Group 1 - The article discusses the ongoing trade tensions between the US and China, highlighting that the US has begun to fulfill some commitments by canceling tariffs on certain Chinese products, indicating a recognition of China's retaliatory capabilities [3][4]. - The US is shifting its strategy to isolate China by negotiating tariffs with other countries, such as Vietnam, where the US has agreed to not impose tariffs on Vietnamese goods while imposing a 20% tariff on goods exported from Vietnam, particularly targeting "transshipment trade" that involves Chinese products [3][4]. - If this layered tariff policy is adopted broadly, it could effectively exclude Chinese companies from the US market, forcing many businesses that invest in China to relocate to countries like Vietnam and India, leading to further hollowing out of China's industrial chain [4]. Group 2 - China has made it clear that it will not remain passive in the face of new US strategies, stating that any tariff negotiations that harm Chinese interests will be met with decisive countermeasures [6][9]. - The article emphasizes that if Vietnam's negotiations with the US negatively impact China, China could choose to restrict trade relations, as Vietnam's economic growth heavily relies on China's extensive supply chain [8][9]. - Vietnam is portrayed as having misjudged the situation by compromising with the US, believing it would enhance its own industrial development, but it may not receive the necessary support from China that is crucial for its economic sustainability [11].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - A - share major indices closed up, with small - and medium - cap stocks outperforming large - cap blue - chips. The market is facing uncertainties due to overseas trade issues and domestic economic conditions. The domestic manufacturing PMI in May rebounded slightly but remained below the boom - bust line. The index is oscillating near the gap before the market's sharp decline on April 3rd, facing significant upward pressure. The market is in a policy vacuum period, lacking a clear short - term main line and expected to maintain an oscillating trend. It is recommended to wait and see [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Disk - All main and secondary contracts of IF, IH, IC, and IM showed upward trends. For example, the IF main contract (2506) rose to 3842.4, up 15.6. The spreads between different contracts also changed, with most showing an upward trend. The differences between quarterly and current - month contracts mostly decreased. For instance, IF current - quarter minus current - month was - 73.0, unchanged [2]. 3.2 Futures Positions - The net positions of the top 20 in IF and IC decreased, while that of IH increased. The net position of IM decreased. For example, the IF top 20 net position was - 29,186.00, down 347.0 [2]. 3.3 Spot Prices - The spot prices of the Shanghai - Shenzhen 300, Shanghai Composite 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 all rose. The basis of the corresponding main contracts also changed, with most showing an upward trend. For example, the Shanghai - Shenzhen 300 rose to 3868.74, up 16.7, and the IF main contract basis was - 26.3, up 0.9 [2]. 3.4 Market Sentiment - A - share trading volume, margin trading balance, and north - bound trading volume all increased. The proportion of rising stocks increased, while the Shibor decreased. Option prices and implied volatilities also changed. For example, A - share trading volume reached 11,774.13 billion yuan, up 135.83 billion yuan [2]. 3.5 Wind Market Strength - Weakness Analysis - All A - shares, technical, and capital aspects showed upward trends. The manufacturing PMI in May was 49.5%, up 0.5 percentage points month - on - month; the non - manufacturing PMI was 50.3%, down 0.1 percentage points; the composite PMI was 50.4%, up 0.2 percentage points. New export and import order indices increased [2]. 3.6 Industry News - The US will raise the import steel tariff from 25% to 50% starting from June 4. The US Trade Representative's Office extended the exemption period for the 301 investigation on China until August 31 [2]. 3.7 Key Focus - Important economic data and events to watch include the US May ADP employment number on June 4 at 20:15, the Canadian central bank's interest rate decision on June 4 at 21:45, etc [3].

