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华勤技术:多品类驱动增长,全球化布局彰显韧性-20250429
Orient Securities· 2025-04-29 06:23
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 80.01 CNY based on a 21x PE valuation for 2025 [2][5]. Core Insights - The company is expected to achieve a net profit of 39 billion CNY in 2025, 48 billion CNY in 2026, and 58 billion CNY in 2027, with a slight adjustment in gross margin predictions [2][9]. - The company has demonstrated resilience through a diversified product portfolio and a global supply chain strategy, which mitigates risks associated with market fluctuations [8]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue for 2023 is projected at 85.34 billion CNY, with a year-on-year decline of 7.9%, followed by a recovery with 28.8% growth in 2024, and further growth of 32.8% in 2025 [4][10]. - The company's gross margin is expected to decline slightly to 9.3% in 2024 but is projected to stabilize at 10.1% in 2026 and 2027 [4][10]. - The net profit margin is forecasted to be 3.2% in 2023, decreasing to 2.7% in 2024, and then stabilizing around 2.7% to 2.9% in the following years [4][10]. Business Segment Growth - The company has reported significant growth across various business segments, including a 13% increase in smart terminals, a 29% increase in high-performance computing, and a remarkable 188% growth in AIoT and other products [8]. - The automotive and industrial products segment also showed a 91% increase, indicating strong demand across diverse markets [8]. Global Expansion Strategy - The company has implemented a "China + VMI" global supply chain strategy, establishing manufacturing bases in Dongguan and Nanchang, with additional facilities in Vietnam, Mexico, and India [8]. - Approximately 50% of the company's revenue comes from overseas markets, with only about 10% directly from the U.S., reducing dependency on any single market [8].