1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report presents weekly views on various non - ferrous metals, including copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, stainless steel, tin, lithium carbonate, industrial silicon, and polysilicon. It analyzes the market conditions, supply - demand relationships, and price trends of each metal, and provides corresponding investment suggestions such as position - taking and trading strategies [1] 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs Copper - **Market sentiment**: Affected by the market volatility, interest rate cuts, and the trend of precious metals, copper prices reached a new high since the second half of last year, but there was profit - taking by early long - positions. The market is focusing on real - economy indicators such as September's European and American manufacturing data and August's US PCE [1] - **Domestic situation**: Spot prices are stable, and the market is in the pre - holiday stocking period. Inventories have a small outflow but still accumulate this month. Refined copper production decreased month - on - month, and scrap copper enterprises are reluctant to sell. The market is concerned about the supply supplement from imports [1] - **Overseas situation**: Freeport's Indonesian Grasberg mine has a small amount of production, and the second - stage expansion of Congo's Kakula copper mine is postponed, affecting the production forecast for next year [1] - **Trend**: There is some pre - holiday stocking support, but the pressure on consumption indicators should be continuously monitored. After the early long - positions stop losses, it is advisable to wait and see. The expected range of Shanghai copper is 79,000 - 80,600 yuan [1] Aluminum and Alumina - **Alumina**: The operating capacity increased by 400,000 tons to 9.795 million tons last week, reaching a new high. The market is in an oversupply state, and inventories are increasing. The price is weakly running, with support around 2,000 yuan [1] - **Aluminum**: The domestic operating capacity is stable at around 4 million tons. The downstream processing enterprise's operating rate decreased slightly. Aluminum exports showed a mixed performance. Aluminum ingot social inventories increased slightly, and aluminum rod inventories decreased. The spot discount narrowed, and the processing fee increased [1] - **Trend**: The downstream seasonal improvement is not obvious, and the apparent consumption is lower than expected. The price of Shanghai aluminum has fallen from a high level, with support at 20,500 yuan. It is necessary to pay attention to whether pre - holiday stocking can drive a positive feedback in inventory and spot [1] Zinc - **Market**: After the Fed's short - term interest rate cut, profit - taking led to a decline in zinc prices. The LME inventory is low, and the 0 - 3 - month premium has expanded. The domestic and foreign price trends are divergent, and the import ore ratio is not good [1] - **Supply**: Domestic smelters have maintenance plans in September, and zinc ingot supply is expected to decrease month - on - month. Social inventories have decreased, and the price has support at the 22,000 - yuan integer mark [1] - **Consumption**: The peak season is not prosperous, with weak orders in some industries. Although there is some low - level buying before the holiday, the demand growth expectation is insufficient [1] - **Trend**: Both domestic and foreign zinc ingots are destocking, and the decline space of the Shanghai - to - LME ratio is limited. There is a need for short - term profit - taking of cross - market arbitrage and short - selling funds. It is advisable to seize the opportunity of short - selling on the rebound of Shanghai zinc before the holiday [1] Lead - **Market**: The LME lead is under pressure, while the Shanghai lead has a phased improvement in fundamentals and rebounds with increased positions [1] - **Supply**: The overseas supply is tight, and the import loss has narrowed. The raw material supply at the mine end is tight, and some smelters may advance their winter shutdowns. The profit of secondary lead has recovered, but the overall operating rate is still low [1] - **Consumption**: Terminal consumption has recovered, and the downstream purchasing enthusiasm has improved before the holidays. The inventories of major lead - zinc smelters and secondary lead smelters have decreased [1] - **Trend**: The fundamentals of lead have improved, but the expected inflow of imported ingots may put pressure on the price rebound. Attention should be paid to the pressure at 17,300 yuan/ton [1] Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Market**: Shanghai nickel fluctuated at a low level, and Shanghai stainless steel rebounded slightly, but the trading activity was low [1] - **Macro and demand**: After the interest rate cut, long - positions tend to cash out. The downstream market is cautious, and high - price transactions are difficult. The cost increase