（来源：经济参考报） ——在精深加工上"求升级"。张继新说，遇到行业周期性调整，走好精深加工路线是"破局"的关键，既 可以大幅提升附加值来对冲原料降价损失，又可以延长产品保质期来平抑价格波动，还可以避免同质化 竞争来增强抗周期能力。公司奶业板块负责人张凤娥介绍，随着生鲜乳价格连续下跌，公司去年由"给 他人提供生鲜乳"转变为"自己生产乳制品"，在生产奶粉、发酵奶等产品基础上，配套建设稀奶油、干 酪素等生产线。她说："我们避开同大型乳企的正面竞争，瞄准国内市场盯住互联网平台，通过生产小 条包奶粉、承接定制乳制品代加工等业务，累计盈利800多万元，同时积极拓展东南亚等国际市场。" ——在经营管理上"要效益"。据介绍，公司严格实行扁平化管理，行政后勤岗位人员共用，800多名员 工中高管仅6人，90%以上员工都在生产一线，行政开支大幅压缩。公司尽可能使用机械化作业，养殖 场人畜比在1：100以上，高于1：80的行业平均水平，节省了大量人力成本。"重生产也重经营是企业发 展壮大的必然要求，多元化经营可以分散风险，不断提高市场竞争力。"张继新说，"养殖企业应把节约 意识、精算意识贯穿生产经营全过程，'小钱''小账'看似没多 ...

每周 一 景 ： 云南长江第一湾 金沙江 点击右上角菜单，收听朗读版 【食饮】白酒探底，乳制品国产替代有望加速 投资建议：成长为主线、重视供需出清下的拐点机会。 1）首选具有价格弹性标的，以及有望陆续出清标的；2）饮料结构性高增，重视低估值高股息；3） 零食及食品原料成长标的；4）啤酒；5）调味品平稳、牧业产能去化，餐供有望恢复。 白酒：加速探底，迈向供需平衡。 25Q3以来白酒行业加速探底，报表出清有助于降低渠道库存压力，展望2026年，龙头茅、五批价下行有望激发动销，从 而实现量价平衡。近期宏观及政策层面对消费板块预期形成积极催化，白酒作为顺周期资产，此前已进入加速调整阶段，板块估值分位偏低、股息率具备一定 吸引力，且对宏观环境变化较为敏感，我们认为在政策预期的引导下，股价有望先于基本面见底。 大众品：乳制品国产替代有望提速。 近期商务部对欧盟乳制品实施临时反补贴措施，涉及品类主要为乳酪和稀奶油，有望加速相关产品的国产替代过程，同 时有望增加耗奶量，加速行业周期反转。 风险提示： 宏观经济波动加大、行业竞争加剧、食品安全风险。 【产业】脑机接口元年：政策先行 临床验证 未来终至 我们认为2025年为国内脑 ...

Industry Dynamics - The 2025 version of the "Encouragement Directory for Foreign Investment Industries" has been released, effective from February 2026, promoting foreign investment in the health industry, particularly in the central and northeastern regions of China [1] - A total investment of 377 million yuan has been initiated for the modern sheep milk industry park project, aiming to create a closed-loop industrial chain, with the first phase expected to be operational by November next year [2] - The 2025 Hurun China Food Industry Top 100 list includes 11 dairy companies and 3 health food companies, with notable growth in the cheese business of Miaokelando, which saw a 63% increase in value [3] Brand Dynamics - Yili Group's Jin Hao factory has received a "five-star" rating for on-site management from the China Quality Association, marking it as the first dairy factory in China to achieve this recognition [4] - Jianhe Group has signed a new strategic cooperation agreement with JD Health, targeting a combined business goal of 10 billion yuan over the next three years, covering various nutrition brands [5] - Mengniu has launched the "Inner Mongolia Flavor" 2026 plan, showcasing innovative products and aiming to promote domestic raw material substitution in the dairy industry [6] Channel Dynamics - Gao Ge Dairy has initiated the "Student Nutrition Service Station" strategy to address declining foot traffic in traditional maternal and infant channels, targeting families with children aged 3-15 [7] - ThaiBev is shifting its strategic focus towards dairy products and soft drinks, planning to invest in expanding its halal dairy production base in Malaysia as part of its 2030 strategy [8] - Kidswant Ultra has opened its first store in Beijing, integrating cultural elements and popular global IPs to establish a competitive edge in the market [9] - The "Xiaofeixiang" Sichuan-Chongqing branch has been launched, marking a significant step in deepening regional market penetration and resource integration [10]

