铂钯周报 国泰君安期货研究所 有色及贵金属 刘雨萱 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 杨蕤（联系人）从业资格号：F03151404 日期：2026年03月01日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 铂、钯：避险情绪发酵，预计波动率提升，单边铂偏强 强弱分析：铂金偏强、钯金中性 价格区间：广铂主力560-700元/克、广钯主力410-510 元/克 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 数据来源：Wind、国泰君安期货研究所 2 铂钯本周表现较为强势或为此前在2月26日晨报种提及的市场受消息面牵动情绪偏乐观，铂金领涨，钯金跟随。本周伦敦现货铂金周涨幅为9.4%，广铂周涨幅 13.03%；伦敦现货钯金周涨幅为0.56%，广钯周涨幅6.02%。具体交易的消息为2月25日津巴布韦颁布限制原矿及锂精矿出口公告，由于津巴布韦是世界第三 大铂族金属资源国，引发了市场上对于铂族金属供应的担忧。但实际津巴布韦的PGM ...

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2026-02-25 氧化铝供给扰动累库幅度放缓 市场分析 电解铝：海外不确定扰动仍然存在，一方面中东地缘危机升级，另一方面美国关税仍存不确定性，特朗普前期关 税政策被裁定越权，而特朗普仍欲将关税政策升级。国内方面，供需平衡方面依旧在考验价格的向下传导以及节 后的消费复苏情况，春节前社会库存累库幅度依旧超季节性。两会即将召开，关注情绪以及实际消费能否带动下 游的采购热情。长期来看，宏观降息以及海外扰动依旧利多，对长期消费并不悲观，但宏观与微观的驱动时间差 或可带来套利机会，关注多铝空铝合金的套利策略。 重要数据 铝现货方面：SMM数据，华东A00铝价23390元/吨，较上一交易日变化230元/吨，华东铝现货升贴水-160元/ 吨，较上一交易日变化-40元/吨；中原A00铝价23310元/吨，现货升贴水较上一交易日变化-40元/吨至-240元/ 吨；佛山A00铝价录23470元/吨，较上一交易日变化260元/吨，铝现货升贴水较上一交易日变化-5元/吨至-75元 /吨。 铝期货方面：2026-02-24日沪铝主力合约开于23440元/吨，收于23550元/吨，较上一交易日变化175元/吨 ...

#投资2026 年，有个量化团队向我推销 XX 套利策略。可能他聊天记录丢了，2025 年他微信问过我这个策略是怎么一回事。不过我没说的是，2024 年这个策略我们是第一批做的（链上数据）。后面因为发现更牛逼的方式，以及收益逐步下降就放弃了。有时候想外行 LP 确实挺难辨别 Crypto 基金水准的... 就像普通人看到 量化、机构、基金就觉得高大上一样。 ...

