（文章来源：新华财经） 新华财经北京8月22日电华泰证券发布研报表示，全球烯烃产能优化加速，乙烯供需格局或将重塑。近 年来在全球乙烯工业下行压力加深下，欧洲／日本／韩国等小规模、高成本老产能（日本／韩国单套装 置平均产能54/145万吨）出清与优化已明显提速。但在中东与美国低成本产能挤压以及中国一体化大规 模新产能冲击下，欧洲／东亚产能出清尚未引致行业供需实质性拐点，行业变化将更多体现在乙烯全球 供给格局的重塑，即中东／美国产能对高成本地区的替代以及中国凭借下游制造业的优势实现全球份额 增长。随着未来供给格局优化，低成本煤头、气头及一体化装置有望受益。 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" for both Oil & Gas and Basic Chemicals [6]. Core Viewpoints - The global ethylene production capacity optimization is accelerating, leading to a potential reshaping of the supply-demand landscape, particularly with the exit of high-cost production in Europe and East Asia [1][2]. - The report highlights that while low-cost production in the Middle East and North America is increasing, China's integrated large-scale new capacity is expected to impact global ethylene supply significantly [3][4]. - The report recommends companies such as Baofeng Energy, Satellite Chemical, and Hengli Petrochemical as beneficiaries of the evolving supply landscape [1][4]. Summary by Sections Global Ethylene Supply-Demand Dynamics - The report indicates that approximately 55 million tons of global ethylene capacity is at risk of shutdown, with high-risk capacities in China, Asia, and Europe estimated at 5.7 million, 7 million, and 10 million tons respectively [2]. - Major companies in Europe, such as ExxonMobil and SABIC, have begun shutting down ethylene facilities due to economic pressures [2][12]. China's Ethylene Capacity - China's ethylene capacity is projected to reach 57.09 million tons by 2024, with an expected increase of 27.35 million tons in 2025-2026, which may pose challenges to global supply-demand balance [3][4]. - The report emphasizes that the increase in China's capacity, combined with low-cost production from the U.S. and the Middle East, will not lead to a significant turning point in the industry [3]. Cost Advantages and Recommendations - The development of gas and coal-based production routes in China, along with its diverse downstream manufacturing advantages, is expected to reshape the global ethylene supply-demand structure [4]. - The report maintains a positive outlook on companies like Baofeng Energy, Satellite Chemical, and Hengli Petrochemical, suggesting they will benefit from the low-cost production environment [1][4][27].