momentum is insufficient, but the pre - holiday demand is emerging, and the cost support is obvious [1] - **Supply**: The premiums of various forms of nickel have different levels, and the inventories of nickel and stainless steel have changed. The inventory of pure nickel increased, the inventory of nickel goods decreased, and the inventory of stainless steel decreased [1] - **Trend**: The long - position themes of Shanghai nickel are exhausted, and the price is weakly running and is about to start a downward trend [1] Tin - **Market**: The prices of domestic and foreign tin encountered resistance and declined, and then found support at the MA400 moving average or lower levels. The LME squeeze is basically over [1] - **Supply**: There is a lack of new information. Domestic leading enterprises are under maintenance, and the supply of domestic and imported tin ore is tight. Indonesia's tin production target remains unchanged [1] - **Consumption**: After the price adjustment, there is some rigid - demand buying. The inventories in some statistics have decreased, but the domestic terminal production and exports are average [1] - **Trend**: After the reduction of the position - taking risk, the market focus turns to the domestic market. Tin prices are difficult to show a trend, and it is advisable to continue the "high - selling and low - buying" trading strategy [1] Lithium Carbonate - **Market**: The futures price of lithium carbonate rebounded with low - volume trading. The market speculation degree has decreased, and the difference between long and short positions has narrowed [1] - **Supply**: The total market inventory decreased by 1,000 tons to 137,500 tons, the smelter inventory decreased by 1,800 tons to 34,000 tons, and the downstream inventory increased by 1,200 tons to 59,600 tons [1] - **Demand**: Driven by the "Golden September and Silver October" in the traditional automobile sales season, the orders of material factories have increased significantly this month, and the overall industry demand is strong [1] - **Trend**: The low - level support is emerging, but after the industry's selling action is basically completed, combined with the anti - involution trend, the price is expected to be under pressure [1] Industrial Silicon - **Market**: The prices of industrial silicon and polysilicon diverged last week. The price of industrial silicon broke through the 900 - yuan/ton mark, mainly due to the cost support from coal production cuts in Xinjiang [1] - **Supply**: The production in September - October is expected to continue to increase, and the production reduction may be clear around the National Day. The production in the southwest is relatively stable [1] - **Demand**: The operating rate of polysilicon in September changed little, and the reduction expectation of leading enterprises in October has increased. The operating rate of organic silicon monomer factories is stable [1] - **Inventory**: The social inventory of industrial silicon increased by 4,000 tons to 543,000 tons [1] - **Trend**: The price of industrial silicon is affected by the rising coal cost and the expected elimination of backward furnace types. The supply - demand contradiction suppresses the price, and the upward space is limited [1] Polysilicon - **Market**: The futures price of polysilicon fluctuated in a range and showed a slight decline. The market sentiment cooled down. The energy - consumption limit standard is in the solicitation stage [1] - **Supply**: After the industry self - discipline meeting, the production of leading enterprises in October may decline, and the downstream silicon wafers are expected to reduce production synchronously [1] - **Inventory**: The inventory of polysilicon enterprises is unevenly distributed, and the total factory inventory decreased by 25,000 tons to 204,000 tons [1] - **Trend**: The capacity elimination of polysilicon is gradually advancing, and the spot price has a slight upward shift. The futures may face callback pressure, and attention should be paid to the support at 50,000 yuan/ton [1] Investment Recommendation - Hold long positions in the silver 2512 contract and raise the target price to 10,500 - 12,000, with a stop - loss at 9,100, due to the Fed's dovish stance and the appropriate gold - silver ratio [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The prices of non - ferrous metals are influenced by multiple factors such as supply - demand changes, policy expectations, and macro - economic indicators. Different metals show different trends and investment opportunities [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalog Copper - **Market sentiment and fundamentals**: Market sentiment was affected by actual economic data. Domestic refined copper output in August will remain at a record level, and the impact of maintenance in September and October may increase. The production of recycled copper is restricted, and the social inventory of SHFE copper has decreased. However, except