China Futures Daily Note 中国期货每日简报 桂晨曦 Gui Chenxi 从业资格号 Qualification No：F3023159 投资咨询号 Consulting No.：Z0013632 CITIC Futures International Service Platform：https://internationalservice.citicsf.com Investment consulting business qualification：CSRC License [2012] No. 669 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669 号 中 信 期 货 国 际 化 研 究 | 中 信 期 货 研 究 所 International 2024-10-09 中信期货国际化研究 | CITIC Futures International Research 2026/01/09 摘要 Abstract Macro News: MFA stated that the US side's arbitrary seizure of other countries' vessel ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment ratings were provided in the report. Core Viewpoints of the Report - A-share market is expected to continue its upward trend in the short term and may rise further in 2026 compared to 2025, supported by macro policies, inflation, capital market reforms, and the role of Central Huijin [1]. - The bond market is favored by asset shortages and weak economic conditions, but the central bank has recently warned of interest rate risks [1]. - Metal prices are influenced by factors such as supply disruptions, macro sentiment, and cost changes. Some metals are expected to have upward trends, while others may experience volatility or are subject to supply concerns [1]. - Energy and chemical product prices are affected by factors such as geopolitical conflicts, supply and demand, and cost support. Some products are expected to have upward trends, while others may experience volatility [1]. - Agricultural product prices are influenced by factors such as seasonal changes, policy support, and supply and demand. Some products are expected to have upward trends, while others may experience volatility [1]. Summary by Category A-shares - A-share market has continuous trading volume increase. Short-term, the index is expected to remain strong. In 2026, the index may continue to rise on the basis of 2025, supported by macro policies, inflation, capital market reforms, and Central Huijin [1]. Bonds - Asset shortages and weak economic conditions are favorable for bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest rate risks. Attention should be paid to the Bank of Japan's interest rate decision [1]. Metals - Copper: Supply disruptions and improved macro sentiment have led to a rise in copper prices, and the upward trend is expected to continue [1]. - Aluminum: Domestic electrolytic aluminum has accumulated inventory, but macro sentiment is positive, and global aluminum ingot supply is expected to tighten, leading to a strong aluminum price [1]. - Alumina: Supply has significant release potential, putting pressure on prices. However, the current price is close to the cost line, and the price is expected to oscillate [1]. - Zinc: Fundamentals have improved, and the cost center has shifted upward. With positive macro sentiment, zinc prices have risen, but the upside space is limited due to fundamental pressure [1]. - Nickel: Supply concerns have led to a significant increase in nickel prices and an increase in positions. The short-term price may be strongly oscillating, but high risks and volatility are present at high price levels. Attention should be paid to Indonesian policies and macro sentiment [1]. Industrial and Energy Chemicals - Polycrystalline silicon: Northwest production has increased, while southwest production has decreased. December production schedules for polycrystalline silicon and organic silicon have declined [1]. - Carbonate lithium: It is the traditional peak season for new energy vehicles, with strong energy storage demand and increased supply from restarts. Prices have risen rapidly in the short term [1]. - Rebar and hot-rolled coil: Futures-spot arbitrage positions can be rolled for profit-taking. The price valuation is not high, and short-selling is not recommended [1]. - Iron ore: Near-term contracts are restricted by production cuts, but the commodity sentiment is positive, and there is still an upward opportunity for far-term contracts [1]. - Silicone and ferrosilicon: There is a combination of weak reality and strong expectations. In the short term, expectations dominate, and energy consumption control and anti-involution may disrupt supply [1]. - Soda ash: The market sentiment has improved, and the supply and demand are supportive. The price is low and expected to be strong in the short term [1]. - Coking coal and coke: If the "capacity reduction" expectation continues to ferment and there is pre-holiday restocking of spot goods, there may still be room for price increases, but the actual increase is difficult to judge, and volatility increases after a significant rise [1]. Agricultural Products - Palm oil: The December MPOB data is expected to be bearish, but