行业 集运指数日报 日期 2026 年 3 月 5 日 研究员：何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 18665641296 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3008762 研究员：黄雯昕(国债集运) 021-60635739 huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3051589 研究员：聂嘉怡(股指) 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 宏观金融团队 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 当日行情： 中东局势升温带动市场情绪走强，且在此背景下航司纷纷暂缓复航红海，集 运指数期货延续强势。从供需基本面看，春节后仍处运输淡季，短期关税问题或 难引发出口商抢运，另外光伏抢出口需求较为有限，而 3、4 月运力供给也仍处于 历史同期高位，不过红海复航计划受中东局势升温的影响而有所放缓，能够继续 消化运力压力。现货价格方面，头部航司包括 MSC、CMA、HPL 在 2 月上旬宣涨 3 月运价至大柜 3000 美元以上，但目前 3 月初的价格还是以沿用 2 ...

| 股指期货价差日报 | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1292号 | Z0016628 | 叶倩宁 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2026年3月5日 | 品种 | 全历史分位数 | 最新值 | 较前一日变化 | 历史1年分位数 | | | | | | | | | | | | 12.97 | -4.50 | 52.40% | 上期间处差 | 80.70% | 5.40 | H期现价差 | 4.73 | 90.90% | 82.70% | 期现价差 | | | | | | | 82.30% | IC期现价差 | -15,41 | 15.92 | 59,30% | IM期现价差 | -13.05 | 40.11 | 60.00% | 66.20% | 次月-当月 | -12.00 | -3.40 | 54.90% | 35.00% | | | 零月-当月 | -44.80 | 1.20 ...

行业 集运指数日报 日期 2026 年 3 月 4 日 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 | | | 表1：集运欧线期货3月3日交易数据汇总 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 | 前结算 价 | 开盘价 | 收盘价 | 结算价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 （%） | 成交量 | 持仓量 | 仓差 | | EC2604 | 1,393.9 | 1,500.0 | 1,644.8 | 1,591.3 | 250.9 | 18.00 | 17836 | 44074 | -2169 | | EC2605 | 1,611.9 | 1,699.0 | 1,902.0 | 1,835.3 | 290.1 | 18.00 | 593 | 1160 | -134 | | EC2606 | 1,848.9 | 1,951.0 | 2,181.7 | 2,086.1 | 332.8 | 18.00 | 3269 | 20446 | -321 | | EC2607 | 2,047.5 | 2, ...

南华期货集运产业周报 ——地缘扰动叠加中欧贸易量增长预期拉升远期定价 宋霁鹏（投资咨询证号：Z0016598 ） 联系邮箱：songjipeng@nawaa.com 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 2026年2月1日 第一章 核心因素及策略建议 1.1 核心因素 当前市场的核心矛盾在于"春节前季节性货量下滑的弱现实"与"地缘政治风险升级及亚欧贸易关系改善的强预 期"之间的激烈博弈。本周，红海危机外溢至波斯湾的风险显著提升，叠加印度-欧盟自贸协定落地、中英高层 互动等宏观贸易利多，共同强化了市场对长期绕行和货量潜力的预期，推动远月合约持续走强。然而，临近 春节，货主出货节奏放缓，船公司为保障装载率下调即期线上报价的"弱现实"也对近月合约形成压制，导致盘 面呈现"近弱远强"的分化格局。 上周scfi综合指数最新录得1316点（-9.68%）。其中，欧洲航线录得1418（-11%），美西航线录得1867 （-10%），美东航线2605（-10%）。本周scfi继续呈现加速下跌走势。 即期运价方面，趋势性下移较为明显。从线上报价的趋势走势来看，从第三周到第九周，价格重心下移 10%。线上week9报 ...

