股票代码：600429 股票简称：三元股份 北京三元食品股份有限公司 二零二五年九月五日 $$\exists{\mathsf{k}}\quad\quad{\overline{{\exists\Sigma}}}$$ 北京三元食品股份有限公司 议案》 北京三元食品股份有限公司 关于变更注册资本及修改《公司章程》的议案 根据公司 2022 年限制性股票激励计划的相关规定，结合公司 2024 年度业绩完成情况，公司 股权激励计划第二个解除限售期公司层面业绩考核目标未全部达成，解除限售条件未成就，公司 拟对 167 名激励对象持有的第二个解除限售期相应的 580.9317 万股限制性股票进行回购注销。 同时，11 名激励对象因退休、工作调动原因不再具备激励对象资格，公司拟回购注销其剩余的 限制性股票 72.3331 万股；12 名激励对象因离职等个人原因不再具备激励对象资格，公司拟回 购注销其剩余的限制性股票 55.4330 万股。上述拟回购注销的股票共计 708.6978 万股。故公司 总股本由 1,509,176,043 股变更为 1,502,089,065 股，公司注册资本相应由人民币 1,509,176,043 ...

赵 雷 食品饮料行业分析师 执业编号：S1500524100003 邮 箱：zhaolei@cindasc.com 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDA SECURITIES CO.,LTD 金隅大厦 B 座 邮编：100031 公司研究 [Table_ReportType] 公司点评报告 [妙Ta可bl蓝e_多Sto(c6k0A0n8d8Ra2n)k] 上次评级 买入 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] BC 双轮驱动，提质增效显利润 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 8 月 24 日 投资评级 买入 [T事ab件le：_S公um司ma发ry布] 2025 年半年报。25H1，公司实现营业收入 25.67 亿元， 同比+7.98%；归母净利润 1.33 亿元，同比+86.27%；实现扣非归母净利润 1.02 亿元，同比+80.10%。其中，25Q2 公司实现营业收入 13.34 亿元，同 比+9.62%；归母净利润 5057 万元，同比+53.06%。 点评： 风险因素：食品安全问题，行业竞争加剧 请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披露 http://www.cindasc.com 1 奶酪推 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 32.95 CNY, reflecting a calculated equity value of 169 billion CNY [2][4]. Core Insights - The company's industrial catering business is experiencing rapid growth, with significant potential for margin improvement in single product categories. The overall gross margin has decreased due to a higher proportion of lower-margin industrial catering products, but there is substantial room for improvement in individual product margins as domestic raw material substitution increases [1][10]. Financial Performance Summary - The company reported a revenue of 25.7 billion CNY in the first half of 2025, representing an 8.0% year-on-year increase, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 1.3 billion CNY, up 86.3% year-on-year. In Q2 alone, revenue reached 13.3 billion CNY (+9.6%) and net profit was 0.5 billion CNY (+53.1%) [10]. - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 5.602 billion CNY, 6.485 billion CNY, and 7.482 billion CNY, respectively, with expected growth rates of 15.7%, 15.8%, and 15.4% [8]. - The gross margin for the first half of 2025 was 35.5%, down 3.9 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to the increased share of lower-margin industrial catering products [10]. Earnings Forecast - The forecasted earnings per share (EPS) for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 0.46 CNY, 0.63 CNY, and 0.83 CNY, respectively [2][8].

本报记者 张文湘 见习记者 占健宇 8月22日晚，上海妙可蓝多食品科技股份有限公司（以下简称"妙可蓝多"）发布2025年半年报，2025年 上半年，妙可蓝多实现营业收入25.67亿元，同比增长7.98%；实现归属于上市公司股东的净利润1.33亿 元，较上年同期大幅增长86.27%。 公开资料显示，妙可蓝多主营业务为以奶酪为核心的特色乳制品的研发、生产和销售，其中奶酪产品可 以进一步细分为即食营养系列、家庭餐桌系列和餐饮工业系列。 半年报显示，2025年上半年，妙可蓝多与蒙牛奶酪双品牌融合协同效应增强，即食营养系列、餐饮工业 系列、家庭餐桌系列分别实现营业收入10.83亿元、8.16亿元、2.36亿元，三大奶酪产品系列均延续正增 长。其中，餐饮工业系列营业收入同比增长36.26%，同时国产奶酪进程推进亦带来毛利率持续提升； 家庭餐桌系列受益于渠道合作深化及整合带来的优势品项扩充，营业收入同比增长28.44%。 细分来看，今年上半年，即食营养奶酪方面，儿童营养奶酪系列已形成涵盖多款不同形态产品的矩阵， 全面覆盖儿童食用场景；成人休闲奶酪系列推出奶酪小三角、云朵芝士等新品以及多款功能奶酪产品。 同时，公司不断拓宽常 ...

