本文首发于公众号"私募排排网"。 （点击↑↑ 上图查看详情 ） 《大V面对面》栏目介绍 私募排排网推出《大V面对面》专栏，聚焦私募基金领域具有专业影响力与受众号召力（微博、雪球等平台拥有大量粉丝）的意见领袖，通过深度对话解构其 投资哲学与实战案例，为投资者呈现私募大V的智慧沉淀与行业前瞻。 8月，受权益市场走强、黄金等贵金属上涨的影响，宏观策略私募产品表现强劲，私募排排网数据显示，截至2025年9月19日，有业绩展示的209只 宏观策略私募产品，今年来收益均值为21.13%，其中7月收益均值为1.91%， 8月收益均值达5.58% ！ 其中， 海南思瑞私募 旗下牛书斌管理的 宏观策略产品 "思瑞乾元宏观B类份额" ， 今年以来 抓住了对等关税下黄金和国债、以及后续 A股牛市行 情等机会，收益 表现突出， 今年来收益达 *** %，夺得 20-50亿规模私募 旗下 宏观策略产品 冠军 。（ 点此查看收益 ） [应监管要求，私募产品不能公开展示业绩，文中涉及收益数据用***替代，合格投资者可扫码查看收益数据。] | 排 名 | 产品简称 | 产品规模 ( 元元) | 今年来收益 | 今年来动态 回撤 | 基金经理 ...

Market Outlook - Goldman Sachs' macro strategy chief discusses the outlook for the US dollar, oil, and a "Goldilocks" economy [1]

（来源：Kevin策略研究） 宏观策略周论【下周一 9:30】：降息后的配置策略 来源：市场投研资讯 ...

