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有色金属行业跟踪周报:美国通胀数据超预期回落为降息扫除障碍,工业金属录得普涨-20251027
Soochow Securities· 2025-10-27 02:31
Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the non-ferrous metals sector [1]. Core Views - The non-ferrous metals sector experienced a general price increase due to improved macroeconomic sentiment following better-than-expected U.S. inflation data, which has cleared the way for potential interest rate cuts [1][2][3]. - Industrial metals recorded broad gains, while precious metals faced a significant pullback despite a favorable medium-term outlook [1][4]. Summary by Sections Market Review - From October 20 to October 24, the non-ferrous metals sector rose by 1.13%, ranking in the middle among all primary industries. The energy metals sector increased by 4.32%, industrial metals by 2.98%, and precious metals fell by 10.74% [1][15]. Industrial Metals - **Copper**: As of October 24, LME copper closed at $10,947 per ton, up 3.21% week-on-week. Domestic copper prices also rose, supported by tight supply and increasing demand from sectors like electric vehicles [2][30]. - **Aluminum**: LME aluminum reached $2,857 per ton, a 2.81% increase. Supply disruptions in overseas production and improved macro sentiment contributed to this rise [3][35]. - **Zinc**: LME zinc prices increased to $3,020 per ton, up 2.62%. Zinc inventories also decreased, indicating a tightening supply [39]. - **Tin**: LME tin prices rose to $35,650 per ton, supported by ongoing supply constraints and a favorable market sentiment [45]. Precious Metals - **Gold**: As of October 24, COMEX gold closed at $4,126.90 per ounce, down 3.30%. Despite the short-term pullback, the medium-term outlook remains positive due to declining real interest rates and ongoing geopolitical tensions [4][48][49]. - **Silver**: COMEX silver prices also saw a decline, reflecting similar trends in the precious metals market [50]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The report highlights that while traditional demand for industrial metals is weaker than last year, sectors like new energy vehicles and grid investments are providing support [2][30]. - Supply-side constraints are evident across various metals, with significant reductions in inventories for copper, aluminum, and zinc, indicating a tightening market [28][39].