| 国债期货价差日报 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1292号 2025年10月10日 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 熊智健 | Z0019608 | | 种类 日期 | 品种 IRR (%) | | | | | | | | | | | | 最新值 | 较前一交易日变化 | 上市以来百分位数 | | 2025-10-09 | TS基美 1.5802 | | | | | | | | | | | | -0.0385 | -0.0013 | 25.00% | | 2025-10-09 | TF基差 1.7342 | | | | | | | | | | | | -0.0580 | 0.0173 | 48.90% | | 基差 | 2025-10-09 T基差 1.6100 | | | | | | | | | | | | 0. ...

| 股指期货价差日报 | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1292号 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 叶倩宁 | Z0016628 | 2025年10月9日 | 品种 | 最新值 | 较前一日变化 | 历史1年分位数 | 全历史分位数 | | | | | | | | | | 价差 | F期现价差 | -22 69 | -7.24 | 19.80% | 31.50% | | | | | | | | | | | | H期现价差 | 0.06 | -2.90 | 52.40% | 57.00% | 期现价差 | IC期现价去 | -121.97 | -3.61 | 6.90% | 1.00% | IM湖砌价采 | -168.76 | -8.33 | 35.00% | 6.30% | | 次月-当月 | -11.40 | 2.60 | 34.80% | 34.70% | 季月-当月 | ...

集装箱产业风险管理日报 2025/09/25 俞俊臣（投资咨询证号：Z0021065） 南华研究院投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 马士基10月中旬欧线现舱报价止降回升，且增幅较为明显；后两周，MSC欧线现舱报价跟进小幅回升。 EC风险管理策略建议 | 行为导向 | 情景分析 | 现货敞口 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 买卖方向 建议入场区间 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 舱位管理 已入手舱位，但运力偏饱满，或订舱货量不佳，旺季不 | 旺，担心运价下跌 | 多 | 为防止损失，可根据企业舱位，做空集运指数期货来 锁定利润 | EC2510 | 卖出 | 1250~1350 | | 成本管理 船司空班力度加大，或即将进入市场旺季，希望根据订单 | 情况进行订舱 | 空 | 为防止运价上涨而增加运输成本，可以在当前买入集 运指数期货，以提前确定订舱成本 | EC2510 | 买入 | 1000~1100 | | source： 南华期货 | | | | | | | 【核心矛盾】 今日集运指数（欧线）期货（EC）价格高开震荡。 ...

关注教会会 贵金属期现日报 | 股指期货价差日报 | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1292号 | 叶倩宁 | Z0016628 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025年9月25日 | 品种 | 全历史分位数 | 最新值 | 较前一日变化 | 历史1年分位数 | 价差 | | | | | | | | | | | -35.98 | 18.80% | 9.10% | 上期验价差 | 2.63 | H期现价差 | 85.80% | 82.70% | 5 49 | 4.66 | 期现价差 | | | | | | | -166,71 | IC期现价差 | 73.40 | 1.60% | 0.10% | IM期现价差 | -231.02 | 50.05 | 20.00% | 1.20% | 次月-当月 | -14.80 | -1,80 | 28.60% | 24.50% | | | 季月-崇月 ...

集装箱产业风险管理日报 2025/09/23 俞俊臣（投资咨询证号：Z0021065） 南华研究院投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 EC风险管理策略建议 | 行为导向 | 情景分析 | 现货敞口 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 买卖方向 建议入场区间 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 舱位管理 已入手舱位，但运力偏饱满，或订舱货量不佳，旺季不 | 旺，担心运价下跌 | 多 | 为防止损失，可根据企业舱位，做空集运指数期货来 锁定利润 | EC2510 | 卖出 | 1100~1200 | | 成本管理 船司空班力度加大，或即将进入市场旺季，希望根据订单 | | 空 | 为防止运价上涨而增加运输成本，可以在当前买入集 | EC2510 | 买入 | 900~1000 | | 情况进行订舱 | | | 运指数期货，以提前确定订舱成本 | | | | | source： 南华期货 | | | | | | | 【核心矛盾】 今日集运指数（欧线）期货（EC）价格先回落，后震荡略有上行。 截至收盘，EC各合约价格都有不同 程度回落。从交易所 ...

