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可能又要创新高了
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-09-19 11:13
又是激情澎湃的一周:美联储降息落地、多个宽基指数创出本轮新高、获利资金开始了结... 这样的宏观环境和市场走势,私募各策略表现如何? 宏观策略 预计表现:本周宏观策略预计稳定运行,部分管理人或继续新高 来源:市场投研资讯 (来源:风云君的研究笔记) 策略环境: 底层资产表现波澜不惊。 国内权益先涨后跌,国债横盘震荡,商品涨跌不一,总体延续震荡,美股保持小幅上涨,comex黄金震 荡,WTI原油先涨后跌。恐慌指数保持平稳。 债券与商品相关性上升,60日滚动相关性目前进入正相关区间。股票与债券商品降低至负区间。股票和 债券相关性小幅上升。 引用一位宏观对冲基金经理的观点: "本周最重磅的事件莫过于美联储降息,但鲍威尔强调政策将根据经济数据和市场变化逐次会议判断, 未释放强烈鸽派信号,也抑制了市场对进一步宽松的预期。 这也带来了后半周一揽子风险资产对流动性溢价的短期修正,尤其是中国市场,较流动性更为敏感,中 国端的股票、债券、商品短期相关性及波动性均有所上升。 以股票为例,中国受投资者风险偏好的驱动,长端利率在过去一个季度显著上行,人民币汇率则也出现 明显升值,而投资数据却继续下滑,这样的组合在未来可能加剧国内经济 ...
量化超额分化,宏观策略回暖...我们投资人有什么需要注意的地方?
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-09-05 11:52
Core Viewpoint - The market has experienced significant volatility this week, but daily trading volume remains high at over 2.5 trillion [1]. Macro Strategy - The macro strategy environment is showing signs of recovery, driven by dovish signals from Powell and a shift in major asset performance between China and the U.S. [4]. - The correlation between stocks and bonds has decreased, indicating a more favorable environment for macro strategies to navigate market fluctuations [3][4]. - Many macro strategies have reached new highs recently, with expectations for continued upward performance in the coming week [5][6]. Quantitative Strategies - The quantitative long equity strategy is expected to show mixed results, with potential for profit pullbacks due to high-frequency trading and market reversals [7]. - The market is experiencing increased volatility, with significant fluctuations in individual stocks and indices [9]. Subjective Strategies - The subjective long equity strategy is anticipated to experience some pullbacks, particularly in sectors like precious metals, Hong Kong pharmaceuticals, and new energy [11]. - The overall market sentiment remains neutral to optimistic, with liquidity indicators showing a slight decline but still within a favorable range [13]. CTA Strategies - The quantitative CTA strategy is expected to show mixed performance, with those heavily invested in precious metals likely to perform better [14]. - The commodity market is experiencing upward fluctuations, particularly in precious metals, while overall market trends remain volatile [15][16]. Market Neutral Strategies - The market neutral strategy is expected to see mixed results, with alpha contributions being positive while hedging contributions may be negative [17]. Arbitrage Strategies - The arbitrage strategy is projected to perform steadily, with stable operations across various strategies despite rising volatility in stock and commodity markets [19].