Core Viewpoint - Meta Platforms is expected to report earnings on July 30, 2025, with analysts forecasting earnings of $5.90 per share and revenues of $44.8 billion, indicating growth from the previous year [4]. Historical Stock Behavior - Over the last five years, Meta's stock has shown a volatile reaction to earnings surprises, with a 50% chance of a positive one-day return, yielding a median increase of 7.7% and a peak rise of 23.3%. Conversely, there is also a 50% chance of a negative return, with a median decrease of -4.7% and a peak fall of -26.4% [3][11]. - There have been 20 earnings data points in the past five years, resulting in 10 positive and 10 negative one-day returns, indicating a balanced historical performance [6]. Financial Performance - Meta Platforms has a current market capitalization of $1.8 trillion and generated $170 billion in revenue over the past year, with operating profits of $73 billion and a net income of $67 billion [5]. Trading Strategies - Event-driven traders may adopt two main strategies: pre-earnings positioning based on historical probabilities or post-earnings positioning to assess immediate stock reactions before making investment decisions [7]. - A less risky approach involves understanding the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns post-earnings, allowing traders to make informed decisions based on historical data [8].

Core Insights - Microsoft is expected to announce its earnings report on July 30, 2025, with analysts predicting earnings of $3.38 per share and revenues of $73.81 billion, compared to $2.95 per share and $64.73 billion in the same quarter last year [3][4]. Historical Performance - Over the last five years, Microsoft's stock has shown a tendency towards negative one-day returns post-earnings, with 53% of cases resulting in a median decrease of -3.3% and a maximum drop of -7.7% [3][6]. - In the past five years, there were 19 earnings data points, with 9 positive and 10 negative one-day returns, resulting in positive returns approximately 47% of the time. This percentage drops to 36% when considering the last three years [6]. Financial Metrics - Microsoft has a current market capitalization of $3.8 trillion and generated $270 billion in revenue over the past twelve months, with operating profits of $122 billion and net income of $97 billion [4]. Trading Strategies - Event-driven traders can utilize historical data for two main strategies: pre-earnings positioning based on historical probabilities and post-earnings positioning to evaluate immediate stock responses for medium-term performance [5][7]. - A lower-risk strategy involves understanding the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns post-earnings, allowing traders to position themselves accordingly based on the strongest correlations [7]. Peer Performance - The performance of peers can influence Microsoft's stock reaction following earnings, with historical data showing the impact of peer stock performance on post-earnings returns [8].