Report 1: Stock Index Futures Spread Daily Report Core View The report presents the latest values, historical 1 - year and full - history percentiles, and changes compared to the previous day of various stock index futures spreads, including IF, IH, IC, and IM [1]. Summary by Category - **Futures - Spot Spreads**: For example, the IF futures - spot spread is - 37.52, with a change of - 26.61 compared to the previous day, and it is at the 16.30% historical 1 - year percentile and 8.40% full - history percentile [1]. - **Inter - delivery Spreads**: Different inter - delivery spreads such as quarterly - monthly, far - monthly - quarterly, etc. for IF, IH, IC, and IM are provided, along with their changes and percentiles [1]. - **Cross - variety Ratios**: Ratios like CSI 500/CSI 300, IC/IF, etc. are reported, including their current values, changes, and percentiles [1]. Report 2: Treasury Bond Futures Spread Daily Report Core View The report shows the latest values, changes compared to the previous trading day, and percentiles since listing of various treasury bond futures spreads, including IRR, basis, inter - delivery spreads, and cross - variety spreads [3]. Summary by Category - **IRR and Basis**: For instance, the TF basis on 2025 - 09 - 19 is 1.2731, with a change of 0.0265 compared to the previous day, and it is at the 30.80% percentile since listing [3]. - **Inter - delivery Spreads**: Spreads between different delivery months for TS, TF, T, and TL are given, along with their changes and percentiles [3]. - **Cross - variety Spreads**: Spreads such as TS - TF, TS - T, etc. are presented, including their values, changes, and percentiles [3]. Report 3: Precious Metals Spot - Futures Daily Report Core View The report provides domestic and foreign futures closing prices, spot prices, basis, ratios, interest rates, exchange rates, inventory, and positions of precious metals (gold and silver) [5]. Summary by Category - **Futures and Spot Prices**: Domestic AU2512 and AG2512 contracts, and foreign COMEX gold and silver contracts' closing prices, along with their changes and percentage changes, are reported. Spot prices of London gold and silver, and Shanghai Gold Exchange's T + D contracts are also given [5]. - **Basis and Ratios**: Basis values between different spot and futures prices, and ratios such as COMEX gold/silver and SHFE gold/silver are presented, including their changes [5]. - **Interest Rates, Exchange Rates, Inventory, and Positions**: 10 - year and 2 - year US Treasury yields, US dollar index, offshore RMB exchange rate, and inventory and positions of precious metals are reported, along with their changes [5]. Report 4: Container Shipping Industry Spot - Futures Daily Report Core View The report offers spot quotes, container shipping indices, futures prices, basis, and fundamental data of the container shipping industry [7]. Summary by Category - **Spot Quotes**: Spot quotes of shipping from Shanghai to Europe by different shipping companies, including Maersk, CMA CGM, etc., are provided, along with their changes and percentage changes [7]. - **Container Shipping Indices**: Settlement price indices such as SCFIS (European and US West routes) and Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) are reported, including their changes and percentage changes [7]. - **Futures Prices and Basis**: Futures prices of different contracts (EC2602, EC2604, etc.) and the basis of the main contract are given, along with their changes and percentage changes [7]. - **Fundamental Data**: Data on shipping capacity supply, port performance in Shanghai, monthly export amount, overseas economic indicators (e.g., Eurozone PMI, US manufacturing PMI), and OECD leading indicators are presented, including their changes and percentage changes [7].

