Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The Fed's rate - cut process may be postponed, and copper prices are likely to move in a volatile trend [1][34][36] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - In March, the price of the main contract of Shanghai copper futures decreased significantly, with the price range between 91,500 yuan/ton and 104,870 yuan/ton [7] 2. Macroeconomic Environment 2.1 Fed Rate - cut Process - Fed Chairman Powell said the Fed tends to keep interest rates unchanged and temporarily "ignores" the impact of energy shocks. His speech eased market concerns about Fed rate hikes, and traders began to bet on a possible rate cut this year. The probability of a 25 - basis - point rate hike in April is 2.6%, and the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 97.4%. By June, the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut is 5%, the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 92.5%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate hike is 2.5% [10][34] 2.2 China's PMI Data - In March, China's manufacturing PMI was 50.4%, up 1.4 percentage points from the previous month, indicating an improvement in manufacturing sentiment. Among the five sub - indices, the production index and new order index were above the critical point, while the raw material inventory index, employment index, and supplier delivery time index were below the critical point [13][15] 3. Supply and Demand 3.1 China's Copper Smelter Processing Fees - As of March 30, 2026, China's copper smelter refining fee was - 7 cents/pound, and the rough smelting fee was - 69.2 dollars/kiloton. The copper processing fee has been at a low level. As of January 2026, the ICSG's global copper concentrate production was 1,919 thousand tons, the capacity was 2,498 thousand tons, and the utilization rate was 76.8% [19] 3.2 Scrap - to - Refined Copper Price Spread - As of March 31, 2026, the price of refined copper in Shanghai Wumaomao was 95,580 yuan/ton, and the price of scrap copper in Foshan, Guangdong was 85,600 yuan/ton, with a spread of 1,420 yuan/ton. From a seasonal perspective, the current spread is at an average level compared to the past five years [24] 4. Inventory - As of March 27, 2026, the Shanghai Futures Exchange's cathode copper inventory was 359,135 tons, a decrease of 51,986 tons from the previous week. The LME copper inventory was 360,250 tons, an increase of 425 tons from the previous trading day, with a cancelled warrant ratio of 18.81%. As of March 30, 2026, the COMEX copper inventory was 588,121 tons, a decrease of 798 tons from the previous trading day. The Shanghai bonded area inventory was 61,900 tons, a decrease of 1,500 tons from the previous week [27] 5. Outlook 5.1 Price Trend Factor Analysis - The impact factors of copper price include US policy (★★★, Fed rate - cut may be postponed), China's policy (★★, some economic data in China are rising), supply (★★★, refined copper processing fees are at a very low level; ★★, scrap - to - refined copper price spread returns to normal), and inventory (★★, COMEX copper continues to accumulate significantly; ★★, Shanghai copper inventory decreases) [33] 5.2 Forecast - Overall, copper prices are likely to show a high - level volatile market, with limited arbitrage opportunities. It is recommended to wait and see for options contracts [34][35][36]

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The terminal demand for hot-rolled coils is relatively resilient, but the international situation is volatile with many uncertainties. With signs of easing in the US-Iran situation, commodity prices have generally declined. It is recommended to conduct short-term trading and pay attention to risk control [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the HC main contract was 3,294 yuan/ton, a decrease of 14 yuan; the trading volume of the HC main contract was 773,076 lots, a decrease of 73,740 lots; the net position of the top 20 in the HC contract was -29,127 lots, an increase of 18,558 lots; the HC5-10 contract spread was -16 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1 yuan; the HC Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouse receipt report was 549,618 tons, unchanged; the HC2605 - RB2605 contract spread was 173 yuan/ton, an increase of 4 yuan [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of 4.75 hot-rolled coils in Hangzhou was 3,310 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Guangzhou, it was 3,310 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Wuhan, it was 3,350 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Tianjin, it was 3,220 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan. The basis of the HC main contract was 16 yuan/ton, an increase of 14 yuan; the price difference between hot-rolled coils and rebar in Hangzhou was 50 