Summary of the 2026 Asia Economics Outlook Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the economic outlook for Asia, particularly the recovery from technology to non-technology sectors, highlighting the expansion of recovery across various industries [3][4][13]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Recovery Expansion**: The recovery is broadening, with non-technology exports rebounding, leading to improved capital expenditure momentum and better labor market conditions, which in turn boosts consumption [3][4]. 2. **GDP Growth Projections**: - Asia's real GDP growth is expected to rise from 4.3% in Q4 2025 to 4.7% in Q4 2026 [3][35]. - Nominal GDP growth for Asia (excluding China) is projected to rebound from 5.5% in Q4 2025 to 7.2% in Q4 2026 [3][35]. 3. **Inflation Trends**: - Inflation pressures are expected to ease in 2026, with overall inflation in Asia (excluding Japan) projected to rise slightly but remain within central banks' comfort zones [3][4][49]. - In China, inflation is anticipated to improve moderately, with a complete exit from deflation expected by 2027 [3][4][51]. 4. **Monetary Policy Outlook**: Central banks are nearing the end of the rate-cutting cycle, with most expected to maintain rates steady in 2026, except for Australia, which may need further easing [4][35]. 5. **Risks to Growth**: - Upside risks include stronger private sector spending in the U.S. and faster-than-expected adoption of AI, which could enhance productivity [4]. - Downside risks involve a potential mild recession in the U.S. that could negatively impact non-technology exports in Asia [4]. Additional Important Insights 1. **Technology vs. Non-Technology Exports**: - While technology exports have been strong, they account for only about 25% of total exports, limiting their spillover effects on the broader economy [3][13]. - Non-technology exports, which make up 75% of total exports, are expected to benefit from easing trade tensions and monetary easing effects [3][4][13]. 2. **Capital Expenditure**: - The improvement in non-technology exports is anticipated to positively influence capital expenditure, with growth expected to rise to 3.7% in H1 2026 and further accelerate to 4.4% in H2 2026 [27][29]. 3. **Consumer Spending**: - A dual recovery in exports and capital spending is expected to enhance labor market conditions, leading to a rebound in previously weak disposable income consumption [31][33]. 4. **Country-Specific Insights**: - **China**: Expected to see real GDP growth improve but nominal GDP growth remains subdued due to ongoing real estate weakness [45]. - **India**: Projected to have the strongest nominal GDP growth in Asia, driven by tax cuts and improved consumer sentiment [45]. - **Japan**: Expected to maintain strong nominal GDP growth supported by expansionary fiscal policies [46]. - **Korea**: Anticipated recovery in consumption driven by improved real income and fiscal support [46]. - **ASEAN**: Economic performance is expected to be mixed, with Malaysia and Singapore benefiting from non-tech export recovery, while Indonesia and Thailand face challenges [47]. Conclusion The 2026 Asia Economics Outlook presents a cautiously optimistic view of the region's economic recovery, driven by a shift from technology to non-technology sectors, with significant implications for GDP growth, inflation, and consumer spending across various Asian economies [3][4][35].

7月份，全球制造业PMI为49.3%，较上月下降0.2个百分点。(完) 综合数据变化，亚洲制造业整体保持扩张态势，继续成为支撑全球经济复苏的主要动力。亚洲开发银行 最新报告预期46个"发展中亚洲"经济体2025年经济增速为4.7%，意味着亚洲经济整体增速仍然相对较 高，但也较4月份的预测下降0.2个百分点。亚洲开发银行下调预测增速的主要考虑是美国关税政策、全 球贸易不确定性以及需求不足的影响。主要国际组织均看好中国经济恢复前景。中国与世界各国本着互 利共赢的原则，在不同领域推进全球经济深化合作，也将成为亚洲乃至世界经济恢复的持续动力。 中新网北京8月6日电 (记者 阮煜琳)中国物流与采购联合会6日发布数据显示，7月份，亚洲制造业采购 经理指数(PMI)为50.5%，较上月小幅下降0.2个百分点，连续3个月在50%以上。 从主要国家来看，中国制造业PMI较上月下降。印度制造业PMI升至59%以上。东盟国家中，泰国、菲 律宾和越南制造业PMI较上月上升，且指数均在50%以上；新加坡、印度尼西亚、马来西亚和缅甸制造 业PMI均在50%以下。日本和韩国制造业PMI较上月均有不同程度下降，均在49%以下。 ...