2025 年 8 月 28 日 国证国际证券（香港）有限公司 • 研究部 港股晨报 1. 国证视点：港股继续调整 港股延续前天回吐势头，市场高开低走，恒生指数跌 1.27%，国企指数跌 1.40%， 恒生科技指数跌 1.47%。大市成交上升至 3,713.76 亿元，主板总卖空金额升 至 651.94 亿元，占可卖空股票总成交额比率进一步上升至 19.022%。 南向资金流（北水）维持相对较高水平，港股通净流入金额 153.71 亿港元。 港股通 10 大成交活跃股中，北水净买入最多的是盈富基金 2800.HK、恒生中 国企业ETF 2828.HK、阿里巴巴 9988.HK；净卖出最多的是中芯国际 981.HK、 小米集团－W 1810.HK、商汤－Ｗ 20.HK。北向资金方面，8 月 27 日北向资 金共成交 3988.31 亿元，占两市总成交额的 12.60%。 在大盘调整的影响下，大部份板块表现弱势。物管板块跌幅较大，主要受业绩 不及预期所致，卓越商企服务 6989.HK 重挫逾 16%、碧桂园服务 6098.HK 跌 逾 11%，华润万象生活 1209.HK、雅生活服务 3319.HK 跌幅均约 9% ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent trade agreements between Europe and the U.S. have not mitigated the damaging impacts of U.S. tariffs, leading to a significant increase in France's trade deficit and raising concerns about the competitiveness of French exports [1][2]. Trade Deficit and Economic Impact - In June, France's trade deficit expanded to approximately 7.7 billion euros, with imports rising by 400 million euros to 57.6 billion euros and exports increasing by 300 million euros to 49.9 billion euros [1]. - For the first half of 2025, France's cumulative trade deficit reached 43 billion euros, an increase of about 4.4 billion euros compared to the second half of 2024 [1]. - The trade deficit for the second quarter of 2025 was 22.9 billion euros, widening by approximately 2.8 billion euros from the first quarter [1]. Structural Issues in Trade Agreements - The framework agreement between the U.S. and Europe reveals significant structural differences, particularly regarding tariff exemptions, with the U.S. interpreting a 15% tariff as broadly applicable to European goods, while Europe seeks exemptions for key industries [2]. - French officials emphasize the need to advocate for exemptions beyond the aviation sector, including pharmaceuticals and food processing [2]. Agriculture and Food Sector Concerns - French agricultural products, including wine and cheese, are excluded from tariff exemptions, with potential additional tariffs of 800 million euros if wine and spirits do not receive exemptions [3]. - The U.S. demands simplification of health certifications for meat and dairy, which could impact food safety standards in France and Europe [3]. Digital Services and Technology - The U.S. claims that Europe has committed to exempting American companies from certain taxes, while Europe has only stated it will coordinate further [3]. - France views the digital services sector as a critical area for exerting pressure on the U.S. and aims to implement a digital tax on American tech giants [3]. Military and Energy Procurement - The U.S. has indicated that Europe will significantly purchase American military equipment by 2026, but European officials argue that military procurement was never formally on the agenda [4]. - France is pushing for exemptions in energy and pharmaceuticals to protect domestic jobs and industries, criticizing the reliance on U.S. fossil fuels [4]. France's Position and Strategy - France expresses dissatisfaction with compromises made in negotiations with the U.S. and vows to maintain its competitiveness through "strategic autonomy" [5]. - French officials argue that the U.S. tariffs will lead to a "lose-lose" situation, affecting both American consumers and exports [5]. - The French government aims to strengthen its position in trade negotiations by focusing on collective unity within the EU and addressing structural imbalances in service trade [6]. Future Coordination and Policy Recommendations - Experts suggest that France should enhance coordination in trade strategy, avoid unilateral actions, and utilize "anti-coercion tools" against U.S. threats [6]. - Policy recommendations include targeted subsidies, diversifying export markets, and increasing investments in innovation and green development to counteract U.S. tariff impacts [6].

