2Q25 智能汽车交付8.1 万辆，ASP 环比升6.7%至25.4 万元。经调整净亏损继续收窄至3 亿元，管理层表 示年内有望实现单季度或单月盈利。我们维持2025/26 年汽车销量预测，分别交付39.8/70.0 万辆。2Q25 汽车业务毛利率环比升3.2ppts 至26.4%。我们上调2025/26 年汽车毛利率预测至26.0%/27.1%（前值 23.5%/24.2%），主要考虑到现有及后续车型（如明年首款增程式SUV）的产品力和同平台规模效应有 望继续拉升毛利率。我们预测小米汽车业务在4Q25 实现扭亏为盈。 智能手机业务：毛利率或随高端新品发布企稳回升。2Q25 智能手机毛利率相比我们之前的预测，下滑 的趋势更快。我们认为存储器涨价对毛利率的负面影响或将至少持续至2025 年底。我们下调2025/26 年 智能手机毛利率预测至11.7%/12.1%（前值12.3%/12.3%）。我们继续看好小米手机高端化趋势，预测手 机毛利率在4Q25 将随高端新机型发布企稳回升。 下调目标价至60 港元。我们微调2026 年汽车业务收入至1820 亿元（前值1,817 亿元）。考虑手机等业 务的不确定性，下调2 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that Xiaomi Group's automotive performance in Q2 is impressive, while the smartphone business adjustments are largely in line with expectations [1] - Xiaomi's Q2 revenue and adjusted net profit were 116 billion and 10.8 billion RMB respectively, meeting market expectations [1] - Automotive revenue increased by 40% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 26.4%, a historical high driven by average selling price growth and platform scale effects [1] Group 2 - Smartphone revenue decreased by 2% year-on-year, primarily due to the REDMI A5 launch lowering overseas average selling prices, while domestic average selling prices benefited from an increase in high-end model proportions [1] - Smartphone gross margin declined by 0.9 percentage points to 11.5% quarter-on-quarter, attributed to rising storage prices impacting mid-to-low-end models [2] - AIOT revenue grew by 45% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 22.5%, slightly down by 2.7 percentage points due to the 618 promotion [2] Group 3 - The company maintained a "buy" rating but adjusted the target price from 67 HKD to 60 HKD based on a 25x P/E for mobile and a 2.2x P/S for automotive business by 2026 [1] - The forecast for automotive revenue in 2026 was slightly adjusted to 182 billion RMB from a previous estimate of 181.7 billion RMB [2] - Revenue forecasts for 2025 and 2026 were lowered to 483 billion and 605.8 billion RMB respectively, along with adjusted earnings per share estimates for those years [2]

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs reported that Xiaomi Group-W (01810) second-quarter performance was largely in line with expectations, with a year-on-year revenue growth of 30% [1] Revenue Performance - Revenue increased by 30% year-on-year, driven by strong performance in Artificial Intelligence of Things (AIoT), which grew by 45%, exceeding Goldman Sachs and market forecasts by 2% and 8% respectively [1] - Electric vehicle sales offset weak smartphone sales, contributing positively to overall revenue [1] Profitability - Adjusted net profit increased by 75% year-on-year, surpassing Goldman Sachs' and market forecasts by 7% to 13% [1] - Due to increased R&D investment and higher income tax, adjusted net profit forecasts were revised down by 1% to 4% [1] Target Price and Rating - The target price was lowered from HKD 69 to HKD 65, while maintaining a "Buy" rating [1] Stock Performance - Over the past three months, Xiaomi's stock performance has been in line with index trends, with a year-to-date increase of 54% [1] - Concerns regarding the downward revision of smartphone revenue/gross margin estimates have been noted, as the company has consistently provided lower forecasts than the market since early 2025 [1] Future Outlook - There are worries about a slowdown in AIoT sales growth in the second half of the year due to diminishing incremental benefits from China's national subsidy program [1] - Since July, the increase in electric vehicle manufacturing capacity has been relatively slow, although there was a slight rise in delivery volumes in August [1] - Following two years of exceeding expectations and upward adjustments, the forecast adjustments for revenue and earnings per share have been moderate [1]