t 1 1 1 1 1 去法種也会会 -20 -3.0 -4.00 -5.00 -6 00 -8.00 2025-06-26 | 股指期货价差日报 | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1292号 | Z0016628 | 叶倩宁 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2026年1月30日 | 最新值 | 全历史分位数 | 品种 | 历史1年分位数 | 较前一日变化 | | | | | | | | | | | | F期现价差 | 30.13 | 15.32 | 99.50% | 98.50% | H期现价差 | 19.49 | 10.24 | 99.50% | 99.40% | 期现价差 | | | | | | | IC期现价差 | 83.70% | -0.24 | -21.08 | 94.6096 | IM期现价差 | -3.21 | 2.96 | 90.00% | 80.6096 | 次月- ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the given reports. 2. Core Views 2.1. Precious Metals - The short - term market for precious metals is affected by geopolitical situations and the upcoming Fed decision. Gold prices are expected to maintain a strong and volatile trend. It is recommended to take profits on gold long positions at high prices and buy out - of - the - money call options instead of taking long positions. [3] - For silver, rising raw material costs may reduce industrial demand, but new demand from AI and other fields may support prices. ETF holdings are falling due to regulatory restrictions, and short - term prices may experience sharp fluctuations. It is advisable to pay attention to risk - control measures and adopt a strategy of buying on dips with light positions. [3] - Platinum and palladium prices are supported by their macro - financial attributes and tight supply, and their price centers are rising in tandem with gold. However, the easing supply in the London spot market may limit the upside. It is recommended to buy on dips and sell at high prices within a day. [3] 2.2. Container Shipping - The container shipping market shows a downward trend in freight rates. The SCFIS and SCFI indices for major routes have declined, and most futures contracts have also decreased. Although there are some positive signs in fundamentals such as an increase in port punctuality and export volume, the overall market remains under pressure. [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Stock Index Futures Spread Daily Report - **Spot - Futures Spread**: F has a spot - futures spread of 12.51, H has 11.61, IC has - 1.33, and IM has - 24.95. Their historical 1 - year and all - time percentiles vary, and there are also changes compared to the previous day. [1] - **Inter - delivery Spread**: There are significant differences in inter - delivery spreads (such as next - month minus current - month, quarterly - month minus current - month, etc.) among different varieties, and their percentiles also show different levels. [1] - **Cross - Variety Ratio**: Ratios such as CSI 300/Shanghai Stock Exchange 50, CSI 1000/CSI 300, and others have their own values, changes, and percentiles. [1] 3.2. Treasury Bond Futures Spread Daily Report - **IRR and Basis**: Different varieties (TS, TF, T, TL) have their own implied repo rates (IRR) and basis values, along with changes compared to the previous day and their percentiles since listing. [2] - **Inter - delivery Spread**: Each variety has inter - delivery spreads (such as current - quarter minus next - quarter, next - quarter minus the quarter after next), with corresponding changes and percentiles. [2] - **Cross - Variety Spread**: Spreads between different varieties (TS - T, TF - T, etc.) are provided, along with their changes and percentiles. [2] 3.3. Precious Metals Spot - Futures Daily Report - **Domestic Futures Closing Prices**: For AU2604, AG2604, PT2606, and PD2606 contracts, their closing prices on January 27 and 26, price changes, and percentage changes are given. [3] - **Foreign Futures Closing Prices**: Closing prices, price changes, and percentage changes of COMEX gold, silver, NYMEX platinum, and palladium futures on January 27 and 26 are presented. [3] - **Spot Prices**: Spot prices of London gold, silver, platinum, and palladium, as well as Shanghai Gold Exchange's T + D products, are provided, along with their changes and percentage changes. [3] - **Basis**: The basis values of gold TD - Shanghai gold main contract, silver TD - Shanghai silver main contract, etc., their changes, and historical 1 - year percentiles are shown. [3] - **Price Ratios**: Ratios such as COMEX gold/silver, Shanghai Futures Exchange gold/silver, etc., their changes, and percentage changes are given. [3] - **Interest Rates and Exchange Rates**: Values, changes, and percentage changes of 10 - year and 2 - year US Treasury yields, 10 - year TIPS Treasury yields, US dollar index, and offshore RMB exchange rate are presented. [3] - **Inventory and Holdings**: Inventory and holding data of Shanghai Futures Exchange and COMEX for gold and silver, as well as ETF holdings, are provided, along with their changes and percentage changes. [3] 3.4. Container Shipping Industry Spot - Futures Daily Report - **Shipping Indices**: SCFIS (European and US - West routes) and SCFI (composite, European, US - West, and US - East routes) indices show their values, changes, and percentage changes on different dates. [5] - **Futures Prices and Basis**: Futures prices of different contracts (EC2602, EC2604, etc.) and the basis of the main contract are provided, along with their changes and percentage changes. [5] - **Fundamental Data**: Global container