1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - MEG (Monoethylene Glycol) is expected to trade in a range of [3700, 4250]. The contract under consideration is eg2601. The price of EG01 is under pressure due to weak cost (oil and coal), high self - valuation, and weak expectations of new capacity coming online in the fourth quarter. From October to December, inventory accumulation is evident, and there are expectations of new plant commissioning in the far - month. In the long - term, from 2026 - 2027, MEG may enter a new expansion phase. Given that oil - based plants are in loss and imports have an advantage in raw material prices, the absolute price range of MEG is anchored to the cost of the coal - based industry, around 3700 - 4245 yuan [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 EGPF Morning Report - **Price Range**: MEG is expected to trade between 3700 - 4245 yuan, with the price range mainly determined by the cost of the coal - based industry [4]. - **Industry Situation**: In 2025, MEG capacity expansion is limited. In the long - term (2026 - 2027), there will be significant new capacity, including second - phase projects and new syngas - to - MEG projects. The value of MEG will likely show bottom - consolidation in the future [4]. - **Inventory Situation**: From October to December, inventory accumulation is significant. In October, the inventory increased by about 7 - 8 tons [4]. - **Operation Suggestions for the Industry Chain** - **Refineries**: For unsold MEG inventory, hedge 50% by short - selling eg2601 and buy 50% put options (eg2601 - P - 3700) to prevent unexpected risks. When inventory is high and worried about price drops, sell eg2601 at 4200 yuan with a 50% ratio [4]. - **Traders**: When purchasing according to the plan, buy EG2601 at 3900 yuan to build inventory. When having inventory and seeking high - price sales, hedge 50% by short - selling eg2601 and buy 50% put options (eg2601 - P - 3700) to prevent price drops [4]. - **End - users**: When in need of polyester raw materials and worried about price increases, buy EG2601 at 3900 yuan. When raw material inventory is high and worried about price drops, hedge 50% by short - selling eg2601 and buy 50% put options (eg2601 - P - 3700) [4]. - **Coal - chemical Enterprises**: For unsold MEG inventory, hedge 50% by short - selling eg2601 and buy 50% put options (eg2601 - P - 3700) to prevent price drops [4]. 3.2 Upstream Price - **Price Changes from November 21 to November 24, 2025**: Naphtha price CFR Japan increased from 562.00 to 563.00; methanol price in Taicang increased from 1989.00 to 2062.00; MEG outer - market price increased from 452.00 to 459.00; MEG East China spot self - pick - up price increased from 3844.00 to 3914.00; MEG import cost increased from 3842.93 to 3898.01; MEG import profit increased from 1.07 to 15.99; EG2601 futures price increased from 3808.00 to 3884.00; direct - spun polyester staple fiber price increased from 6278 to 6488; PF2512 closing price increased from 6148 to 6190 [6]. - **Unchanged Prices**:动力煤 (Inner Mongolia Q5500) remained at 630.00; ethylene in Northeast Asia remained at 730.00; MEG coal - based cost remained at 4816.00 [6]. 3.3 EGPF Process Profits - **Profit Changes from November 21 to November 24, 2025**: MEG oil - based profit increased from - 1192.63 to - 1123.87; MEG coal - based profit increased from - 972.00 to - 902.00; MEG ethylene - based profit increased from - 750.77 to - 676.69; MEG weighted profit increased from - 1104.06 to - 1038.67; direct - spun polyester staple fiber spot profit decreased from 114.13 to 75.88; short - fiber main - contract on - disk profit decreased from 32 to 31 [6]. 3.4 EG Basis, Spread, and Position - **Basis and Spread Changes from November 21 to November 24, 2025**: EG1 - month basis decreased from 36.00 to 30.00; the difference in deep - pine short - rise increased from 130 to 298; PF12 - 1 month spread changed as shown in the data [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - Short - term ethylene glycol fundamentals are in a multi - empty stalemate, with high macro - level uncertainties and some risk - aversion sentiment among market participants. It is expected that ethylene glycol prices will maintain range - bound fluctuations [7] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1行情回顾与操作建议 - On the 15th, the opening price of the main ethylene glycol futures contract 2509 was 4365, the highest was 4365, the lowest was 4316, the settlement was 4338, and the closing was 4322, a decrease of 9 compared to the previous trading day's settlement price. The total volume was 157,709 lots, and the open interest was 286,969 lots [7] - The closing price of EG2509 was 4322 yuan/ton, down 9, with an open interest of 286,969 lots, a decrease of 1899; the closing price of EG2601 was 4336 yuan/ton, down 20, with an open interest of 14,450 lots, an increase of 1800 [7] 3.2行业要闻 - Investors weighed the 50 - day deadline before Trump's new sanctions on a European country and still worried about Trump's tariffs, causing international oil prices to fall. On Monday (July 14), the settlement price of West Texas Light Crude Oil futures for August 2025 on the New York Mercantile Exchange was $66.98 per barrel, a decrease of $1.47 or 2.15% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $66.80 - $69.65; the settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for September 2025 on the London Intercontinental Exchange was $69.21 per barrel, a decrease of $1.15 or 1.63% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $69.02 - $71.53 [8] - In the Zhangjiagang ethylene glycol market, the spot negotiation this week was 4389 - 4392 yuan/ton, a decrease of 9.5 yuan/ton from the previous working day. The negotiation for late July was 4390 - 4392 yuan/ton, and for late August was 4389 - 4392 yuan/ton. The current - week spot basis was at a premium of 67 - 70 yuan/ton compared to EG2509, the basis for late July was at a premium of 68 - 70 yuan/ton compared to EG2509, and the basis for late August was at a premium of 67 - 70 yuan/ton compared to EG2509 [8] - The negotiation range in the Fujian ethylene glycol market was 4300 - 4400 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous working day. The short - term trading atmosphere in the ethylene glycol market has improved, and the price in the Fujian ethylene glycol market is mainly stable and waiting for observation [8] 3.3数据概览 - The report provides multiple data charts, including MEG futures prices, spot - futures price differences, international crude oil futures main contract closing prices, raw material price indices (ethylene), PTA - MEG price differences, MEG prices, MEG downstream product prices, and MEG downstream product inventories, with data sources from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [10][15][16]