Core Viewpoint - The electric vehicle (EV) business has become the biggest highlight for Xiaomi in the latest quarter, with both Morgan Stanley and UBS emphasizing that EV deliveries will be a key driver for the stock price in the second half of the year [1][5][11]. Financial Performance - Xiaomi's Q2 2025 adjusted net profit reached 10.831 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 75.4%, marking the highest quarterly profit in history [3]. - Total revenue for Q2 reached 115.956 billion RMB, a year-on-year growth of 30% and a quarter-on-quarter growth of 4%, exceeding Morgan Stanley's expectations by 3% [15]. - The company's overall gross margin improved to 22.5%, up 1.8 percentage points year-on-year, but down 0.3 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [8]. Business Segment Analysis - The EV business showed a gross margin of 26.4%, significantly up by 3.3 percentage points quarter-on-quarter, indicating strong profit potential [8]. - AIoT business gross margin was 22.5%, up 2.8 percentage points year-on-year but down 2.7 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [9]. - The smartphone business faced challenges with a gross margin of 11.5%, down 0.7 percentage points year-on-year and 0.9 percentage points quarter-on-quarter, reflecting intense market competition [10]. Electric Vehicle Business Insights - UBS maintains a delivery forecast of 720,000 units for 2026, assuming full capacity operation of the second-phase factory [14]. - The average selling price of EVs increased by 6.4% quarter-on-quarter to 254,000 RMB, driven by high-end models SU7 Ultra and YU7 [11]. - The strong order intake for the YU7 model is expected to drive EV delivery volumes, which will be a key catalyst for stock price growth in the second half of the year [13]. Market Outlook - Morgan Stanley maintains an "Overweight" rating with a target price of 62 HKD, indicating an 18% upside potential from the current stock price [1][5]. - The company's diversified business strategy is proving effective, with the rapid development of the EV business opening new growth avenues [17].

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley believes that the explosive growth of Xiaomi's electric vehicle (EV) business is effectively compensating for the slowdown in its smartphone business, with the ramp-up of production capacity at the Beijing second factory in the second half of the year expected to be a catalyst for the stock price [2] Group 1: Financial Performance - Xiaomi's total revenue for Q2 reached 1159.56 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 30% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 4%, exceeding Morgan Stanley's expectations by 3% [9] - The AIoT business revenue was 387 billion RMB, a significant year-on-year increase of 45%, surpassing expectations by 18% [9] - The EV business revenue was 213 billion RMB, more than doubling year-on-year and exceeding estimates by 6% [9] - Smartphone business revenue was 455 billion RMB, a year-on-year decline of 2%, falling short of expectations by 8% [9] - Internet services revenue was 91 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 10%, but 5% below expectations [10] Group 2: Profitability and Margins - The overall gross margin for the company reached 22.5%, an increase of 1.8 percentage points year-on-year, but a decrease of 0.3 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [6] - The EV business gross margin was 26.4%, significantly increasing by 3.3 percentage points quarter-on-quarter, indicating strong profitability prospects [6] - The AIoT business gross margin was 22.5%, up 2.8 percentage points year-on-year but down 2.7 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [6] - The smartphone business gross margin was 11.5%, reflecting a year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter decline of 0.7 and 0.9 percentage points, respectively, due to intense market competition [7] Group 3: Future Outlook - The EV business is seen as the biggest highlight for Xiaomi in the current quarter, with average selling prices increasing by 6.4% to 254,000 RMB, driven by high-end models SU7 Ultra and YU7 [8] - Morgan Stanley analysts believe that the delivery volume of EVs will be a key driver for the stock price in the second half of the year, especially following strong orders for the YU7 model [8] - UBS maintains a delivery forecast of 720,000 units for 2026, assuming full capacity operation at the second factory, which requires stable production capacity by the end of Q4 [8][11]