Group 1 - The core point of the news is the recent trade negotiations between China and the U.S., where both sides have reached a temporary agreement to reduce tariffs on each other's goods, with China lowering tariffs from 125% to 10% and the U.S. reducing tariffs to 30% [1][2] - The Chinese government has implemented countermeasures against the U.S. tariffs, which include both tariff and non-tariff measures, to protect its legitimate rights and interests [1][2] - The U.S. Treasury Secretary has warned other countries to engage in negotiations with China, indicating that failure to do so may result in the reinstatement of higher tariffs after the 90-day pause [4] Group 2 - Analysts predict a surge in imports from China within the next 90 days, with the term "rush" being highlighted as a key trend [2] - The U.S. credit rating has been downgraded by Moody's from Aaa to Aa1, reflecting concerns over the country's rising debt and fiscal management issues [6][8] - To regain its Aaa rating, the U.S. must establish a workable long-term budget plan, balancing welfare and defense spending, which appears challenging under the current administration's policies [8]

Group 1 - The short-term macroeconomic positive effects are weakening, and terminal demand is facing downward pressure, leading to an increasing contradiction between supply and demand for rebar if steel mills maintain current supply levels, making it difficult for profits to sustain [1][5] - Recent macroeconomic developments include significant progress in US-China trade talks, with both sides agreeing to substantially reduce bilateral tariffs, and a reduction in the one-year and five-year Loan Prime Rates (LPR) by the central bank [1][2] - The apparent consumption of rebar was 2.6029 million tons last week, showing a week-on-week increase of 463,900 tons, indicating some resilience in demand, but the overall downward trend remains unchanged [2] Group 2 - Steel mills have maintained high production levels, with rebar production at 2.2653 million tons last week, an increase of 30,000 tons week-on-week, despite expectations of administrative production restrictions [3] - The average daily pig iron production is at 2.4477 million tons, which is high for this time of year, but the oversupply of coking coal continues, leading to a weak pricing environment for both coking coal and coke [4] - The total inventory of rebar was 6.1987 million tons last week, a decrease of 337,600 tons week-on-week, but if demand weakens further, the supply-demand contradiction may gradually increase [3][4]

Group 1 - The claim that the U.S. retains 30% tariffs on China while China only maintains 10% tariffs is incorrect, as both sides have implemented targeted retaliatory tariffs [1][2] - Prior to April 2, the aggressive tariff increases from both sides achieved a dynamic balance, contradicting the narrative that the U.S. imposed 145% tariffs while China imposed 125% [5][6] - The U.S. tariffs primarily targeted key Chinese exports, including energy and agricultural products, while China's retaliatory measures were more selective [2][5] Group 2 - The Chinese government has refrained from engaging in disputes over the perceived imbalance in tariffs, possibly to facilitate concessions from the U.S. [6] - It is important for the Chinese public to understand the actual dynamics of the trade situation and not be swayed by narratives suggesting that the U.S. has emerged victorious [6]

Group 1: Soybean Oil - Spot market: The price of Grade 1 soybean oil at Rizhao Cargill is 8,060 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [1] - International soybeans: It's currently the U.S. soybean sowing season and the South American soybean harvesting and exporting season, with Brazil's soybean harvest almost completed. South American new - crop soybean is likely to have a bumper harvest [1] - Domestic industry: The medium - term destocking cycle of soybean oil may be ending. After the arrival of South American imported soybeans and customs clearance, the soybean oil inventory may rebound from a low level [1] - Reference view: The short - term trading of the soybean oil 2509 contract may fluctuate within a range [1] Group 2: Soybean Meal - Spot information: The spot prices of 43 soybean meal in different regions are: Zhangjiagang 3,100 yuan/ton (- 220), Tianjin 3,180 yuan/ton (- 120), Rizhao 3,090 yuan/ton (- 440), Dongguan 3,220 yuan/ton (- 160) [2] - Market analysis: The Sino - U.S. trade tariff issue remains unresolved, affecting Sino - U.S. soybean trade. The market focus has shifted to the North American sowing season, and Brazilian soybeans are about to enter the export peak. Currently, the spot supply of soybean meal is tight, but it will gradually ease as the concentrated arrival of imported soybeans restores oil mill operations. Post - holiday downstream restocking may boost short - term trading volume [2] - Reference view: Soybean meal may run weakly in the short term [2] Group 3: Corn - Spot information: The mainstream purchase prices of new corn are: 2,184 yuan/ton in key deep - processing enterprises in Northeast China and Inner Mongolia; 2,404 yuan/ton in key enterprises in North China and Huanghuai; 2,260 - 2,270 yuan/ton at Jinzhou Port (15% moisture/680 - 720 bulk density); 2,250 - 2,270 yuan/ton at Bayuquan Port (680 - 730 bulk density/15% moisture) [3] - Market analysis: The Sino - U.S. tariff dispute