the price is expected to reverse under themes such as seasonal production cuts, the B50 policy, and US biofuels. Short-term rebounds due to macro sentiment should be watched out for [1]. - Soybean oil: The fundamentals are strong, and it is recommended to be overweight in the oil market. Consider the spread between soybean oil and palm oil [1]. - Cotton: There is support but no driving force in the short term. Future attention should be paid to the central government's No. 1 document in the first quarter of next year, planting area intentions, weather during the planting period, and peak season demand [1]. - Sugar: There is a global surplus and increased domestic supply. The short side consensus is strong. If the price continues to fall, there is strong cost support, but there is a lack of continuous driving force in the short term [1]. - Corn: With the release of reserve and imported grains, the supply has increased. The spot price is expected to be firm in the short term, and the futures price will oscillate within a range [1]. - Pulp: The 05 contract is expected to oscillate between 5400 - 5700 yuan/ton due to the tug-of-war between "strong supply" and "weak demand" [1]. - Logs: The spot price has shown signs of bottoming out and rebounding, and the downward space for the futures price is limited. However, the January overseas quotation has slightly declined, and there is a lack of upward driving factors. The price is expected to oscillate between 760 - 790 yuan/m³ [1]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude oil: OPEC+ has suspended production increases until the end of 2026. The uncertainty of the Russia-Ukraine peace agreement and US sanctions on Venezuelan oil exports have an impact [1]. - Fuel oil: Follows the trend of crude oil in the short term, with no prominent supply-demand contradictions [1]. - Asphalt: The "14th Five-Year Plan" rush demand is likely to be disproven, and the supply of Ma Rui crude oil is sufficient. The profit margin is high [1]. - Natural rubber: The raw material cost provides strong support, the futures-spot price difference has rebounded significantly, and the midstream inventory has increased substantially [1]. - BR rubber: The upward momentum has slowed down, the spot price has led the recovery of the basis, and the processing profit has narrowed. There are positive factors for future domestic butadiene exports [1]. - PTA: The PX market has experienced a sharp rise, and the PTA market is expected to remain tight in 2026. Domestic PTA maintains high production, and the gasoline spread provides support for aromatics [1]. - Ethylene glycol: Two MEG plants in Taiwan, China, plan to shut down next month. The price has rebounded rapidly due to supply-side news, and the downstream demand is slightly better than expected [1]. - Styrene: The Asian market is stable, with suppliers reluctant to cut prices due to losses and buyers pressing for lower prices due to weak downstream demand. The market is in a weak balance, and the upward momentum depends on overseas markets [1]. - Urea: The export sentiment has eased, and the upside space is limited due to insufficient domestic demand. There is support from anti-involution and the cost side [1]. - PE: There is a risk of rising crude oil prices due to geopolitical conflicts. The supply pressure is high, and the market expectation is weak due to planned production increases in 2026 [1]. - PP: The supply pressure is high, and the downstream improvement is less than expected. The cost is supported by high propylene monomer and crude oil prices [1]. - PVC: The global production is expected to be low in 2026, but the current supply pressure is rising. The demand is weak, and the implementation of differential electricity prices in the northwest may force the clearance of PVC production capacity [1]. - LPG: The January CP has risen unexpectedly, and the import cost provides strong support. Geopolitical conflicts have increased the risk premium. The inventory accumulation trend has slowed down, and the domestic port inventory is decreasing. The long-term demand for LPG is expected to increase [1]. Aviation - It is expected to peak in mid-January. Airlines are still cautious about trial resumptions [1].

| 钢材产业期现日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 2025年12月16日 | | | 問敏波 | Z0010559 | | | 钢材价格及价差 | | | | | | | 品种 | 现值 | 前值 | 涨跌 | 基差 | 单位 | | 螺纹钢现货(华东) | 3270 | 3270 | 0 | 187 | | | 螺纹钢现货(华北) | 3150 | 3150 | O | 67 | | | 螺纹钢现货(华南) | 3260 | 3250 | 10 | 177 | | | 螺纹钢05合约 | 3074 | 3060 | 14 | 196 | | | 螺纹钢10合约 | 3103 | 3093 | 10 | 167 | | | 螺纹钢01合约 | 3083 | 3082 | 1 | 187 | | | 热卷现货(华东) | 3240 | 3240 | O | 2 | 元/吨 | | 热卷现货(华北) | 3170 | 3170 | O | -68 | | | 热卷现货(华南) | 326 ...