shipping capacity supply, port punctuality, port calls, monthly export volume, and overseas economic indicators (such as Eurozone PMI, EU consumer confidence index, US manufacturing PMI, etc.) are presented, along with their changes and percentage changes. [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information found 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Indian government will significantly reduce tariffs on EU imports, which is expected to save about 4 billion euros in annual tariffs for European products [2] - The People's Bank of China plans to expand the scope of macro - prudential policies and improve RMB cross - border use policies [2] - Trump plans to raise tariffs on South Korean imports, and South Korea is discussing countermeasures [3] - The increase in US core capital goods orders in November exceeded expectations, indicating a strong performance of the US economy in Q4 2025 [3] - The short - term upward space of the bond market is limited, but there may be room for compression of the long - term spread. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and consider a small - position layout for the long - end spread compression strategy [4][5] - The precious metals market has strong upward momentum, but the operation is difficult due to high volatility. It is recommended to enter or replenish long positions after the volatility decreases [6][8] - The container shipping index is expected to fluctuate weakly. Hedging positions should be held, and forward arbitrage profits between EC2604 and EC2608 contracts can be gradually reduced [9] 3. Summary by Relevant Content 3.1. Daily News - India will gradually reduce the tariff on EU automobiles from 110% to 10% with a quota of 250,000 vehicles per year, and will completely cancel auto parts tariffs in 5 - 10 years. Tariffs on machinery, chemicals, and pharmaceuticals will also be mostly removed. High tariffs on EU agricultural products will also be reduced or removed, saving about 4 billion euros in annual tariffs for European products [2] - The People's Bank of China will expand the scope of macro - prudential policies, judge potential financial risks, and improve RMB cross - border use policies [2] - Trump plans to raise tariffs on South Korean cars, timber, and pharmaceuticals to 25%, and South Korea is discussing countermeasures [3] - US core capital goods orders in November increased by 0.7% month - on - month, exceeding the expected 0.3%, indicating a strong performance of the US economy in Q4 2025 [3] 3.2. Variety Views 3.2.1. Treasury Futures - On Tuesday, the treasury bond market continued to fluctuate narrowly. Trump's plan to raise tariffs on South Korea had a muted impact on the bond market. The central bank conducted 402 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchases, with 324 billion yuan of reverse repos maturing, resulting in a net injection of 78 billion yuan. The money market was loose, with DR001 down 5BP to 1.36% and DR007 up 1BP to 1.58% [4] - Since mid - January, treasury bonds have been on a recovery path, mainly driven by the correction of pessimistic expectations. At the beginning of the year, treasury futures were under pressure due to expectations of stable growth and concerns about supply. After the regulatory authorities cooled the equity market in mid - January, the impact of risk appetite on the bond market weakened. The central bank's net injection of 700 billion yuan through MLF and the slower - than - expected issuance of local bonds have supported the bond market in the short term [4] - Currently, the bond market recovery is nearing its end, and the valuation is relatively neutral. Without new positive drivers, the short - term upward space may be limited. It is recommended to wait and see. The long - term spread between 30 - year and 10 - year treasury bonds is high, and investors can consider a small - position layout for the long - end spread compression strategy [5] 3.2.2. Precious Metals - In the Asian session today, the precious metals sector opened lower and moved higher, but with increased volatility and significant divergence. Domestic gold and silver rose 1.52% and 7.25% respectively, while platinum and palladium fell 4.61% and 2.08% respectively [6] - In the past two weeks, the precious metals sector has shown strong performance. Domestic gold, silver, platinum, and palladium have risen 17%, 65%, 32%, and 20% respectively since the beginning of the year. The short - term fluctuations of silver are affected by factors such as commodity position adjustment, Trump's "TACO" policy, and the issue of the Fed's independence [6] - Trump's "TACO" policy has little impact on the upward trend of precious metals. The issue of the Fed's independence remains complex, and the inventory shortage in the market continues. Although silver may have reached a short - term peak, the adjustment space is expected to be limited. It is recommended to enter or replenish long positions after the volatility decreases [7][8] 3.2.3. Container Shipping Index - On Tuesday, the main contract of the container shipping index closed slightly lower with reduced trading volume, and trading sentiment became more cautious. Before the