has limited impact on the corn market due to China's decreasing import dependence and import substitution from Brazil. Domestically, the supply is gradually tightening due to factors such as the end of the harvest season, a sharp decrease in imports in the first quarter, and the price increase of new wheat. Downstream demand is weak, with cautious purchasing and low consumption [3] - Reference view: The domestic corn market is in the gap between old and new grains, and the corn price is likely to rise. Short - term trading should focus on long positions [3] Group 4: Copper - Spot information: The price of Shanghai 1 electrolytic copper is 78,030 - 78,350 yuan, up 240 yuan, with a premium of 250 - 320 yuan. The imported copper ore index is - 42.61, down 0.09 [4] - Market analysis: The global market is still affected by "irrational" tariffs, with high volatility in overseas capital markets. The Fed's uncertain actions add to the long - term uncertainty. Domestically, policies are boosting market sentiment. The raw material supply problem persists, and the rapid decline in domestic copper inventory intensifies the game between reality and expectations [5] - Reference view: The monthly K - line of copper price shows a balance between yin and yang. Attention should be paid to the suppression effect of the moving average system [5] Group 5: Lithium Carbonate - Spot information: The market price of battery - grade lithium carbonate (99.5%) is 66,850 yuan/ton (- 1,050 yuan/ton), and that of industrial - grade lithium carbonate (99.2%) is 65,150 yuan/ton (- 1,050 yuan/ton). The price difference between the two remains unchanged at 1,700 yuan/ton [6] - Market analysis: The cost pressure is increasing, with lithium ore prices dropping rapidly and reducing smelting enterprises' profit margins. Supply is increasing, especially from the mica end, and the production capacity of salt - lake lithium extraction will further expand with rising temperatures. Demand has improved but is still insufficient to drive prices up [6] - Inventory: Weekly inventory has been accumulating. As of April 24, the weekly inventory is 131,864 (+ 259) physical tons. The monthly inventory in March is 90,070 physical tons, a year - on - year increase of 47% and a month - on - month increase of 17% [7] - Reference view: The lithium carbonate 2507 contract may fluctuate weakly. Short - selling on rallies is recommended [7] Group 6: Steel - Spot information: The price of Shanghai rebar is 3,160 yuan, the Tangshan operation rate is 83.56%, the social inventory is 5.3276 million tons, and the rebar mill inventory is 2.004 million tons [8] - Market analysis: The fundamentals of steel are gradually improving, with the contango structure weakening and the current valuation being moderately low. Policy supports the real estate industry. The apparent demand for steel has decreased year - on - year, raw material prices have fluctuated weakly this week, and the cost center of steel is dynamically changing. Both social and mill inventories are decreasing, and the overall inventory level is low. Short - term macro - policy expectations dominate the market, and the market shows a pattern of strong supply and demand [8] - Reference view: After the macro - negative factors are digested, a long - position strategy at low prices for far - month contracts after May is recommended [8] Group 7: Coking Coal and Coke - Spot information: The price of coking coal (clean coal, Meng 5) is 1,205 yuan/ton; the price of metallurgical coke (Grade 1) at Rizhao Port is 1,340 yuan/ton; the port inventory of imported coking coal is 3.3738 million tons; the port inventory of coke is 2.461 million tons [9] - Market analysis: Supply is relatively loose, with domestic production capacity recovering steadily and the coking plant utilization rate stable. Mongolian coal imports remain at a high level. Demand is weak, with steel mills reducing production and iron - water output expected to decline. Independent coking enterprises maintain low raw - material inventories, and the overall inventory is slightly increasing. The average profit per ton of coke is stable and approaching the break - even point [9] - Reference view: Due to the loose supply, coking coal and coke may have a weak rebound with limited upside potential [9] Group 8: Iron Ore - Spot information: The Platts iron ore index is 98.15, the price of Qingdao PB (61.5%) powder is 765 yuan, and the price of Australian iron ore powder (62% Fe) is 760 yuan [10] - Market analysis: The iron ore market has both positive and negative factors. Supply has decreased slightly, with Australian shipments falling and Brazilian shipments rising. Port inventory has decreased by 1.1239 million tons. Demand has increased, with domestic steel mills' iron - water output rising, but steel mills' raw - material procurement remains cautious. Overseas demand is differentiated, and the U.S. tariff policy has increased price volatility [10] - Reference view: The short - term trading of the iron ore 2505 contract may be weak and fluctuate. Traders are advised to be cautious [10] Group 9: Crude Oil - Market analysis: OPEC+ will increase production by 411,000 barrels per day in June, and the market expects an oversupply. The price of WTI crude oil may decline, but it has technical support at 55 dollars/barrel. The U.S. trade war and the delay of the Russia - Ukraine peace talks have increased