Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent rebound in ethylene glycol prices, driven by increased maintenance of overseas facilities and expectations of reduced imports due to weather conditions in North America [3][7]. Supply and Demand Analysis - As of January 22, ethylene glycol futures saw a significant increase of 166 yuan to 3847 yuan/ton, marking a 4.5% rise [3]. - The supply-demand balance indicates that domestic production remains high, with an operating rate of 73.43% for ethylene glycol and 79.4% for synthetic gas as of January 22 [8]. - Despite the seasonal decline in demand due to the upcoming Spring Festival, the overall supply is expected to remain substantial, leading to an estimated inventory pressure of 40-50 thousand tons in January and February [10][11]. Maintenance and Production Updates - Several overseas facilities are undergoing maintenance, including two plants in Taiwan and multiple facilities in Saudi Arabia, which are expected to impact import levels positively [5][6][7]. - The maintenance schedules include significant capacity reductions, with Saudi Arabia's Sharq plant (45,000 tons) and others scheduled for repairs, potentially affecting market supply [6][7]. Price Outlook - Ethylene glycol prices are currently at historical low valuation levels, with expectations of limited downside due to improved import conditions and seasonal demand recovery anticipated in March [12]. - The article suggests that while short-term price fluctuations may continue, a rebound in prices is likely as domestic production enters a brief vacuum and demand increases in the first half of the year [12].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - The price of ethylene glycol may maintain a weak and volatile trend in the short term. The cost side lacks the impetus for significant price fluctuations, the supply is stable, the demand shows no obvious change, and the increase in port inventory suppresses the price to some extent, but the decrease in arrival volume eases the pressure of further inventory increase [2] Summary by Directory 1. Daily Market Summary - **Futures and Basis**: On September 22, 2025, the futures price of the ethylene glycol main contract was 4,240 yuan/ton, down 17 yuan/ton or 0.4% from September 19; the spot price in the East China market was 4,335 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton or 0.23%; the basis was 110 yuan/ton, up 17 yuan/ton or 18.28%. The MEG 1 - 5 spread was - 54 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan/ton; the MEG 5 - 9 spread was - 44 yuan/ton, down 23 yuan/ton; the MEG 9 - 1 spread was 98 yuan/ton, up 17 yuan/ton. The coal - to - ethylene glycol profit was - 476 yuan/ton, unchanged from September 19 [1] - **Position and Trading Volume**: The trading volume of the main contract was 113,147 lots, down 26,852 lots or 19.18% from September 19; the position was 329,607 lots, up 432 lots or 0.13% [1] - **Supply Side**: The overall ethylene glycol operating rate, coal - based, oil - based, ethylene - based, and methanol - based operating rates were all unchanged from September 19, at 70.8%, 65.66%, 74.39%, 66.73%, and 62.43% respectively, indicating a stable supply [1] - **Demand Side**: The load of polyester factories and the load of looms in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were both unchanged from September 19, at 89.42% and 63.43% respectively, with no obvious increase in downstream demand [2] - **Inventory Side**: The inventory at the main ports in East China was 48.57 tons, up 5.9 tons or 13.69% from August 1; the inventory in Zhangjiagang was 18.0 tons, up 5.2 tons or 40.62%; the arrival volume was 10.17 tons, down 6.7 tons or 39.72%. The increase in inventory and decrease in arrival volume may be due to the accumulation of previous arrival goods [2] 2. Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - **Futures and Spot**: The main contract price of MEG futures decreased by 0.40%, the trading volume decreased by 19.18%, and the position increased by 0.13%. The spot price in the East China market decreased by 0.23%, and the basis increased by 18.28%. The MEG 1 - 5 spread increased by 10.00%, the MEG 5 - 9 spread decreased by 109.52%, and the MEG 9 - 1 spread increased by 20.99% [4] - **Profit and Operating Rate**: The coal - to - ethylene glycol profit remained unchanged. The overall ethylene glycol operating rate, coal - based, oil - based, polyester factory load, loom load in Jiangsu and Zhejiang, ethylene - based, and methanol - based operating rates all remained unchanged [4] - **Inventory and Arrival Volume**: The inventory at the main ports in East China increased by 13.69%, the inventory in Zhangjiagang increased by 40.62%, and the arrival volume decreased by 39.72% [4] 3. Industrial Dynamics and Interpretation - **Market Performance**: On September 22, the East China US dollar market was weak, with no transactions in the morning and afternoon. The spot price in Shaanxi and the offer in the South China market were both lowered. The international oil price fell, and the ethylene glycol market was worried about strong supply and weak demand, with a weak fundamental pattern [5] 4. Industrial Chain Data Charts - The report includes charts such as the closing price and basis of the ethylene glycol main contract, ethylene glycol production profit, domestic ethylene glycol plant operating rate, downstream polyester plant operating rate, ethylene glycol inventory at the main ports in East China, and total ethylene glycol industry inventory [6][8][10]