报告导读： 扩内需逐步被提升至战略地位，消费板块有望触底反弹。白酒板块加速探底， 迈向供需平衡。大众品板块乳制品国产替代有望提速。 投资建议：成长为主线、重视供需出清下的拐点机会。 1）首选具有价格弹性标的，以及有望陆续出清标的；2）饮料结构性高增，重视低估值高股息；3）零 食及食品原料成长标的；4）啤酒；5）调味品平稳、牧业产能去化，餐供有望恢复。 白酒：加速探底，迈向供需平衡。 25Q3以来白酒行业加速探底，报表出清有助于降低渠道库存压力，展望2026年，龙头茅、五批价下行有望激发动销，从而 实现量价平衡。近期宏观及政策层面对消费板块预期形成积极催化，白酒作为顺周期资产，此前已进入加速调整阶段，板块估值分位偏低、股息率具备一定吸 引力，且对宏观环境变化较为敏感，我们认为在政策预期的引导下，股价有望先于基本面见底。 大众品：乳制品国产替代有望提速。 近期商务部对欧盟乳制品实施临时反补贴措施，涉及品类主要为乳酪和稀奶油，有望加速相关产品的国产替代过程，同 时有望增加耗奶量，加速行业周期反转。 风险提示： 宏观经济波动加大、行业竞争加剧、食品安全风险。 以上内容节选自国泰海通证券已发布的证券研究报告。 报告名称 ...

本周，商务部公布了对原产于欧盟的进口相关乳制品反补贴调查的初步裁定，认定上述产品存在补贴， 中国国内相关乳制品产业受到实质损害，而且补贴与实质损害之间存在因果关系。 根据商务部的建议，自2025年12月23日起，国务院关税税则委员会采取临时反补贴税保证金的形式实施 临时措施。 商务部新闻发言人就初裁答记者问时介绍，2024年8月21日，应中国奶业协会和中国乳制品工业协会申 请，商务部对此发起反补贴调查。根据初裁，欧盟公司的从价补贴率为21.9%-42.7%，商务部决定实施 临时反补贴措施。 获得补贴的欧盟乳制品进口究竟对中国国内产业构成了何种冲击？ 中国社会科学院农村发展研究所研究员、产业经济研究室主任刘长全接受第一财经记者采访时表示，当 前我国奶业正面临严峻形势，而这一困境与进口冲击密切相关。"欧盟产品凭借补贴形成的价格优势进 入中国市场，对国内生产造成明显冲击。"刘长全说，在我国消费升级、对深加工产品需求增长的背景 下，国内产业因缺乏规模与成本优势，难以在起步阶段与国际产品竞争。 补贴后进口产品对国内产业形成冲击 当前，我国奶业正遭遇前所未有的困难。 刘长全将国内奶业面临的挑战概括为四个"最"。第一，原料 ...

证券研究报告：食品饮料|点评报告 发布时间：2025-12-25 行业投资评级 强于大市|维持 | 行业基本情况 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 收盘点位 | | 16521.46 | | 52 | 周最高 | 18638.17 | | 52 | 周最低 | 16379.5 | 行业相对指数表现（相对值） -10% -7% -4% -1% 2% 5% 8% 11% 14% 17% 2024-12 2025-03 2025-05 2025-07 2025-10 2025-12 食品饮料 沪深300 ⚫ 投资要点 资料来源：聚源，中邮证券研究所 研究所 分析师:蔡雪昱 SAC 登记编号:S1340522070001 Email:caixueyu@cnpsec.com 分析师:杨逸文 SAC 登记编号:S1340522120002 Email:yangyiwen@cnpsec.com 分析师:张子健 SAC 登记编号:S1340524050001 Email:zhangzijian@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《政策利好叠加周期拐点预期，乳制品 板块表现强势》 - 2025.12.2 ...

