（来源：策略优基基） 很多投资者都有过这样的经历：跟风买股票，刚上车就遇上大跌，像煮了锅糊掉的红烧肉；全仓蹲债 券，赶上利率下行，收益比楼下早餐店的豆浆还淡；想靠黄金避险，结果买在山顶，套得比隔夜剩菜还 僵…… 让投资者最头疼的，就是猜不准市场——像赌大小一样押注单一资产，要么赚得心跳，要么亏得心疼。 但有一种策略，能把资产变成 "四季都好吃的家常菜"，无论市场是 "暴雨天""桑拿天"，都能端出一桌 不踩雷的饭。它就是宏观策略。 其实宏观策略并不复杂，我们可以把它理解成米其林主厨给资产做"满汉全席"： 普通投资是"单点一道菜"—— 比如只点红烧肉（买股票），好吃但油腻（波动大）；或者只点清炒时 蔬（买债券），健康但没味（收益低）。 *债券是"白粥"：主打一个稳健，例如持有大量长期国债当"主食"，饿了能填肚子（抗跌）； *商品是"调味酱"：加入黄金、原油等与宏观高度联动，同时和权益市场关联度小的品种，给组合提点 "鲜味儿"。 其次：跟随季节更新"时令菜单"（系统化宏观配置） 米其林主厨不会夏天做火锅、冬天上凉菜—— 宏观策略也会跟着 "市场季节" 换时令菜： 要是"天气热"（通胀），就多上 "凉菜"（商品）；要 ...

2025年，私募行业可谓是百花齐放，捷报频传。10月， 百亿私募数量突破100家，私募业重返百家百亿的"双百时代"。 11月底，全国七千余家 存续证券类私募中，超六百家规模实现年度跃升，近百家机构规模跃升两级及以上，中坚力量势头强劲。"小而美"私募也不遑多让，凭借差异化 策略与灵活性操作，深耕细分领域持续创造超额Alpha，为行业生态注入了蓬勃活力。 2025私募十大现 象级事件：AI布局加速、百亿格局巨变... 私 募 基 金 近 1 年 收 益 TOP20 揭 晓 ！ 主 观 多 头 上 榜 门 槛 竟 这 么 高 ！ 百亿私募最新业绩榜揭晓！复胜、幻方居前！东方港湾领先近3年！ 往期推 荐 RECOMMEND 行业规模与产品发行同步走高 ：10月末， 国内存续私募基金管理规模首破 22万亿元大关 ；11 月末进一步攀升至22.09万亿元。截至12月25 日，私募排排网数据显示， 年内新备案产品数量超 1.2万只， 产品种类日趋多元，发行热度持续高涨。 从业绩表现来看，行业整体收获颇丰。截至2025年11月底， 私募排排网 有业绩展示的5116只产品，近1年平均收益为***%；策略层面，量化多 头、主观多 ...

以下文章来源于领航配置 ，作者莱卡 01 Beta1.0 最简单的资产分散 先问一个问题，宏观策略的Beta到底是什么？ 股票策略的Beta很容易理解，沪深300、中证500等等，但是宏观策略的Beta呢？它不是某个单一指数，而是横跨股债商等多类资产的配置组合，更 关键的是，这个组合的构建本身就牵扯到许多问题，配多少股票？要不要择时？权重如何调整？ 别急，我们一步步来。我们暂且将宏观策略的Beta定义为， 一个不需要择时、不需要预测的，大类资产分散配置组合 。 领航配置 . 应对 > 预测，帮认可分散配置理念的私募投资者做好资产配置。 当你打开一个宏观策略产品的持仓报告，可能会感到眼花缭乱，股票、债券、商品，可能还有各种衍生品和海外资产，这和股票基金完全不同。宏 观策略是不是就是一个大杂烩？搞这么复杂，它到底赚的是什么钱？ 为了真正地理解宏观策略，今天我们不想像教科书那样照本宣科，把一堆理论概念全部抛给你，而是尝试用一个公式来展开这一切： 宏观策略收益 = 系统红利 + 交易能力 。其中的系统红利即Beta，交易能力即Alpha。本篇文章先来尝试讲透宏观策略的Beta到底是什么，下一篇文章来讲透Alpha 又 ...

