Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The report provides weekly views on various non - ferrous metals, analyzing their supply, demand, price trends, and investment opportunities, with different outlooks for each metal [1] Group 3: Summary by Metal Copper - **Supply**: Domestic supply is weak, with low tin ore processing fees and potential decline in copper exports from Peru to China in January. Overseas, Indonesia issued a 400,000 - ton copper concentrate export permit to Oman Mining. The mine may release some concentrate inventory in the short term [1] - **Demand**: Traditional consumption has limited price - setting demand under high - price pressure, but the spot - end adaptability has improved. The social inventory in China has increased to over 200,000 tons [1] - **Price and Trend**: Copper prices reaching new highs are supported by supply - demand fundamentals and high capital allocation interest. However, there is a risk of correction after reaching new highs due to concerns about high - price - suppressed consumption. Pay attention to the support of the 20 - day moving average [1] Aluminum and Alumina - **Supply**: Overseas bauxite trading is inactive. The operating capacity of domestic alumina is 9.0757 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 90,000 tons. The supply of alumina is in significant surplus [1] - **Demand**: The weekly average operating rate of domestic electrolytic aluminum downstream processing enterprises is 62.2%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.2% [1] - **Inventory and Price**: The social inventory of aluminum ingots increased by 100 tons to 627,000 tons, and that of aluminum rods decreased by 800 tons to 138,000 tons. The spot premium and discount in different regions have limited changes [1] - **Trend**: The market is mainly driven by macro factors, with a slightly stronger and volatile trend. There is a possibility of hitting the high point in November 2024, but be cautious about the upward space [1] Zinc - **Supply**: LME zinc inventory decreased to 35,300 tons. Domestic smelters have high smelting profits and are actively operating. The accident at the Australian Endeavor zinc - lead mine led to a significant decrease in domestic and overseas TC. Domestic zinc ingots are gradually being exported, and inventory may further decline [1] - **Demand**: The consumption in October was not strong. In November, demand has recovered slightly, but overall, there is an expectation of weakening consumption due to cold weather. The export data may be expected to improve [1] - **Trend**: The bottom support of Shanghai zinc is strong. Do not short - sell in the fourth quarter. The rebound high is in the range of 23,000 - 23,500 yuan/ton. Pay attention to cross - market reverse arbitrage opportunities [1] Lead - **Supply**: LME lead inventory decreased to 235,100 tons, and the proportion of cancelled warrants is as high as 67.5%. The domestic social inventory of lead decreased to 30,300 tons. The supply pressure is gradually increasing [1] - **Demand**: The demand for energy storage and data centers has exploded, and the orders for battery enterprises related to energy storage are stable. However, after the strong rise of Shanghai lead, the battery export prospects are not good [1] - **Trend**: The fundamentals are expected to weaken. Be vigilant about long - positions leaving at high prices. Track overseas inventory changes. The upward space of lead in the fourth quarter is restricted [1] Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Supply**: The inventory of pure nickel decreased by 700 tons to 48,800 tons, the inventory of nickel iron increased by 500 tons to 29,000 tons, and the inventory of stainless steel increased by 400 tons to 947,000 tons [1] - **Demand**: The stainless steel market confidence has been hit, and the downstream demand is weak [1] - **Trend**: The nickel market is in a weak operation, and the center of gravity tends to move down. Consider short - selling on rallies or right - side trading [1] Tin - **Supply**: Non - Chinese tin exports are affected by the rainy season and the closure of Dar es Salaam Port. The supply of domestic tin concentrate is substantially tight [1] - **Demand**: The demand in traditional fields is average. In October, there was some rigid - demand price - setting [1] - **Trend**: Tin prices are oscillating without a clear direction. Consider short - selling on rallies or right - side trading after a clear breakout [1] Lithium Carbonate - **Supply**: The total market inventory decreased by 3,000 tons to 127,000 tons. The inventory of smelters decreased by 1,600 tons to 32,000 tons, and the downstream inventory decreased by 2,000 tons to 53,000 tons [1] - **Demand**: The leading material factories are at full - production or over - production levels. The pure electric vehicle project is advancing, and the demand for energy - storage batteries is in short supply [1] - **Trend**: The futures price of lithium carbonate is strengthening, and the inventory is expected to increase. The market focuses on the sustainability of actual inventory reduction and policy increments. It is expected to be slightly stronger and volatile in the short term [1] Industrial Silicon - **Supply**: The supply side has a slowdown in the start - up rate in Xinjiang, and the start - up rates in Yunnan and Sichuan have decreased to below 54% due to the dry season. The production of polysilicon has decreased seasonally, and the overhauled organic silicon devices are gradually resuming production [1] - **Demand**: The demand for polysilicon has seasonal production reduction [1] - **Inventory**: The social inventory of industrial silicon is 558,000 tons, a weekly decrease of 1,000 tons [1] - **Trend**: The supply and demand are both weak. The disk is expected to remain firm, but the upward space is restricted by the uncertainty of polysilicon demand [1] Polysilicon - **Supply**: The output in October is expected to increase by 4,000 tons month - on - month. There are expectations of production reduction in the southwest dry season and a contraction in downstream wafer start - up [1] - **Demand**: The market is affected by policy expectations and fundamental realities. The demand is affected by the photovoltaic industry's performance improvement and policy expectations [1] - **Inventory**: The factory inventory has continued to increase to 261,000 tons, a weekly increase of 3,000 tons [1] - **Trend**: The market is in a game between policy expectations and fundamental realities. It is easy to rise and difficult to fall in the short - term sentiment, but be vigilant about the correction risk caused by policy non - implementation or insufficient spot follow - up [1]