uncertainty, and the second - quarter demand may be severely affected [11] - Reference view: Pay attention to the follow - up trend of the domestic market as WTI has support at 55 dollars/barrel [11] Group 10: Rubber - Market analysis: The impact of the U.S. "reciprocal tariff" on rubber prices has been mostly priced in, and the market is now driven by fundamentals. The supply is relatively loose, with domestic and Southeast Asian rubber plantations starting to harvest. The U.S. automobile tariff may suppress global rubber demand. Attention should be paid to domestic rubber imports and inventory changes [11] - Reference view: Pay attention to the downstream operation rate of Shanghai rubber. The main contract may rebound near the support level of 14,000 yuan/ton [11] Group 11: PVC - Spot information: The mainstream price of East China Type 5 PVC is 4,700 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton from the previous period; the mainstream price of ethylene - based PVC is 5,050 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price difference between the two is 350 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton [12] - Market analysis: The PVC production enterprise operation rate increased by 0.70% week - on - week to 79.33% last week. Domestic downstream demand has not improved significantly, with mainly rigid - demand transactions. As of April 30, the PVC social inventory decreased by 4.94% week - on - week to 653,700 tons [12] - Reference view: Due to the weak demand, the futures price may fluctuate at a low level [12] Group 12: Soda Ash - Spot information: The national mainstream price of heavy soda ash is 1,414.69 yuan/ton, unchanged. The mainstream prices in East China, North China, and Central China are also unchanged [13] - Market analysis: Before the holiday, the overall operation rate of soda ash was 89.44%, down 0.06% week - on - week, and the production was 755,100 tons, down 0.05 million tons. The inventory of manufacturers decreased by 20,300 tons to 1.691 million tons, and the social inventory also decreased. Demand is average, with downstream enterprises only replenishing inventory for low - price goods [13] - Reference view: After the holiday, the futures market may fluctuate widely in the short term [13]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - The report provides short - term investment strategies and market outlooks for multiple commodities including metals, energy, agricultural products, and financial products [1][2][4][5][6][8][9][10][11][12][13][14] - For most commodities, the market is influenced by factors such as supply - demand relationships, macro - economic policies, and international trade situations Summaries by Commodity Metals - **Steel (Rebar)**: The fundamentals show high production and demand, with good inventory reduction. However, due to potential high tariffs and seasonal factors, the demand may weaken. It is recommended to short - sell rebar at high prices [1] - **Gold**: Although short - term factors are bearish, the long - term trade war situation provides some support. A mid - term high - level oscillatory and slightly bullish approach is appropriate [2] - **Iron Ore**: The inventory has increased, and the short - term trend is mainly influenced by macro factors and policy expectations. It is expected to oscillate in the short term [5] - **Silver**: The trend is determined by the US economic situation. With a bearish fundamental outlook, a mid - term wide - range oscillatory approach is advisable [8] Energy - **Crude Oil**: OPEC+ plans to increase production, but the actual increase is weakened. There is a risk of further price decline in the medium - to - long - term due to potential supply surplus [12] - **Methanol**: With stable coal prices and good profits, the supply is expected to increase while the demand decreases. The 09 contract is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [9] Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: Production is increasing, and the price is following competitive oils. With increasing imports, it is recommended to short - sell at high prices [6] - **Soybean**: Domestic prices are high, and due to limited supply and by - product support, it is advisable to buy at low prices [6] - **Pig**: After the holiday, the supply is increasing while the demand is weakening. Pig prices are expected to decline slightly, and farmers are advised to hedge by selling [5] - **Rubber**: With increasing raw material supply and weak demand, the price is expected to oscillate weakly [13] - **PTA**: PX and PTA are in concentrated maintenance, but downstream demand is weakening. It is advisable to short - sell PTA at high prices [14] Others - **Coking Coal**: The supply - demand situation is expected to remain loose. It is recommended to short - sell at high prices and maintain a long - hot - rolled - coil and short - coking - coal strategy [4] - **Treasury Bonds**: Fiscal policy is strengthening, and bond supply is increasing. A mid - term wide - range oscillatory approach is appropriate [8] - **Soda Ash**: The price is stable, and the supply is expected to decrease while the demand is average. The 09 contract is expected to oscillate in the short term [10] - **Caustic Soda**: The device is operating at a high level, and the inventory is decreasing. The 09 contract is expected to oscillate in the short term [11]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For corn, adopt a bullish strategy. This week, corn futures closed higher with the 2507 contract at 2377 yuan/ton, up 41 yuan/ton from last week. The Sino-US tariff dispute and domestic factors like reduced supply and wheat concerns are positive for corn prices. New - crop planting area is expected to be stable [10]. - For corn starch, also take a bullish strategy. This week, Dalian corn starch futures rebounded with the 2507 contract at 2748 yuan/ton, up 39 yuan/ton from last week. Although supply pressure has decreased due to low开机率, demand is weak, and inventory remains high [14]. 