又是激情澎湃的一周：美联储降息落地、多个宽基指数创出本轮新高、获利资金开始了结... 这样的宏观环境和市场走势，私募各策略表现如何？ 宏观策略 预计表现：本周宏观策略预计稳定运行，部分管理人或继续新高 来源：市场投研资讯 （来源：风云君的研究笔记） 策略环境： 底层资产表现波澜不惊。 国内权益先涨后跌，国债横盘震荡，商品涨跌不一，总体延续震荡，美股保持小幅上涨，comex黄金震 荡，WTI原油先涨后跌。恐慌指数保持平稳。 债券与商品相关性上升，60日滚动相关性目前进入正相关区间。股票与债券商品降低至负区间。股票和 债券相关性小幅上升。 引用一位宏观对冲基金经理的观点： "本周最重磅的事件莫过于美联储降息，但鲍威尔强调政策将根据经济数据和市场变化逐次会议判断， 未释放强烈鸽派信号，也抑制了市场对进一步宽松的预期。 这也带来了后半周一揽子风险资产对流动性溢价的短期修正，尤其是中国市场，较流动性更为敏感，中 国端的股票、债券、商品短期相关性及波动性均有所上升。 以股票为例，中国受投资者风险偏好的驱动，长端利率在过去一个季度显著上行，人民币汇率则也出现 明显升值，而投资数据却继续下滑，这样的组合在未来可能加剧国内经济 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2025, quantitative strategies are recommended over subjective ones in private securities investment institutions [1] - The private securities investment fund industry in China is characterized by increasing industry concentration with significant advantages for leading institutions, and an enhanced trend of diversified and international investment strategies [23][24] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Background - Affected by geopolitical conflicts and US tariff policies, the global stock market rose in the first half of 2025. A-shares showed an "N-shaped" trend, Hong Kong stocks performed better, and US stocks achieved a "V-shaped reversal". By the end of June 2025, the number of A-share listed companies reached 5,420, an increase of 37 from the end of 2024, and the total market value exceeded 100.02 trillion yuan, hitting a record high. The Beizheng 50 Index soared 39.45% in the first half of the year, leading the world in terms of gains. Industries such as non-ferrous metals (17.93%) and enterprise services (16.85%) led the rise, while industries such as coal (-10.02%) and real estate (-6.52%) faced pressure [4] - Chinese private securities investment funds are privately raised from qualified investors and mainly invest in publicly traded financial assets. They have more flexible investment strategies compared to public funds, lower liquidity, and can achieve differentiated returns through personalized strategies. Their operation must meet strict standards for qualified investors and emphasize the principle of self-risk assumption [5] - The development of Chinese private securities investment funds has evolved from disorderly exploration to standardization and specialization. Since 2025, driven by structural opportunities in the A-share market and excess returns from quantitative strategies, the issuance of private securities funds has recovered. In the first half of the year, over 5,400 new products were filed, with the filing scale increasing by 75% year-on-year [6] Market Status - As of the end of August 2025, the outstanding scale of Chinese private securities investment funds reached 5.56 trillion yuan, accounting for 27.4% of the total scale of private funds, a 6.5% increase from 5.24 trillion yuan at the beginning of 2025. Stock strategies dominate, and diversified strategies such as quantitative hedging and macro strategies are also developing rapidly. In July 2025, 1,313 new private securities funds were filed, with a scale of 79.281 billion yuan, a record high for the year. In the first half of the year, a total of 5,461 new filings were made, a 53.6% increase year-on-year, reflecting a significant trend of funds "entering the market through funds" [7][8] - As of the end of August 2025, there were 7,722 private securities fund managers, 385 fewer than at the end of 2024, mainly due to regulatory cleanup of "fake private funds". Geographically, Shanghai, Beijing, and Shenzhen account for over 50% of the total number of managers, and their management scales account for 25.2%, 23.2%, and 9.7% respectively [9] - The market demand for private securities funds shows a trend of diversification and stratification. The number of qualified investors has continued to expand, covering high-net-worth individuals, insurance funds, pensions, and foreign institutions. Insurance funds are accelerating the allocation of equity assets through pilot programs, and foreign institutions are also increasing their layout in the A-share market. Investor demand is significantly differentiated, with conservative funds preferring low-volatility products such as quantitative hedging and macro strategies, and aggressive funds focusing on stock long strategies. Market structural opportunities and policy guidance also affect the flow of funds and drive the continuous iteration of private securities fund strategies [10] Market Competition - The selection of the top ten private securities investment institutions follows a multi-dimensional quantitative evaluation model, with core indicators including management scale and stability, historical performance, and excess return ability [11] - The current industry competition shows a pattern of "siphoning by leading players" and "strategy differentiation". Leading quantitative private funds dominate with technical barriers and excess return ability. In 2025, the number of 10-billion-yuan quantitative private funds reached 41, exceeding that of 10-billion-yuan subjective private funds (40) for the first time. In the first half of the year, the average yield of quantitative private funds was 13.54%, significantly higher than that of subjective private funds (5.51%). Quantitative strategies perform well in volatile markets, while subjective strategies face challenges [12] - Ten institutions, including Gao Yi Asset, Orient Harbor, and Ningbo Magic Square Quantitative, are introduced, each with its own characteristics in terms of management scale, investment strategy, and core team [13][14][15] Development Trends - The Chinese private securities investment fund industry shows a significant "Matthew effect", with leading institutions having significant advantages in terms of funds, talent, technology, data, and trading systems. The number of 10-billion-yuan private fund managers has exceeded 100, and their share of the total industry management scale continues to rise. Small and medium-sized private funds face survival pressure, and foreign private funds are accelerating their localization layout, intensifying industry competition and promoting the concentration of resources to leading institutions [23] - With the deepening of China's capital market reform and the enrichment of financial derivative tools, private securities investment strategies are developing in a diversified direction from traditional stock long to quantitative hedging, macro strategies, event-driven, and cross-border investment. Regulatory authorities encourage private funds to serve the real economy and introduce long-term funds, and the cooperation between private funds and financial institutions such as securities firms and banks is deepening. In the future, strategy innovation and international layout will become core competitiveness [24]

