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成材:受宏观扰动,钢价震荡走低
Hua Bao Qi Huo· 2025-10-15 03:07
晨报 成材 成材:受宏观扰动 钢价震荡走低 整理 投资咨询业务资格: 负责人:赵 毅 从业资格号:F3059924 投资咨询号:Z0002978 电话:010-62688526 成 材:武秋婷 从业资格号:F3078638 投资咨询号:Z0018248 电话:010-62688555 本报告中的信息均来源于公开的资料,我公司对信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证,也不保证包含的信 息和建议不会发生变更,我们已力求报告内容的客观、公正,但文中观点、结论和建议仅供参考,投资者据此 做出的任何投资决策与本公司和作者无关。 地址:北京市海淀区海淀大街 8 号 19 层 ☎ 400-700-6700 www.zgfcc.com 原材料: 冯艳成 从业资格号:F3059529 投资咨询号:Z0018932 电话:010-62688516 有色金属:于梦雪 从业资格号:F03127144 投资咨询号:Z0020161 电话:021-20857653 成文时间: 2025 年 10 月 15 日 逻辑:2 中钢协:2025 年 10 月上旬,重点钢企粗钢日产 203.2 万吨, 环比增 7.5%;钢材库存量 1588 万吨,环比 ...
建信期货铁矿石日评-20251015
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-10-15 02:41
021-60635727 期货从业资格号:F03134307 021-60635736 期货从业资格号:F3033782 投资咨询证书号:Z0014484 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F03124070 请阅读正文后的声明 报告类型 铁矿石日评 日期 2025 年 10 月 15 日 黑色金属研究团队 研究员:翟贺攀 zhaihepan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 研究员:聂嘉怡 研究员:冯泽仁 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 数据来源:上期所、大商所网站,建信期货研究发展部 #summary# 每日报告 | | | | | | 表1:10月14日钢材、铁矿期货主力合约价格、成交及持仓情况(单位:元/吨、%、手、亿元) | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 代码 | 前收 盘价 | 开盘价 | 最高价 | 最低价 | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 持仓量 | 持仓量 变 ...
取消!美国开始兑现对华承诺,中国紧盯全球,不守规矩必遭反制
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-07-08 07:02
Group 1 - The article discusses the ongoing trade tensions between the US and China, highlighting that the US has begun to fulfill some commitments by canceling tariffs on certain Chinese products, indicating a recognition of China's retaliatory capabilities [3][4]. - The US is shifting its strategy to isolate China by negotiating tariffs with other countries, such as Vietnam, where the US has agreed to not impose tariffs on Vietnamese goods while imposing a 20% tariff on goods exported from Vietnam, particularly targeting "transshipment trade" that involves Chinese products [3][4]. - If this layered tariff policy is adopted broadly, it could effectively exclude Chinese companies from the US market, forcing many businesses that invest in China to relocate to countries like Vietnam and India, leading to further hollowing out of China's industrial chain [4]. Group 2 - China has made it clear that it will not remain passive in the face of new US strategies, stating that any tariff negotiations that harm Chinese interests will be met with decisive countermeasures [6][9]. - The article emphasizes that if Vietnam's negotiations with the US negatively impact China, China could choose to restrict trade relations, as Vietnam's economic growth heavily relies on China's extensive supply chain [8][9]. - Vietnam is portrayed as having misjudged the situation by compromising with the US, believing it would enhance its own industrial development, but it may not receive the necessary support from China that is crucial for its economic sustainability [11].