贝森特于当地时间8月12日向媒体表示，美国希望能在10月底前完成与所有贸易伙伴的谈判，不过在谈 到印度时，他说印方"有些顽固"。 美国总统特朗普6日签署行政令，以印度直接或间接进口俄罗斯石油为由，对印度产品额外征收25％关 税，加上美国此前已对印度征收的25％关税，使得印度输美商品的关税税率达到50%。 上海国际问题研究院南亚研究中心主任刘宗义向第一财经记者表示，印度在与美国的贸易谈判上，始终 不愿做出过多的让步，这让特朗普十分恼火。同时，在莫迪今年2月访美期间，特朗普就提出印度需要 购买美国石油来削减逆差，这一诉求也未得到满足，最终使得特朗普使出了惯用的关税"大棒"。 印度服装制造商协会成员梅赫塔说，美国市场占印度服装出口总额的约三分之一。 印度服装出口促进会主席塞克里（Sudhir Sekhri）表示，除非印度政府通过直接财政支持帮助行业渡过 难关，否则美国的不合理关税将给以美国市场为主要出口对象的印度中小型服装企业"敲响丧钟"。 与此同时，像苹果手机等电子产品，以及医药产品输美时仍将享受关税豁免待遇。印度电子和信息技术 部长维什瑙（Ashwini Vaishnaw）日前表示，印度已经成为美国智能手机最大 ...

Key Points - The U.S. President Trump announced new tariffs on imports from 14 countries, including a 25% tariff on goods from Japan and South Korea, and tariffs ranging from 25% to 40% on Malaysia, South Africa, Indonesia, Myanmar, and Thailand, effective August 1 [9] - The Federal Reserve Chairman candidate, Waller, suggested that the Fed should lower interest rates further, while a Fed report warned of potential zero interest rate risks due to uncertain economic outlook [11] - OPEC+ is expected to approve a significant production increase of approximately 550,000 barrels per day in September [11] Market Overview - WTI crude oil rose by 2.11% to $67.01 per barrel, while Brent crude oil increased by 1.65% to $69.02 per barrel, driven by strong demand despite concerns over OPEC+ production increases and U.S. tariffs [3] - The U.S. dollar index increased by 0.58% to 97.51, while the 10-year Treasury yield closed at 4.385% [6] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 0.94%, the S&P 500 dropped by 0.79%, and the Nasdaq Composite decreased by 0.92%, with notable declines in stocks like Tesla and Apple [3] Stock Market Performance - Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index closed down 0.12%, while the Hang Seng Tech Index rose by 0.25% [4] - In the A-share market, the Shanghai Composite Index increased by 0.02%, while the Shenzhen Component and ChiNext Index fell by 0.7% and 1.21%, respectively [5] - The cryptocurrency sector saw significant gains, with some stocks rising over 10%, while sectors like biomedicine and dairy products faced declines [4][5]

Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market experienced a decline in the three major indices, with the Hang Seng Index down by 0.45%, the Hang Seng Tech Index down by 0.15%, and the National Enterprises Index down by 0.44% [1] Sector Performance - Cryptocurrency stocks saw a positive trend, with Guotai Junan International (01788.HK) rising over 8% [1] - Education stocks performed well, with Huaxia Holdings (01981.HK) and China Oriental Education (00667.HK) each increasing by over 3% [1] - Real estate stocks rebounded, with companies like Sunac China (01918.HK), China Jinmao (00817.HK), and China Resources Land (01109.HK) showing gains [1] - Other sectors such as nuclear power, elderly care, food, electricity, gaming, and new consumption also saw early gains [1] Notable Declines - Dairy product stocks faced significant losses, particularly China Feihe (06186.HK), which dropped over 17%, reaching a new low in 188 trading days [1] - Sectors such as biomedicine, gold, non-ferrous metals, and Apple-related stocks experienced declines [1]

恒生科技指数转涨，此前跌超1%，恒指现跌0.23%，加密货币、内房、核电等概念涨幅居前；奶制品、 黄金、苹果等概念走低。 ...

消息面，中国人民银行行长潘功胜宣布，降准0.5个百分点，向市场提供长期流动性约1万亿元，并降低 政策利率0.1个百分点。适度宽松货币政策，有利于市场流动性改善，提振市场信心。 涨幅居前的还有煤炭股。南南资源（01229.HK）涨13.46%，中国神华（01088.HK）涨1.53%，中煤能 源（01898.HK）涨1.49%。 5月7日，港股三大指数高开低走。截至收盘，恒生指数涨0.13%，国企指数跌0.23%，恒生科技指数跌 0.75%。 分板块看，消费板块中，汽车经销商、体育用品、香港零售股、奢侈品股、节假日概念等板块都表现不 错。成分股中，中升控股（00881.HK）涨4.8%,安踏体育（02020.HK）涨1.86%,361度（01361.HK）涨 1.88%，新秀丽（01910.HK）涨3.35%，普拉达（01913.HK）涨4.41%，携程集团-S（09961.HK）涨 2.29%。 消息上，在今天（7日）举行的国新办新闻发布会上，中国人民银行行长潘功胜表示，将完善存款准备 金制度，阶段性将汽车金融公司、金融租赁公司的存款准备金率，从目前的5%调降至0%。此外，潘功 胜还表示，将设立5000亿元服 ...