Market Share - The proportion of second-hand housing searchers dropped significantly to 61% in April 2025, the lowest level since 2024, with declines across all city tiers, particularly in third and fourth-tier cities, indicating notable market volatility [1][3] - The second-hand housing market's diversion pressure on new housing decreased to 28%, ending an upward trend, with lower-tier cities experiencing greater diversion pressure [1][3] Diversion Pressure - The diversion pressure from the second-hand housing market to the new housing market showed a significant decline, with a pressure value of 28% in April, down 4 percentage points from March [5][6] - The annual average diversion pressure increased from 25.8% in 2024 to 31.0% in the first four months of 2025, indicating a trend of increasing diversion pressure from second-hand to new housing, albeit with a short-term reduction [5][6] Overlap Between Markets - The overlap between the second-hand and new housing markets fell to 12% in April 2025, down from a peak of 15% in February, suggesting a clear differentiation between the two buyer groups [2][9] - In lower-tier cities, the overlap remains higher, with third and fourth-tier cities showing a 34% overlap, indicating more intense competition for buyers between second-hand and new housing [9][10] Market Response - Overall, the demand for searching and purchasing homes has declined, with the second-hand housing search heat index at 63.8 in April 2025, down 3.2% year-on-year [16] - Despite the decline, second-hand housing continues to attract more buyer interest compared to new housing, although the diversion effect of second-hand housing on new housing has weakened [18]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a significant decline in the proportion of house seekers in the second-hand housing market, dropping to 61% in April 2025, the lowest level since 2024, suggesting a shift in market dynamics [2][3][6]. Core Insights - The second-hand housing market is experiencing reduced pressure on the new housing market, with the diversion pressure decreasing to 28% in April 2025, down from 32% in March [2][6][20]. - The overlap between the second-hand and new housing markets has decreased to 12%, indicating a clear segmentation of buyer demographics [10][11]. - Despite a general decline in housing demand, second-hand housing remains more favored by buyers compared to new housing, although the diversion effect has weakened in the short term [18][20]. Summary by Sections 1. Second-hand Housing Market Impact on New Housing - The proportion of house seekers in the second-hand market has significantly decreased, with a notable drop of 10 percentage points from March to April 2025 [2][3]. - The diversion pressure from the second-hand market to the new market has decreased, indicating a shift in buyer focus [6][20]. 2. Second-hand Housing Market Diversion Pressure - The diversion pressure value for April 2025 is reported at 28%, a decrease from 32% in March, marking the end of an upward trend since December 2024 [6][7]. - The annual average diversion pressure has increased from 25.8% in 2024 to 31.0% in the first four months of 2025, indicating a long-term trend of increasing diversion pressure [6][7]. 3. Overlap Between Second-hand and New Housing Markets - The overlap rate between the two markets has decreased to 12% in April 2025, down from a peak of 15% in February [10][11]. - The overlap is highest in lower-tier cities, with three to four-tier cities showing a 34% overlap, indicating more intense competition between second-hand and new housing in these areas [11]. 4. Market Response - The overall demand for housing is declining, with the second-hand housing heat index at 63.8 in April 2025, down 3.2% year-on-year [18][20]. - The second-hand housing market has maintained a lead over the new housing market in terms of buyer interest, although the gap is narrowing [18][20].