瑞达期货股指期货全景日报-20250604
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-06-04 09:04
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - A - share major indices closed up, with small - and medium - cap stocks outperforming large - cap blue - chips. The market is facing uncertainties due to overseas trade issues and domestic economic conditions. The domestic manufacturing PMI in May rebounded slightly but remained below the boom - bust line. The index is oscillating near the gap before the market's sharp decline on April 3rd, facing significant upward pressure. The market is in a policy vacuum period, lacking a clear short - term main line and expected to maintain an oscillating trend. It is recommended to wait and see [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Disk - All main and secondary contracts of IF, IH, IC, and IM showed upward trends. For example, the IF main contract (2506) rose to 3842.4, up 15.6. The spreads between different contracts also changed, with most showing an upward trend. The differences between quarterly and current - month contracts mostly decreased. For instance, IF current - quarter minus current - month was - 73.0, unchanged [2]. 3.2 Futures Positions - The net positions of the top 20 in IF and IC decreased, while that of IH increased. The net position of IM decreased. For example, the IF top 20 net position was - 29,186.00, down 347.0 [2]. 3.3 Spot Prices - The spot prices of the Shanghai - Shenzhen 300, Shanghai Composite 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 all rose. The basis of the corresponding main contracts also changed, with most showing an upward trend. For example, the Shanghai - Shenzhen 300 rose to 3868.74, up 16.7, and the IF main contract basis was - 26.3, up 0.9 [2]. 3.4 Market Sentiment - A - share trading volume, margin trading balance, and north - bound trading volume all increased. The proportion of rising stocks increased, while the Shibor decreased. Option prices and implied volatilities also changed. For example, A - share trading volume reached 11,774.13 billion yuan, up 135.83 billion yuan [2]. 3.5 Wind Market Strength - Weakness Analysis - All A - shares, technical, and capital aspects showed upward trends. The manufacturing PMI in May was 49.5%, up 0.5 percentage points month - on - month; the non - manufacturing PMI was 50.3%, down 0.1 percentage points; the composite PMI was 50.4%, up 0.2 percentage points. New export and import order indices increased [2]. 3.6 Industry News - The US will raise the import steel tariff from 25% to 50% starting from June 4. The US Trade Representative's Office extended the exemption period for the 301 investigation on China until August 31 [2]. 3.7 Key Focus - Important economic data and events to watch include the US May ADP employment number on June 4 at 20:15, the Canadian central bank's interest rate decision on June 4 at 21:45, etc [3].
中美关税暂缓,特朗普给中方下“通牒”,美国先收到坏消息
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-05-27 10:22
Group 1 - The core point of the news is the recent trade negotiations between China and the U.S., where both sides have reached a temporary agreement to reduce tariffs on each other's goods, with China lowering tariffs from 125% to 10% and the U.S. reducing tariffs to 30% [1][2] - The Chinese government has implemented countermeasures against the U.S. tariffs, which include both tariff and non-tariff measures, to protect its legitimate rights and interests [1][2] - The U.S. Treasury Secretary has warned other countries to engage in negotiations with China, indicating that failure to do so may result in the reinstatement of higher tariffs after the 90-day pause [4] Group 2 - Analysts predict a surge in imports from China within the next 90 days, with the term "rush" being highlighted as a key trend [2] - The U.S. credit rating has been downgraded by Moody's from Aaa to Aa1, reflecting concerns over the country's rising debt and fiscal management issues [6][8] - To regain its Aaa rating, the U.S. must establish a workable long-term budget plan, balancing welfare and defense spending, which appears challenging under the current administration's policies [8]
福能期货:螺纹钢重回弱势运行
Qi Huo Ri Bao· 2025-05-22 00:40
Group 1 - The short-term macroeconomic positive effects are weakening, and terminal demand is facing downward pressure, leading to an increasing contradiction between supply and demand for rebar if steel mills maintain current supply levels, making it difficult for profits to sustain [1][5] - Recent macroeconomic developments include significant progress in US-China trade talks, with both sides agreeing to substantially reduce bilateral tariffs, and a reduction in the one-year and five-year Loan Prime Rates (LPR) by the central bank [1][2] - The apparent consumption of rebar was 2.6029 million tons last week, showing a week-on-week increase of 463,900 tons, indicating some resilience in demand, but the overall downward trend remains unchanged [2] Group 2 - Steel mills have maintained high production levels, with rebar production at 2.2653 million tons last week, an increase of 30,000 tons week-on-week, despite expectations of administrative production restrictions [3] - The average daily pig iron production is at 2.4477 million tons, which is high for this time of year, but the oversupply of coking coal continues, leading to a weak pricing environment for both coking coal and coke [4] - The total inventory of rebar was 6.1987 million tons last week, a decrease of 337,600 tons week-on-week, but if demand weakens further, the supply-demand contradiction may gradually increase [3][4]
“美国留30%关税,中国留10%”,是怎么回事?