证券研究报告 2025 年 12 月 25 日 湘财证券研究所 行业研究 食品饮料行业点评 深加工是中国乳业的发展方向 ——对欧盟乳制品征收反补贴政策点评 相关研究： | 1.《品类创新扬帆，穿越液奶周期 | | | --- | --- | | ——伊利股份2026年经销商大会 | | | 点评》 | 2025.12.19 | | 2.《妙可蓝多：品牌破圈，国产替 | | | 代加速》 | 2025.11.28 | | 3.《板块情绪回暖，估值极具性价 | | | 比》 | 2025.11.24 | 行业评级：买入（维持） 近十二个月行业表现 % 1 个月 3 个月 12 个月 | 相对收益 | -3.8% | 0.3% | -22.9% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 绝对收益 | 4.4% | 1.4% | -13.7% | | | | 注：相对收益与沪深 300 相比 | | 分析师：张弛 证书编号：S0500525110001 Tel：17621838100 Email：zc08241@xcsc.com 地址：上海市浦东新区银城路88号 中国人寿金融中心10楼 ❑ 首先利好 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report from Guoyuan International indicates that with the gradual stabilization of domestic dairy product demand and the implementation of countervailing measures, there is an expected increase in the demand for raw milk, suggesting a potential investment opportunity in Youran Dairy (09858) [1] Group 1: Countervailing Measures - The Ministry of Commerce of China announced a preliminary ruling on December 22, 2024, to implement temporary countervailing duties on dairy products imported from the EU starting December 23, 2025 [2] - The countervailing investigation began in July 2024, initiated by the China Dairy Industry Association and the China Dairy Products Industry Association, citing substantial damage to the domestic industry due to EU subsidies [2] - The preliminary evidence indicates that the EU provided significant subsidies to its dairy sector, leading to a causal relationship with the damage to the Chinese domestic industry, resulting in a countervailing duty range of 21.9%-42.7% on various dairy products [2] Group 2: Impact on Supply and Demand - The implementation of countervailing measures is expected to increase import prices, which may help restore the balance between supply and demand for raw milk in China [2] - In the first ten months of 2025, China imported 2.1824 million tons of various dairy products, with cheese, cream, and sour cream accounting for 156,000 tons, 118,100 tons, and 214,500 tons respectively, with the EU being a significant supplier [2] - The countervailing measures are anticipated to weaken the price advantage of imported dairy products, potentially reducing overseas supply and promoting a return to supply-demand equilibrium in the domestic raw milk industry [2]

事件：中国商务部 2025 年 12 月 22 日发布公告，初步裁定原产于欧盟的进 口相关乳制品，包括鲜乳酪及凝乳、加工乳酪、稀奶油等存在补贴。中方决 定自 2025 年 12 月 23 日起对相关产品收取临时反补贴税保证金。 审核历时一年，初步裁定从价补贴率以 28.6%-42.7%为主。应国内产业申请， 商务部于 2024 年 8 月 21 日对原产于欧盟的进口相关乳制品发起反补贴调 查。经过一年多的审慎调查，初步证据显示，欧盟通过共同农业政策等补贴 计划向乳及乳制品产业等涉农领域提供了大量补贴。调查期内，中国国内产 业受进口欧盟补贴产品影响，库存不断增加，利润由盈利转为亏损，生产经 营出现困难。调查机关初步认为，欧盟相关乳制品产品存在补贴，中国国内 产业受到实质损害，且两者之间的因果关系成立。据此，商务部于 2025 年 12 月 22 日发布初裁公告，决定实施临时反补贴措施。根据商务部提供的欧 盟各公司从价补贴率列表，抽样公司的从价补贴率以 29.7%为主，菲仕兰比 利时有限公司和菲仕兰荷兰有限公司为 42.7%；配合调查公司的从价补贴率 为 28.6%；其他公司为 42.7%。 涉及的商品进口占比较 ...

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive investment outlook for the dairy industry, particularly recommending attention to YouRan Dairy (9858.HK) as a potential investment opportunity [5]. Core Insights - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce announced a preliminary ruling on December 22, 2025, to implement temporary anti-subsidy measures on imported dairy products from the EU, effective from December 23, 2025 [1][3]. - The anti-subsidy investigation, initiated in July 2024, revealed that the EU provided substantial subsidies to its dairy industry, causing material harm to the domestic industry in China [3]. - The subsidy rates for affected products, including fresh cheese, processed cheese, and cream, range from 21.9% to 42.7% [3]. Summary by Sections Anti-Subsidy Measures - The anti-subsidy measures are expected to increase import prices, which may help balance the supply and demand of raw milk in China [4]. - In the first ten months of 2025, China imported 2.1824 million tons of various dairy products, with significant contributions from the EU, accounting for 15% of cheese, 12% of cream, and 29% of other cream products [4]. Market Dynamics - The report indicates that domestic dairy prices have been declining due to an oversupply of raw milk, and the price advantage of imported dairy products is diminishing [4]. - The implementation of anti-subsidy measures is anticipated to weaken the price advantage of imported dairy products, potentially reducing overseas supply and promoting a return to supply-demand balance in China's raw milk industry [4]. Investment Recommendations - As domestic dairy product demand stabilizes and anti-subsidy measures stimulate the demand for domestic raw milk processing, the report encourages monitoring YouRan Dairy (9858.HK) for investment opportunities [5].