据私募排排网统计显示，百亿私募阵营中共有13只产品跻身"双十"名单，从策略偏好来看，主观多头策略占据了绝对主 流，在13只产品中拿下11席，显示了基金经理主动选股、深度挖掘价值的持久生命力；另外2只则为宏观策略产品，通过对 经济周期的把握获取收益。 年内私募投资波澜迭起，能穿越牛熊、为投资者创造长期丰厚回报的产品备受关注。私募排排网近期发布的私募基金"长跑 英雄榜"，聚焦成立满十年、近十年年化收益超10%的"双十"百亿私募产品。 风险提示：基金有风险，投资需谨慎。 | | 百亿私募"双十"产品一 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 产品简称 | 公司简称 | 产品策略 | 近10年 | 近10年 | | | | | 年化收益 | 累计收益 | | 希瓦小牛1号 | 海南布瓦 | 主观多头 | 22.71% | 674.31% | | 希瓦小牛5号 | 海南布瓦 | 主观多头 | 21.20% | 583.89% | | 进化论复合策略一号 | 进化论资产 | 主观多头 | 20.75% | 559.10% | | 泓湖稳健宏观对冲A类份额 | 泓湖私募 | 宏观 ...

Core Insights - Multi-asset strategy private equity products have gained popularity in 2023, with 1,400 products registered from January to October, second only to stock strategy products [1] - The appeal of multi-asset strategies is attributed to significant global asset price fluctuations expected in 2024-2025, evolving investor demands for risk-return matching, and the search for absolute returns by long-term funds [1][8] Performance Overview - As of November 14, multi-asset strategy products have an average annual return of 20.37%, ranking just below stock strategies, with a slightly higher Sharpe ratio and lower volatility and drawdown [2][3] - The performance metrics for various strategies are as follows: - Stock Strategy: 29.54% average return, 93.14% positive return ratio, 35.96% volatility [3] - Multi-Asset Strategy: 20.37% average return, 91.73% positive return ratio, 25.84% volatility [3] - Composite Fund: 18.98% average return, 96.34% positive return ratio, 39.15% volatility [3] - Futures and Options: 13.79% average return, 82.49% positive return ratio, 48.73% volatility [3] - Bond Strategy: 8.46% average return, 92.10% positive return ratio, 11.76% volatility [3] Sub-strategy Performance - Among sub-strategies, macro strategies outperform in average return, positive return ratio, and Sharpe ratio [4] - Macro Strategy: 25.09% average return, 97% positive return ratio, 25.48% volatility [5] - Composite Strategy: 21.14% average return, 90.93% positive return ratio, 1.63 Sharpe ratio [7] - Arbitrage Strategy: 8.87% average return, 89.95% positive return ratio, lowest volatility and drawdown [7] Market Dynamics - The macro strategy focuses on dynamic allocation across major asset classes based on global macroeconomic analysis [6] - Bridgewater's "All Weather Strategy" exemplifies macro strategies, aiming for stable performance across different economic environments [6] - Local macro strategy firms like Honghu and Banxia are emerging as key players in the market [7] Challenges and Considerations - Successfully implementing multi-asset strategies requires more than just combining different assets; it necessitates creating a synergistic portfolio [8] - The complexity of the Chinese market, with significant differences in Sharpe ratios and economic cycles, demands experienced management and a tailored methodology [8] - A robust IT system covering research, trading, risk control, and operations is essential for distinguishing the capabilities of multi-asset strategy private equity firms [8]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the significance of macro strategy private equity funds in the current investment landscape, highlighting their ability to dynamically balance multiple asset classes to manage risks and achieve returns in various market conditions [2][16]. Group 1: Characteristics of Macro Strategy Funds - Unlike single-market focused strategies, macro strategy funds operate like "multi-asset aircraft carriers," typically holding three to four core asset classes, including stocks, bonds, commodities, and currencies, with some managers extending to U.S. stocks, gold, overseas bonds, and futures [4][5]. - The underlying strategy involves systematic judgment on macroeconomic cycles, liquidity, inflation, and policy expectations, allowing for flexible asset allocation based on market conditions [5][6]. Group 2: Performance Analysis - The correlation analysis of the macro strategy index over the past three years reveals that its returns are primarily linked to risk assets, with a correlation of 0.71 with the A-share index, while showing low or negative correlations with commodities, bonds, and gold [9][12]. - The volatility contribution analysis indicates that stock indices contribute the most to the fund's volatility, while bonds and gold often help to stabilize overall risk during market fluctuations [12]. Group 3: Insights and Implications - The article concludes that volatility should not be viewed as risk but rather as an opportunity, as macro strategy funds can navigate through the asset volatility to seek returns [13][16]. - For investors, macro strategies serve as a long-term allocation tool that can act as a "stabilizer" and "volatility buffer," particularly in uncertain economic cycles, making them suitable as a core satellite investment [16].