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-05-13 20:21
Group 1 - The claim that the U.S. retains 30% tariffs on China while China only maintains 10% tariffs is incorrect, as both sides have implemented targeted retaliatory tariffs [1][2] - Prior to April 2, the aggressive tariff increases from both sides achieved a dynamic balance, contradicting the narrative that the U.S. imposed 145% tariffs while China imposed 125% [5][6] - The U.S. tariffs primarily targeted key Chinese exports, including energy and agricultural products, while China's retaliatory measures were more selective [2][5] Group 2 - The Chinese government has refrained from engaging in disputes over the perceived imbalance in tariffs, possibly to facilitate concessions from the U.S. [6] - It is important for the Chinese public to understand the actual dynamics of the trade situation and not be swayed by narratives suggesting that the U.S. has emerged victorious [6]
安粮期货豆粕日报-20250507
An Liang Qi Huo· 2025-05-07 05:32
Group 1: Soybean Oil - Spot market: The price of Grade 1 soybean oil at Rizhao Cargill is 8,060 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [1] - International soybeans: It's currently the U.S. soybean sowing season and the South American soybean harvesting and exporting season, with Brazil's soybean harvest almost completed. South American new - crop soybean is likely to have a bumper harvest [1] - Domestic industry: The medium - term destocking cycle of soybean oil may be ending. After the arrival of South American imported soybeans and customs clearance, the soybean oil inventory may rebound from a low level [1] - Reference view: The short - term trading of the soybean oil 2509 contract may fluctuate within a range [1] Group 2: Soybean Meal - Spot information: The spot prices of 43 soybean meal in different regions are: Zhangjiagang 3,100 yuan/ton (- 220), Tianjin 3,180 yuan/ton (- 120), Rizhao 3,090 yuan/ton (- 440), Dongguan 3,220 yuan/ton (- 160) [2] - Market analysis: The Sino - U.S. trade tariff issue remains unresolved, affecting Sino - U.S. soybean trade. The market focus has shifted to the North American sowing season, and Brazilian soybeans are about to enter the export peak. Currently, the spot supply of soybean meal is tight, but it will gradually ease as the concentrated arrival of imported soybeans restores oil mill operations. Post - holiday downstream restocking may boost short - term trading volume [2] - Reference view: Soybean meal may run weakly in the short term [2] Group 3: Corn - Spot information: The mainstream purchase prices of new corn are: 2,184 yuan/ton in key deep - processing enterprises in Northeast China and Inner Mongolia; 2,404 yuan/ton in key enterprises in North China and Huanghuai; 2,260 - 2,270 yuan/ton at Jinzhou Port (15% moisture/680 - 720 bulk density); 2,250 - 2,270 yuan/ton at Bayuquan Port (680 - 730 bulk density/15% moisture) [3] - Market analysis: The Sino - U.S. tariff dispute has limited impact on the corn market due to China's decreasing import dependence and import substitution from Brazil. Domestically, the supply is gradually tightening due to factors such as the end of the harvest season, a sharp decrease in imports in the first quarter, and the price increase of new wheat. Downstream demand is weak, with cautious purchasing and low consumption [3] - Reference view: The domestic corn market is in the gap between old and new grains, and the corn price is likely to rise. Short - term trading should focus on long positions [3] Group 4: Copper - Spot information: The price of Shanghai 1 electrolytic copper is 78,030 - 78,350 yuan, up 240 yuan, with a premium of 250 - 320 yuan. The imported copper ore index is - 42.61, down 0.09 [4] - Market analysis: The global market is still affected by "irrational" tariffs, with high volatility in overseas capital markets. The Fed's uncertain actions add to the long - term uncertainty. Domestically, policies are boosting market sentiment. The raw material supply problem persists, and the rapid decline in domestic copper inventory intensifies the game between reality and expectations [5] - Reference view: The monthly K - line of copper price shows a balance between yin and yang. Attention should be paid to the suppression effect of the moving average system [5] Group 5: Lithium Carbonate - Spot information: The market price of battery - grade lithium carbonate (99.5%) is 66,850 yuan/ton (- 1,050 yuan/ton), and that of industrial - grade lithium carbonate (99.2%) is 65,150 yuan/ton (- 1,050 yuan/ton). The price difference between the two remains unchanged at 1,700 yuan/ton [6] - Market analysis: The cost pressure is increasing, with lithium ore prices dropping rapidly and reducing smelting enterprises' profit margins. Supply is increasing, especially from the mica end, and the production capacity of salt - lake lithium extraction will further expand