当周影响EC价格走势的核心因素在于欧线现舱报价已降至近年来的新低。延续此前逻辑我们认为当周主 流船司10月初现舱报价持续下行，当前世界排名第二的船司——马士基欧线小柜现舱报价已跌破九百美元， 且赫伯罗特、ONE两家船司小柜现舱报价也已跌破一千美元，跟进下调力度，期货价格的估值持续下行，且 就当前来看，集运市场在十一月前仍将处于传统淡季，欧指期货价格维持震荡偏弱走势的可能较大。我们可 以看到，EC价格与欧线现舱报价价格整体呈现高度的正相关性，后期可继续关注船司欧线现舱报价变动和欧 线市场基本面。此外，也需关注船司是否会发布涨价函以维持利润水平。 欧线大柜现舱报价与EC主力合约收盘价 source： Wind、GeekYum、南华研究 点 美元/FEU EC主力合约周度收盘价 上海至鹿特丹40英尺现舱报价均值(右轴) 24/06 24/07 24/08 24/09 24/10 24/11 24/12 25/01 25/02 25/03 25/04 25/05 25/06 25/07 25/08 25/09 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 ...

| 股指期货价差日报 | 投资咨询业务资格：征监许可【2011】1292号 2025年0月22日 | 叶倩宁 | Z0016628 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 最新值 | 历史1年分位数 | 品种 | 全历史分位数 | 价差 | 较前一日变化 | F期现价差 | -37.52 | -26.61 | 16.30% | 8.40% | | | | | | | H期现价差 | 期现价差 | 3 66 | 5.68 | 75.00% | 78,10% | IC期现价差 | -186.35 | 0.40% | 0.00% | -158.07 | IM期现价差 | -247.39 | -225.79 | 5.0096 | 0.10% | | 次月-当月 | -23.00 | -11.80 | 19.20% | 19.50% | 李月-当月 | -45.60 | -6,60 | 19.60% | 24. ...