Core Viewpoint - The macro strategy private equity funds have shown remarkable performance in 2023, with an average return of 24.91% in the first ten months, significantly surpassing previous years' performance [2]. Group 1: Performance Overview - The average return of macro strategy private equity funds from 2021 to 2024 is 13.90%, -9.20%, -4.18%, and 20.63% respectively, indicating a substantial improvement in 2023 [2]. - The top-performing macro strategy products in the 50 billion and above category achieved an average return of 20.15% in the first ten months of 2023 [4]. Group 2: Top Products by Size - In the 50 billion and above category, the top three macro strategy products are managed by Juki Investment, Yinye Investment, and Yuanxin Investment, all of which are large private equity firms [4][7]. - The leading product in the 20-50 billion category is managed by Luyuan Private Equity, with an average return of 27.27% [9][13]. - The top product in the 5-20 billion category is managed by Zhong'an Huifu, achieving a return of 26.55% [14][16]. - In the 0-5 billion category, Yize Investment, Jiali Asset, and Sanhua Asset are the top three, with an average return of 34.80% [17][20]. Group 3: Notable Fund Managers - Zhao Weihua, the investment director at Yuanxin Investment, has a decade of macro research and investment experience, contributing to the strong performance of the "Yuanxin Multi-Asset Strategy" [8]. - Li Bei from Banxia Investment is recognized as a pioneer in the domestic macro hedge fund sector, with the "Banxia Balanced Macro Hedge" product achieving impressive returns [8]. - Luyuan Private Equity's fund manager, Lu Wentao, emphasizes the long-term support for gold prices due to ongoing fiscal and monetary stimulus policies [13].

Group 1: Trust Product Issuance - In October, the issuance of trust products decreased by 15.87% month-on-month, totaling 1,124 products [1] - Securities investment trusts accounted for 78.02% of the total issuance, with a slight increase of 0.24 percentage points from September [1] - The scale proportion of securities investment trusts rose from 36.43% in September to 42.37% in October [1] Group 2: Performance of Securities Investment Products - The stock market showed mixed results in October, with the STAR 50 Index down by 5.33% while the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.85% [2] - Bond-type trusts saw an average return of 1.91% over the first ten months of the year, while stock-type trusts had an average return of 17.71%, down from 18.58% in the previous nine months [3] Group 3: Strategy Performance - Macro strategies continued to perform best with an average return of 25.89% over the first ten months, while stock strategies had an average return of 20.51% [5] - In October, stock strategies had a negative average return of -0.8%, with quantitative long strategies showing the highest average return of 34.67% [5] Group 4: Trust Company Performance - BaiRui Trust's bond-type trusts had the highest average return over the first ten months, while National Trust and Jilin Trust ranked lower [9] - Huaxin Trust's bond-type trusts improved their ranking due to a 1.39% average return in October [9] Group 5: Regulatory Developments - The National Financial Supervision Administration released a draft for the Asset Management Trust Management Measures, emphasizing the positioning of asset management trusts as private asset management products [13] - The draft prohibits channel business, fund pool business, and rigid payment, aiming to enhance the regulatory framework of the trust industry [13] Group 6: Industry Penalties - Zhongcheng Trust was fined 6.6 million yuan for various violations, highlighting ongoing regulatory scrutiny in the trust industry [14] - The penalties reflect a continued high-pressure regulatory environment focusing on business violations and poor management [14] Group 7: Industry Growth - The total asset management scale of the trust industry reached 32.43 trillion yuan as of June, marking a 9.7% increase from the previous year [15] - This milestone positions the trust industry as the third largest in the asset management sector, following insurance and public funds [15]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the performance divergence of macro strategy private equity funds in China between the first half and the second half of 2025, attributing this to changes in market sentiment and macro policy adjustments [2]. Group 1: Asset Class Performance and Driving Mechanisms - A-shares showed a modest increase of 2.76% in the first half of the year, influenced by economic slowdown and external risks, with defensive sectors being favored [3]. - In the second half, A-shares experienced a structural recovery as policies were implemented