本周，日本央行行长上田和夫明确表示，日本央行将在12月的政策会议上综合评估加息的利弊，这是迄今位置最明确的加息信号。他在随后的新闻发布会上 也指出，一旦利率上调至0.75%，央行将进一步阐释未来加息路径，同时12月的政策决策也将考虑工资及其他经济数据。 道明证券（TD Securities)的外汇策略主管Jayati Bharadwaj称："日本央行似乎对加息表现出更大的舒适度。我们预计他们将在12月实际加息，这也让我们更 接近此前的判断，同时提振了日元。" 10月通胀走高，为央行加息提供支撑 根据日本在11月份公布的最新数据，日本在10月的核心通胀率高达3%。为今年7月以来的最大涨幅。剔除生鲜食品和能源的核心通胀率则上升至3.1%，环比 上扬0.1%。 在通胀数据公布后，市场对日元波动的担忧就不断积聚。日本高级官员多次发声，表达对汇率快速单边波动的关注。日本财政大臣片山皋月表示，近期日元 市场出现"单边且急剧"的波动，不排除可能采取干预措施。数据显示，截至11月，美元兑日元汇率已累计上涨约2.19%，过去半年内累计上涨9.52%。 作为全球最后的超级宽松政策提供者，日本金融环境的收紧来得比市场预期更快、更猛 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The stock index futures market rebounded significantly last week, with different industries contributing to the gains of various indices. The trading volume of each variety decreased month - on - month, and the basis weakened. It is recommended to pay attention to the inter - period positive arbitrage opportunities, and the roll - over strategy recommends going long on the near - term contract and short on the far - term contract. The cross - variety arbitrage time - series synthetic strategy's net value remained flat last week, and new signals were given. The daily timing strategy generally made profits last week, but the new signals of the timing model showed a significant increase in the degree of bearishness [3][4][5][6][7]. - In the bond futures market, the IRR of bond futures decreased this week, the basis strengthened, and the inter - period spread fluctuated weakly. Attention can be paid to the positive arbitrage space caused by the slight expansion of the inter - period spread. The daily timing strategy signals were mainly long last week, and the interest rate timing signals predicted an upward trend in interest rates [42][43][44]. - In the commodity market, last week, the commodity market generally had more gains than losses. The momentum and term - structure factors performed well, and the volume - price trend and some value - based factors had the largest increase. There may be a risk of factor return retracement in the short term, but the long - term performance of commodity factors is still optimistic. Different tracking strategies have different performance indicators [57][58]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Stock Index Futures 3.1.1 Market Review - The market rebounded significantly last week. Electronics and non - ferrous metals contributed to the main gains of the SSE 50; electronics and communications contributed to the main gains of the CSI 300; electronics and power equipment contributed to the main gains of the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 [3]. - The trading volume of each variety decreased month - on - month, and the basis weakened. IF maintained a shallow discount, while IC and IM maintained a deep discount [4]. 3.1.2 Basis Strategy Recommendation - The basis of each variety weakened. It is expected that the deep discount pattern of IC and IM will continue. It is recommended to pay attention to the inter - period positive arbitrage opportunities, and the roll - over strategy recommends going long on the near - term contract and short on the far - term contract [4]. 3.1.3 Arbitrage Strategy Tracking - In the inter - period arbitrage strategy, the net value of each strategy generally made profits last week. The annualized basis rate, positive arbitrage, and momentum factor made profits of 0.4%, 0.1%, and 0% (6 - times leverage) respectively. The annualized basis rate factor turned to a positive arbitrage signal [5]. - The cross - variety arbitrage time - series synthetic strategy's net value remained flat last week. The new cross - variety signals recommend a 50% position to go long on IF and short on IC, and a 100% position to go long on IM and short on IC [6]. 3.1.4 Timing Strategy Tracking - The daily timing strategy generally made profits last week. The SSE 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 had losses of 1.0%, 0.4%, and profits of 1.0%, 0.6% respectively. The new signals of the timing model showed a significant increase in the degree of bearishness, and the model was bearish on the SSE 50, CSI 300, and CSI 500 [7]. 3.2 Bond Futures 3.2.1 Basis and Inter - period Spread - The IRR of bond futures decreased this week, the basis strengthened, and the inter - period spread fluctuated weakly. Attention can be paid to the positive arbitrage space caused by the slight expansion of the inter - period spread [42]. 3.2.2 Unilateral Strategy - The bond futures market fluctuated last week. The daily timing strategy signals were mainly long. The main bullish factors included the basis, intraday volume - price, and high - frequency capital flow, while the main bearish factors included daily technicals and member positions [43]. 3.2.3 Interest Rate Timing Signal - The interest rate timing signals predicted an upward trend in interest rates, with a relatively high proportion of long positions in the production factor and inventory factor [44]. 3.3 Commodity Market 3.3.1 Commodity Factor Performance - Last week, the commodity market generally had more gains than losses. Glass, polysilicon, methanol, and silver had significant increases, while coking coal had a significant decline. The momentum and term - structure factors performed well, and the volume - price trend and some value - based factors had an average increase of more than 0.5%. The warehouse - receipt factors also increased slightly, while other factors decreased slightly. There may be a risk of factor return retracement in the short term, but the long - term performance of commodity factors is still optimistic [57]. 3.3.2 Tracking Strategy Performance - Different tracking strategies have different performance indicators. For example, the CWFT strategy has an annualized return of 9.4%, a Sharpe ratio of 1.62, a Calmar ratio of 1.07, a maximum drawdown of - 8.81%, a recent one - week return of 0.11%, and a year - to - date return of 4.53% [58].

