1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The current core contradiction in the market lies in the intense game between the "weak reality" of the seasonal decline in cargo volume before the Spring Festival and the "strong expectation" of the escalation of geopolitical risks and the improvement of Asia - Europe trade relations. The market presents a pattern of "near - term weakness and far - term strength"[2]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Core Factors and Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Core Factors - The core contradiction is the game between the weak reality of pre - Spring Festival cargo volume decline and the strong expectation of geopolitical risks and trade improvement. The risk of the Red Sea crisis spreading to the Persian Gulf has increased, and macro - trade positives have strengthened the long - term expectations, while the weak pre - Spring Festival reality suppresses near - term contracts[2]. - The SCFI index continued to decline this week. The latest SCFI comprehensive index was 1316 points (-9.68%), with the European route at 1418 (-11%), the US West route at 1867 (-10%), and the US East route at 2605 (-10%)[2]. - Spot freight rates showed an obvious downward trend, with the price center shifting down by 10% from the third to the ninth week[3]. - In terms of valuation, the 02 contract price is currently about 15% lower than last year, and the 04 contract is about 17% lower. The 06 and 08 contracts have some upward space, but the profit - loss ratio is not ideal if the geopolitical crisis eases[4]. - The near - term trading logic focuses on the pricing depth of the "weak reality", and the near - term contracts are mainly volatile. The far - term trading logic is driven by the "strong expectation", and geopolitical risks and trade relations have pushed up far - term contracts[15][16]. 3.1.2 Trading - Type Strategy Recommendations This week, the market showed a pattern of "near - term pressure and far - term strength", with geopolitical sentiment dominating risk preference, and the weak pre - Spring Festival spot market restricting the upside of near - term contracts. The market is driven by expectations and has increased volatility[19]. 3.1.3 Industry Customer Operation Recommendations - For companies with full - capacity or under - performing cargo bookings, to prevent losses from falling freight rates, they can short container shipping index futures (EC2604) to lock in profits at an entry range of 1350 - 1300[21]. - For shipping companies facing increased empty - sailing or approaching the peak season, to prevent cost increases from rising freight rates, they can buy container shipping index futures (EC2604) to fix booking costs at an entry range of 1100 - 1150[21]. 3.1.4 Basic Data Overview - SCFIS: The latest value of the European route's 3 - period average was 1923.2967 (1.11% week - on - week), SCFI was 1316.75 (-9.68% week - on - week), and other routes also showed different degrees of decline[21]. - Other comprehensive freight rate indices: The FBX comprehensive route index was 2218.00 (-7.54% week - on - week), CICFI was 647.68 (0.91% week - on - week), etc.[22]. 3.2 This Week's Important Information 3.2.1 Bullish Information - Geopolitical risks have significantly escalated, with concerns about Red Sea and Strait of Hormuz navigation safety rising, and the long - term resumption of navigation expected to be postponed[42]. - Favorable trade relations: The India - EU free trade agreement and UK - China economic and trade cooperation are expected to benefit Asia - Europe route cargo volume in the long term[42]. - European bad weather has affected freight flow and port efficiency, intensifying short - term supply chain tension[42]. 3.2.2 Bearish Information - Spot freight rates have been continuously lowered by major shipping companies, reflecting pre - Spring Festival cargo - attracting pressure[43]. - Cargo volume has a seasonal decline due to the approaching Spring Festival, weakening fundamental support[43]. - The SCFI index has declined, objectively reflecting the decline in shipping prices in early February[43]. 3.3 Disk Interpretation 3.3.1 Unilateral Trends and Capital Movements This week, the market showed a pattern of "far - term stronger than near - term". The main contract EC2604 rebounded after getting support at around 1200 points, rising about 7.8% for the week, and the secondary main contract EC2606 was more strongly boosted by geopolitical sentiment, rising more than 9%. Trading volume remained active, and capital showed a trend of shifting from near - term to far - term contracts[44]. 3.3.2 Basis and Inter - Month Spread Structure - The basis: The price of the main futures contract EC2604 (about 1250 points) is deeply in discount to the current SCFIS spot index (1859.31 points), with a discount of over 600 points, reflecting the market's expectation of a decline in spot freight rates from February to April[47]. - The inter - month spread: The 02 - 04 inter - month spread weakened significantly this week. The 02 contract is basically priced, and the 04 contract is expected to strengthen due to the aforementioned bullish factors[47].