 33.58 tons, up 3.19 tons week - on - week. Order backlog is 27.36 tons, up 3.58 tons week - on - week [1]. Gold - The Fed plans to cut staff by 10% in the next few years, and Powell proposed new assumptions about the Fed's future policy framework, making the Fed's interest - rate cut issue more uncertain [1]. Coking Coal - Independent coking enterprises' capacity utilization is 75.70%, up 0.26%. Daily coke output is 67.15, up 0.23. Coke inventory is 94.31, down 0.13. Coking coal inventory is 884.93, down 31.69. Coking coal available days are 9.9 days, down 0.39 days [3]. Iron Ore - National 45 - port imported iron ore inventory is 14166.09 tons, down 72.62 tons week - on - week. Daily port clearance volume is 323.89 tons, up 8.68 tons. Number of ships at port is 83, up 4 [3]. Rebar - 247 steel mills' blast furnace operating rate is 84.15%, down 0.47 percentage points week - on - week and up 2.65 percentage points year - on - year. Daily hot - metal output is 244.77 tons, down 0.87 tons [4]. Live Pigs - As of May 16, the average slaughter weight is 124.12 kg, unchanged from last week. Weekly slaughter operating rate is 27.9%, down 0.62%. Profit from purchasing piglets for fattening is 56.69 yuan/head, up 24.99 yuan/head. Self - breeding and self - fattening profit is 122.23 yuan/head, up 8.73 yuan/head. Piglet price is 511.9 yuan/head, up 6.2 yuan/head [4]. Palm Oil - Weekly average trading volume is 626 tons, compared with 2071.5 tons in the previous week [5]. Soda Ash - National heavy - soda mainstream price is 1422.5 yuan/ton. Soda ash operating rate is 80.06%. Total inventory of soda ash manufacturers is 171.2 tons, up 0.63% week - on - week. Float - glass operating rate is 75.24%, down 0.22% week - on - week [5][7]. Treasury Bonds - Money - market interest rates mostly rise. The weighted average interest rate of inter - bank pledged repo has an increase: 1 - day term up 21.93 BP to 1.6313%, 7 - day term up 11.29 BP to 1.6374%, 14 - day term up 6.68 BP to 1.6363%, 1 - month term up 8.2 BP to 1.65% [7]. Silver - The US Treasury Secretary responded to Moody's downgrade of the US credit rating, and the market's expectation of US economic growth weakens [8]. Crude Oil - As of May 16, the number of US online drilling oil wells is 473, down 1 from the previous week and 24 from the same period last year [8]. Rubber - Thai raw material prices continue to rise slightly. Hainan's rubber tapping is affected by rainfall. Tire operating rate rises month - on - month but drops significantly year - on - year [9]. PTA - PXCFR is reported at 854 dollars/ton, PX - N is 202 dollars/ton. East China PTA is reported at 5030 yuan/ton. PTA average operating rate is 77.07%, down 1.41% from last week. Polyester average load is 74.63%, down 17.37% from last week. Weaving factory load is 72.2%, unchanged from last week [9].

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve plans to reduce its workforce by approximately 10% over the next few years, reflecting a commitment to responsible management of public resources and aiming to enhance operational efficiency [1][2][3]. Group 1: Layoff Plan - The layoff plan will affect the entire Federal Reserve system, including the Washington D.C. headquarters and the 12 regional banks [1][2]. - The current total number of employees is 23,950, and the reduction will bring the total down to nearly the levels seen a decade ago, with an estimated decrease of around 2,500 employees [2][3]. - The plan includes offering voluntary separation packages to eligible employees, similar to a program implemented in 1997 [2][3]. Group 2: Context and Motivation - The decision comes amid calls from the Trump administration for significant cuts to federal agency spending and a reduction in federal employees [4]. - The Federal Reserve, while independent and not reliant on congressional appropriations, has faced criticism regarding its staffing levels and renovation costs [5]. - The renovation of the Federal Reserve's headquarters has reportedly cost around $2.5 billion, attributed to rising material and labor costs amid inflation [6]. Group 3: Economic Outlook and Interest Rate Expectations - Atlanta Fed President Bostic anticipates a slowdown in the U.S. economy this year but does not foresee a recession, projecting only one interest rate cut for the year [1][7]. - The latest inflation data shows a year-over-year increase of 2.3% in April, slightly below expectations, which has not prompted a shift in the Fed's cautious stance [7][9]. - Bostic noted that uncertainties, including trade policy changes, are likely to limit significant economic decisions by businesses [7][9].

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve, under Chairman Powell, plans to reduce its workforce by approximately 10% over the next few years, a move seen as a proactive measure to prevent external interference from the Trump administration's efficiency department [1][5]. Group 1: Layoff Plan Details - The layoffs will primarily occur through natural attrition, with a hiring freeze already in place and reductions achieved via normal turnover and retirements [2][4]. - A voluntary early retirement option will be offered to eligible employees, similar to a program implemented in 1997 [3][4]. - The current total workforce of the Federal Reserve is 23,950, with a projected increase to 24,553 in 2024, indicating a 2.5% growth. A 10% reduction would decrease the workforce by nearly 2,500, bringing it down to levels close to a decade ago [4]. Group 2: Political Context and Implications - The timing of the layoff announcement coincides with the Trump administration's push for workforce reductions across federal agencies, despite the Federal Reserve's independence from congressional funding [5]. - Criticism from the government efficiency department regarding the Federal Reserve's staffing levels and renovation costs has prompted Powell to act preemptively [5]. - The renovation costs of the Federal Reserve's headquarters have escalated to approximately $2.5 billion, attributed to rising material and labor costs amid inflation [5].

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve plans to cut approximately 10% of its workforce over the next few years [1] Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's decision to reduce its workforce indicates a strategic shift in response to economic conditions [1] - The anticipated layoffs may impact the overall employment landscape within the financial sector [1] - This move could signal a tightening of monetary policy and a focus on operational efficiency [1]