with rising temperatures. Demand has improved but is still insufficient to drive prices up [6] - Inventory: Weekly inventory has been accumulating. As of April 24, the weekly inventory is 131,864 (+ 259) physical tons. The monthly inventory in March is 90,070 physical tons, a year - on - year increase of 47% and a month - on - month increase of 17% [7] - Reference view: The lithium carbonate 2507 contract may fluctuate weakly. Short - selling on rallies is recommended [7] Group 6: Steel - Spot information: The price of Shanghai rebar is 3,160 yuan, the Tangshan operation rate is 83.56%, the social inventory is 5.3276 million tons, and the rebar mill inventory is 2.004 million tons [8] - Market analysis: The fundamentals of steel are gradually improving, with the contango structure weakening and the current valuation being moderately low. Policy supports the real estate industry. The apparent demand for steel has decreased year - on - year, raw material prices have fluctuated weakly this week, and the cost center of steel is dynamically changing. Both social and mill inventories are decreasing, and the overall inventory level is low. Short - term macro - policy expectations dominate the market, and the market shows a pattern of strong supply and demand [8] - Reference view: After the macro - negative factors are digested, a long - position strategy at low prices for far - month contracts after May is recommended [8] Group 7: Coking Coal and Coke - Spot information: The price of coking coal (clean coal, Meng 5) is 1,205 yuan/ton; the price of metallurgical coke (Grade 1) at Rizhao Port is 1,340 yuan/ton; the port inventory of imported coking coal is 3.3738 million tons; the port inventory of coke is 2.461 million tons [9] - Market analysis: Supply is relatively loose, with domestic production capacity recovering steadily and the coking plant utilization rate stable. Mongolian coal imports remain at a high level. Demand is weak, with steel mills reducing production and iron - water output expected to decline. Independent coking enterprises maintain low raw - material inventories, and the overall inventory is slightly increasing. The average profit per ton of coke is stable and approaching the break - even point [9] - Reference view: Due to the loose supply, coking coal and coke may have a weak rebound with limited upside potential [9] Group 8: Iron Ore - Spot information: The Platts iron ore index is 98.15, the price of Qingdao PB (61.5%) powder is 765 yuan, and the price of Australian iron ore powder (62% Fe) is 760 yuan [10] - Market analysis: The iron ore market has both positive and negative factors. Supply has decreased slightly, with Australian shipments falling and Brazilian shipments rising. Port inventory has decreased by 1.1239 million tons. Demand has increased, with domestic steel mills' iron - water output rising, but steel mills' raw - material procurement remains cautious. Overseas demand is differentiated, and the U.S. tariff policy has increased price volatility [10] - Reference view: The short - term trading of the iron ore 2505 contract may be weak and fluctuate. Traders are advised to be cautious [10] Group 9: Crude Oil - Market analysis: OPEC+ will increase production by 411,000 barrels per day in June, and the market expects an oversupply. The price of WTI crude oil may decline, but it has technical support at 55 dollars/barrel. The U.S. trade war and the delay of the Russia - Ukraine peace talks have increased uncertainty, and the second - quarter demand may be severely affected [11] - Reference view: Pay attention to the follow - up trend of the domestic market as WTI has support at 55 dollars/barrel [11] Group 10: Rubber - Market analysis: The impact of the U.S. "reciprocal tariff" on rubber prices has been mostly priced in, and the market is now driven by fundamentals. The supply is relatively loose, with domestic and Southeast Asian rubber plantations starting to harvest. The U.S. automobile tariff may suppress global rubber demand. Attention should be paid to domestic rubber imports and inventory changes [11] - Reference view: Pay attention to the downstream operation rate of Shanghai rubber. The main contract may rebound near the support level of 14,000 yuan/ton [11] Group 11: PVC - Spot information: The mainstream price of East China Type 5 PVC is 4,700 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton from the previous period; the mainstream price of ethylene - based PVC is 5,050 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price difference between the two is 350 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton [12] - Market analysis: The PVC production enterprise operation rate increased by 0.70% week - on - week to 79.33% last week. Domestic downstream demand has not improved significantly, with mainly rigid - demand transactions. As of April 30, the PVC social inventory decreased