Core Insights - Multi-asset strategy private equity products have gained popularity in 2023, with 1,400 products registered from January to October, second only to stock strategy products [1] - The appeal of multi-asset strategies is attributed to significant global asset price fluctuations expected in 2024-2025, evolving investor demands for risk-return matching, and the search for absolute returns by long-term funds [1][8] Performance Overview - As of November 14, multi-asset strategy products have an average annual return of 20.37%, ranking just below stock strategies, with a slightly higher Sharpe ratio and lower volatility and drawdown [2][3] - The performance metrics for various strategies are as follows: - Stock Strategy: 29.54% average return, 93.14% positive return ratio, 35.96% volatility [3] - Multi-Asset Strategy: 20.37% average return, 91.73% positive return ratio, 25.84% volatility [3] - Composite Fund: 18.98% average return, 96.34% positive return ratio, 39.15% volatility [3] - Futures and Options: 13.79% average return, 82.49% positive return ratio, 48.73% volatility [3] - Bond Strategy: 8.46% average return, 92.10% positive return ratio, 11.76% volatility [3] Sub-strategy Performance - Among sub-strategies, macro strategies outperform in average return, positive return ratio, and Sharpe ratio [4] - Macro Strategy: 25.09% average return, 97% positive return ratio, 25.48% volatility [5] - Composite Strategy: 21.14% average return, 90.93% positive return ratio, 1.63 Sharpe ratio [7] - Arbitrage Strategy: 8.87% average return, 89.95% positive return ratio, lowest volatility and drawdown [7] Market Dynamics - The macro strategy focuses on dynamic allocation across major asset classes based on global macroeconomic analysis [6] - Bridgewater's "All Weather Strategy" exemplifies macro strategies, aiming for stable performance across different economic environments [6] - Local macro strategy firms like Honghu and Banxia are emerging as key players in the market [7] Challenges and Considerations - Successfully implementing multi-asset strategies requires more than just combining different assets; it necessitates creating a synergistic portfolio [8] - The complexity of the Chinese market, with significant differences in Sharpe ratios and economic cycles, demands experienced management and a tailored methodology [8] - A robust IT system covering research, trading, risk control, and operations is essential for distinguishing the capabilities of multi-asset strategy private equity firms [8]

专题报告 2025 年 11 月 27 日 铂钯期货上市首日交易策略 核心观点及策略 套利策略：多铂空钯 ⚫ 短期策略：铂钯均可开盘做多 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 从业资格号：F03099478 王工建 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 从业资格号：F03120615 投资咨询号：Z0022965 焦鹏飞 从业资格号：F03122184 投资咨询号：Z0023260 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1 / 8 投资咨询号：Z0017785 何天 ⚫ 铂、钯期货上市之后，铂钯将有了"中国价格"，以人民 币计价的铂、钯期货合约消除了企业的汇率风险敞口，合 约的交割设计也更贴合国内产业特点，首次提出了海绵 状、粉状以及锭状产品三种形态交割，为工业用户提高了 套保效率；期权也提供了更灵活的风险管理工具，企业可 以在锁定最大损失的同时保留收益空间。 ⚫ 铂钯供应均高度集中 ...