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of 61.5% PB fines at Qingdao Port was 785 yuan/wet ton, a decrease of 7 yuan; the market price of quasi-primary metallurgical coke in Hebei was 1,490 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of 6 - 8mm scrap steel in Tangshan (excluding tax) was 2,170 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Q235 billets in Hebei was 2,980 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan. The inventory of iron ore at 45 ports was 169.9684 million tons, a decrease of 1.0583 million tons; the inventory of coke at sample coking plants was 497,600 tons, a decrease of 25,900 tons; the inventory of coke at sample steel mills was 6.9173 million tons, an increase of 39,500 tons; the inventory of billets in Hebei was 2.3994 million tons, a decrease of 95,900 tons [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 81.05%, an increase of 1.25 percentage points; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills was 86.65%, an increase of 1.10 percentage points; the weekly output of hot-rolled coils at sample steel mills was 3.0561 million tons, an increase of 54,000 tons; the capacity utilization rate of hot-rolled coils at sample steel mills was 78.07%, an increase of 1.38 percentage points; the inventory of hot-rolled coils at sample steel mills was 838,500 tons, a decrease of 11,100 tons; the social inventory of hot-rolled coils in 33 cities was 3.6942 million tons, a decrease of 69,100 tons; the monthly output of crude steel in China was 68.18 million tons, a decrease of 1.69 million tons; the net export volume of steel was 7.47 million tons, an increase of 180,000 tons [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly output of automobiles was 1.6724 million vehicles, a decrease of 777,400 vehicles; the monthly sales of automobiles were 1.8052 million vehicles, a decrease of 541,300 vehicles; the monthly output of air conditioners was 21.6289 million units, an increase of 6.6029 million units; the monthly output of household refrigerators was 10.0115 million units, an increase of 569,500 units; the monthly output of household washing machines was 11.975 million units, a decrease of 38,000 units [2] 3.6 Industry News - Three Chinese ships passed through the Strait of Hormuz recently, and China called for a ceasefire and the restoration of peace and stability in the Gulf region. In March, the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was 50.4%, up 1.4 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a recovery in the manufacturing industry's prosperity [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On Tuesday, the RB2605 contract decreased with reduced positions. The macro - situation shows that according to US officials, President Trump told his assistants that he is willing to end the military action against Iran even if the Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed. In terms of supply - demand, the weekly output of rebar decreased, and the capacity utilization rate dropped to 43.37%. Downstream demand continued to increase, and inventory continued to decline. Overall, the fundamentals of rebar changed little, the situation between the US and Iran showed signs of easing, and the decline in oil prices led to a downward trend in the black - series commodities. Technically, the 1 - hour MACD indicator of the RB2605 contract shows that DIFF and DEA are adjusting downward, and the red bar turns green. It is recommended for short - term trading and attention should be paid to risk control [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the RB main contract was 3,121.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 18 yuan; the position volume was 901,052 lots, a decrease of 75,389 lots; the net position of the top 20 in the RB contract was - 58,835 lots, a decrease of 10,402 lots; the spread between the RB5 - 10 contracts was - 25 yuan/ton, an increase of 4 yuan; the daily warehouse receipt of the RB on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 99,613 tons, with no change; the spread between the HC2605 - RB2605 contracts was 173 yuan/ton, an increase of 4 yuan [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of HRB400E 20MM in Hangzhou (theoretical weight) was 3,260.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan; the price of HRB400E 20MM in Hangzhou (actual weight) was 3,344 yuan/ton, a decrease of 21 yuan; the price of HRB400E 20MM in Guangzhou (theoretical weight) was 3,440.00 yuan/ton, with no change; the price of HRB400E 20MM in Tianjin (theoretical weight) was 3,210.00 yuan/ton, with no change; the basis of the RB main contract was 139.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2 yuan; the spot price difference between hot - rolled coil and rebar in Hangzhou was 50.