Core Insights - 3M is scheduled to release its earnings on October 21, 2025, which is crucial for traders using event-driven strategies [2] - Historical data shows that 3M's stock has had a balanced response to earnings announcements, with a 50% chance of positive one-day returns averaging 4.8% and a 50% chance of negative returns averaging -2.8% [3][10] - For Q3 2025, consensus estimates predict earnings of $2.07 per share on revenue of $6.26 billion, compared to $2.14 per share and $6.07 billion in the same quarter last year [4] Financial Performance - 3M has a market capitalization of approximately $81 billion and generated $25 billion in revenue over the past twelve months, with operating profits of $4.8 billion and net income of $3.9 billion [5] - The historical trend indicates significant volatility in stock performance post-earnings, with no consistent upward or downward trend [3][5] Trading Strategies - Traders may consider pre-earnings positioning based on historical probabilities, which show a 50/50 distribution in past results [7] - Post-earnings, traders can analyze immediate market reactions and correlations between short-term and medium-term returns to inform their positioning [8][9]

Core Insights - Medtronic is set to report earnings on August 19, 2025, with historical stock performance post-earnings being highly unpredictable, showing a 50% chance of positive returns and a median gain of 2.5%, while also experiencing a median loss of -3.8% in negative instances [4][8]. Financial Performance - Medtronic's current market capitalization stands at $119 billion, with the company generating $34 billion in revenue over the last twelve months, an operating profit of $6.5 billion, and a net income of $4.7 billion [5]. Stock Performance Comparison - Over the past five years, Medtronic's stock has underperformed compared to the S&P 500, with its share price declining from approximately $100 to $95, while the S&P 500 has increased by about 70% during the same period [3]. Earnings Forecast - The consensus forecast for the upcoming earnings report is $1.23 per share on sales of $8.37 billion, indicating flat earnings per share compared to the previous year but an increase in sales from $7.92 billion [4]. Historical Earnings Reaction - An analysis of the last five years shows that Medtronic has had 20 earnings observations, with a 50% hit rate for positive one-day returns, which drops to 42% when considering the last three years [8]. Trading Strategies - Two trading strategies are suggested: pre-earnings positioning based on historical odds and post-earnings positioning that utilizes the relationship between immediate and medium-term returns to inform trading decisions [6].

Core Viewpoint - Meta Platforms is expected to report earnings on July 30, 2025, with analysts forecasting earnings of $5.90 per share and revenues of $44.8 billion, indicating growth from the previous year [4]. Historical Stock Behavior - Over the last five years, Meta's stock has shown a volatile reaction to earnings surprises, with a 50% chance of a positive one-day return, yielding a median increase of 7.7% and a peak rise of 23.3%. Conversely, there is also a 50% chance of a negative return, with a median decrease of -4.7% and a peak fall of -26.4% [3][11]. - There have been 20 earnings data points in the past five years, resulting in 10 positive and 10 negative one-day returns, indicating a balanced historical performance [6]. Financial Performance - Meta Platforms has a current market capitalization of $1.8 trillion and generated $170 billion in revenue over the past year, with operating profits of $73 billion and a net income of $67 billion [5]. Trading Strategies - Event-driven traders may adopt two main strategies: pre-earnings positioning based on historical probabilities or post-earnings positioning to assess immediate stock reactions before making investment decisions [7]. - A less risky approach involves understanding the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns post-earnings, allowing traders to make informed decisions based on historical data [8].

Core Insights - Microsoft is expected to announce its earnings report on July 30, 2025, with analysts predicting earnings of $3.38 per share and revenues of $73.81 billion, compared to $2.95 per share and $64.73 billion in the same quarter last year [3][4]. Historical Performance - Over the last five years, Microsoft's stock has shown a tendency towards negative one-day returns post-earnings, with 53% of cases resulting in a median decrease of -3.3% and a maximum drop of -7.7% [3][6]. - In the past five years, there were 19 earnings data points, with 9 positive and 10 negative one-day returns, resulting in positive returns approximately 47% of the time. This percentage drops to 36% when considering the last three years [6]. Financial Metrics - Microsoft has a current market capitalization of $3.8 trillion and generated $270 billion in revenue over the past twelve months, with operating profits of $122 billion and net income of $97 billion [4]. Trading Strategies - Event-driven traders can utilize historical data for two main strategies: pre-earnings positioning based on historical probabilities and post-earnings positioning to evaluate immediate stock responses for medium-term performance [5][7]. - A lower-risk strategy involves understanding the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns post-earnings, allowing traders to position themselves accordingly based on the strongest correlations [7]. Peer Performance - The performance of peers can influence Microsoft's stock reaction following earnings, with historical data showing the impact of peer stock performance on post-earnings returns [8].