Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the past two months, geopolitical risks did not cause spill - over effects, and the main line was to maintain stable geopolitical conflicts. Bilateral trade negotiations and tariff issues were under market attention, and China - US economic and trade conflicts maintained a stable stance. Domestic policies showed changes, with the "anti - involution" policy framework moving from expectation to implementation and the fiscal policy showing stronger signals of marginal efforts [3]. - The global risk preference has been repaired, and risk assets generally rose. The US dollar remained weakly volatile, and the market structure changed. The sectors corresponding to "anti - involution" and "expanding domestic demand" in the commodity market were strong, and the pricing expectations for re - inflation and profit repair increased [8][9]. - In the next 1 - 2 months, continue to track geopolitical disturbances and the implementation of US multilateral tariffs and China - US tariff suspension. Domestic policies should be tracked for their hedging effects on the decline in external demand. For financial products, the macro - liquidity is expected to remain stable and positive, and for commodities, the impact of "anti - involution" policies on the market is increasing [11][12][14]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Outlook - **Macro Operation Characteristics**: Geopolitical conflicts remained stable, trade negotiations were under market attention, and domestic policies changed. The "anti - involution" policy was expected to be implemented, and the fiscal policy showed marginal efforts [3]. - **Characteristics of Major Asset Operations**: Since mid - June, global risk preference has been repaired, risk assets generally rose, the US dollar remained weakly volatile, and the market structure changed. The sectors related to "anti - involution" and "expanding domestic demand" in the commodity market were strong [8][9]. - **Future Outlook**: Track geopolitical disturbances, the implementation of US multilateral tariffs and China - US tariff suspension, and the hedging effects of domestic policies on external demand [11][12]. 2. Financial Products - **Stock Index**: In July, the A - share market performed well, with the growth style stronger than the value style. The implementation of the long - term assessment mechanism for insurance funds and "anti - involution" policies supported the market. In August, if there is incremental capital inflow, the performance of equity assets is worth looking forward to, and attention should be paid to sector rotation [23]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Since July, the bond market has been weak, and the yield curve has shown a "bear steepening" feature. In August, the yield of the 10 - year treasury bond may continue to fluctuate within a range, and a curve steepening strategy is recommended [24][25]. 3. Commodities - **Energy**: Oil prices are likely to be under pressure and fluctuate. The coal market may have a tail - end upward period, and the PG/ crude oil ratio is expected to be suppressed. The natural gas market may be weak during the replenishment season [18][27][29]. - **Chemicals**: Propylene futures lack unilateral opportunities in the short term. Styrene is expected to continue its weak consolidation pattern. A strategy of going long on glass and short on soda ash is recommended [31][33][34]. - **Non - ferrous Metals and Precious Metals**: Polysilicon may remain oscillating strongly in the short term, and lithium can be considered for long - position replenishment after a correction. Alumina may face a callback risk, and copper prices may face resistance at integer levels [37][39]. - **Black Metals**: Steel prices are expected to rise with fluctuations, and it is not recommended to chase the rise of iron ore at high prices. Coking coal may be strong in the short term but face valuation pressure in the medium term. Ferroalloys are expected to rise first and then fall with a rising bottom [41][42][43]. - **Agricultural Products**: For oils, it is recommended to go long on soybean and palm oils at low prices. Cotton is expected to oscillate at a high level [46][48].