for copper foil orders in power grids and integrated circuits, the market is mainly affected by seasonal factors [1]. - **Price trend**: There may be resistance when the price rises again. First, pay attention to the resistance at the upper level, with the focus in the range of 79,600 - 80,000 yuan. Notice the opportunity to buy put options at 82,000 yuan for the 2510 contract [1]. Aluminum and Alumina - **Alumina**: The price of alumina is in a high - level range historically, and the industry inventory continues to increase. The spot trading is weak, but the cost support limits the downward space. High - selling and low - buying are recommended in the range of 3000 - 3300 yuan [1]. - **Electrolytic aluminum**: The operating capacity of domestic electrolytic aluminum is stable at 4,000 tons, with a small amount of production resuming in Guizhou and Guangxi. The operating rate of downstream processing enterprises has increased, and the exports of aluminum products have changed. The social inventory of aluminum has decreased, and the processing fee has remained stable. The price of SHFE aluminum may be under pressure in the 20,500 - 21,000 yuan area [1]. Lead - **Price trend**: Last week, the price was mainly driven by the fundamentals of supply and demand. The market showed a resonance of spot and futures. It is recommended to wait for short - selling opportunities above 23,500 yuan/ton [1]. Zinc - **Market situation**: The inventory of zinc is at a high level, and the 0 - 3 month backwardation is large. The downstream demand is affected by factors such as transportation and consumption policies. The price is expected to fluctuate in the range of 16,600 - 17,300 yuan/ton [1]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Stainless steel**: The destocking of stainless steel has slowed down. New tariff regulations may impact exports. The inventory is at a certain level, and it is recommended to actively intervene in short - selling [1]. Tin - **Market situation**: The price of tin has shown a certain volatility. The supply of domestic tin mines is tight, and the consumption shows seasonal characteristics. The inventory has decreased, and the price center of gravity may rise. The price is expected to be in the range of 265,000 - 280,000 yuan, and the high - level area is above 275,000 yuan [1]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market situation**: The market sentiment is uncertain, and the fundamentals have limited guidance on the price. A long - biased thinking is recommended with good risk control [1]. Industrial Silicon - **Market situation**: The price is under pressure at the 9,000 yuan/ton level. The supply and demand both increase, and the inventory has decreased slightly. The market is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8,100 - 9,000 yuan/ton [1]. Polysilicon - **Market situation**: The policy has not met expectations, and the market will continue to fluctuate [1]. Recommended Strategies - Hold the high - short strategy for SHFE aluminum with a stop - loss at 21,000 yuan/ton [1]. - Buy put options for SHFE copper 2500 contract. Grasp the opportunity of put options [1]. - Allocate long positions for the silver 2512 contract, with a target price of 1050 and a stop - loss of 910% [1].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The copper market is under pressure and oscillating, with significant resistance in the upper trading range. The aluminum and alumina markets are maintaining a shock. The zinc market lacks effective resonance between fundamentals and macro - factors, with insufficient directionality. The lead market is waiting for the evolution of contradictions. The nickel and stainless - steel market shows different trends, with nickel in the middle - late stage of rebound and stainless - steel seeing inventory reduction and supply increase expectations. The tin market is supported by the MA60 moving average, and the lithium carbonate market has strong price trends. The industrial silicon and polysilicon markets have limited fundamental improvements [1]. Summary by Variety Copper - **Market Sentiment**: Sino - British tariff policies have a short - term impact. The market is still speculating on a September interest rate cut by the Fed. The UK inflation shows differentiation, and consumer confidence turns down [1]. - **Domestic Consumption**: High - price fluctuations of Shanghai copper affect downstream procurement. The current demand is mainly supported by the power grid. The output of recycled copper is affected by policies, and the market is not optimistic about copper consumption in mid - August [1]. - **Trend**: The upper trading resistance of the copper market is significant, and it is expected that Shanghai copper will trade between 78,000 - 79,600 yuan/ton [1]. Aluminum and Alumina - **Alumina**: Ore prices in Guinea are stable. The domestic smelting cost is 3,000 - 3,100 yuan. The operating capacity of alumina has reached a new high, and the inventory has