Key Points - The article discusses recent developments in the banking and financial sector, particularly focusing on innovative investment strategies and market performance [5][7][10]. Group 1: Industry Innovations - On February 10, "Electric Science and Technology Blue Sky," a significant player in the commercial aerospace sector, went public on the Sci-Tech Innovation Board, closing with a remarkable gain of 596% on its first day [5]. - Ningyin Wealth Management successfully acquired shares in Electric Science and Technology Blue Sky during its IPO, with six of its products participating. The firm has participated in 45 new stock subscriptions, achieving a success rate of 91% [5][6]. - Su Yin Wealth Management launched the "Arbitrage+" series of financial products, focusing on short holding periods of 45 and 100 days, utilizing an arbitrage strategy based on the law of one price to capture pricing discrepancies across various markets [7]. Group 2: Market Performance - For the week of February 2 to February 8, 2026, cash management products recorded an annualized yield of 1.28%, remaining stable compared to the previous week, while money market funds saw a slight increase to 1.17% [8]. - The yields of pure fixed income and fixed income + products generally declined during the same period, influenced by weaker-than-expected PMI data, the central bank's resumption of 14-day reverse repos, and increased risk asset volatility [10]. - The average yield of 10-year government bonds decreased by 1 basis point to 1.80%, while 30-year government bonds fell by 3 basis points to 2.23% [10]. Group 3: Financial Product Analysis - The bank wealth management product's net loss rate was 0.96%, an increase of 0.38 percentage points week-on-week, with credit spreads widening by 0.06 basis points [12]. - The relationship between net loss rates and credit spreads is generally positive, indicating potential redemption pressure on the liability side when net loss rates exceed 5% and credit spreads adjust significantly [12].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses various investment strategies using ETFs (Exchange-Traded Funds) tailored to different life stages and financial needs, emphasizing the importance of asset allocation based on individual circumstances and market conditions. Group 1: Asset Allocation Strategies - Asset allocation should be adjusted according to different life stages, considering factors like age, income, and risk tolerance [1][2]. - For daily expenses, liquidity and safety are paramount, suggesting the use of money ETFs for such funds [4][5]. - Fixed expenses require a balance of safety and liquidity, recommending bond ETFs, particularly government bond ETFs, for stable returns [5][6]. - Long-term investments should focus on wealth preservation and growth, allowing for a mix of stock ETFs, bond ETFs, commodity ETFs, and potentially cross-border ETFs [5][6]. Group 2: Life Cycle Considerations - The life cycle is divided into three main phases: education (under 20), career (20-60), and retirement (60 and above), with income typically being lower than expenses in the first and last phases [6][8]. - During the career phase, individuals should focus on preparing for retirement while managing family expenses and debts [6][8]. - Investment strategies should evolve with age, with younger investors (20-30) having a higher risk tolerance and older investors (60+) needing to prioritize safety and income [9][10]. Group 3: Investment Strategies by Age Group - Young investors (20-30) are advised to allocate 70% to stock ETFs and 30% to bond ETFs, adjusting based on personal financial needs [8][9]. - Middle-aged investors (30-60) should reduce stock ETF allocations and increase bond ETF investments as financial responsibilities grow [9][10]. - Older investors (60+) should keep stock ETF investments below 40% and increase bond ETF investments to over 55%, maintaining some liquidity with money ETFs [10][11]. Group 4: Dollar-Cost Averaging Strategy - The dollar-cost averaging strategy involves regular, fixed-amount investments in ETFs to mitigate market volatility and emotional decision-making [11][12]. - This strategy simplifies investment decisions and encourages disciplined saving habits, making it suitable for new and busy investors [18][19]. - Regular assessments of the investment plan are necessary to adapt to market conditions and personal financial situations [20][21].

Group 1 - The emergence of AI agents, such as Clawdbot, has enabled individuals to earn significant profits, with reports of one user making $493,454.56 in a single night [1][19][22] - AI agents are now creating guides to teach other AI how to generate income independently, indicating a shift towards self-sustaining AI systems [3][12][7] - The strategies employed by these AI agents include arbitrage tactics, token launch methods, and automated execution frameworks, aiming to cover their API costs by over 20% [12][16][15] Group 2 - Clawdbot operates by executing micro-arbitrage strategies, capitalizing on price discrepancies in short time frames, which allows it to perform thousands of trades without fatigue [23][20] - The AI's ability to continuously refresh the market and execute trades has led to substantial profits, demonstrating the potential for AI to outperform human traders [23][20] - There is speculation that as more AI agents adopt similar strategies, the financial landscape could undergo significant changes, potentially leading to a new era in trading [16][17][19] Group 3 - The rapid development of AI capabilities has led to the establishment of AI-centric platforms and communities, suggesting a burgeoning AI civilization that may operate independently of human involvement [37][41] - The potential for AI to generate income without human assistance raises questions about the future relationship between AI and humanity in economic contexts [4][41][37] - As AI continues to evolve, it is expected to uncover new and innovative methods for profit generation, further enhancing its role in financial markets [37][41]

Market Overview - A significant decline occurred in the market, with over 4,600 stocks dropping and a median decline of 2.41%. The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 2.48%, marking one of the largest declines since April 7 of the previous year [1]. Precious Metals - The market for gold and silver saw substantial drops, with gold stocks hitting the limit down and silver LOFs also experiencing limit down. Trading volumes for these assets plummeted, with gold stocks seeing a decrease from 1.5-2 billion to under 700 million in transactions [2]. - The recent rise in gold and silver prices was attributed to geopolitical risks and concerns over a potential U.S. government shutdown, involving countries like Venezuela and Iran [4]. Institutional Actions - Several institutions have begun to reduce their holdings in U.S. dollar assets due to concerns over the unpredictability of the U.S. government and rising national debt. Notable actions include: - The Alekta Pension Fund in Sweden reduced its U.S. Treasury holdings by approximately 70-80 billion Swedish Krona. - Danish pension funds are also divesting from U.S. Treasuries, with one fund planning to sell 1 million USD by the end of the month [6]. Market Reactions - Recent market adjustments were influenced by the nomination of Kevin Walsh as the next Federal Reserve Chair, which stabilized the dollar and suppressed gold prices. Additionally, signals of easing tensions between the U.S. and Iran contributed to market fluctuations [7]. - The current market phase is characterized by a downward adjustment, with expectations of stabilization in the following trading days [8]. Long-term Perspectives - Concerns regarding the sustainability of U.S. debt and the independence of the Federal Reserve are driving central banks to increase their gold reserves, indicating a lack of turning point in asset diversification strategies [13]. - The strategy for gold stocks has shifted, with current prices being favorable for re-entering grid strategies, although caution is advised [13]. Arbitrage Strategies - The silver LOF has seen a halt in arbitrage opportunities, with the last transactions being cleared before the recent downturn. The oil LOF also faced similar challenges, resulting in minor losses for arbitrage attempts [14]. - The oil LOF market has been volatile, with previous experiences leading to skepticism about profitability in arbitrage strategies [15]. Conclusion - Despite recent losses, the potential for future arbitrage remains, with a focus on identifying high-probability success strategies in the market [19].