Report Information - Report Date: July 18, 2025 [2] - Research Institution: Guangzhou Financial Holdings Futures Research Center [1] Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Views - A-shares and commodities continue to rise. In the medium term, the stock market fluctuates upward, and the bottom of commodities emerges [6]. - The dollar exchange rate rebounds this week, suppressing precious metals. However, in the medium term, the dollar's weakness is difficult to reverse, and gold oscillates and accumulates momentum [6]. - The economic data released this week shows that the GDP growth rate in the second quarter is better than expected, but the consumption growth rate in June declines, and investment has not yet exerted force [6]. - Non-ferrous metals are differentiated this week, with most experiencing corrections but overall remaining in a high-level oscillation [6]. - Black metals oscillate at a high level this week, but the rebound is not over [6]. - Nickel prices and stainless steel oscillate at a low level this week, and the market is still digesting inventory [6]. - Electrolytic aluminum operates at a high level, with the supply side providing strong support for prices [7]. - Alumina oscillates strongly in the short term and operates at a low level in the medium term [8]. - Aluminum alloy operates strongly in the short term and fluctuates within a range in the medium term [9]. - Finished steel prices oscillate strongly, and prices are expected to be strong from July to August [10]. Summaries by Category Macro Strategy - **Intraday View**: A-shares and commodities continue to rise; in the medium term, the stock market fluctuates upward, and the bottom of commodities emerges [6]. - **Reference Strategy**: Gold can be observed or a small amount of gold call options can be bought as the bottom position; hold the bought IO2509-C-3950; hold the sold CU2509-P-75000 position; hold RB2510 or HC2510 long positions or call options; reduce the protective put options while the nickel spot inventory decreases [6]. - **Core Logic**: The dollar rebounds this week, suppressing precious metals. However, in the medium term, factors such as the expanding fiscal deficit and debt, tariff shocks, and expectations of the Fed's interest rate cuts make the dollar's weakness difficult to reverse [6]. Electrolytic Aluminum - **Intraday View**: High-level operation, with the operating range of 20300 - 20600; in the medium term, high-level operation, with the operating range of 19200 - 21000 [7]. - **Reference Strategy**: Sell AL2508-P-19300 [7]. - **Core Logic**: The supply-side reform in 2017 set the upper limit of China's electrolytic aluminum production capacity at 45 million tons. As of May 2025, the operating capacity was 44.139 million tons, with limited room for capacity increase. The current inventory is at the lowest level in the same period in the past five years [7]. Alumina - **Intraday View**: Oscillate strongly, with the operating range of 3050 - 3200; in the medium term, operate at a low level, with the operating range of 2700 - 3500 [8]. - **Reference Strategy**: Observe [8]. - **Core Logic**: In 2025, 17 million tons of alumina production capacity will be put into operation, with obvious supply pressure. The improvement in the profitability of electrolytic aluminum is expected to drive an increase in alumina demand [8]. Aluminum Alloy - **Intraday View**: Operate strongly, with the operating range of 19800 - 20000; in the medium term, fluctuate within a range, with the operating range of 19000 - 20300 [9]. - **Reference Strategy**: Observe [9]. - **Core Logic**: The current inventory is at a high level within the year, and the general rise in non-ferrous metals boosts the price of aluminum alloy [9]. Finished Steel (RB, HC) - **Intraday View**: Prices oscillate strongly; from July to August, prices are expected to be strong [10]. - **Reference Strategy**: Continue to hold the bought in-the-money call options of rebar RB2510-C-3000; continue to hold the sold out-of-the-money put options of rebar RB2510-P-2900; short the out-of-the-money call options of rebar RB2510-C-3300 in the short term [10]. - **Core Logic**: The pressure on the raw material inventory of steel is expected to be marginally relieved after mid-July, which may support the prices of furnace materials and the production cost of steel to stabilize. The current explicit inventory of rebar and hot-rolled coil is low, and recent positive factors have boosted speculative sentiment [10].

Core Viewpoint - Macro strategy, based on macroeconomic analysis for asset allocation, has shown better investment performance during economic cycles, gaining increasing attention in recent years [2] Group 1: Macro Strategy Performance - In mature overseas markets, macro strategy is recognized as a core strategy for hedge funds, particularly excelling during market volatility, as exemplified by Bridgewater's Pure Alpha II, which rose approximately 11.3% in 2025 while the S&P 500 fell over 5% [2] - In the domestic market, macro strategy is still in its early stages but has been developing rapidly, with 131 macro strategy products showing performance in the last six months [2] - Although the average return for macro strategies was negative in May, the long-term performance is impressive, with an average return of 45.67% over the past three years, ranking fourth among all secondary strategies [2][3] Group 2: Performance Rankings - The top 20 macro strategy products in the last six months had a minimum return threshold of ***%, with an average return of ***% [4] - Notable products include "Luyuan Ruize Stable Growth" from