Report Information - Report Title: Container Industry Risk Management Daily Report - Date: September 16, 2025 - Analyst: Yu Junchen [1] Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core View - The container shipping index (European line) futures opened higher and fluctuated, with a decline near the close. Except for EC2510, all other contract prices rose to varying degrees. In the short term, the near - month contract futures prices are likely to fluctuate and decline, and high - short opportunities should be monitored [3]. EC Risk Management Strategy Position Management - For those with existing positions but full capacity or poor booking volume, worried about falling freight rates (long spot exposure), it is recommended to short container shipping index futures (EC2510) to lock in profits at an entry range of 1250 - 1350 [2]. Cost Management - For those facing increased blank sailings by shipping companies or approaching the peak season, and wanting to book cabins based on orders (short spot exposure), it is recommended to buy container shipping index futures (EC2510) at an entry range of 1000 - 1100 to lock in booking costs in advance [2]. Market Analysis Core Contradiction - The futures prices of the container shipping index (European line) were affected by factors such as reaching short - term lows, sentiment, and the commodity market. The spot cabin quotes (except Maersk) were basically stable, but Maersk's European line spot cabin quotes continued to decline, and the cargo volume in the container shipping market was still relatively insufficient [3]. Long - Bias Interpretation - On September 14, Hamas suspended negotiations on a cease - fire and the exchange of detainees in the Gaza Strip with Israel [4]. Short - Bias Interpretation - Maersk's new weekly European line spot cabin quotes continued to decline, with the 20 - foot container price falling below $900. The basis of EC contracts showed different degrees of decline [5]. Price and Spread Data EC Contracts - On September 16, 2025, EC2510 closed at 1169.7, up 0.57% daily and down 7.80% weekly; EC2512 closed at 1673.8, up 1.06% daily and down 0.54% weekly; EC2602 closed at 1572.1, up 3.64% daily and 2.93% weekly; EC2604 closed at 1283.7, up 2.69% daily and 2.15% weekly; EC2606 closed at 1471.6, up 2.77% daily and 2.59% weekly; EC2608 closed at 1625.9, up 1.84% daily and 1.11% weekly [5][6]. Price Spreads - The price spreads between different EC contracts also showed corresponding changes, such as EC2510 - 2602 being - 402.4, down 48.6 daily and 143.7 weekly [5]. Shipping Quotes Maersk Quotes - For Maersk's Shanghai - Rotterdam routes, the 20GP and 40GP quotes showed different trends. For example, on October 1, the 20GP opening quote was $882, down $99 from the previous week, and the 40GP opening quote was $1470, down $157 from the previous week [8]. Global Freight Index - SCFIS: European line decreased by 8.06% to 1440.24 points; SCFIS: US - West line increased by 37.67% to 1349.84 points; SCFI: European line decreased by 12.24% to $1154/TEU; SCFI: US - West line increased by 8.27% to $2370/FEU; XSI: European line decreased by 5.75% to $2083/FEU; XSI: US - West line increased by 10.0% to $2487/FEU; FBX composite freight index decreased by 2.82% to $1967/FEU [9]. Port Data Global Port Waiting Time - The waiting times at ports such as Hong Kong, Shanghai, and Yantian showed different changes on September 15 compared to September 14. For example, the waiting time at Hong Kong Port decreased by 0.251 days to 1.401 days [14]. Ship Speed and Waiting Ships - The speeds of 8000 +, 3000 +, and 1000 + container ships decreased slightly on September 15 compared to September 14, and the number of container ships waiting at the Suez Canal port anchor remained at 10 [22].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views The reports present a comprehensive analysis of various financial products including stock index futures, treasury bond futures, precious metals, and container shipping. They offer daily updates on price differentials, historical percentile rankings, and price movements, which can assist investors in understanding market trends and making investment decisions. 3. Summary by Report Type Stock Index Futures Spread Daily Report - **Price Differentials**: Provides price differentials for various stock index futures contracts such as IF, IH, IC, and IM, including spot - futures spreads and inter - period spreads. For example, the IF spot - futures spread is 2.78, and the IF inter - period spread (next month - current month) is - 9.40 [1]. - **Historical Percentiles**: Presents historical 1 - year and all - time percentiles for each spread, which helps investors assess the relative position of current spreads in historical data. For instance, the historical 1 - year percentile of the IF spot - futures spread is 69.60% [1]. - **Cross - Variety Ratios**: Offers ratios between different stock index futures, like IC/IF, IC/IH, and IF/IH, along with their historical percentiles [1]. Treasury Bond Futures Spread Daily Report - **Basis and IRR**: Reports the basis and implied repo rate (IRR) for different treasury bond futures contracts (TS, TF, T, TL). For example, the TS basis on September 16, 2025, is 1.5336, with an IRR change of - 0.0395 [2]. - **Inter - Period Spreads**: Provides inter - period spreads for different contracts, such as the TS inter - period spread (current quarter - next quarter) of 0.0660 on September 16, 2025 [2]. - **Cross - Variety Spreads**: Presents cross - variety spreads between different treasury bond futures, like TS - TF, TS - T, etc. For example, the TS - TF spread on September 16, 2025, is - 3.3810 [2]. Precious Metals Spot - Futures Daily Report - **Futures and Spot Prices**: Reports domestic and foreign futures closing prices, spot prices, and their changes for gold and silver. For example, the AU2510 contract price increased by 10.48 (1.26%) on September 16, 2025, compared to the previous day [5]. - **Basis and Ratios**: Provides basis values and ratios between different precious metal products, along with their historical percentiles. For instance, the gold TD - Shanghai gold main contract basis is - 3.98, with a historical 1 - year percentile of 16.00% [5]. - **Interest Rates, Exchange Rates, and Inventories**: Reports interest rates, exchange rates, and inventory data for precious metals. For example, the 10 - year US Treasury yield decreased by 0.01 ( - 0.2%) [5]. Container Shipping Industry Spot - Futures Daily Report - **Spot Quotes and Indexes**: Reports spot quotes for Shanghai - Europe shipping routes and various shipping indexes, including their changes. For example, the SCFIS (European route) decreased by 116.2 ( - 7.47%) from September 8 to September 15 [7]. - **Futures Prices and Basis**: Provides futures prices and basis values for container shipping futures contracts. For example, the EC2602 contract price increased by 55.2 (3.64%) from September 15 to September 16, and the basis (main contract) decreased by 155.8 ( - 125.18%) [7]. - **Fundamental Data**: Reports fundamental data such as global container shipping capacity supply, port - related indicators, and overseas economic data. For example, the global container shipping capacity supply remained unchanged at 3305.11 million TEU on September 17 compared to the previous day [7].