热点报告—铂钯 smingfTable_Title] 铂钯上市系列专题三： 铂/钯期货正式合约解读及上市初期策略推荐 [★Ta铂bl/e钯_S近um期m行ar情y] 分析和展望 25 年铂钯价格的大涨驱动主要来自宏观面支撑和现货实际紧缺。 前者在于低估值贵金属、以及潜在的对黄金在实际需求和避险需 求上的替代效应；后者则是美国政策担忧引发囤货现象。价格趋 势而言，今年铂钯首轮上涨受自身基本面带动更多，第二轮上涨 则很大程度上是跟随贵金属，宏观和基本面交织定价。 有 宏观面中长期偏多，而短期震荡整理。中长期流动性释放与避险 属性依然构成利好，但短期因美联储政策博弈而陷入震荡。12 月降息预期、联储提名等事件存在博弈可能，宏观面迅速转弱的 可能性不大，但年内也较难看到创新高的驱动。 色 金 属 基本面边际趋松，但仍有博弈空间。2026 年供需缺口预计收窄， 但汽车领域铂代钯、珠宝与电子需求提供支撑。在不考虑投资需 求的背景下甚至可能转为紧平衡，2026 年钯金供需过剩幅度预计 扩大，主要受汽车需求被电车挤占拖累。 美国关税政策或是近阶段最重要的变量。美国关税政策是最大不 确定性。政策落地前，期现将形成正循环支撑价格 ...

Report Information - Report Title: Treasury Bond Monthly Report [1] - Date: November 3, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Macro Financial Research Team [4] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - With the clearing of negatives such as the A - share market re - entering a high - volatility range and the passing of the fastest economic growth stage, and the emergence of positives like the central bank's restart of treasury bond trading, the bond market stabilized and strengthened in October. In November, the bond market environment has improved, and it has entered a stage of accumulating positives. If there are phased disturbances leading to market over - adjustment, it is recommended to actively seize allocation opportunities [9][62]. - The recommended arbitrage strategies include: for the cash - and - carry strategy, there are positive arbitrage opportunities and reverse arbitrage should be participated in cautiously; for the basis strategy, focus on shorting the contract basis; for the inter - delivery strategy, focus on shorting the current - quarter contract and going long on the next - quarter contract; for the inter - variety strategy, recommend the flattening strategy [8]. Summary by Directory 1. October Market Review (1) Domestic Bond Market - In October, treasury bond futures fluctuated and strengthened, mainly stimulated by the resurgence of Sino - US trade disputes and the central bank's restart of treasury bond trading. The 10 - year treasury bond yield fell to below 1.7944% at the end of the month, down 6.72bp from the beginning of the month. Treasury bond futures of all varieties closed up, with the 5 - year treasury bond futures having a relatively smaller increase after duration adjustment. The yield curve showed a bull - flattening feature, and the basis of treasury bond futures further narrowed [11][13][18]. (2) Overseas Market - In October, US Treasury yields first declined and then rose, with a slight decline for the whole month. The US federal government shutdown at the beginning of the month triggered a US dollar credit crisis, leading to the selling of US Treasuries and an increase in yields. Later, the resurgence of Sino - US trade frictions and weak employment data led to a decline in yields. At the end of the month, Powell's hawkish signal caused yields to rebound [20]. (3) Funding Situation - In October, although it was a tax - payment month, the government bond payment pressure was not large. The central bank continued to actively inject funds and announced the restart of treasury bond trading. Inter - bank liquidity was stable and loose, and funding rates fluctuated within a narrow range. DR007 basically fluctuated around 1.4 - 1.43%, and the 1 - year inter - bank certificate of deposit basically remained around 1.67% and further dropped to around 1.64% at the end of the month [24]. 2. Bond Market Environment Analysis (1) Fundamental Situation - Domestic economic indicators have been weakening since June. In the third quarter, GDP grew by 4.8% year - on - year as expected. Exports and consumption were the main supports, while investment demand was the main drag. In October, manufacturing PMI declined seasonally, non - manufacturing PMI improved slightly, and high - frequency indicators showed that the economy continued to repair weakly [31][45][50]. (2) Policy Aspect - In October, both fiscal and monetary policies were strengthened. The government allocated 500 billion yuan from the local government debt balance limit to support projects. The central bank announced the resumption of treasury bond trading in the open market, which is a direct liquidity injection in the short term, but in the long term, there is potential pressure on the bond market if the fiscal tools drive economic improvement [57]. (3) Funding Aspect - In November, the main pressure on the funding side lies in government bond issuance and payment. Although there are large - scale maturities in the open market, the central bank is expected to continue to actively inject funds, and the liquidity pressure should be controllable [58][61]. 