证券研究报告·公司点评报告·饮料乳品 妙可蓝多（600882） 2025 年中报点评：BC 双驱，成长确立 2025 年 08 月 22 日 买入（维持） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 5,322 | 4,844 | 5,370 | 6,160 | 7,120 | | 同比（%） | 10.20 | (8.99) | 10.87 | 14.71 | 15.58 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 60.07 | 113.62 | 282.23 | 382.69 | 486.42 | | 同比（%） | (56.35) | 89.16 | 148.40 | 35.59 | 27.10 | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | 0.12 | 0.22 | 0.55 | 0.75 | 0.95 | | P/E（现价&最新摊薄） | 237.93 | 125.78 | 50.64 | 37.34 | 29.38 | [关 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese dairy industry is undergoing a significant strategic transformation, shifting from a "scale expansion" model reliant on market penetration and capacity expansion to a "value enhancement" model focused on technological innovation, product differentiation, and value chain extension [5][6]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The B-end dairy market is emerging as a new growth point, attracting major players like Mengniu and Yili, as the C-end market becomes saturated and competition intensifies [6][9]. - The total scale of the B-end dairy market has expanded to a trillion-level, driven by the rapid rise of coffee, baking, and tea industries, which have a growing demand for dairy products [9][12]. - The coffee market alone is projected to see a sales volume of 3.3 billion cups in 2023, with a growth rate of 37.5%, expected to reach 5 billion cups by 2025 [9][12]. Group 2: Domestic Market Trends - The domestic B-end market, particularly for high-end products like cream and cheese, has been dominated by international brands, with a domestic replacement rate of less than 30% [13][15]. - Domestic dairy companies are making strides in technology and production processes, which is breaking the previous dominance of foreign brands [13][15]. - The average price of fresh milk in major producing provinces has decreased, providing a cost advantage for domestic dairy companies in the B-end market [16]. Group 3: Competitive Strategies - Major dairy companies are rapidly expanding their B-end business through partnerships with restaurant chains and other strategies [20][21]. - Mengniu has launched a professional catering brand and focused on specific product lines to meet diverse professional needs [21][23]. - Yili has established a professional dairy application innovation center and expanded its B2B platform to enhance its B-end market presence [23][24]. Group 4: Challenges and Opportunities - The B-end market offers stable customer bases and large order volumes, which can lead to lower production costs and more direct market insights for dairy companies [27]. - However, competition in the B-end market is distinct from the C-end, focusing on product specialization, customization, and supply chain efficiency [29][30]. - Barriers to entry, such as technology, scale, and brand reputation, make it challenging for new entrants to compete effectively in the B-end market [32].

Core Insights - The Chinese dairy industry is undergoing a significant strategic transformation, shifting from a "scale expansion" model reliant on market penetration and capacity expansion to a "value enhancement" model focused on technological innovation, product differentiation, and value chain extension [1] - The B-end dairy market is emerging as a new growth point, attracting major players like Mengniu and Yili, as competition in the C-end market becomes increasingly saturated [1][4] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The B-end dairy market has shown robust growth, with its total scale expanding to a trillion-level market, driven by rising demand from industries like coffee, baking, and tea [4][7] - The coffee market alone is projected to see a sales volume of 3.3 billion cups in 2023, with a growth rate of 37.5%, expected to reach 5 billion cups by 2025 [4][7] - The baking market is also thriving, with a retail market size of 611.07 billion yuan in 2024, anticipated to grow to 859.56 billion yuan by 2029, providing substantial application space for dairy products [7] Group 2: Domestic Market Trends - The trend of domestic substitution in the B-end dairy market is accelerating, with domestic brands gradually breaking the dominance of international brands in high-end products like cream and cheese [8][10] - Currently, 70% to 80% of the B-end market share is still held by imported brands, but domestic companies are gaining ground due to shorter supply chains and better responsiveness to local market needs [10][12] - Anti-dumping policies have created a favorable environment for domestic companies, allowing them to compete more effectively against foreign brands [10][12] Group 3: Competitive Strategies - Major dairy companies are rapidly expanding their B-end market presence through partnerships with food service companies and tailored product offerings [15][21] - Mengniu has launched a professional catering brand, focusing on high-quality dairy ingredients for various sectors, while Yili has established an innovation center to cater to diverse B-end customer needs [15][17] - Companies like Junlebao are focusing on high-value deep processing areas, collaborating with leading tea brands to explore B-end business opportunities [19][21] Group 4: Challenges and Considerations - The B-end market, while promising, presents unique competitive challenges compared to the C-end market, where product specialization and customization capabilities are critical [23][24] - Efficient supply chain management is vital for B-end clients, as any delays can significantly impact operations and brand reputation [24][26] - Barriers to entry, such as technological, scale, and brand reputation, make it difficult for new entrants to compete effectively in the B-end market [26][27]