3. Summary According to the Catalog 3.1. Weekly Key Points Summary - **Corn** - **Strategy**: Adopt a bullish strategy [9] - **Market Review**: This week, corn futures closed higher. The closing price of the 2507 contract was 2377 yuan/ton, up 41 yuan/ton from last week [10] - **Market Outlook**: The Sino - US tariff dispute benefits domestic corn prices. In the Northeast, less grain is available, and traders are holding prices. In North China and the Huang - Huai region, there is little remaining grain, and the wheat drought boosts corn prices. New - crop planting area is expected to be stable [10] - **Corn Starch** - **Strategy**: Adopt a bullish strategy [13] - **Market Review**: Dalian corn starch futures rebounded. The closing price of the 2507 contract was 2748 yuan/ton, up 39 yuan/ton from last week [14] - **Market Outlook**: Supply pressure has decreased due to low开机率, but demand is weak, and inventory remains high. As of April 23, the inventory was 138.7 tons, up 0.40 tons from last week [14] 3.2. Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Price and Position Changes** - Corn futures' July contract rebounded with a total position of 1490492 hands, up 112988 hands from last week. Corn starch futures' July contract also rebounded with a total position of 227589 hands, up 3156 hands from last week [20] - **Top 20 Net Position Changes** - The top 20 net position of corn futures was - 206482, an increase in net short positions compared to last week. The top 20 net position of starch futures was - 10338, a decrease in net short positions compared to last week [29] - **Futures Warehouse Receipts** - The registered warehouse receipts of yellow corn were 168663, and that of corn starch were 8450 [35] - **Spot Price and Basis** - As of April 29, 2025, the average spot price of corn was 2305.29 yuan/ton, and the basis between the active July contract and the spot price was - 70 yuan/ton. Corn starch prices in Jilin and Shandong were relatively stable, and the basis between the July contract and Jilin's spot price was - 48 yuan/ton [40][44] - **Futures Inter - monthly Spread** - The 7 - 9 spread of corn was - 15 yuan/ton, and that of starch was - 68 yuan/ton, both at medium levels in the same period [50] - **Futures Spread between Starch and Corn** - The spread between the July contracts of starch and corn was 371 yuan/ton. In the 17th week of 2025, the spread between Shandong's corn and corn starch was 450 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton from last week [59] - **Substitute Spread** - As of April 29, 2025, the wheat - corn spread was 149.32 yuan/ton. In the 17th week of 2025, the average spread between tapioca starch and corn starch was 266 yuan/ton, narrowing by 3 yuan/ton from last week [63] 3.3. Industrial Chain Situation - **Corn - Supply Side** - **Port Inventory**: As of April 18, 2025, the domestic and foreign trade inventories in Guangdong Port decreased, and the inventory in the four northern ports also decreased, with a decrease in the shipping volume [54] - **Grain Sales Progress**: As of April 24, the grain sales progress of 13 provinces was 95%, 5% faster than last year, and that of 7 major producing provinces was 94%, also 5% faster than last year [67] - **Monthly Imports**: In March 2025, the import of ordinary corn was 8.00 tons, a 95.32% decrease from the same period last year and the same as last month [71] - **Feed Enterprise Inventory**: As of April 24, the average inventory of feed enterprises was 35.74 days, up 0.20 days from last week [75] - **Corn - Demand Side** - **Livestock Inventory**: As of the end of the first quarter of 2025, the pig inventory was 41731 million, a 2.2% year - on - year increase, and the breeding sow inventory was 4039 million, a decrease of 27 million from last month [79] - **Breeding Profit**: As of April 25, 2025, the self - breeding and self - raising pig profit was 100.16 yuan/head, and the profit of purchasing piglets was 53.62 yuan/head [83] - **Processing Profit**: As of April 29, 2025, the corn starch processing profit in Jilin was - 91 yuan/ton, and the corn alcohol processing profit in Henan, Jilin, and Heilongjiang was negative [88] - **Corn Starch - Supply Side** - **Enterprise Inventory**: As of April 30, 2025, the corn inventory of 96 major corn processing enterprises in 12 regions decreased by 6.66% [92] - **Starch Enterprise Startup Rate and Inventory**: From April 17 - 23, 2025, the corn processing volume and starch production increased, and the startup rate was 58.37%, up 4.43% from last week. As of April 23, the starch inventory was 138.7 tons, up 0.40 tons from last week [96] 3.4. Option Market Analysis - As of April 30, the implied volatility of the corn 2507 contract rebounded to 12.47%, up 2.64% from last week, and was at a relatively high level compared to the 20 - day, 40 - day, and 60 - day historical volatilities [99] 3.5. Representative Enterprise - The report mentions the price - earnings ratio change of Beidahuang, but no detailed analysis is provided [101]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content found. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The macro - level shows that Trump signaled tariff adjustment, the Sino - US tariff dispute may ease, and the Fed may cut interest rates in June after getting more economic data. The market risk preference has cooled [5]. - Fundamentally, although Indonesia lowered the nickel ore domestic trade benchmark price in April (Phase II), the FOB price of Indonesian laterite nickel ore is still strong, and the price of Philippine nickel ore has risen significantly. Domestic nickel ore port inventories are at a low level. The inventory of 300 - series stainless steel shows signs of destocking but is still at a high level, suppressing the continuous decline of ferronickel prices. The nickel sulfate market is mediocre. After the nickel price stabilizes, the domestic - foreign price difference is corrected, and the export window re - opens, supporting high domestic production. Market transactions are dull, waiting for the implementation of Indonesian policies [5]. - In the later stage, there are disturbance risks in both policy and resource aspects. It is advisable to be cautious and wait and see in the short term. The new Indonesian tax regulations come into effect on Saturday, and the negotiated tax rate may differ from expectations. In the industry, as the auto sales enter the off - season, there is no incremental expectation in the power market, and the high stainless - steel inventory will continue to pressure the ferronickel price. Supply remains high with no recent disturbances, and there is no current supply - demand contradiction. However, with overseas nickel ore shortages, domestic nickel ore port inventories are at an absolute low, and the overseas shortage may gradually affect the domestic market. While being vigilant about policy disturbances, pay attention to the risks at the mine end [5][13]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Last Week's Market Important Data - SHFE nickel price on April 25, 2025, was 125,800 yuan/ton, up 1,660 yuan/ton from April 16 [6]. - LME nickel price on April 25, 2025, was 15,545 dollars/ton, down 138 dollars/ton from April 16 [6]. - LME inventory on April 25, 2025, was 203,850 tons, down 678 tons from April 16 [6]. - SHFE inventory on April 25, 2025, was 24,800 tons, down 520 tons from April 16 [6]. - Jinchuan nickel premium on April 25, 2025, was 2,150 yuan/ton, down 600 yuan/ton from April 16 [6]. - Russian nickel premium remained unchanged at 250 yuan/ton from April 16 to April 25 [6]. - The average price of high - nickel pig iron on April 25, 2025, was 990 yuan/nickel point, down 20 yuan/nickel point from April 16 [6]. - Stainless - steel inventory on April 25, 2025, was 926,000 tons, down 17,400 tons from April 16 [6]. 2. Market Review Nickel Ore - The FOB price of Philippine 1.5% laterite nickel ore rose from 49.25 dollars/wet ton to 51 dollars/wet ton, and the FOB price of Indonesian 1.5% laterite nickel ore rose from 36.25 dollars/wet ton to 38 dollars/wet ton (April 18). Although Indonesia recently lowered the April (Phase II) domestic trade benchmark price, the shortage situation continues, and the prices of both Indonesian and Philippine nickel ores have increased [7]. - Domestic nickel ore port inventories have reached a low level in recent years. Despite the continuous increase in domestic nickel ore arrivals this year, the demand for nickel ore is strong due to the record - high domestic refined nickel production [7]. Ferronickel - The average arrival - port duty - paid price of 10 - 12% high - nickel pig iron dropped from 987 yuan/nickel point to 973 yuan/nickel point. In March, China's ferronickel production was 25,400 metal tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.25%. In March, the total domestic ferronickel imports were about 1.0133 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 60%, and the import scale exceeded one million tons for the first time. Indonesia's ferronickel production in April is expected to be 141,000 nickel tons, a year - on - year increase of 15.3% and a month - on - month decrease of 0.44%, with the production growth rate significantly slowing down [8]. - In April, the total production of China's 300 - series stainless steel was about 1.92 million tons, an increase of 26 tons compared with the same period last year. As of April 24, the domestic stainless - steel inventory was 579,600 tons, a month - on - month destocking of 15,900 tons. Overall, the inventory accumulation of stainless steel has slowed down, but the destocking trend is not obvious, and the inventory remains at a high level. Currently, domestic ferronickel still faces strong cost pressure and high import dependence, with the import scale reaching a new high. However, the current nickel ore supply in Indonesia is tight, and the growth of ferronickel production has significantly slowed down [8]. Nickel Sulfate - The price of battery - grade nickel sulfate rose from 28,050 yuan/ton to 28,080 yuan/ton, and the price of electroplating - grade nickel sulfate rose from 29,750 yuan/ton to 30,750 yuan/ton. In April, the