Spring Festival, export transportation demand decreased, and shipping companies continued to cut prices to attract customers, putting pressure on the index. However, geopolitical risks in the Red Sea and the potential for pre - policy - adjustment export rush may support the index. Fundamentally, the spot market faces pressure from pre - Spring Festival cargo collection and sufficient capacity supply, and the index is expected to fluctuate weakly. Hedging positions should be held, and forward arbitrage profits between EC2604 and EC2608 contracts can be gradually reduced [9] 3.3. Future Key Data - Tonight at 23:00, the US January Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index will be released, with a previous value of 89.1 and a forecast of 90.6 [13] - Tomorrow at 23:30, the change in US EIA crude oil inventories for the week ending January 23 will be released, with a previous value of 3.602 million barrels [14]

| 股指期货价差日报 | 投资销售业务资格:证监许可【2011】1292号 | Z0016628 | 叶倩宁 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2026年1月27日 | 品种 | 最新值 | 较前一日变化 | 历史1年分位数 | 全历史分位数 | | | | | | | | | | | | F期现价差 | 12.44 | 5.73 | 98.70% | 91.40% | 97.50% | H期现价来 | 8.61 | 3.01 | 93.50% | 期现价差 | | | | | | | IC期现价差 | 32.90% | -36.69 | -104.73 | 66.80% | IM期现价差 | 22.70% | -76.23 | 62.60 | 55.00% | 次月-当月 | 5.60 | 0.40 | 99.10% | 74.90% | | | 李月-当月 | 96.70% | -12.20 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The provided reports do not mention industry investment ratings. 2. Report Core Views 2.1 Futures Index Spread Report - Provides data on futures index spreads including price differences between current and futures prices, and across different contract months for various stock index futures such as IF, IH, IC, and IM on January 27, 2026, along with historical percentile data [1]. 2.2 Treasury Bond Futures Spread Report - Presents data on treasury bond futures spreads including basis, inter - period spreads, and cross - variety spreads for TS, TF, T, and TL on January 27, 2026, and their historical percentile rankings since listing [2]. 2.3 Precious Metals Spot - Futures Report - Short - term precious metals market is expected to maintain a strong and volatile trend. Gold is showing increased upward momentum above the 20 - day moving average, and long positions should be held. Silver is driven by factors like capital sentiment, with a strong but volatile short - term trend. Platinum and palladium prices are rising due to macro - financial factors and supply constraints, and a low - buying strategy is recommended [4]. 2.4 Container Shipping Industry Spot - Futures Report - On January 26, 2026, the container shipping index showed declines in some routes. Futures prices of related contracts increased, and the basis of the main contract decreased. Fundamental data indicates a slight increase in global container shipping capacity supply, and some overseas economic indicators showed different trends [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Index Spread Report - **Price Differences**: IF current - futures spread is 12.44, up 5.73 from the previous day; IH is 8.61, up 3.01; IC is 32.90% (with a decrease of 36.69); IM is 22.70% (with a decrease of 76.23). For cross - period spreads, differences vary among different contract months [1]. - **Percentiles**: Historical 1 - year and full - history percentiles are provided for each spread, showing the relative position of the current spread value in historical data [1]. 3.2 Treasury Bond Futures Spread Report - **Basis**: TS basis is 1.3290 on January 26, 2026, up 0.0141; TF is 1.3355, up 0.0144; T is 1.3663, up 0.0117; TL is 0.2730 [2]. - **Inter - period Spreads**: Different inter - period spreads (e.g., current - season to next - season, current - season to next - next - season) for each type of treasury bond futures are presented, along with their changes and historical percentiles [2]. - **Cross - variety Spreads**: Spreads between different types of treasury bond futures (e.g., TS - TF, TS - T, TF - T) are given, with their values, changes, and historical percentiles [2]. 3.3 Precious Metals Spot - Futures Report - **Domestic Futures**: On January 26, 2026, AU2604 rose 27.68 (2.48%); AG2604 rose 2242 (8.98%); PT2606 rose 58.80 (8.57%); PD2606 rose 36.85 (7.40%) [4]. - **Foreign Futures**: COMEX gold rose 21.70 (0.44%); COMEX silver rose 0.63 (0.61%); NYMEX platinum fell 197.60 (-7.13%); NYMEX palladium fell 54.50 (-2.66%) [4]. - **Spot Prices**: London gold rose 28.57 (0.57%); London silver rose 0.53 (0.52%); spot palladium and other spot prices also had different changes [4]. - **Basis**: Gold TD - Shanghai gold main contract basis is 0.94, up 6.23; silver TD - Shanghai silver main contract basis and other basis data are provided, along with historical 1 - year percentiles [4]. - **Ratio**: Ratios such as COMEX gold/silver, SHFE gold/silver, NYMEX platinum/palladium, and GFE platinum/palladium are presented, with their changes [4]. - **Interest Rates and Exchange Rates**: 10 - year US Treasury yield fell 0.02 (-0.5%); 2 - year US Treasury yield fell 0.04 (-1.1%); 10 - year TIPS Treasury yield fell 0.02 (-1.0%); US dollar index fell 0.45 (-0.47%); offshore RMB exchange rate rose 0.0006 (0.01%) [4]. - **Inventory and Positions**: Changes in inventory and positions of precious metals in domestic and foreign exchanges and ETFs are reported [4]. 