by 4.94% week - on - week to 653,700 tons [12] - Reference view: Due to the weak demand, the futures price may fluctuate at a low level [12] Group 12: Soda Ash - Spot information: The national mainstream price of heavy soda ash is 1,414.69 yuan/ton, unchanged. The mainstream prices in East China, North China, and Central China are also unchanged [13] - Market analysis: Before the holiday, the overall operation rate of soda ash was 89.44%, down 0.06% week - on - week, and the production was 755,100 tons, down 0.05 million tons. The inventory of manufacturers decreased by 20,300 tons to 1.691 million tons, and the social inventory also decreased. Demand is average, with downstream enterprises only replenishing inventory for low - price goods [13] - Reference view: After the holiday, the futures market may fluctuate widely in the short term [13]
宁证期货今日早评-20250506
Ning Zheng Qi Huo· 2025-05-06 09:45
Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - The report provides short - term investment strategies and market outlooks for multiple commodities including metals, energy, agricultural products, and financial products [1][2][4][5][6][8][9][10][11][12][13][14] - For most commodities, the market is influenced by factors such as supply - demand relationships, macro - economic policies, and international trade situations Summaries by Commodity Metals - **Steel (Rebar)**: The fundamentals show high production and demand, with good inventory reduction. However, due to potential high tariffs and seasonal factors, the demand may weaken. It is recommended to short - sell rebar at high prices [1] - **Gold**: Although short - term factors are bearish, the long - term trade war situation provides some support. A mid - term high - level oscillatory and slightly bullish approach is appropriate [2] - **Iron Ore**: The inventory has increased, and the short - term trend is mainly influenced by macro factors and policy expectations. It is expected to oscillate in the short term [5] - **Silver**: The trend is determined by the US economic situation. With a bearish fundamental outlook, a mid - term wide - range oscillatory approach is advisable [8] Energy - **Crude Oil**: OPEC+ plans to increase production, but the actual increase is weakened. There is a risk of further price decline in the medium - to - long - term due to potential supply surplus [12] - **Methanol**: With stable coal prices and good profits, the supply is expected to increase while the demand decreases. The 09 contract is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [9] Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: Production is increasing, and the price is following competitive oils. With increasing imports, it is recommended to short - sell at high prices [6] - **Soybean**: Domestic prices are high, and due to limited supply and by - product support, it is advisable to buy at low prices [6] - **Pig**: After the holiday, the supply is increasing while the demand is weakening. Pig prices are expected to decline slightly, and farmers are advised to hedge by selling [5] - **Rubber**: With increasing raw material supply and weak demand, the price is expected to oscillate weakly [13] - **PTA**: PX and PTA are in concentrated maintenance, but downstream demand is weakening. It is advisable to short - sell PTA at high prices [14] Others - **Coking Coal**: The supply - demand situation is expected to remain loose. It is recommended to short - sell at high prices and maintain a long - hot - rolled - coil and short - coking - coal strategy [4] - **Treasury Bonds**: Fiscal policy is strengthening, and bond supply is increasing. A mid - term wide - range oscillatory approach is appropriate [8] - **Soda Ash**: The price is stable, and the supply is expected to decrease while the demand is average. The 09 contract is expected to oscillate in the short term [10] - **Caustic Soda**: The device is operating at a high level, and the inventory is decreasing. The 09 contract is expected to oscillate in the short term [11]
玉米类市场周报:看涨情绪提振,玉米期价继续收涨-20250430
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-04-30 09:12
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For corn, adopt a bullish strategy. This week, corn futures closed higher with the 2507 contract at 2377 yuan/ton, up 41 yuan/ton from last week. The Sino-US tariff dispute and domestic factors like reduced supply and wheat concerns are positive for corn prices. New - crop planting area is expected to be stable [10]. - For corn starch, also take a bullish strategy. This week, Dalian corn starch futures rebounded with the 2507 contract at 2748 yuan/ton, up 39 yuan/ton from last week. Although supply pressure has decreased due to low开机率, demand is weak, and inventory remains high [14]. 