近两周，权益市场回归震荡格局，部分量化和主观多头策略产品面临回撤压力，宏观策略却走出整体上涨的趋势。 私募排排网数据显示，截至2025年8月底，今年来有业绩展示的宏观策略产品共有187只，今年来、8月平均收益分别为18.68%、5.58%，均位列16个私募 二级策略中的第4位。从单月正收益占比变动来看，8月实现正收益的宏观策略产品占比88.12%，相比7月的67.42%大幅回升。 | 二级策略 | 有今年以来业绩展示的产品数 | 今年来平均收益 | 8月平均收益 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 曹保亲杀 | 777 | 35.67% | 8.95% | | 主观多头 | 1974 | 30.08% | 9.19% | | 复合策略 | 397 | 20.80% | 5.98% | | 宏观策略 | 187 | 18.68% | 5.58% | | 转债交易策略 | 120 | 17.16% | 3.61% | | FOF | 146 | 14.20% | 3.94% | | 其他衍生品策略 | 14 | 14.16% | 3.38% | | 股票多空 | 79 | 13.79% | ...

以下文章来源于风云君的研究笔记 ，作者专注私募研究的 风云君的研究笔记 . 深耕私募行业多年，专注私募基金各个策略以及资产配置，希望能分享给大家更深入、更专业的私募那 些事。 过去几年，桥水全天候策略产品表现非常出色，最差产品线一年收益率也在10%到14%之间，平 均收益率大约在16%左右，真正实现了跨越牛熊周期的长期收益。 当然，其策略本身的赚钱逻辑也被越来越多投资人接受。 风险提示：本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见，所涉及标的不作推荐，据此买卖，风险自负。 作者： 风云君的研究笔记 来源：雪球 节目预告：本周三晚，风云君会邀请雪球基金投研举办一场"宏观策略"的专场直播，从市场环境到策略 深度解读。点击添加风云君企微提前报名>> 上周，上证指数一度逼近3900点整数关口，A股情绪很是火热。 但比大盘更"火热"的，是桥水旗下的全天候策略产品。 到底"火热"到什么程度？ 据了解，早在8月份，产品上架即售罄。还因为认购过于火爆，某头部券商直接开启白名单制，大 部分只对高净客户开放，另外各种配售机制也大幅抬高了申购门槛。很多投资者直呼"买不起"， 只能望而却步。 桥水全天候被市场"疯抢" 自然 离不开其策略的优秀 ...

本文首发于公众号"私募排排网"。 （点击↑↑ 上图查看详情 ） 近两周，权益市场回归震荡格局，部分量化和主观多头策略产品面临回撤压力，宏观策略却走出整体上涨的趋势。 私募排排网数据显示，截至2025年8月底， 今年来有业绩展示的宏观策略产品共有 187只，今年来、8月平均收益分别为18.68%、5.58%，均位 列16个私募二级策略中的第4位。 从单月正收益占比变动来看， 8月实现正收益的宏观策略产品占比88.12%，相比7月的67.42%大幅回升。 | 二级策略 | 有今年以来业绩展示的产品数 | 今年来平均收益 | 8月平均收益 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 曹샌웅杀 | 777 | 35.67% | 8.95% | | 主观多头 | 1974 | 30.08% | 9.19% | | 复合策略 | 397 | 20.80% | 5.98% | | 宏观策略 | 187 | 18.68% | 5.58% | | 转债交易策略 | 120 | 17.16% | 3.61% | | FOF | 146 | 14.20% | 3.94% | | 其他衍生品策略 | 14 | 14. ...

