Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core View of the Report - In October 2025, China's CPI and core CPI both rose 0.2% month-on-month, and PPI rose 0.1% month-on-month, indicating a mild recovery in the inflation level. Due to base effects, the year-on-year CPI data for November is expected to show a significant rebound, while the year-on-year PPI data will remain roughly flat. China's economic activity continues to be in a mild state [5][16][17] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs CPI Analysis Year-on-Year Data - In October, the national consumer price index (CPI) rose 0.2% year-on-year, against a market expectation of a 0.1% decline and a previous decline of 0.3%. From January to October, the average national consumer price decreased 0.1% compared with the same period of the previous year [2][6] - Food prices in October decreased 2.9% year-on-year, with the previous decrease being 4.4%, showing a significant narrowing of the year-on-year decline. Non-food prices rose 0.9% year-on-year, compared with a 0.7% increase in September [2][6] - Core CPI rose 1.2% year-on-year in October, compared with a 1.0% increase in September, and its year-on-year increase has been expanding for the past six months [2][6] - Consumer goods prices decreased 0.2% year-on-year in October, compared with a 0.8% decrease in September. Service prices rose 0.8% year-on-year, compared with a 0.6% increase in September [2][6] Month-on-Month Data - In October, CPI rose 0.2% month-on-month, compared with a 0.1% increase in the previous period. Food prices rose 0.3% month-on-month, rising for three consecutive months, with the previous increase being 0.7%. Non-food prices rose 0.2% month-on-month, compared with a 0.1% decrease in the previous period [3][7] - Consumer goods prices rose 0.2% month-on-month in October, compared with a 0.3% increase in the previous period. Affected by the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival, service prices rose 0.2% month-on-month in October, compared with a 0.3% decrease in September [3][7] - Core CPI rose 0.2% month-on-month in October, compared with a flat level in September [3][7] Influencing Factors - The rapid rise of the agricultural product wholesale price 200 index in October this year promoted the month-on-month increase of CPI in October. The increase in agricultural product prices in November compared with the same period last year will help drive the year-on-year increase of CPI in November [9] - Domestic refined oil prices were reduced twice in October. The energy price in November is likely to have a downward impact on the month-on-month CPI [9] PPI Analysis Year-on-Year Data - In October, the national industrial producer price index (PPI) decreased 2.1% year-on-year, against a market expectation of a 2.3% decrease and a previous decrease of 2.3%. From January to October, the average PPI decreased 2.7% compared with the same period of the previous year [3][10] - Production material prices decreased 2.4% year-on-year in October, affecting the overall level of industrial producer prices to decrease by about 1.77 percentage points. Among them, mining industry prices decreased 7.8% year-on-year, raw material industry prices decreased 2.5% year-on-year, and processing industry prices decreased 1.9% year-on-year [10] - The year-on-year decline in ex-factory prices was relatively large in industries such as coal mining and washing, oil and gas extraction, chemical fiber manufacturing, etc. The year-on-year increase in ex-factory prices was relatively large in industries such as non-ferrous metal ore mining and dressing, non-ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing [10] Month-on-Month Data - In October, PPI rose 0.1% month-on-month, the first month-on-month positive growth this year, compared with a flat level in the previous period. Production material prices rose 0.1% month-on-month, compared with a flat level in the previous period [3][11] - The month-on-month increase in prices was relatively large in industries such as non-ferrous metal ore mining and dressing, non-ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing, coal mining and washing, etc. The month-on-month decline in prices was relatively large in industries such as oil and gas extraction, ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing, chemical fiber manufacturing, etc. [4][12] - In October, the month-on-month change in consumer goods prices was flat, compared with a 0.2% decrease in the previous period. Among them, food prices decreased 0.1% month-on-month, clothing prices decreased 0.1% month-on-month, general daily necessities prices rose 0.7% month-on-month, and durable consumer goods prices decreased 0.3% month-on-month [13] PMI and Service Industry Index - In October, China's manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) was 