3. Next - Month Market Outlook (1) Market Logic and Outlook - The negatives in the bond market have basically been released, and in November, it enters a stage of accumulating positives. However, there are still uncertain disturbances such as the official release of the new regulations on fund sales fees, the stock - bond seesaw effect, and the unexpected increase in government bond supply [62]. (2) Arbitrage Strategy Outlook - Cash - and - carry Strategy: There are positive arbitrage opportunities, and reverse arbitrage should be participated in cautiously. - Basis Strategy: Focus on shorting the contract basis. - Inter - delivery Strategy: Focus on shorting the current - quarter contract and going long on the next - quarter contract. - Inter - variety Strategy: Recommend the flattening strategy [8][64][66].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings were provided in the reports [1][4][6] 2. Core Views Steel Industry - Post - holiday apparent demand for steel has recovered, but there was significant pre - holiday slab inventory accumulation, requiring steel mills to cut production to ease inventory pressure. The price decline has factored in most of the oversupply expectations. The cost of carbon elements on the cost side is supported, while the cost of iron elements may decline due to the expected drop in hot metal. Steel prices have fallen significantly, compressing steel mill profits. Unilateral positions should be on hold. The January contracts for rebar and hot - rolled coils are expected to stabilize around 3000 and 3200 yuan respectively and enter a sideways consolidation phase. Consider a long - carbon and short - iron arbitrage, specifically a long - coking coal and short - hot - rolled coil strategy. The spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar is expected to continue to narrow [1] Iron Ore Industry - Last week, iron ore futures continued to decline in a sideways pattern. On the supply side, the global iron ore shipment volume decreased week - on - week, while the arrival volume at 45 ports increased. Based on recent shipment data, the average future arrival volume is expected to decline. On the demand side, the steel mill profit margin slightly decreased, hot metal production dropped from its peak, and the steel mill restocking demand weakened. The iron ore market is shifting from a state of tight balance to oversupply, and weak finished product prices are dragging down raw materials. Unilateral positions should be on hold, with a reference range of 730 - 800. An arbitrage strategy of long - coking coal and short - iron ore is recommended, and consider buying out - of - the - money put options on Iron Ore 2601 at high prices [4] Coke and Coking Coal Industry - Last week, coke futures rose in a sideways pattern. Recently, the spot and futures markets have not been in sync, with port trade quotes rebounding, and on the 17th, major coking enterprises proposed a second price increase. The coking industry's price adjustment lags behind that of coking coal, leading to losses and a decline in coking plant operations. On the demand side, steel mill hot metal production has dropped from its peak, steel prices are weak, and steel mill profits are shrinking. The overall inventory is slightly lower than the mid - level, and it is a passive destocking by downstream. Speculative investors are advised to go long on Coke 2601 at low prices, with a reference range of 1650 - 1800, and consider a long - coking coal and short - coke arbitrage [6] - Last week, coking coal futures rose in a sideways pattern. The spot auction prices in Shanxi have recovered, and some coal types have significantly rebounded. The coking coal price shows signs of bottoming out. On the supply side, major coal - producing areas have resumed production after the holiday, but recent mine accidents have led to expectations of supply reduction. On the demand side, hot metal production has slightly declined, and coking plant operations have slightly decreased but remain at a relatively high level. The overall inventory is slightly lower than the mid - level, and downstream has started active restocking. Unilateral positions should be long on Coking Coal 2601 at low prices, with a reference range of 1150 - 1300, and consider a long - coking coal and short - coke arbitrage [6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel Industry Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar spot prices in East China, North China, and South China were 3200, 