Luyuan Private Equity, "Yize Global Macro No. 2" from Yize Investment, and "Duration Macro Multi-Strategy" from Duration Investment, which ranked in the top three [4][8] - Three products from billion-dollar private equity firms made the list, including "Honghu Stable Macro Hedge A" from Honghu Private Equity and "Lerui Stock-Bond Rotation No. 1" from Lerui Asset [4] Group 3: Yearly and Three-Year Performance - The top 20 macro strategy products over the past year had a minimum return threshold of ***%, with the top three being "Shenzhen Shanzhe Private Equity," "Duration Investment," and "Luyuan Private Equity" [9][13] - Over the past three years, the top 20 macro strategy products had a minimum return threshold of ***%, with "Luyuan Ruize Stable Growth" again leading the list [15][19] - The consistent performance of "Luyuan Ruize Stable Growth" across both six-month and three-year periods highlights its strong investment strategy [15]

Market Overview - After a rapid rise in the A-share market by the end of September 2024, the market has maintained a relatively high level of volatility over the past six months, with most major indices showing a decline [2] - The A-share indices mostly experienced a drop, with the small-cap index, CSI 2000, showing relative strength, while the Shanghai Composite Index barely closed in the green due to support from the banking sector [2] - The Hong Kong stock market performed relatively well due to cheaper valuations compared to A-shares and significant foreign capital inflows, while the US stock market saw slight declines due to high positioning and external shocks [2] Performance Summary - A-share indices performance over the past six months includes: - Shanghai Composite Index: +0.63% - Shenzhen Component Index: -5.38% - ChiNext Index: -10.38% - CSI 300: -1.95% - CSI 500: -3.09% - CSI 1000: -2.63% - CSI 2000: +2.92% - Hong Kong indices showed significant gains: - Hang Seng Index: +19.90% - Hang Seng Tech Index: +18.76% - US indices experienced slight declines: - Dow Jones Industrial Average: +5.88% - S&P 500: -2.00% - Nasdaq: -0.54% [4] Private Equity Fund Performance - Among the 507 private equity products with performance data available, the average return over the past six months was approximately 6.22%, while the average return over the past year was about 21.10% [5] - Equity strategy products accounted for over 80% of the total, with an average return of 6.57%, outperforming major A-share indices [5] - Quantitative long-only products showed an average return of over 11%, leading other strategy products, while macro strategy products followed closely with returns exceeding 9% [5] Top Performing Products - The top 10 quantitative long-only products significantly outperformed the A-share indices, with the leading product being "Longqi Stock Quantitative Long No. 1" managed by Longqi Technology, achieving near ***% returns over the past six months [7][9] - The top 10 subjective long-only products had an average return of 1.07% over the past six months, with "Rido Investment" leading the pack [10][14] - The top 10 multi-asset strategy products included "Honghu Stable Macro Hedge A Class" managed by Liang Wentao, which is the largest product by scale among the top performers [22][24] Investment Insights - Wang Wen from Rido Investment believes that the A-share market has completed its bottoming process and is entering a historical opportunity for value re-evaluation, predicting a significant upward trend [14][16] - The investment strategy focuses on five dimensions: low valuation, high cash flow, high dividends, industry growth, and positive fundamental changes, with a particular interest in the entertainment and financial sectors [16]

Core Viewpoint - The macro strategy is expected to perform well this week, with a recovery in various asset classes, including Chinese equities, bonds, gold, and oil, indicating a favorable environment for macro strategies [3]. Macro Strategy - The macro strategy is anticipated to show improvement, benefiting from the recent rise in Chinese equities and bonds, as well as overseas assets [3]. - The macro strategy faced challenges in the first half of the year due to the unpredictable nature of Trump's policies, which disrupted the typical low correlation among major asset classes [3]. - Recent trends suggest a return to deep negative correlation among major assets, indicating a more favorable environment for macro strategies moving forward [3]. Quantitative Long Strategy - The quantitative long strategy is expected to yield absolute returns, with stable excess returns due to increased trading volume, surpassing 1 trillion in daily transactions [5]. - Over 50% of stocks are showing upward movement, and market volatility remains within a normal range, supporting alpha generation for quantitative strategies [5]. - However, there is a caution regarding small-cap valuations, which are at a three-year high, indicating potential pullback risks [5]. Subjective Long Strategy - The subjective long strategy is projected to perform well, particularly in growth styles, with some differentiation in specific returns [7]. - The overall market is experiencing a steady upward trend, with positive PMI data and a preference for growth over value stocks [7]. - Continued net inflows from southbound capital are noted, with the Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng Tech performing well, despite high PB valuations [7]. Market Neutral Strategy - The market neutral strategy is expected to remain stable, with consistent excess returns in the equity segment and no significant impact from the hedging side [9]. Stock Index CTA - The stock index CTA strategy is anticipated to perform well in both intraday and daily strategies, with differentiation among products due to signal cycles [12]. Commodity Strategy - The commodity strategy is expected to show a reversal in performance, with mixed results across different segments, particularly in precious metals [15]. - The commodity sector has seen a general upward trend, although volatility remains present, posing challenges for previously dominant short positions [15]. Arbitrage Strategy - The arbitrage strategy, including ETF and options arbitrage, is expected to see slight gains, while commodity arbitrage remains stable [17]. - The ETF market has experienced a slight increase in trading volume, indicating a favorable trend for overall strategy performance [17].