Group 1: Macro and Financial Data Insights - In July, the growth of M1 and M2 exceeded market expectations, with M2 expanding by 8.8% year-on-year and M1 growing by 5.6%, up from 8.3% and 4.6% in June respectively [2][3] - New social financing in July was 1.16 trillion yuan, lower than the Bloomberg consensus of 1.63 trillion yuan, while new RMB loans decreased by 500 million yuan, indicating a shift in financing structure and seasonal factors [2][3] - The stock of social financing grew at a rate of 9.0% year-on-year, an increase from 8.9% in June, with seasonally adjusted month-on-month growth rising from 8.4% to 9.6% [2][3] Group 2: Banking Sector Analysis - The July social financing increment of 1.16 trillion yuan was below the expected 1.41 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 389.3 billion yuan [5] - The government bonds were the main support for social financing in July, while M1 growth showed a marginal recovery [5] - A new consumption loan subsidy policy is expected to stimulate the growth of consumer loans, indicating a positive outlook for the banking sector [5] Group 3: Company-Specific Insights - Tencent's Q2 revenue grew by 14.5% year-on-year, exceeding consensus expectations, with significant growth in value-added services, advertising, and fintech revenues [11] - The company is expected to benefit from the upcoming launch of several major shooting games, which could drive both player engagement and monetization [11] - Huatai Securities initiated coverage on Yuntianhua with a "buy" rating, citing its leading position in the phosphate industry and expected steady demand growth for fertilizers [15] Group 4: Technology and Robotics - The introduction of teaching-free robots is transforming the welding industry, addressing labor shortages and improving efficiency through advanced visual systems and welding software [7] - These robots are expected to penetrate more complex applications, such as shipbuilding, as technology continues to evolve [7] Group 5: Consumer and E-commerce Trends - SEA's Q2 revenue reached $5.26 billion, a 38.2% year-on-year increase, driven by strong performance in e-commerce and digital financial services [29] - The company anticipates continued growth in its e-commerce GMV, projecting a 25% year-on-year increase for Q3 [29] - Tencent Music's Q2 revenue was 8.44 billion yuan, up 17.9% year-on-year, benefiting from rapid growth in super memberships and strong performance in non-subscription services [27]

Core Viewpoint - UBS has lowered the target price for Xiaomi Group-W (01810) to HKD 60 while maintaining a "Neutral" rating, anticipating continued rapid growth in the AIoT business in the upcoming quarter [1] Group 1: AIoT Business Performance - The AIoT sales for the next quarter and the full year are projected to be RMB 36.6 billion and RMB 140.6 billion, respectively, representing year-on-year growth of 37% and 35% [1] Group 2: Smartphone Sales and Market Performance - Xiaomi's smartphone sales for the next quarter are estimated at 41 million units, showing a year-on-year increase of 0.5% and a quarter-on-quarter rise of 1.5% [1] - The Chinese market has seen an 8% year-on-year increase in sales, driven by subsidies and the 618 shopping festival [1] - The total smartphone sales for the year are expected to reach 175 million units, supported by gains in emerging markets and the mid-to-high-end market share in China [1] Group 3: Profitability and Margins - Due to the impact of the 618 promotional activities leading to a decrease in average selling price, along with the expanding contribution from emerging markets offsetting the ongoing high-end strategy, the smartphone gross margin for the second quarter is expected to remain stable at approximately 11.6% quarter-on-quarter [1]

Group 1 - UBS forecasts Xiaomi Group-W (01810) AIoT business to maintain rapid growth in Q2, predicting sales of 36.6 billion and 140.6 billion RMB for Q2 and the full year, representing year-on-year growth of 37% and 35% respectively [1] - The firm has lowered its earnings estimates for the group by 10.4% for Q2 and 5.5% for the full year, with the target price reduced from 62 HKD to 60 HKD, maintaining a "Neutral" rating [1] - Xiaomi's smartphone sales in Q2 reached 41 million units, showing a year-on-year increase of 0.5% and a quarter-on-quarter rise of 1.5%, with sales in the Chinese market boosted by subsidies and the 618 shopping festival, growing by 8% year-on-year [1] Group 2 - The company expects total smartphone sales for the year to reach 175 million units, benefiting from increased market share in emerging markets and the mid-to-high-end market in China [1] - Due to the impact of the 618 promotional activities leading to a decrease in average selling price, along with the expanding contribution from emerging markets offsetting the ongoing high-end strategy, the smartphone gross margin for Q2 is expected to remain stable at approximately 11.6% quarter-on-quarter [1]