3. Summary According to the Catalog 3.1. Weekly Key Points Summary - **Corn** - **Strategy**: Adopt a bullish strategy [9] - **Market Review**: This week, corn futures closed higher. The closing price of the 2507 contract was 2377 yuan/ton, up 41 yuan/ton from last week [10] - **Market Outlook**: The Sino - US tariff dispute benefits domestic corn prices. In the Northeast, less grain is available, and traders are holding prices. In North China and the Huang - Huai region, there is little remaining grain, and the wheat drought boosts corn prices. New - crop planting area is expected to be stable [10] - **Corn Starch** - **Strategy**: Adopt a bullish strategy [13] - **Market Review**: Dalian corn starch futures rebounded. The closing price of the 2507 contract was 2748 yuan/ton, up 39 yuan/ton from last week [14] - **Market Outlook**: Supply pressure has decreased due to low开机率, but demand is weak, and inventory remains high. As of April 23, the inventory was 138.7 tons, up 0.40 tons from last week [14] 3.2. Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Price and Position Changes** - Corn futures' July contract rebounded with a total position of 1490492 hands, up 112988 hands from last week. Corn starch futures' July contract also rebounded with a total position of 227589 hands, up 3156 hands from last week [20] - **Top 20 Net Position Changes** - The top 20 net position of corn futures was - 206482, an increase in net short positions compared to last week. The top 20 net position of starch futures was - 10338, a decrease in net short positions compared to last week [29] - **Futures Warehouse Receipts** - The registered warehouse receipts of yellow corn were 168663, and that of corn starch were 8450 [35] - **Spot Price and Basis** - As of April 29, 2025, the average spot price of corn was 2305.29 yuan/ton, and the basis between the active July contract and the spot price was - 70 yuan/ton. Corn starch prices in Jilin and Shandong were relatively stable, and the basis between the July contract and Jilin's spot price was - 48 yuan/ton [40][44] - **Futures Inter - monthly Spread** - The 7 - 9 spread of corn was - 15 yuan/ton, and that of starch was - 68 yuan/ton, both at medium levels in the same period [50] - **Futures Spread between Starch and Corn** - The spread between the July contracts of starch and corn was 371 yuan/ton. In the 17th week of 2025, the spread between Shandong's corn and corn starch was 450 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton from last week [59] - **Substitute Spread** - As of April 29, 2025, the wheat - corn spread was 149.32 yuan/ton. In the 17th week of 2025, the average spread between tapioca starch and corn starch was 266 yuan/ton, narrowing by 3 yuan/ton from last week [63] 3.3. Industrial Chain Situation - **Corn - Supply Side** - **Port Inventory**: As of April 18, 2025, the domestic and foreign trade inventories in Guangdong Port decreased, and the inventory in the four northern ports also decreased, with a decrease in the shipping volume [54] - **Grain Sales Progress**: As of April 24, the grain sales progress of 13 provinces was 95%, 5% faster than last year, and that of 7 major producing provinces was 94%, also 5% faster than last year [67] - **Monthly Imports**: In March 2025, the import of ordinary corn was 8.00 tons, a 95.32% decrease from the same period last year and the same as last month [71] - **Feed Enterprise Inventory**: As of April 24, the average inventory of feed enterprises was 35.74 days, up 0.20 days from last week [75] - **Corn - Demand Side** - **Livestock Inventory**: As of the end of the first quarter of 2025, the pig inventory was 41731 million, a 2.2% year - on - year increase, and the breeding sow inventory was 4039 million, a decrease of 27 million from last month [79] - **Breeding Profit**: As of April 25, 2025, the self - breeding and self - raising pig profit was 100.16 yuan/head, and the profit of purchasing piglets was 53.62 yuan/head [83] - **Processing Profit**: As of April 29, 2025, the corn starch processing profit in Jilin was - 91 yuan/ton, and the corn alcohol processing profit in Henan, Jilin, and Heilongjiang was negative [88] - **Corn Starch - Supply Side** - **Enterprise Inventory**: As of April 30, 2025, the corn inventory of 96 major corn processing enterprises in 12 regions decreased by 6.66% [92] - **Starch Enterprise Startup Rate and Inventory**: From April 17 - 23, 2025, the corn processing volume and starch production increased, and the startup rate was 58.37%, up 4.43% from last week. As of April 23, the starch inventory was 138.7 tons, up 0.40 tons from last week [96] 3.4. Option Market Analysis - As of April 30, the implied volatility of the corn 2507 contract rebounded to 12.47%, up 2.64% from last week, and was at a relatively high level compared to the 20 - day, 40 - day, and 60 - day historical volatilities [99] 3.5. Representative Enterprise - The report mentions the price - earnings ratio change of Beidahuang, but no detailed analysis is provided [101]