Core Viewpoint - The market has experienced significant volatility this week, but daily trading volume remains high at over 2.5 trillion [1]. Macro Strategy - The macro strategy environment is showing signs of recovery, driven by dovish signals from Powell and a shift in major asset performance between China and the U.S. [4]. - The correlation between stocks and bonds has decreased, indicating a more favorable environment for macro strategies to navigate market fluctuations [3][4]. - Many macro strategies have reached new highs recently, with expectations for continued upward performance in the coming week [5][6]. Quantitative Strategies - The quantitative long equity strategy is expected to show mixed results, with potential for profit pullbacks due to high-frequency trading and market reversals [7]. - The market is experiencing increased volatility, with significant fluctuations in individual stocks and indices [9]. Subjective Strategies - The subjective long equity strategy is anticipated to experience some pullbacks, particularly in sectors like precious metals, Hong Kong pharmaceuticals, and new energy [11]. - The overall market sentiment remains neutral to optimistic, with liquidity indicators showing a slight decline but still within a favorable range [13]. CTA Strategies - The quantitative CTA strategy is expected to show mixed performance, with those heavily invested in precious metals likely to perform better [14]. - The commodity market is experiencing upward fluctuations, particularly in precious metals, while overall market trends remain volatile [15][16]. Market Neutral Strategies - The market neutral strategy is expected to see mixed results, with alpha contributions being positive while hedging contributions may be negative [17]. Arbitrage Strategies - The arbitrage strategy is projected to perform steadily, with stable operations across various strategies despite rising volatility in stock and commodity markets [19].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the past two months, geopolitical risks did not cause spill - over effects, and the main line was to maintain stable geopolitical conflicts. Bilateral trade negotiations and tariff issues were under market attention, and China - US economic and trade conflicts maintained a stable stance. Domestic policies showed changes, with the "anti - involution" policy framework moving from expectation to implementation and the fiscal policy showing stronger signals of marginal efforts [3]. - The global risk preference has been repaired, and risk assets generally rose. The US dollar remained weakly volatile, and the market structure changed. The sectors corresponding to "anti - involution" and "expanding domestic demand" in the commodity market were strong, and the pricing expectations for re - inflation and profit repair increased [8][9]. - In the next 1 - 2 months, continue to track geopolitical disturbances and the implementation of US multilateral tariffs and China - US tariff suspension. Domestic policies should be tracked for their hedging effects on the decline in external demand. For financial products, the macro - liquidity is expected to remain stable and positive, and for commodities, the impact of "anti - involution" policies on the market is increasing [11][12][14]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Outlook - **Macro Operation Characteristics**: Geopolitical conflicts remained stable, trade negotiations were under market attention, and domestic policies changed. The "anti - involution" policy was expected to be implemented, and the fiscal policy showed marginal efforts [3]. - **Characteristics of Major Asset Operations**: Since mid - June, global risk preference has been repaired, risk assets generally rose, the US dollar remained weakly volatile, and the market structure changed. The sectors related to "anti - involution" and "expanding domestic demand" in the commodity market were strong [8][9]. - **Future Outlook**: Track geopolitical disturbances, the implementation of US multilateral tariffs and China - US tariff suspension, and the hedging effects of domestic policies on external demand [11][12]. 2. Financial Products - **Stock Index**: In July, the A - share market performed well, with the growth style stronger than the value style. The implementation of the long - term assessment mechanism for insurance funds and "anti - involution" policies supported the market. In August, if there is incremental capital inflow, the performance of equity assets is worth looking forward to, and attention should be paid to sector rotation [23]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Since July, the bond market has been weak, and the yield curve has shown a "bear steepening" feature. In August, the yield of the 10 - year treasury bond may continue to fluctuate within a range, and a curve steepening strategy is recommended [24][25]. 3. Commodities - **Energy**: Oil prices are likely to be under pressure and fluctuate. The coal market may have a tail - end upward period, and the PG/ crude oil ratio is expected to be suppressed. The natural gas market may be weak during the replenishment season [18][27][29]. - **Chemicals**: Propylene futures lack unilateral opportunities in the short term. Styrene is expected to continue its weak consolidation pattern. A strategy of going long on glass and short on soda ash is recommended [31][33][34]. - **Non - ferrous Metals and Precious Metals**: Polysilicon may remain oscillating strongly in the short term, and lithium can be considered for long - position replenishment after a correction. Alumina may face a callback risk, and copper prices may face resistance at integer levels [37][39]. - **Black Metals**: Steel prices are expected to rise with fluctuations, and it is not recommended to chase the rise of iron ore at high prices. Coking coal may be strong in the short term but face valuation pressure in the medium term. Ferroalloys are expected to rise first and then fall with a rising bottom [41][42][43]. - **Agricultural Products**: For oils, it is recommended to go long on soybean and palm oils at low prices. Cotton is expected to oscillate at a high level [46][48].