Core Insights - The report from Guosheng Securities indicates that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) is expected to remain flat in 2025 compared to the previous year, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) is projected to decline by 2.6% [1] Group 1: CPI Trends - CPI has rebounded for four consecutive months, reaching the highest level since March 2023, with core CPI maintaining above 1% for the same duration [1] - Prices of core goods such as household appliances and gold jewelry continue to show strength [1] Group 2: PPI Trends - PPI has increased for three consecutive months, with an expanding growth rate, driven primarily by the non-involution sector and the metals industry [1] - The oil and petrochemical industry chain prices continue to decline [1] Group 3: Future Projections - For 2026, the report anticipates a continuation of the price recovery trend observed in the latter half of 2025, influenced by factors such as the "old-for-new" policy, narrowing rental declines, and rising gold and service prices [1] - Core CPI is expected to remain strong, with a projected year-on-year central tendency of around 0.7%, influenced by gold jewelry prices contributing approximately 0.3% to the CPI if the London gold price averages $4,500 per ounce in 2026 [1] - PPI is projected to have a year-on-year central tendency of around -0.4%, supported by rising prices in coal, steel, lithium carbonate, and copper due to demand from non-involution, energy storage, and AI-related sectors [1]

Summary of the 2026 Asia Economics Outlook Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the economic outlook for Asia, particularly the recovery from technology to non-technology sectors, highlighting the expansion of recovery across various industries [3][4][13]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Recovery Expansion**: The recovery is broadening, with non-technology exports rebounding, leading to improved capital expenditure momentum and better labor market conditions, which in turn boosts consumption [3][4]. 2. **GDP Growth Projections**: - Asia's real GDP growth is expected to rise from 4.3% in Q4 2025 to 4.7% in Q4 2026 [3][35]. - Nominal GDP growth for Asia (excluding China) is projected to rebound from 5.5% in Q4 2025 to 7.2% in Q4 2026 [3][35]. 3. **Inflation Trends**: - Inflation pressures are expected to ease in 2026, with overall inflation in Asia (excluding Japan) projected to rise slightly but remain within central banks' comfort zones [3][4][49]. - In China, inflation is anticipated to improve moderately, with a complete exit from deflation expected by 2027 [3][4][51]. 4. **Monetary Policy Outlook**: Central banks are nearing the end of the rate-cutting cycle, with most expected to maintain rates steady in 2026, except for Australia, which may need further easing [4][35]. 5. **Risks to Growth**: - Upside risks include stronger private sector spending in the U.S. and faster-than-expected adoption of AI, which could enhance productivity [4]. - Downside risks involve a potential mild recession in the U.S. that could negatively impact non-technology exports in Asia [4]. Additional Important Insights 1. **Technology vs. Non-Technology Exports**: - While technology exports have been strong, they account for only about 25% of total exports, limiting their spillover effects on the broader economy [3][13]. - Non-technology exports, which make up 75% of total exports, are expected to benefit from easing trade tensions and monetary easing effects [3][4][13]. 2. **Capital Expenditure**: - The improvement in non-technology exports is anticipated to positively influence capital expenditure, with growth expected to rise to 3.7% in H1 2026 and further accelerate to 4.4% in H2 2026 [27][29]. 3. **Consumer Spending**: - A dual recovery in exports and capital spending is expected to enhance labor market conditions, leading to a rebound in previously weak disposable income consumption [31][33]. 4. **Country-Specific Insights**: - **China**: Expected to see real GDP growth improve but nominal GDP growth remains subdued due to ongoing real estate weakness [45]. - **India**: Projected to have the strongest nominal GDP growth in Asia, driven by tax cuts and improved consumer sentiment [45]. - **Japan**: Expected to maintain strong nominal GDP growth supported by expansionary fiscal policies [46]. - **Korea**: Anticipated recovery in consumption driven by improved real income and fiscal support [46]. - **ASEAN**: Economic performance is expected to be mixed, with Malaysia and Singapore benefiting from non-tech export recovery, while Indonesia and Thailand face challenges [47]. Conclusion The 2026 Asia Economics Outlook presents a cautiously optimistic view of the region's economic recovery, driven by a shift from technology to non-technology sectors, with significant implications for GDP growth, inflation, and consumer spending across various Asian economies [3][4][35].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Insights - The company reported a 67% year-on-year increase in net profit attributable to shareholders for Q3 2025, driven by the expansion of NAS new products and significant growth in overseas markets [7] - The company's total revenue for Q1-Q3 2025 reached 6.36 billion yuan, a 48% increase year-on-year, with Q3 revenue alone at 2.51 billion yuan, reflecting a 60% year-on-year growth [7] - The gross margin and net margin for Q3 2025 were 37.2% and 7.7%, respectively, showing improvements due to high growth in overseas business [7] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2023A: 4.803 billion yuan - 2024A: 6.170 billion yuan - 2025E: 9.183 billion yuan - 2026E: 12.494 billion yuan - 2027E: 16.379 billion yuan - Net profit projections are: - 2023A: 387.52 million yuan - 2024A: 462.28 million yuan - 2025E: 688.32 million yuan - 2026E: 957.84 million yuan - 2027E: 1,273.62 million yuan [1][8] - The report indicates an upward revision of net profit expectations for 2025-2027, now projected at 6.9 billion, 9.6 billion, and 12.7 billion yuan, respectively [7] Market and Product Insights - The company has become the leading online market player in the NAS segment in China, with a 125% year-on-year revenue growth in storage products for H1 2025 [7] - The introduction of new products, including upgraded charging devices and AI headphones, has contributed to revenue acceleration [7] - The company has successfully expanded its distribution channels, entering major retail markets in the US and Europe [7]