expected production of nickel sulfate is about 27,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.19%. In April, the production of ternary materials rebounded month - on - month, with a total of about 62,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.22%. Overall, the new - energy power market performs mediocrely, the mainstream cathode is still lithium - iron phosphate, and the market share of ternary materials is continuously compressed. With the future entry of CATL's sodium - ion batteries into the market, the market share of ternary batteries may be further squeezed, and the long - term demand for nickel sulfate is expected to decline [9]. Macro - level - Trump signaled tariff negotiations and said that the tariff sanctions on China would be significantly reduced, but as of the report release, Sino - US tariff negotiations had not started. The US economic survey report shows that there is no obvious change in the US domestic economy, but it repeatedly emphasizes the uncertainty of the impact of tariff policies on the economy. Fed officials said that there are signs of cooling in the US labor market, and the Fed may start to cut interest rates in June after getting more data support. After the news was released, non - ferrous metals, crude oil, and gold rebounded significantly [5][9][10]. Fundamentals - Supply side: In April, domestic production capacity was stable, and production reached a new high. The expected production of refined nickel in April was 34,280 tons, an increase of about 2,120 tons from the previous month; the sample production capacity was 53,299 tons, the same as the previous period; the expected operating rate in April was 64.32%, an increase of about 0.12 percentage points from the previous month. In March, the domestic electrolytic nickel export scale was about 145,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 93.53%. As of April 23, the export profit of Chinese nickel under the SMM caliber was 218.08 dollars/ton. Overall, although the month - on - month export of domestic electrolytic nickel has shrunk, the year - on - year increase is significant, and the absolute volume remains at a high level. With the stable nickel price, the domestic - foreign price difference is corrected, and the export window re - opens, which will still support high domestic electrolytic nickel supply [10]. - Consumption side: From April 1 - 20, the retail sales of new - energy passenger vehicles nationwide were 478,000 units, a year - on - year increase of 20% compared with the same period in April last year and a month - on - month decrease of 11%. The retail penetration rate was 53.3%. Since the beginning of this year, the cumulative retail sales have been 2.898 million units, a year - on - year increase of 33%. In early April, the growth rate of new - energy vehicle sales slowed down significantly, dragging down the annual consumption growth rate. According to the CPCA, the production - sales ratio of new - energy vehicles is at a low level, and the post - holiday rebound is weaker than in previous years. The weak demand momentum leads to a mismatch between vehicle manufacturers' production plans and sales expectations, and the inventory pressure on the whole vehicle remains. Short - term consumption may depend on the results of the auto show in the second half of the month. Currently, China and the EU have started negotiations on electric - vehicle prices, and a minimum - pricing plan will replace the tariff plan. However, regardless of the pricing result, the competitiveness of domestic brands in the European market will gradually weaken, and the external demand for exports is not optimistic. In the traditional field, as of April 20, the cumulative sales of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities were 285,600 units, a year - on - year decrease of 1.87%; the cumulative sales area was 29.6657 million square meters, a year - on - year increase of 4.16%. Overall, the domestic commodity sales have weakened again, and the year - on - year negative growth shows signs of expanding, indicating that the previous replacement demand may be coming to an end. With the lack of financial attributes, the rigid - demand consumption of housing is limited. However, there is still a window for the easing of Sino - US trade, and electrical appliance orders are expected to gradually recover in the near future, but the incremental expectation is limited, and it is difficult to change the bearish fundamentals [11]. Inventory - The current total social inventory of pure nickel in six locations is 44,661 tons, an increase of 701 tons from the previous period; the SHFE inventory is 24,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 520 tons; the LME nickel inventory is 203,850 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 678 tons; the total inventory of the world's two major exchanges is 228,650 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1,198 tons [12]. 