3.4 Container Shipping Industry Spot - Futures Report - **Shipping Index**: SCFIS (European route) fell 94.9 (-4.86%); SCFIS (US - West route) fell 11.0 (-0.84%); SCFI composite index fell 116.3 (-7.39%); SCFI (European), SCFI (US - West), and SCFI (US - East) also declined [6]. - **Futures Prices and Basis**: Futures prices of contracts such as EC2602, EC2604 (main contract), etc., increased. The basis of the main contract decreased by 61.9 (-8.59%) [6]. - **Fundamental Data**: Global container shipping capacity supply increased by 1.74 (0.05%); Shanghai port on - time rate increased by 1.81 (4.53%); Shanghai port berthing increased by 9.00 (2.61%); monthly export amount increased by 275.84 (8.35%); some overseas economic indicators had different changes [6].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints 1. Index Futures Spread - The report provides the latest values, changes from the previous day, and historical percentile data of the current - futures spreads and inter - period spreads of various index futures such as IF, IH, IC, and IM, as well as cross - variety ratios. [1] 2. Treasury Bond Futures Spread - It presents the latest values, changes, and historical percentile data of the basis, inter - period spreads, and cross - variety spreads of different treasury bond futures including TS, TF, T, and TL. [2] 3. Precious Metals Spot - Futures - The short - term precious metals market is expected to maintain a strong and volatile trend. Gold is recommended to hold long positions and sell out - of - the - money put options. Silver has strong short - term trends but large market volatility, and risk control should be emphasized. Platinum and palladium prices are rising due to macro - financial factors and supply shortages, and it is advisable to sell out - of - the - money options on platinum and palladium futures to earn volatility reduction benefits. [7] 4. Container Shipping Industry Spot - Futures - The settlement price indices and Shanghai export container freight rates of the container shipping industry have generally declined. The futures prices of some contracts have small fluctuations, and the basis of the main contract has a slight decrease. The global container shipping capacity supply remains stable, and some foreign trade - related indicators and overseas economic data have different degrees of change. [8] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Index Futures Spread - **Current - Futures Spreads**: For example, the IF current - futures spread is 6.70 with a historical 1 - year percentile of 97.10%. The IH current - futures spread is 5.61, down 2.47 from the previous day, with a historical 1 - year percentile of 85.70%. [1] - **Inter - Period Spreads**: Such as the IF next - month - current - month spread is 5.20 with a historical percentile of 99.10%. [1] - **Cross - Variety Ratios**: The CSI 500/CSI 300 ratio is 1.8267, up 0.0511, with a historical 1 - year percentile of 99.50%. [1] 2. Treasury Bond Futures Spread - **Basis**: The TS basis is 1.4225, up 0.0013 from the previous day, with a historical percentile of 17.60%. [2] - **Inter - Period Spreads**: The TS current - season - next - season spread is - 0.0320, up 0.0040, with a historical percentile of 18.40%. [2] - **Cross - Variety Spreads**: The TS - TF spread is - 3.4620, down 0.0350, with a historical percentile of 10.60%. [2] 3. Precious Metals Spot - Futures - **Domestic Futures Closing Prices**: The AU2604 contract closed at 1115.64 yuan/gram on January 23, up 2.58% from the previous day. [7] - **Foreign Futures Closing Prices**: The COMEX gold主力 contract closed at 4983.10 dollars/ounce on January 23, up 0.91% from the previous day. [7] - **Spot Prices**: The London gold price is 4981.31 dollars/ounce, up 0.87% from the previous day. [7] - **Basis**: The gold TD - Shanghai gold主力 basis is - 5.29, down 1.63 from the previous day, with a historical 1 - year percentile of 46.10%. [7] - **Price Ratios**: The COMEX gold/silver ratio is 48.26, down 5.98% from the previous day. [7] - **Interest Rates and Exchange Rates**: The 10 - year US Treasury yield is 4.24%, down 0.5% from the previous day. [7] - **Inventory and Positions**: The Shanghai Futures Exchange gold inventory is 102009, unchanged from the previous day. [7] 4. Container Shipping Industry Spot - Futures - **Container Shipping Indices**: The SCFIS (European route) settlement price index on January 19 is 1954.19, down 0.11% from the previous period. [8] - **Shanghai Export Container Freight Rates**: The SCFI comprehensive index on January 23 is 1457.86, down 7.39% from the previous period. [8] - **Futures Prices and Basis**: The EC2602 contract closed at 1717.7 points on January 23, up 0.59% from the previous day. The basis of the main contract is 815.9, down 0.07% from the previous day. [8] - **Fundamental Data**: The global container shipping capacity supply on January 25 is 3372.94 million TEU, unchanged from the previous day. The port on - time rate in Shanghai in December is 41.81, up 4.53% from the previous month. [8]