49.0%, remaining below the boom-bust line for the seventh consecutive month, compared with 49.8% in the previous period. The new order index in October was 48.8%, compared with 49.7% in the previous period, indicating a decline in manufacturing market demand [5][16][17] - In October, the service industry business activity index was 50.2%, compared with 50.1% in the previous month. The service industry sales price index was 47.7%, compared with 47.2% in the previous period. The service industry new order index was 46.0%, compared with 46.7% in the previous period [5][17]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - In October 2025, the national consumer price index (CPI) increased by 0.2% year-on-year, with food prices down 2.9% and non-food prices up 0.9%. The average CPI from January to October decreased by 0.1% compared to the same period last year [4]. - The national producer price index (PPI) for industrial products decreased by 2.1% year-on-year in October 2025, with the decline narrowing by 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, and the month-on-month change turned from flat to an increase of 0.1%. The average PPI from January to October decreased by 2.7% compared to the same period last year, and the purchase price of industrial producers decreased by 3.2% [4]. - China's gold reserves at the end of October 2025 were 74.09 million ounces, an increase of 300,000 ounces from the end of August, showing a continuous increase for 12 months. The scale of foreign exchange reserves at the end of October was US$3.3433 trillion, an increase of US$470 million from the end of September, with a growth rate of 0.14% [4]. - From January to September 2025, the total profit of industrial enterprises above designated size reached 5.3732 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.2%. The operating income was 102.08 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.4% [5]. - In October 2025, the manufacturing PMI was 49%, a significant decrease of 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a seasonal decline in the manufacturing prosperity level. The non-manufacturing business activity index was 50.1%, an increase of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, rising to the expansion range [5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs National Economic Accounting - The GDP quarterly year-on-year growth rates from Q2 2023 to Q3 2025 were 6.5%, 5%, 5.3%, 5.3%, 4.7%, 4.6%, 5.4%, 5.4%, 5.2%, and 4.8% respectively. Different industries showed varying growth trends during this period [7]. - The contributions of different industries to the GDP growth rate also changed over time. For example, the contribution of the primary industry, secondary industry, and tertiary industry to the constant-price GDP year-on-year growth rate and the pull effect on GDP showed different trends from 2013 to 2025 [13]. Industry - The year-on-year growth rates of added value in different industries showed fluctuations. For example, the coal mining and washing industry, oil and gas extraction industry, and other industries had different growth rates from August 2024 to September 2025 [22]. - The output of major industrial products also showed different trends. For example, the output of crude oil, coal, steel, and other products changed from September 2024 to September 2025 [24]. - In September 2025, China's total social electricity consumption was 888.6 billion kilowatt-hours, a year-on-year increase of 4.5%. The electricity consumption of different industries also showed different growth trends [31]. - From January to September 2025, the total profit of industrial enterprises above designated size reached 5.3732 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.2%. Different industries had different profit growth rates, with some industries showing growth and others showing decline [5][35]. - As of the end of September 2025, the finished product inventory of industrial enterprises above designated size was 6.71 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.8%. The inventory turnover days were 20.2 days, an increase of 0.2 days compared to the same period last year [5]. Price Index - In October 2025, the CPI increased by 0.2% year-on-year, with food prices having a significant impact on the CPI decline. Different CPI sub-items showed different year-on-year and month-on-month changes [4][49]. - The PPI for industrial products decreased by 2.1% year-on-year in October 2025, with the decline narrowing. Different industries' PPI also showed different trends, with production materials prices generally declining more than living materials prices [56]. - The purchase price of industrial producers also showed different trends, with some categories such as fuel and power showing a decline, while others such as non-ferrous metal materials and wires showing an increase [60].