3. Industry Highlights - LG's withdrawal may delay Indonesia's goal of becoming an electric - vehicle battery center. The vice - chairman of the Indonesian Energy, Mineral, and Coal Suppliers Association said that LG's withdrawal from the "Titan Project" may delay Indonesia's goal of becoming a center for electric - vehicle (EV) batteries [14]. - The construction of Jinchuan's nickel - cobalt nickel smelter project has accelerated. In 2025, Jinchuan's nickel - cobalt nickel smelter launched a "key - project mode" focusing on technological innovation, equipment upgrading, and green transformation. The number of projects increased by 145% year - on - year, and the investment increased by 41.5% to comprehensively enhance core competitiveness [14]. - Hanrui Cobalt has postponed the commissioning of its nickel smelter in Indonesia to 2026. Nanjing Hanrui Cobalt Co., Ltd. has postponed the commissioning of its nickel - smelting project in Indonesia to March 31, 2026, citing delays in obtaining administrative permits at the project site and complex geological conditions [14]. - Zhefu Holdings' nickel sulfate production line has been put into operation. As of April 16, Zhefu Holdings stated on the investor interaction platform that its nickel sulfate production line has been put into operation, with a nickel equivalent production of about 6,400 tons in 2024. The refined cobalt sulfate and lithium carbonate projects have basically completed construction and are ready for commissioning [14].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - For corn, due to the intensifying Sino - US trade tensions, some US farmers are increasing corn planting area. In the domestic market, the remaining grain in the Northeast is almost exhausted, and traders are reluctant to sell. The supply in the North China and Huanghuai regions is also decreasing, while the deep - processing industry's demand is rising. The drought in the wheat - producing areas indirectly boosts the corn price. The planting area of new - crop corn in the Northeast is expected to remain stable. The recent corn futures price has increased, and short - term long - position participation is recommended [2]. - For corn starch, the supply - demand situation is weak, with continuous losses in industry profits, a decline in the开机率 of corn starch enterprises, and a decrease in supply pressure. However, the downstream demand is poor, and the industry inventory remains high. The recent starch futures price has increased with the corn price, and short - term long - position participation is recommended [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the active contract of 25 - corn starch futures is 2361 yuan/ton, and that of 27 - corn starch futures is 2721 yuan/ton with a 12 - yuan increase. The 9 - 1 corn monthly spread is 85 yuan/ton, and the 7 - 9 corn starch monthly spread is - 79 yuan/ton with a 16 - yuan decrease. The futures positions of active contracts for yellow corn and corn starch are 95602 hands and 1473106 hands respectively. The net long positions of the top 20 futures holders for corn and corn starch are - 46511 hands and - 189933 hands respectively. The registered warehouse receipts for yellow corn and corn starch are 32318 hands and 112229 hands respectively. The CS - C spread of the main contract is 420 yuan/ton [2]. Outer - market - The closing price of the active contract of CBOT corn futures is 484 cents/bushel. The total position of CBOT corn is 1707988 contracts with a decrease of 16007 contracts. The non - commercial net long position of CBOT corn is 219843 contracts with a decrease of 14339 contracts [2]. Spot Market - The average spot price of corn is 2292.55 yuan/ton. The ex - factory prices of corn starch in Changchun, Weifang, and Shijiazhuang are 2590 yuan/ton, 2760 yuan/ton, and 2740 yuan/ton respectively. The import CIF price of corn is 2210.55 yuan/ton, and the international freight is 0 US dollars/ton. The basis of the corn main contract is - 68.45 yuan/ton, and the basis of the corn starch main contract is - 131 yuan/ton. The spread between Shandong starch and corn is 450 yuan/ton with a 10 - yuan decrease [2]. Upstream Situation - The predicted planting areas of corn in the US, Brazil, Argentina, China, and Ukraine are 377.63 million hectares, 33.55 million hectares, 50 million hectares, 294.92 million hectares, and 26.8 million hectares respectively. The predicted yields are 126 million tons, 22.3 million tons, 6.4 million tons, 44.74 million tons, and 0.3 million tons respectively. The corn inventory in southern ports is 162 tons with a 2.5 - ton decrease, and the deep - processing corn inventory is 558.8 tons with a 29.9 - ton decrease [2]. Industry Situation - The corn inventory in northern ports is 526 tons with a 4 - ton decrease. The monthly import volume of corn is 8 tons, and the monthly export volume of corn starch is 20.35 tons with a 0.93 - ton decrease. The monthly output of feed is 2777.2 tons with a 66.4 - ton decrease [2]. Downstream Situation - The inventory days of sample feed corn is 35.74 days. The deep - processing corn consumption is 125.48 tons with a 0.95 - ton decrease. The alcohol enterprise's startup rate is 48.96% with a 4.89% decrease, and the starch enterprise's startup rate is 58.37% with a 4.43% increase [2]. Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of corn is 8.18% with a 0.65% increase, and the 60 - day historical volatility is 7.9% with a 0.28% increase. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options and put options for corn is 10.05% and 10.06% respectively [2]. Industry News - The 2025 US corn planting season has begun. Due to the intensifying Sino - US trade tensions, some farmers are increasing corn planting area. As of April 24, Ukraine has sown 200.1 million hectares of spring grains, accounting for 35% of the planned area [2].