Core Viewpoint - The strategic importance of critical minerals such as rare earths, lithium, and cobalt has increased due to the rapid development of the global renewable energy and technology industries, with China implementing export controls on some strategic minerals while the U.S. seeks alternative supply chains [1][3]. Group 1: Global Supply Chain Restructuring - China dominates the critical minerals sector, holding approximately 80% of global rare earth processing capacity, leading to export restrictions to ensure domestic demand and environmental sustainability [3]. - The U.S. is pursuing a "supply chain diversification" strategy by investing in mineral projects in allied countries like Australia and Canada, reviving domestic rare earth mining and processing capabilities, and utilizing trade intermediaries to reduce reliance on China [3]. Group 2: Third-Country Transshipment "Gray Channels" - Following China's graphite export controls, U.S. imports of graphite from China decreased, while imports from countries like South Korea, Malaysia, and India surged, indicating a pattern of "transshipment trade" [5]. - Some Chinese minerals undergo simple processing or repackaging in third countries, altering their origin documentation before being exported to the U.S., such as graphite being refined in Malaysia to carry a "Made in Malaysia" label [5]. Group 3: Technical Evasion and Compliance Strategies - This transshipment trade is not entirely illegal, as international trade rules permit changes in origin after substantial processing, though the definition of "substantial processing" varies by country [7]. - Chinese companies are establishing processing plants overseas to export raw materials for further processing, complying with export controls while meeting international demand, effectively creating a new global mineral supply chain network [8]. Group 4: Industry Impact and Future Trends - The supply chain restructuring has significantly impacted the global mineral market, increasing mineral prices and leading to higher end costs due to additional intermediaries [10]. - This situation has stimulated advancements in mineral exploration and processing technologies, attracting more investment in rare earth projects in regions like Australia and Africa [10]. - As countries place greater emphasis on critical minerals, the ongoing supply chain competition is expected to continue, necessitating technological innovation for China to maintain its industry advantage and highlighting the importance of transparent and stable mineral supply chains globally [10].

Group 1 - The article discusses the ongoing trade tensions between the US and China, highlighting that the US has begun to fulfill some commitments by canceling tariffs on certain Chinese products, indicating a recognition of China's retaliatory capabilities [3][4]. - The US is shifting its strategy to isolate China by negotiating tariffs with other countries, such as Vietnam, where the US has agreed to not impose tariffs on Vietnamese goods while imposing a 20% tariff on goods exported from Vietnam, particularly targeting "transshipment trade" that involves Chinese products [3][4]. - If this layered tariff policy is adopted broadly, it could effectively exclude Chinese companies from the US market, forcing many businesses that invest in China to relocate to countries like Vietnam and India, leading to further hollowing out of China's industrial chain [4]. Group 2 - China has made it clear that it will not remain passive in the face of new US strategies, stating that any tariff negotiations that harm Chinese interests will be met with decisive countermeasures [6][9]. - The article emphasizes that if Vietnam's negotiations with the US negatively impact China, China could choose to restrict trade relations, as Vietnam's economic growth heavily relies on China's extensive supply chain [8][9]. - Vietnam is portrayed as having misjudged the situation by compromising with the US, believing it would enhance its own industrial development, but it may not receive the necessary support from China that is crucial for its economic sustainability [11].