Core Insights - The dairy industry is undergoing significant transformation driven by supply-side structural adjustments that are reshaping consumption patterns [1] - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs and other departments have issued a plan to promote agricultural product consumption, emphasizing the need for optimizing supply, innovating distribution, and activating market collaboration [1] Group 1: Industry Trends - China's dairy industry competitiveness is continuously improving, with a national raw milk inspection pass rate reaching 99.96% in 2024 [3] - Key indicators such as lactoferrin and β-lactoglobulin in domestic milk outperform similar imported products, indicating a shift towards high-quality development [3] Group 2: Consumption Patterns - The consumption of dairy products is transitioning from traditional drinking to diversified eating, with the rise of new tea beverage markets driving demand for raw milk and cream [4] - The past five years have seen a 120% growth in cheese consumption, with innovative applications in creative dining and traditional dishes attracting consumers [4] Group 3: Market Opportunities - The B2B dairy product market in China is nearing 100 billion yuan, with 70% to 80% of the market share currently held by imports, presenting significant opportunities for domestic alternatives [4] - Companies like Junlebao Group are forming strategic partnerships with domestic tea and coffee brands to cater to the baking and pastry market, promoting localized high-end cream production [4] Group 4: Product Differentiation - China's per capita dairy consumption is less than one-third of the global average, with cheese and butter penetration below 5% [5] - The cheese industry can help address seasonal and regional supply-demand imbalances, while functional dairy products are experiencing annual growth rates of 8% to 10%, significantly outpacing traditional dairy products [5] - Regional specialty dairy products, such as goat and camel milk, have increased their market share from 5% to 12%, with companies developing low-sugar and probiotic products to align with consumer trends [5]

Group 1 - The cheese consumption penetration rate in China is significantly lower than that in Japan, South Korea, the UK, and the US, indicating a large growth potential for the industry [1][2] - The current per capita cheese consumption in China is only 0.2 kg, compared to Japan's 1.8 kg, suggesting substantial room for improvement [2] - The domestic cheese market is still in its growth phase, with a stable competitive landscape and low self-sufficiency rate, necessitating the release of local production capacity [1][2] Group 2 - The leading company, Miaokelando, is expected to enhance its market position through channel integration and cost reduction in the short term, while focusing on deep processing for long-term growth [2] - Miaokelando maintains a leading market share and is strengthening its competitive advantage through partnerships with Mengniu and continuous product innovation [2] - The company is diversifying its distribution channels and expanding collaborations with restaurants and industrial enterprises to enhance operational efficiency and profitability [2]

Core Viewpoint - Fonterra's decision to merge its Anchor consumer products team with its foodservice team in the Greater China region reflects a strategic response to declining performance, aiming to reduce costs and improve efficiency amid a challenging market environment [1][4][10] Performance Decline Pressure - Fonterra's revenue in the Greater China region for the fiscal year 2024 was NZD 6.369 billion, a year-on-year decline of approximately 9.94% [4] - The foodservice business generated NZD 2.377 billion, while the consumer products segment reported a loss with revenues of NZD 394 million [4] - The merger is seen as a necessary adjustment due to the underperformance of the consumer products division, which has struggled in the direct-to-consumer market [4][8] Strategic Business Shift - Fonterra announced plans to divest its consumer products business globally, focusing on becoming a B2B dairy supplier, while retaining its consumer products in Greater China due to market considerations [3][4] - The brands involved in the global divestment include Anchor, Mainland, Kāpiti, Anlene, Anmum, Fernleaf, Western Star, and Perfect Italiano [3] Positive Outlook on Foodservice Business - The foodservice segment showed promising growth, with a revenue increase of approximately 4.79% for the fiscal year 2024, and a 7.46% increase in the Greater China region [6] - The Greater China market accounted for over 58% of Fonterra's foodservice revenue, indicating its significance to the overall business [6] Market Opportunities - The Chinese baking market is expected to expand significantly, with projections estimating a market size of CNY 859.56 billion by 2029, driven by rising consumer spending and changing consumption patterns [6] - Fonterra's recent product launches, including cream products tailored for the Chinese market, highlight its commitment to capitalizing on growth opportunities in the foodservice sector [7] Challenges Ahead - The merger of the two business units will face challenges such as product overlap, team integration, and competitive pressures from both international and local players in the B2B market [8][9] - Effective management of brand positioning and product differentiation will be crucial for Fonterra's long-term growth and success in the region [10]