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the performance of macro strategy private equity funds, highlighting their ability to adapt to different economic environments and their superior returns compared to traditional investment strategies [2][3]. Summary by Sections Macro Strategy Overview - Macro strategy involves asset managers making investment decisions based on macroeconomic cycle predictions, allowing for flexibility across various asset classes such as stocks, bonds, currencies, and commodities [2]. - This strategy can capture asset rotation opportunities in different economic conditions, such as increasing investments in commodities like gold during inflation [2]. Performance Data - According to data from "Private Equity排排网," 144 macro strategy products have achieved an average return of 5% this year, surpassing the market average of 2.52% [2]. - Among these products, 135 have reported positive returns, resulting in a high positive return rate of 93.75% [2]. Comparative Performance of Strategies - The following table summarizes the performance of various secondary strategies for the year: - Quantitative Long: 652 products, 6.42% average return - Subjective CTA: 168 products, 5.96% average return - Macro Strategy: 144 products, 5.00% average return - Convertible Bond Trading: 101 products, 4.17% average return - Composite Strategy: 356 products, 4.16% average return [3]. Top Performing Macro Strategy Funds - The article lists the top 20 macro strategy funds based on their performance over the past six months, one year, and three years, showcasing both large and smaller private equity firms [4][7][12]. - Notable funds include "泓湖稳健宏观对冲A类份额" and "路远睿泽稳增," which have demonstrated strong returns and are recognized for their effective macro strategy research and quantitative models [11][16]. Conclusion - The macro strategy private equity funds have shown resilience and adaptability in the current economic landscape, with a significant number of funds outperforming traditional benchmarks [2][3].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the growth and achievements of Kaifeng Investment, highlighting its status as a leading macro-strategy asset management company in China with nearly 10 billion in assets under management [2][5] - Kaifeng Investment was established in 2012 and has offices in Shenzhen, Shanghai, and Hong Kong, focusing on multi-asset, multi-market, and multi-tool investment strategies to achieve sustainable long-term returns for clients [2][5] - The company has received over a hundred industry awards, including the Golden Bull Award and the Golden Sunshine Award, showcasing its recognition in the asset management industry [2][5] Group 2 - The development history of Kaifeng Investment includes significant milestones such as becoming a special member of the China Securities Investment Fund Industry Association in 2013 and entering the hundred billion private equity camp in 2018 [7][8] - The core team consists of nearly 40 research and investment professionals with an average of over 15 years of experience, emphasizing the importance of talent acquisition and team building [9][22] - The company has established a strong research advantage by integrating macroeconomic analysis, industry chain details, and quantitative methods to enhance its investment strategies [19][21] Group 3 - Kaifeng Investment's macro strategy focuses on identifying mispricing in financial assets based on macroeconomic principles, investing in various asset classes including foreign exchange, stocks, bonds, and futures [23][24] - The company employs a bond enhancement strategy that combines fixed-income assets with futures and derivatives, aiming to manage interest rate and credit risks effectively [25][26] - The quantitative CTA strategy utilizes statistical and mathematical methods to analyze market data, supporting overall macro research and investment strategy formulation [29][30] Group 4 - Kaifeng Investment has received numerous accolades, including the Golden Bull Award for Best Private Fund Management Company and recognition as one of the top 50 private fund companies in China [33][34] - The company continues to expand its product offerings and enhance its investment performance, with a focus on achieving high returns while managing risks effectively [35][37]

券商中国记者今日获悉，东北证券首席经济学家付鹏因身体原因，已从东北证券离职，不再担任东北证券任何职 务。 公开信息显示，付鹏自2020年2月21日起，出任东北证券首席经济学家职务。目前，中国证券业协会网站从业人员平 台已无付鹏信息，仅有其他券商一名同名之人。 "目前暂时没有下一站的考虑，刚做完手术，先恢复身体。"付鹏向券商中国记者表示。 资料显示，付鹏拥有横跨国际与国内金融市场的复合型经历，他于2004年加入雷曼兄弟，后又任职于伦敦所罗门国 际投资集团。回国后曾任中期集团首席宏观策略分析师、银河期货研究中心副主任等职，在宏观策略、资产配置等 领域具有较高影响力。 据悉，去年11月，付鹏因在朋友圈"炮轰"汇丰造谣相关情况，引发市场关注。其在微信朋友圈中发文表示，一场由 汇丰主办的活动因汇丰自身方面原因取消，但相关工作人员却向客户造谣，称活动被取消的原因是，"因付鹏被监管 约谈。"对此，付鹏表达了强烈不满。彼时，东北证券相关负责人也回应称，"付鹏近期并没有被监管约谈的情况。" 2025年第一季度，东北证券营业总收入14.85亿元，同比增长25.94%；归属于上市公司股东的净利润2.02亿元，同比 增长859.84 ...