Core Viewpoint - The Ministry of Commerce has announced a countervailing policy against EU imported dairy products, specifically targeting cheese and high-fat cream, which are core categories in deep processing of dairy products. This policy is set to enhance the price advantage of domestic manufacturers and is expected to have a rapid market impact [1][2][3]. Summary by Sections Policy Announcement - The Ministry of Commerce has issued a preliminary ruling on countervailing investigations against EU dairy imports, confirming that these products are subsidized and have caused substantial harm to the domestic industry. Starting December 23, 2025, temporary countervailing measures will be implemented, requiring importers to provide a deposit of 21.9% to 42.7% based on the value of the goods [2]. Characteristics of the Policy - The ruling specifically targets cheese and high-fat cream, which are heavily reliant on imports, with over 50% of high-fat cream being imported. The measures impose a significant cost increase on EU products, with an average subsidy rate close to 30%. The policy takes effect immediately, demonstrating the government's commitment to market stability [3]. Market Impact - The countervailing policy is expected to accelerate domestic substitution in the deep processing sector, potentially freeing up a market space of 20 billion for cream and 14 billion for cheese. Historically, China's dairy processing industry has been heavily reliant on imports due to high raw milk costs and immature technology, with domestic products only accounting for 14%-18% of the market in 2023. The policy is anticipated to enhance the price advantage of domestic manufacturers, particularly benefiting those in high-fat cream production [4]. Investment Opportunities - The report suggests three categories of investment opportunities: - Domestic substitution beneficiaries: Recommended stocks include Lihigh Foods (300973.SZ) and Miaokelando (600882.SH), with Lihigh being the largest domestic cream producer and poised to benefit from price increases in imported brands [5]. - Dairy price reversal benefiting upstream farms: Companies like Youran Dairy (09858) and Modern Dairy (01117) are highlighted, as they are expected to show resilience and potential profit recovery with the reversal of raw milk prices [5]. - Strengthening competitiveness of leading dairy companies: Recommendations include Yili (600887.SH) and Mengniu Dairy (02319), which are expected to benefit from stabilized milk prices and accelerated deep processing business, enhancing their long-term growth potential [5].

上述研报称，2025年12月22日，商务部公布对欧盟进口乳制品反补贴调查的初步裁定，我国对欧盟六类 （奶酪+稀奶油）进口乳制品收取"反补贴税保证金"，从价比例在28.6%-42.7%。本次加征的反补贴保证 金有利于短期拉大国内外产品价差，推动奶酪、稀奶油产品国产替代进程加速。在欧盟进口品价格普涨 的背景下，预计国产奶酪有望抓住窗口期，切入国内B端供应链，国产稀奶油将加速替代，一方面国产 低价替代量增逻辑更顺；另一方面有望进一步打开国产稀奶油价格带，利润亦有望更加合理。 （文章来源：新华财经） 新华财经上海12月24日电中信证券研报分析认为，我国对欧盟乳制品反补贴调查裁定结果公布，利好乳 制品国产替代。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the positive movement in Hong Kong dairy stocks, with companies like Modern Dairy (01117.HK) and China Wangwang (00151.HK) both rising over 2% [1] - Other dairy stocks such as China Shengmu (01432.HK) and China Feihe (06186.HK) also experienced gains, indicating a broader positive trend in the sector [1] - Citic Securities stated that the EU's anti-subsidy ruling is favorable for domestic dairy product substitutes, suggesting a potential boost for local companies in the industry [1]

人民财讯12月24日电，中信证券研报认为，2025年12月22日欧盟乳制品反补贴调查裁定结果公布，我国 对欧盟六类（奶酪+稀奶油）进口乳制品收取"反补贴税保证金"，从价比例在28.6%—42.7%。1—10月 反补贴税保证金相关乳制品进口量近25万吨，短期利好国内需求提升，本土企业有望抓住窗口期推进供 应链国产替代，看好奶酪、稀奶油国产替代加速。 转自：证券时报 ...