3110, and 3220 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of + 10, - 10, and - 10 yuan/ton. Hot - rolled coil spot prices in East China, North China, and South China were 3270, 3190, and 3220 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of - 10, 0, and - 10 yuan/ton [1] Cost and Profit - The billet price was 2920 yuan/ton with no change, and the slab price was 3730 yuan/ton with no change. The cost of electric - arc furnace rebar in Jiangsu decreased by 7 yuan/ton to 3300 yuan/ton, while the cost of converter rebar increased by 13 yuan/ton to 3153 yuan/ton. Profits in different regions and for different products showed various changes [1] Production - The daily average hot metal production was 240.9 tons, a decrease of 0.6 tons (- 0.3%). The production of five major steel products was 857.0 tons, a decrease of 6.4 tons (- 0.7%). Rebar production was 201.2 tons, a decrease of 2.2 tons (- 1.1%), with electric - arc furnace production increasing by 3.1 tons (13.5%) and converter production decreasing by 5.4 tons (- 3.0%). Hot - rolled coil production was 321.8 tons, a decrease of 1.5 tons (- 0.4%) [1] Inventory - The inventory of five major steel products was 1582.3 tons, a decrease of 18.5 tons (- 1.2%). Rebar inventory was 641.1 tons, a decrease of 18.6 tons (- 2.8%), and hot - rolled coil inventory was 419.2 tons, an increase of 6.3 tons (1.5%) [1] Transaction and Demand - The building materials trading volume was 9.5 tons, a decrease of 0.7 tons (- 6.7%). The apparent demand for five major steel products was 875.4 tons, an increase of 124.0 tons (16.5%). The apparent demand for rebar was 219.8 tons, an increase of 66.6 tons (43.5%), and the apparent demand for hot - rolled coils was 315.6 tons, an increase of 20.5 tons (7.0%) [1] Iron Ore Industry Price and Spread - The warehouse receipt costs of different iron ore powders showed slight changes. The basis of the 01 contract for different powders also changed, with the 5 - 9 spread increasing by 0.5 yuan/ton (2.4%), the 9 - 1 spread remaining unchanged, and the 1 - 5 spread decreasing by 0.5 yuan/ton (- 2.3%) [4] Supply - The arrival volume at 45 ports (weekly) was 3045.8 tons, an increase of 437.1 tons (16.8%). The global shipment volume (weekly) was 3207.5 tons, a decrease of 71.5 tons (- 2.2%). The national monthly import volume was 10522.5 tons, an increase of 61.5 tons (0.6%) [4] Demand - The average daily hot metal production of 247 steel mills (weekly) was 241.0 tons, a decrease of 0.6 tons (- 0.2%). The average daily port clearance volume at 45 ports (weekly) was 315.7 tons, a decrease of 20.7 tons (- 6.1%). The national monthly pig iron production was 6979.3 tons, a decrease of 100.5 tons (- 1.4%), and the national monthly crude steel production was 7736.9 tons, a decrease of 229.0 tons (- 2.9%) [4] Inventory - The inventory at 45 ports (weekly) was 14278.27 tons, an increase of 192.1 tons (1.4%). The imported iron ore inventory of 247 steel mills (weekly) was 8982.7 tons, a decrease of 63.5 tons (- 0.7%). The inventory available days of 64 steel mills (weekly) remained unchanged at 21 days [4] Coke and Coking Coal Industry Price and Spread - The prices of different types of coke and coking coal showed various changes. For example, the price of Shanxi quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke (warehouse receipt) remained unchanged at 1561 yuan/ton, while the price of Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke (warehouse receipt) decreased by 11 yuan/ton to 1603 yuan/ton. The basis and spreads of different contracts also changed [6] Supply - The daily average production of all - sample coking plants was 65.3 tons, a decrease of 0.8 tons (- 1.3%). The daily average production of 247 steel mills was 241.0 tons, a decrease of 0.6 tons (- 0.2%). The production of Fenwei sample coal mines increased, with raw coal production increasing by 18.2 tons (2.2%) and clean coal production increasing by 11.8 tons (2.8%) [6] Demand - The hot metal production of 247 steel mills was 241.0 tons, a decrease of 0.6 tons (- 0.2%). The demand for coke and coking coal is affected by steel mill production changes [6] Inventory - The total coke inventory was 891.9 tons, a decrease of 17.9 tons (- 2.0%). The coke inventory of all - sample coking plants decreased by 6.6 tons (- 10.3%), and the coke inventory of 247 steel mills decreased by 11.4 tons (- 1.7%). For coking coal, the inventory of Fenwei coal mine clean coal decreased by 11.0 tons (- 9.9%), while the inventory of all - sample coking plants increased by 38.3 tons (4.0%) [6]