Group 1: Report Title and Date - The report is titled "Guoxin Futures Non - Ferrous (Nickel) Weekly Report" dated November 9, 2025 [3] Group 2: Table of Contents - The report includes three main parts: Market Review, Fundamental Analysis, and Future Outlook [4] Group 3: Market Review - This section focuses on the price trend of the nickel futures主力合约 [6] Group 4: Fundamental Analysis - **Upstream**: It shows the inventory of Chinese nickel ore at ports [10] - **Midstream**: Covers the prices of electrolytic nickel, nickel sulfate, the monthly import volume of ferronickel, and the price of 8 - 12% ferronickel from Fubao [13][15][18] - **Downstream**: Analyzes the price, futures positions, and inventory of stainless steel, as well as the production of power and energy - storage batteries and new - energy vehicles [20][28][30] Group 5: Future Outlook - In the US, on the 29th local time, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points, setting the federal funds rate target range at 3.75% - 4%. The probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut in December is 74.7%, and the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 25.3%. In China, the September manufacturing PMI was 49.8%, up 0.4 percentage points from the previous month [35] - The nickel futures in Shanghai showed a weak and volatile trend this week. The premium and discount of refined nickel brands were stable with average trading. Due to the rainy season in the Philippines and the impact of Typhoon "Seagull", supply was affected, while the Indonesian nickel ore market supply was relatively loose. The price of nickel sulfate was firm due to increased downstream ternary sales, but its medium - term strength remains to be seen. Stainless steel mills were cautious in raw material procurement, with weak terminal demand and slow inventory reduction. The expected operating range of the Shanghai nickel主力合约 is approximately 117,000 - 126,000 yuan/ton, and that of the stainless steel主力合约 is about 12,200 - 13,100 yuan/ton [35]

Core Insights - The global manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for October stands at 49.7%, remaining unchanged from the previous month and indicating a continuous trend within the 49% to 50% range for the past eight months [1][2] Regional Analysis - The manufacturing PMI for the Americas is at 48.8%, showing a slight decline from the previous month and indicating that the manufacturing sector in this region has been in contraction for eight consecutive months, with a relatively weak recovery [1] - Europe's manufacturing PMI has risen to 49.6%, reflecting an improvement in recovery compared to the previous month, yet still below the 50% threshold, suggesting that overall economic recovery in Europe requires further strengthening [1] - Africa's manufacturing PMI is at 50.8%, maintaining a position above 50% for four consecutive months, indicating a stable expansion in the manufacturing sector [1] - Asia's manufacturing PMI is at 50.7%, experiencing a slight decrease of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, but has remained above 50% for six months, indicating continued stable expansion and resilience in the region [1] Year-to-Date Performance - The average global manufacturing PMI for the first ten months of the year is 49.6%, which is an increase of 0.3 percentage points compared to the same period last year, yet still below the levels seen in 2019 [2] - The analysis suggests that while the global manufacturing sector remains stable within a certain range, the recovery pace is slightly better than last year but still below pre-pandemic levels, indicating a slow recovery trend in the global economy [2] - Ongoing geopolitical conflicts and trade tensions are identified as persistent uncertainties that inevitably disrupt the global economy, highlighting the need for deeper economic cooperation among countries as a primary goal for economic development [2]

Core Viewpoint - The manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for October decreased to 49.0%, marking a decline of 0.8 percentage points from the previous month and interrupting the upward trend observed since August [1] Manufacturing PMI Analysis - The decline in the manufacturing PMI is attributed to seasonal factors, with historical data showing that October typically experiences a decrease [2] - The production index fell by 2.2 percentage points to 49.7%, entering a contraction zone for the first time since April, largely due to fewer working days caused by the Mid-Autumn Festival [2] - Excluding seasonal and festival-related factors, the PMI remains weak, with both supply and demand sides of the manufacturing sector declining [2] - The new orders index decreased by 0.9 percentage points to 48.8%, reflecting a reduced demand due to the waning effects of recent policies aimed at stimulating the manufacturing market [2] External Influences - The impact of high tariffs from the U.S. on global trade and China's exports is evident, with the new export orders index dropping by 1.9 percentage points to 45.9% [3] - Some industries are implementing "anti-involution" measures, which may restrict capacity release and contribute to the significant decline in the production index [3] Market Development Expectations - The production and business activity expectation index for October was 52.8%, indicating that most manufacturing companies maintain an optimistic outlook [4] - The acceleration of 500 billion yuan in new policy financial tools is expected to boost infrastructure investment, providing support for macroeconomic stability [4] - The manufacturing sectors, particularly non-ferrous metal smelting and processing, as well as railway, shipbuilding, and aerospace equipment, have seen their expectation indices rise above 60%, indicating a high level of activity [4] Industry Confidence - The demand for non-ferrous metals is being driven by the ongoing economic transformation towards digitalization and green initiatives, particularly in the renewable energy sector [5] - The railway, shipbuilding, and aerospace sectors are experiencing significant upgrades, with China's shipbuilding industry capturing 64.2% of global new ship orders during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, an increase of 15.1 percentage points from the previous period [5]