商品ETF还有以下特点： （4）商品ETF的投资成本较低 商品基金风险较低、操作简便、对于商品价格的追踪较为紧密，是比较理想的大类资产配置工具。其中 又以商品ETF优势最为突出：其规模效应和被动管理的模式使得单位投资的成本大幅降低，是最适合普 通投资者的低成本投资工具。 （6）商品ETF连通证券、期货交易市场 对于证券基金市场，商品期货ETF丰富了投资品种和避险工具，打通了期货市场的投资路径，满足了投 资者抵御通货膨胀风险、大类资产配置等需求；对于期货市场，商品期货ETF的上市也能进一步推动交 易所基金市场与商品期货市场协同发展，优化期货市场的投资者结构，推进我国期货市场以及整个资本 市场机构化、专业化进程，增强资本市场服务实体经济的能力，促进资本市场高质量发展。 （7）商品ETF潜在套利机会较多 商品ETF高效的交易机制和独特的跨证券、期货市场联动允许市场开发更多成熟的套利策略，在活跃资 本市场的同时也能减小资产定价误差，反映商品真实价格。比如，T+0交易使得当日买入的商品期货 ETF当日就可以卖出，在进行套利时可以不等到收盘，直接在盘中平仓获得套利收益。 选自深圳证券交易所基金管理部编著的《深交所ETF投 ...

（5）商品ETF的交易效率较高 一方面，由于商品ETF直接跟踪商品价格，对基本面反应更直接。另一方面，根据现有交易所相关规 则，商品ETF二级市场交易实行T+0制度，即当日买入的商品ETF份额当日可以卖出，支持日内多次买 卖操作，较股票ETF交易效率更高。 （6）商品ETF连通证券、期货交易市场 对于证券基金市场，商品期货ETF丰富了投资品种和避险工具，打通了期货市场的投资路径，满足了投 资者抵御通货膨胀风险、大类资产配置等需求；对于期货市场，商品期货ETF的上市也能进一步推动交 易所基金市场与商品期货市场协同发展，优化期货市场的投资者结构，推进我国期货市场以及整个资本 市场机构化、专业化进程，增强资本市场服务实体经济的能力，促进资本市场高质量发展。 商品ETF还有以下特点： （7）商品ETF潜在套利机会较多 （4）商品ETF的投资成本较低 商品ETF高效的交易机制和独特的跨证券、期货市场联动允许市场开发更多成熟的套利策略，在活跃资 本市场的同时也能减小资产定价误差，反映商品真实价格。比如，T+0交易使得当日买入的商品期货 ETF当日就可以卖出，在进行套利时可以不等到收盘，直接在盘中平仓获得套利收益。 商品基 ...

| Comm | | 能源化工研究中心 叶海文 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 从业资格证号:F3071622 | | | | | | | 投资咨询证号:Z0014205 | | | 数据来源:Wind 钢联数据库 | | | | | 現値 | 前值 | 涨跌 | | | | RU主力 | 16230 | 16315 | -85 | | | 国内 | NR主力 | 13085 | 13095 | -10 | | 期货盘面 | | BR主力 | 13265 | 12930 | +335 | | | 外盘 | Tocom RSS3(日元/千克) | 347.0 | 352. 6 | -5.6 | | | | Sicom TF(美分/千克) | 186. 5 | 186. 5 | 0.0 | | | | RU2605-RU2601 | -70 | -95 | +25 | | | | RU2701-RU2609 | 685 | 680 | + રે | | | 跨期价差 | NR主力-次主力 | -40 | -30 | -10 | | | | B ...