increased. The spot index is declining, and the futures are weakly oscillating [1]. - **Supply**: The operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum is around 4.4 million tons with low elasticity [1]. - **Demand**: The overall operating rate of domestic aluminum - processing leading enterprises increased by 0.8% week - on - week to 90.5% [1]. - **Trend**: The aluminum market is maintaining a shock, and it is expected that Shanghai aluminum will oscillate between 20,300 - 21,000 yuan/ton [1]. Zinc - **Market and Supply**: The rebound momentum of LME zinc is still weak. The supply pressure is relatively high due to the continuous realization of domestic and foreign mine increments and the high - level by - product prices [1]. - **Demand and Capital**: Demand continues to show weak characteristics. The market tends to trade the Fed's September interest rate cut, and the macro - trading sentiment is repeated [1]. - **Trend**: There is a lack of effective resonance between fundamentals and macro - factors. There is room to short - sell mine profits on the disk, and it is advisable to wait for short - selling opportunities above 23,500 yuan/ton [1]. Lead - **Market and Supply**: Both domestic and foreign lead prices are under pressure at the 40 - day moving average. The LME lead inventory is at a high level, and the primary lead production is active. The secondary lead production capacity is seriously excessive [1]. - **Consumption**: Affected by multiple factors, the consumption in the peak season is insufficient. Pay attention to the improvement of battery orders from scattered customers [1]. - **Trend**: The disk capital congestion is low. There is a possibility of a short - term return of long positions. It is advisable to hold long positions near 16,600 yuan/ton [1]. Nickel and Stainless - Steel - **Market and Demand**: The stainless - steel market has seen improved transactions due to factors such as approaching the consumption peak season and low arrivals. However, the supply is expected to increase in August [1]. - **Spot and Supply**: The spot premiums of different types of nickel vary. The ferro - nickel inventory is basically flat, the pure nickel inventory has increased, and the stainless - steel inventory has decreased but remains at a high level [1]. - **Trend**: Nickel is in the middle - late stage of rebound, and it is advisable to actively short [1]. Tin - **Market**: The tin price continued to decline last week, with resistance at $34,000 for LME tin and Shanghai tin weighted in the range of 260,000 - 270,000 yuan [1]. - **Supply**: There is no new news about tin ore. Domestic smelters in Yunnan and Jiangxi are operating at low levels, and the market is observing the production plans of leading enterprises [1]. - **Consumption**: It is in the peak season in China, with "seeking re - melting" and replenishing inventory. The domestic social inventory has decreased, and the LME inventory is at a low level [1]. - **Trend**: Supported by the MA60 moving average, the tin price has a risk of rising in the long - term, and it is advisable to hold long positions [1]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market**: The futures market has high sentiment and large differences between long and short positions. The spot market has price increases, and the supply is affected by mine suspension [1]. - **Demand**: Downstream cathode material factories are preparing for the "Golden September and Silver October" traditional sales season, and the production has started to increase this month [1]. - **Trend**: The price trend is strong, and it is advisable to adopt a short - term long strategy with good risk control [1]. Industrial Silicon - **Price**: It is oscillating in the range of 8,500 - 9,000 yuan/ton, driven by lithium carbonate and polysilicon production [1]. - **Supply**: Xinjiang's large - scale factories have resumed production, while those in Yunnan and Sichuan maintain low operating rates [1]. - **Inventory**: The SIBN inventory has decreased by 2,000 tons to 565,000 tons [1]. - **Demand**: The polysilicon field has increased production, and the organic silicon market has new orders. There may be an increase in production during the "Golden September and Silver October" [1]. - **Trend**: The sentiment is strong in the short - term, but the fundamental improvement is limited. It is expected to oscillate in the range of 8,500 - 9,000 yuan/ton [1]. Polysilicon - **Price**: There is strong support below 50,000 yuan/ton, and resistance appears at 63,000 yuan/ton [1]. - **Supply**: The production in August may exceed 130,000 tons. The export - related goods are basically finished, and the production and prices of battery cells and components are under pressure [1]. - **Inventory**: The futures warehouse receipts have increased by 1,900 lots to 5,600 lots, and the factory inventory has increased by 3,000 tons to 242,000 tons [1]. - **Trend**: The high - inventory pattern of spot goods suppresses price increases. There are long - buying opportunities below 50,000 yuan/ton, and attention should be paid to the resistance at the previous high of 53,000 yuan/ton [1]. Recommended Strategies - Hold the previous short - selling strategy for Shanghai aluminum with a stop - loss at 21,000 yuan/ton [1]. - Buy put options with an exercise price of 17,000 yuan for the Shanghai aluminum 2509 contract at a low level. There are opportunities in put option end - of - cycle trading [1].