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of 60.8% PB powder ore at Qingdao Port was 785.00 yuan/wet ton, a decrease of 7 yuan; the price of first - grade metallurgical coke at Tianjin Port (FOB) was 1,490.00 yuan/ton, with no change; the price of 6 - 8mm scrap steel in Tangshan (tax - excluded) was 2,170.00 yuan/ton, with no change; the price of Q235 billet in Hebei was 2,980.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan; the inventory of iron ore at 45 ports (weekly) was 16,996.84 million tons, a decrease of 105.83 million tons; the inventory of coke at sample coking plants (weekly) was 49.76 million tons, a decrease of 2.59 million tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The inventory of coke at sample steel mills (weekly) was 691.73 million tons, an increase of 3.95 million tons; the inventory of billets in Tangshan (weekly) was 239.94 million tons, a decrease of 9.59 million tons; the blast - furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills (weekly) was 81.05%, an increase of 1.25 percentage points; the blast - furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills (weekly) was 86.65%, an increase of 1.10 percentage points; the output of rebar at sample steel mills (weekly) was 197.87 million tons, a decrease of 5.46 million tons; the capacity utilization rate of rebar at sample steel mills (weekly) was 43.37%, a decrease of 1.20 percentage points; the inventory of rebar at sample steel mills (weekly) was 219.16 million tons, a decrease of 17.04 million tons; the social inventory of rebar in 35 cities (weekly) was 642.75 million tons, a decrease of 10.46 million tons; the operating rate of independent electric - arc furnace steel mills (weekly) was 69.79%, an increase of 3.12 percentage points; the monthly output of domestic crude steel was 6,818 million tons, a decrease of 169 million tons; the monthly output of Chinese steel bars was 1,375 million tons, an increase of 19 million tons; the net export volume of steel (monthly) was 747.00 million tons, an increase of 18.00 million tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The national real - estate climate index (monthly) was 91.45, a decrease of 0.44; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment completion (monthly) was - 3.80%, a decrease of 5.60 percentage points; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of real - estate development investment completion (monthly) was - 17.20%, a decrease of 6.10 percentage points; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of infrastructure construction investment (monthly) was - 2.20%, a decrease of 2.20 percentage points; the cumulative value of housing construction area (monthly) was 659,890 million square meters, a decrease of 124,518 million square meters; the cumulative value of new housing construction area (monthly) was 58,770 million square meters, a decrease of 53,686 million square meters; the unsold area of commercial housing (monthly) was 40,236.00 million square meters, an increase of 3,516.00 million square meters [2]. 3.6 Industry News - In March, the manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) was 50.4%, an increase of 1.4 percentage points from the previous month, above the critical point, indicating a recovery in the manufacturing industry's prosperity level. On March 30, US President Trump posted on a social platform that if an agreement with Iran cannot be reached in the short term and the Strait of Hormuz is not immediately reopened, he will blow up and completely raze all of Iran's power plants, oil wells, and Kharg Island, and possibly all desalination plants [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - Copper prices are likely to fluctuate at a high level. Arbitrage opportunities are limited, and it is recommended to take a wait - and - see approach for option contracts [3][32] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - Last week, the price of the main contract CU2604 of Shanghai copper futures showed a fluctuating trend, ranging from around 100,030 yuan/ton to a maximum of about 104,540 yuan/ton [7] 2. Macroeconomic Aspect - In February, the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was 49.0%, a decrease of 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in the manufacturing prosperity level. Among the five sub - indices of the manufacturing PMI, the production index, new order index, raw material inventory index, employment index, and supplier delivery time index were all below the critical point [10][11] 3. Supply and Demand Situation - As of March 5, 2026, the Chinese copper smelter's rough smelting fee was - 56.1 US dollars per thousand tons, and the refining fee was - 5.7 cents per pound. As of March 6, 2026, the refined copper price in Shanghai Wumaomao was 101,120 yuan/ton, the scrap copper price in Foshan, Guangdong was 89,250 yuan/ton, and the refined - scrap price difference was 2,945 yuan/ton, which was at a relatively high level compared