Core Viewpoint - Huqin Technology (603296.SH), a leading ODM enterprise, announced a strategic investment of nearly 2.4 billion yuan to acquire a 6% stake in the A-share Sci-Tech Innovation Board company, Jinghe Integrated (688249.SH), aiming to enhance resource integration and collaboration within the industry chain [2][4]. Investment Details - The investment involves Huqin Technology purchasing approximately 120 million shares from Lichuang Innovation Investment Holdings at a price of 19.88 yuan per share, totaling around 2.393 billion yuan, which is about 10% lower than Jinghe's closing price on July 18 [3]. - Following the transaction, Huqin Technology will become the fourth largest shareholder of Jinghe Integrated, while Lichuang's stake will decrease to 13.08% [3][4]. Strategic Intent - Huqin Technology aims to deepen resource integration and explore potential collaborations in various business projects through this investment, reflecting confidence in Jinghe Integrated's future development and long-term investment value [4][5]. - The company plans to appoint a director to Jinghe Integrated and has secured a commitment from Lichuang to maintain a minimum shareholding of 8% for three years [4]. Company Background - Established in 2005, Huqin Technology has become a global leader in the ODM industry, serving major brands like Samsung, OPPO, and Xiaomi, with a diverse product line including smartphones, laptops, and AIoT products [5][6]. - The company reported a revenue of 109.878 billion yuan in 2024, marking a 28.76% year-on-year increase, and a net profit of 2.926 billion yuan, up 8.10% [6]. Recent Performance - In the first quarter of 2025, Huqin Technology achieved significant growth, with revenues and net profits reaching 34.998 billion yuan and 842 million yuan, respectively, reflecting year-on-year increases of 115.65% and 39.05% [6]. - The company's growth trajectory has been supported by strategic acquisitions, including a planned acquisition of 80% of Yiluda International for 2.85 billion HKD and a 65% stake in Nanchang Chunqiu for approximately 348 million yuan [7]. Global Expansion - Huqin Technology has established a dual supply system with core domestic bases and overseas VMI bases in Vietnam, Mexico, and India, to meet diverse customer demands and external uncertainties [7].

Core Viewpoint - The company Huqin Technology (603296.SH) is experiencing significant growth in its operating performance, driven by the global digital transformation and the explosion of artificial intelligence, leading to a positive impact on its business operations [2][3]. Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, Huqin Technology expects to achieve revenue between 830 billion and 840 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 110.7% to 113.2%. The projected net profit is between 18.7 billion and 19 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 44.8% to 47.2% [3][4]. - The company's revenue has grown from 308.81 billion yuan in 2018 to an expected 1,098.78 billion yuan in 2024, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 23.56%. Net profit has increased from 1.82 billion yuan in 2018 to an expected 29.26 billion yuan in 2024, with a CAGR of 58.87% [3][4]. Business Strategy - Huqin Technology employs a dual-driven model of "internal growth + external mergers and acquisitions" to expand its market presence and enhance profitability [2][4]. - The company focuses on core businesses such as smartphones and laptops, while rapidly developing its data center and automotive electronics sectors [4][5]. Research and Development - From 2022 to 2024, Huqin Technology's total R&D investment reached 147.67 billion yuan, with annual investments of 50.47 billion yuan, 45.48 billion yuan, and 51.72 billion yuan respectively [6][7]. - The company employs 16,568 R&D personnel, accounting for 28.44% of its total workforce [8]. Mergers and Acquisitions - In July 2024, Huqin Technology announced the acquisition of 80% of Easy Road Technology International for 28.50 billion Hong Kong dollars, aiming to integrate its strengths in smart product development with the target company's audio and acoustic technologies [6][7]. - The company also acquired 65% of Nanchang Spring and Autumn Electronics for approximately 3.48 billion yuan, further solidifying its market position [7].