Core Viewpoint - China Hongqiao (01378) has seen a significant increase in stock price, reaching a historical high of 23.04 HKD, driven by strong mid-year profit expectations and favorable market conditions [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The company anticipates a net profit attributable to shareholders of approximately 12.36 billion HKD for the first half of the year, representing a year-on-year growth of around 35% [1] - The substantial profit increase is primarily attributed to the rise in aluminum prices compared to the previous year, alongside a decrease in the cost of thermal coal [1] Group 2: Business Operations - China Hongqiao is the second-largest producer of aluminum and alumina globally, with a fully integrated green aluminum industry chain [1] - The company has diversified upstream production capabilities in Guinea, Shandong, and Indonesia, and is in the process of relocating approximately 3 million tons of capacity to Yunnan, which is expected to increase the proportion of green electricity aluminum to 46% [1] Group 3: Market Outlook - The company has expanded its downstream operations into automotive lightweight materials and environmental recycling businesses, indicating a strong position in the industry [1] - CICC has initiated coverage on China Hongqiao with an "outperform" rating and a target price of 23.62 HKD, reflecting confidence in its industry standing and attractive dividend returns [1]

Core Viewpoint - CICC has initiated coverage on China Hongqiao with an "outperform" rating, setting a target price of HKD 23.62, which corresponds to a projected P/E ratio of approximately 8 times for 2026 [1] Financial Projections - Expected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 and 2026 are projected to be HKD 2.63 and HKD 2.70, respectively [1] - Anticipated dividends per share for 2025 and 2026 are estimated at HKD 1.45 and HKD 1.49, respectively [1] Company Overview - China Hongqiao is the second-largest producer of aluminum and alumina globally, with a fully integrated green aluminum supply chain [1] - The company’s operations encompass power generation, bauxite mining, alumina, primary aluminum, aluminum processing, and recycled aluminum production and sales [1] Production Capacity and Sustainability - The company has diverse upstream production capacity in Guinea, Shandong, and Indonesia, and is in the process of relocating approximately 3 million tons of capacity to Yunnan [1] - This relocation is expected to increase the proportion of green electricity aluminum to 46% [1] Market Position and Business Expansion - China Hongqiao has expanded its downstream business into lightweight materials for the automotive sector and environmental recycling [1] - The company is viewed positively for its industry position and attractive dividend returns [1]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Copper prices are expected to oscillate downward. Aluminum may experience pressure and oscillation. Zinc's market rebound is likely to be limited. Lead may face pressure. Nickel and stainless - steel are in a state of adjustment. Tin is in a state of high - level shock. Lithium carbonate is expected to fluctuate around 70,000 yuan. Industrial silicon will return to fundamental - led trading. Polysilicon will oscillate within a wide range [1]. Group 3: Summary by Product Copper - **Price and Market Sentiment**: US trade policies and economic data have affected market sentiment. The US stock market decline has led to a return of copper prices. The market expects an 8 - month interest rate cut in the US, increasing the sentiment of interest - rate cut trading [1]. - **Domestic Supply**: Shanghai copper has significantly reduced its positions. The social inventory has increased due to the arrival of domestic and imported copper, with general consumption and tight raw material quotes [1]. - **Overseas Supply**: LME copper inventory is at 13.95 million tons. A mine in Chile has suspended operations, and Japan's Mitsubishi may cut production due to tight TC [1]. - **Trend**: Copper prices may face resistance at the 60 - day moving average. LME copper may oscillate down to $3,500 [1]. Aluminum and Alumina - **Alumina**: The operating capacity of alumina remains at a historical high, with an increase in total inventory and an oversupply situation. The price of bauxite overseas is firm, limiting the downward space [1]. - **Supply**: The operating capacity of domestic electrolytic aluminum is around 4.4 million tons, with limited