Group 1 - The manufacturing PMI for October is reported at 49.0%, a decrease of 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, breaking the upward trend since August [1] - The production index fell by 2.2 percentage points to 49.7%, marking the first contraction since April, largely due to seasonal factors and the impact of the Mid-Autumn Festival [2] - The new orders index decreased by 0.9 percentage points to 48.8%, indicating weakened market demand, influenced by the diminishing effects of recent policies and ongoing adjustments in the real estate market [2][3] Group 2 - Despite the decline in the overall PMI, the production and business activity expectation index remains optimistic at 52.8%, indicating a positive outlook among most manufacturing enterprises [4] - The implementation of 500 billion yuan in new policy financial tools is expected to accelerate infrastructure investment, providing support for macroeconomic stability [4] - Industries such as non-ferrous metal smelting and processing, as well as railway, shipbuilding, and aerospace equipment, have seen their expectation indices rise above 60.0%, indicating robust activity [4] Group 3 - The non-ferrous metal industry is experiencing increased demand due to the ongoing economic transformation and the rise of digital and green initiatives, particularly in the renewable energy sector [5] - The railway, shipbuilding, and aerospace sectors are benefiting from significant upgrades during the 14th Five-Year Plan, with China's shipbuilding industry maintaining a global order share of 64.2%, an increase of 15.1 percentage points from the previous plan [6]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Aluminum prices are expected to mainly show a high - level oscillating trend, with limited arbitrage opportunities. It is recommended to mainly adopt a wait - and - see approach for option contracts [5][35]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs (1) Market Review - Last week, the price of the main contract AL2512 of Shanghai aluminum futures mainly showed a high - level oscillating trend, ranging from around 21,150 yuan/ton to a maximum of about 21,425 yuan/ton [9]. (2) Macroeconomic Aspect - In October, the manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) was 49.0%, a decrease of 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in the manufacturing's prosperity level. The production index was 49.7%, down 2.2 percentage points from the previous month, suggesting a slowdown in manufacturing production. The new orders index was 48.8%, down 0.9 percentage points from the previous month, showing a decline in manufacturing market demand. The raw material inventory index was 47.3%, down 1.2 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a continued reduction in the inventory of major manufacturing raw materials. The employment index was 48.3%, down 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a slight decline in the employment prosperity of manufacturing enterprises [4][12][13]. (3) Supply - and - Demand Situation - As of September 2025, domestic bauxite imports were 15,880,586.84 tons, a decrease of 2,408,741.3 tons from the previous month. From a seasonal perspective, domestic bauxite imports remained at a relatively high level compared to the past five years. Domestic alumina production was 7.999 million tons, an increase of 74,300 tons from the previous month, with a year - on - year increase of 8.7%. The domestic operating rate remained at a relatively high level compared to the past five years. Monthly electrolytic aluminum production was 3.809 million tons, an increase of 9,000 tons from the previous month, with a year - on - year growth of 1.8%. From a seasonal perspective, the current production remained at a relatively high level compared to the past five years [17]. (4) Inventory Situation - As of October 31, 2025, the electrolytic aluminum inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 113,574 tons, a decrease of 4,594 tons from the previous week. As of October 30, 2025, the LME aluminum inventory was 459,525 tons, a decrease of 3,225 tons from the previous trading day, and the proportion of cancelled warrants was 11.85%. As of October 30, 2025, the total social inventory of electrolytic aluminum was 561,000 tons, a decrease of 15,000 tons from the previous day [26].

Report Title - "Bottom Range, Weak Oscillation - Guoxin Futures Non - Ferrous (Nickel) Weekly Report" dated November 02, 2025 [2][3] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The U.S. Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points, setting the federal funds rate target range at 3.75% - 4%, and will end balance - sheet reduction on December 1. There are internal disagreements within the Fed, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut in December is 74.7%. In China, the September manufacturing PMI was 49.8%, a 0.4 - percentage - point increase from the previous month, indicating an improvement in manufacturing sentiment. [35] - The Shanghai nickel market showed an oscillating trend this week. Refined nickel premiums were stable with average trading. Nickel ore circulation in the Philippines was affected by weather, while the Indonesian nickel ore market had ample supply. Due to increased sales of downstream ternary materials, the nickel sulfate price was firm. Stainless steel mills were cautious in raw material procurement, with weak terminal demand and slow inventory reduction. The expected operating range for the Shanghai nickel main contract is approximately 118,000 - 128,000 