二手房成交同比转正
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地产周速达:二手房周成交同比转正
HUAXI Securities· 2026-01-24 13:41
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The second - hand housing market has seen a significant increase in activity, with the year - on - year growth rate of transaction volume turning positive after 14 consecutive weeks of negative growth. Meanwhile, the new housing market continues to bottom out [1][2] - There are significant differences in the performance of the real estate market in first - tier, second - tier and third - tier cities, both in terms of transaction volume and price [3][4][5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Market Performance - **Second - hand housing market**: The transaction scale of the second - hand housing market has reached a recent high. This week, the transaction area of second - hand housing in 15 cities was 2.56 million square meters, a 12% week - on - week increase, and the year - on - year growth was 10%, ending the 14 - week decline [1] - **New housing market**: The new housing market continued to bottom out, and the transaction volume declined slightly again. This week, the transaction area of new housing in 38 cities was 1.86 million square meters, a 7% week - on - week decrease, and a 38% year - on - year decrease. The new housing transaction has had 17 consecutive weeks of year - on - year negative growth [2] 3.2 Performance in First - tier Cities - **Second - hand housing market**: Second - hand housing in first - tier cities has increased for two consecutive weeks, and the year - on - year increase has also turned positive. The combined transaction of second - hand housing in Beijing, Shanghai and Shenzhen increased by 10% week - on - week, and the overall year - on - year growth was 10%. Among them, Shenzhen had a year - on - year increase of 30%, Beijing 10% and Shanghai 3% [3] - **New housing market**: The new housing market in first - tier cities has slowly recovered from a low level, but the year - on - year decline is still significant. This week, the transaction increased by 5% week - on - week, but the current transaction scale is only 41% of the weekly high in 2025. The year - on - year decline was 29%, with Shanghai and Guangzhou showing relatively more resistance to decline, while Beijing and Shenzhen faced greater adjustment pressure [4] 3.3 Performance in Second and Third - tier Cities - **Second - tier cities**: The performance of second - hand housing in second - tier cities is better than that of new housing, and the year - on - year growth rate of second - hand housing has turned positive. The second - hand housing transaction increased by 16% week - on - week, with a year - on - year growth of 4%. The new housing transaction decreased by 12% week - on - week, and the year - on - year decline widened to 39% [5] - **Third - tier cities**: The second - hand housing transaction in third - tier cities has exceeded the high point of last year, and the post - holiday market activity exceeded expectations. The second - hand housing transaction increased by 8% week - on - week, with a year - on - year high - growth of 30%. The new housing market was weak, with a 9% week - on - week decline, and the year - on - year decline widened to 45% [5] 3.4 Housing Price Observation - According to the data of the National Bureau of Statistics, the month - on - month decline of second - hand housing prices in first - tier cities has narrowed, while the year - on - year decline of housing prices in all tiers of cities has generally widened. In December, the month - on - month decline of new commercial housing prices in 70 cities was 0.4%, and the month - on - month decline of second - hand housing prices was 0.7%. Among them, the month - on - month decline of first - tier cities was 0.9%, narrowing by 0.2 percentage points compared with the previous month. The year - on - year decline of second - hand housing prices in all tiers of cities has expanded [6] - Among first - tier cities, except for Beijing, the month - on - month decline of second - hand housing prices in other cities has narrowed. The year - on - year decline of all four cities has expanded, with Beijing having the largest adjustment range [7]