supply elasticity [1]. - **Demand**: The operating rate of domestic aluminum - processing leading enterprises has slightly decreased. Different aluminum products have different demand situations [1]. - **Inventory and Spot**: The social inventory of aluminum has increased, and the spot is at a discount. The weekly output of aluminum rods has increased for two consecutive weeks [1]. - **Trend**: Aluminum ingots may face pressure and oscillation. Pay attention to the support around 20,200 yuan. The demand for aluminum rods is not overly pessimistic [1]. Zinc - **Price and Market**: The zinc market has returned to the fundamental logic of increasing supply and weak demand. The main contract of Shanghai zinc has fallen by 2.47%, and LME zinc has fallen by 3.52% [1]. - **Spot and Supply**: LME zinc inventory has increased to 100,800 tons. The term structure of Shanghai zinc has flattened. The TC has risen in August, and domestic smelters have sufficient raw material inventory [1]. - **Consumption**: The terminal consumption has not improved fundamentally. The demand in August is weak, but there is a possibility of policy support during the "Golden September and Silver October" [1]. - **Trend**: The zinc market is mainly dominated by the fundamental situation of increasing supply and weak demand. Look for short - selling opportunities around 23,500 yuan/ton [1]. Lead - **Market and Price**: The domestic lead inventory has continued to rise, and the price has fallen. The US dollar index has rebounded, and LME lead has also declined [1]. - **Spot and Supply**: LME lead inventory has increased to 276,000 tons. Some domestic smelters have maintenance plans [1]. - **Consumption**: The consumption of some areas has improved, but the impact of rainfall and tariffs on demand needs further verification [1]. - **Trend**: Shanghai lead may oscillate between 16,600 - 17,300 yuan. Wait for inventory guidance [1]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Market and Price**: The speculation of "anti - involution" has ended, and the market has returned to fundamentals. The trading volume of Shanghai nickel has decreased, while that of stainless steel has increased [1]. - **Supply and Inventory**: The upstream price support has weakened. The inventory of nickel - iron and stainless steel has decreased, but the overall inventory level is still high [1]. - **Trend**: Shanghai nickel is in the latter part of the rebound. Actively intervene in short positions [1]. Tin - **Market and Price**: The domestic and overseas tin prices have declined. The market is in a state of shock [1]. - **Supply**: Indonesia's tin production and sales have decreased. The market is concerned about the maintenance time of domestic large - scale factories [1]. - **Consumption**: The domestic inventory has increased, and LME tin inventory has also increased [1]. - **Trend**: Pay attention to the support of the 60 - day moving average. Hold high - level short positions [1]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market and Price**: The price of lithium carbonate has fallen, and the panic in the market has increased. The trading volume has decreased [1]. - **Supply and Demand**: The power orders have decreased, and the downstream battery factories are preparing for the peak season. The inventory has been transferred, and the downstream has increased replenishment [1]. - **Trend**: The price of lithium carbonate futures may fluctuate around 70,000 yuan. Adopt a short - term low - buying strategy [1]. Industrial Silicon - **Market and Price**: The price of industrial silicon has adjusted by 15%, and the market has returned to fundamental - led trading [1]. - **Supply and Inventory**: The cost of the silicon - coal process has increased. The supply pressure still exists, and the social inventory has increased [1]. - **Demand**: The demand for industrial silicon has increased marginally. The production of an organic silicon factory has resumed [1]. - **Trend**: The market will be dominated by fundamentals, and the price will oscillate and adjust [1]. Polysilicon - **Market and Price**: The price of polysilicon has significantly adjusted. The market is more focused on cost accounting, and the expectation of capacity clearance has decreased [1]. - **Supply and Inventory**: The production of polysilicon is expected to increase to 120,000 tons in August. The factory inventory has decreased, and the downstream has replenished in advance [1]. - **Demand**: The price of silicon wafers is expected to rise, and the battery - sheet orders have improved [1]. - **Trend**: The PS2509 main contract may oscillate widely between 46,000 - 47,000 yuan/ton [1]. Group 4: Recommended Strategies - Hold short positions of silver futures from 288,000 - 270,000 yuan or enter new short positions at 270,000 yuan. The long - term fundamental trend suppresses high - level silver prices [1]. - Adopt a short - selling strategy for Shanghai aluminum with a stop - loss at 21,000 yuan/ton [1].