yuan/ton, and for the stainless steel main contract, it is about 12,200 - 13,300 yuan/ton. [35] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - This part presents the price trend chart of the nickel futures main contract from December 31, 2020, to August 31, 2025, with data sourced from WIND and Guoxin Futures [6][7][8] 2. Fundamental Analysis 2.1 Upstream - China's Nickel Ore Port Inventory - A chart shows China's nickel ore port inventory, with data from WIND, Mysteel, and Guoxin Futures [10][11][12] 2.2 Mid - stream - Electrolytic Nickel Price - A chart displays the price of electrolytic nickel (1, Ni99.90, domestic and imported) [13][14] 2.3 Mid - stream - Nickel Sulfate Price - A chart shows the average price of Chinese nickel sulfate from December 31, 2020, to August 31, 2025, with data from WIND and Guoxin Futures [15][16][17] 2.4 Mid - stream - Monthly Import Volume of Ferronickel and Fubao Price of 8 - 12% Ferronickel - A chart presents China's monthly import volume of ferronickel and the Fubao price of 8 - 12% ferronickel from December 31, 2020, to August 31, 2025, with data from WIND and Guoxin Futures [18][19] 2.5 Downstream - Stainless Steel - **Price**: A chart shows the closing price of stainless steel futures (continuous) [20][21] - **Futures Position**: A chart displays the stainless steel futures position from December 31, 2020, to August 31, 2025, with data from WIND and Guoxin Futures [22][23][24] - **Inventory**: A chart shows the inventory of Wuxi stainless steel and Wuxi 300 - series stainless steel, with data from WIND and Guoxin Futures [25][26][27] 2.6 Downstream - Power and Energy Storage Battery Production - A chart presents the monthly production of Chinese power and energy storage batteries (ternary materials) and total power and energy storage batteries, with data from WIND and Guoxin Futures [28][29] 2.7 Downstream - New Energy Vehicle Production - A chart shows the monthly production of Chinese new energy vehicles [30][31] 3. Market Outlook - The U.S. Fed's interest - rate decision and China's manufacturing PMI data are analyzed. The Shanghai nickel market is expected to have the main contract operate in the range of 118,000 - 128,000 yuan/ton, and the stainless steel main contract in the range of 12,200 - 13,300 yuan/ton [35]

Group 1 - In October, the manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) decreased to 49.0%, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a slowdown in manufacturing activity [1] - The production index and new orders index for manufacturing were 49.7% and 48.8%, respectively, both showing declines of 2.2 and 0.9 percentage points from last month, reflecting weakened production and market demand [1] - Large enterprises maintained production and new orders indices above the critical point, with values of 50.9% and 50.1%, respectively, indicating sustained expansion for six consecutive months [1] Group 2 - Three key sectors, namely high-tech manufacturing, equipment manufacturing, and consumer goods, reported PMIs of 50.5%, 50.2%, and 50.1%, respectively, all remaining in the expansion zone and significantly above the overall manufacturing level [2] - The production and business activity expectation index for October was 52.8%, indicating that most manufacturing companies maintain an optimistic outlook for market development [2] Group 3 - The non-manufacturing business activity index rose to 50.1%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, indicating expansion in the non-manufacturing sector [3] - The service sector's business activity index continued to expand at 50.2%, reflecting a slight recovery in service sector activity levels [3] - The business activity expectation index for the service sector was 56.1%, indicating strong confidence among service enterprises regarding industry development [3]

Core Viewpoint - The manufacturing PMI for October decreased to 49.0%, marking a decline of 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, interrupting the upward trend since August [1] Manufacturing PMI Analysis - The manufacturing PMI index typically experiences seasonal fluctuations in October, with historical data showing a pattern of "7 declines, 2 increases, and 1 flat" over the past decade [2] - The production index fell significantly by 2.2 percentage points to 49.7%, entering a contraction zone for the first time since April, largely due to the reduced number of working days caused by the Mid-Autumn Festival [2] - New orders index decreased by 0.9 percentage points to 48.8%, reflecting weakened market demand, influenced by the diminishing effects of recent policies and ongoing adjustments in the real estate market [2] - The new export orders index dropped by 1.9 percentage points to 45.9%, indicating the impact of high tariffs from the U.S. on global trade and exports [2] Industry-Specific Insights - High-energy-consuming industries reported a PMI of 47.3%, a decline of 0.2 percentage points, indicating a decrease in economic activity [3] - The production and business activity expectation index for the manufacturing sector remained optimistic at 52.8%, suggesting a majority of firms maintain a positive outlook [4] - The implementation of 500 billion yuan in new policy financial tools has accelerated infrastructure investment, providing support for macroeconomic stability [4] Sector Confidence and Future Implications - The demand for non-ferrous metals is being driven by the ongoing economic transformation towards digitalization and green initiatives, particularly in the renewable energy sector [5][6] - The shipbuilding industry has seen a significant increase in global new ship orders, with a 15.1 percentage point rise compared to the previous five-year plan, indicating strong growth potential [7] - The growth in the non-ferrous metals and aerospace sectors is expected to stimulate upstream industries such as mineral resource development and high-end materials manufacturing [8]