and the economy improved, leading to a shift towards aggressive allocations in technology and growth sectors [3]. - Hong Kong stocks performed strongly in the first half, with the Hang Seng Index rising approximately 20% due to foreign capital inflows and low valuation recovery, but faced a slowdown in the second half due to tightening global liquidity and economic concerns [3]. - U.S. stocks, represented by the S&P 500, saw a 5% increase in the first half, driven by large tech stocks, but faced volatility due to economic uncertainties and Fed policy expectations [7]. - The bond market experienced a yield increase early in the year due to revised expectations of monetary policy, but later saw support from improved economic fundamentals and a stable central bank stance [9]. - Gold maintained strong performance as a safe-haven asset in the first half, with prices nearing historical highs, and continued to rise in the second half amid concerns over U.S. policy uncertainty [11][12]. Group 2: Reasons for Performance Divergence in Macro Strategies - The initial slow performance of macro strategies in the first half was due to unclear policy signals and cautious investor sentiment, leading to stable or slightly declining net values [14]. - In the second half, as market signals confirmed potential rate peaks and liquidity improvements, macro strategies shifted to active positions, resulting in accelerated net value increases [14]. - Institutional funds typically enter the market after clear policy signals, contributing to the liquidity boost and asset price increases in the second half [14]. - A significant emotional shift occurred from "fear" to "expectation," allowing macro strategies to capture excess returns if they managed the timing effectively [15]. Group 3: Implications for Domestic Investors - Macro strategy funds are high-risk investments influenced by market style shifts and policy fluctuations, often facing drawdown risks during uncertain market conditions [16]. - Effective management of drawdowns and net value fluctuations in the first half indicates strong asset allocation strategies and risk management capabilities [16]. - Investors should focus on the risk management abilities of macro strategy funds, especially in uncertain market environments, rather than solely pursuing short-term high returns [16].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the challenges of timing investments in different asset classes and suggests that a macro strategy, which diversifies across multiple assets, can mitigate the need for precise timing [4][5][6]. Market Overview - The A-share market has been fluctuating between 3800 and 3900 points for the past two months, and after breaking through 4000 points, it faces a new directional choice [5]. - Investors are currently conflicted about whether to invest in stocks, fearing high prices, or in stable bonds, worrying about missing out on potential gains [5]. Asset Performance Analysis - Historical data indicates that no single asset class consistently outperforms; different asset classes have strong and weak years [7][9]. - Over the past decade, A-shares outperformed other assets only in 2019 and 2020, while U.S. stocks also faced significant downturns in 2022 [9]. - Bonds showed stability with good returns last year but faced some pullbacks this year, while commodities had a brief bull run in 2021 and 2022 but performed poorly in other years [10]. Asset Class Characteristics - The core returns of different asset classes are driven by distinct underlying logic: - Stocks benefit from corporate profit growth, performing well in a stable economic environment [12]. - Commodities gain from supply-demand imbalances and inflation, thriving during high inflation or economic overheating [12]. - Bonds rely on fixed interest and price appreciation from falling interest rates, excelling during economic slowdowns or deflationary expectations [12]. Timing and Strategy - Timing investments is crucial for achieving satisfactory returns in single asset investments, with two main objectives: trend following and identifying undervalued assets [13]. - Macro strategies, which are multi-asset in nature, do not require timing as they inherently balance risk across various asset classes [14]. - A well-structured macro strategy can capture both rising and undervalued assets, providing better safety margins and lower costs [15]. Long-term Performance of Strategies - Historical performance of private equity strategies shows that without timing, achieving ideal returns is challenging, often leading to significant volatility [17]. - In contrast, macro strategies tend to yield satisfactory returns regardless of the timing of entry, with relatively lower volatility and better holding experiences [17].