to the past five years [15][17] 4. Inventory Situation - As of March 6, 2026, the cathode copper inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 425,145 tons, an increase of 33,616 tons from the previous week. As of March 4, 2026, the LME copper inventory was 261,525 tons, an increase of 3,850 tons from the previous trading day, and the proportion of cancelled warrants was 5.61%. As of March 5, 2026, the inventory in Shanghai Free Trade Zone was 85,400 tons, the inventory in Guangdong was 97,000 tons, and the inventory in Wuxi was 119,300 tons. The inventory in Shanghai Free Trade Zone decreased by 5,700 tons from the previous week [21] 5. Macroeconomic and Fundamental Analysis - In February, the manufacturing PMI decreased, the new order index declined, the copper smelter's processing fee continued to drop rapidly and was at an extremely low level, the refined - scrap copper price difference decreased rapidly but remained at a high level, the investment in power grid infrastructure changed from increase to decrease, the copper product output decreased slightly year - on - year, the Shanghai copper inventory increased significantly and was at a relatively high level in recent years, and the LME copper inventory increased rapidly and was at the highest level in recent years [31] 6. Future Outlook - Copper prices are likely to fluctuate at a high level. Arbitrage opportunities are limited, and it is recommended to take a wait - and - see approach for option contracts [3][32]

Macroeconomic Dynamics - The Ministry of Foreign Affairs emphasizes the importance of maintaining safety and stability in the Strait of Hormuz and surrounding waters, which is crucial for international trade and energy supply [2] - In February, the manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) dropped to 49.0%, a decrease of 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a slowdown in manufacturing activity [3] - The non-manufacturing business activity index rose to 49.5%, up by 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, suggesting an improvement in the non-manufacturing sector [3] Market Adjustments - The Shanghai Futures Exchange announced adjustments to the trading limits and margin requirements for fuel oil futures contracts, effective from March 4, 2026 [4][5] - The Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange also adjusted the margin standards and trading limits for methanol futures contracts, effective from March 4, 2026 [6] Real Estate Market - Chongqing's real estate market reported a "good start" with a 7.27% year-on-year increase in housing transaction volume and a 0.3% increase in transaction prices, attributed to new policies aimed at stabilizing the market [7] Financial Institutions - FTSE Russell announced the inclusion of China Shipbuilding, Tianfu Communication, and Wanhua Chemical in the FTSE China A50 Index, effective March 20, 2026 [8] - The Shenzhen Stock Exchange temporarily suspended trading of the Huaan S&P Global Oil Index Securities Investment Fund due to price premium issues [9] - The Guotou UBS Silver Futures Securities Investment Fund will be temporarily suspended from trading on March 5, 2026, due to significant price premiums [10] Stock Market Performance - The A-share market saw a collective decline, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling by 0.98% to below 4100 points, and a total market turnover of approximately 23,657.54 billion yuan, down by about 7,637.56 billion yuan from the previous trading day [11] - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index dropped by 2.01%, with significant declines in oil and gas, shipping, and technology sectors [12] Company Dynamics - China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) became the market capitalization leader in A-shares, closing at 13.24 yuan per share, with a market cap exceeding 21,438.48 billion yuan, surpassing Agricultural Bank of China [13] - COSCO Shipping announced the suspension of new bookings for certain routes due to escalating conflicts in the Middle East, affecting shipping operations [14] - Craig Barratt has been elected as the new chairman of Intel, effective after the annual shareholder meeting on May 13, 2026 [15][16]

Market Overview - The central bank conducted a 315 billion yuan 7-day reverse repurchase operation at a fixed rate of 1.40%, with a total bid and awarded amount of 315 billion yuan. Additionally, a 3000 billion yuan 14-day reverse repurchase operation was carried out, indicating a total of 6000 billion yuan in reverse repos over two days to support liquidity during the Spring Festival [1][3] - The interbank market showed a more relaxed liquidity environment, with the weighted average rate of DR001 dropping over 4 basis points to around 1.27%. Overnight quotes in the anonymous click (X-repo) system fell to 1.25%, indicating ample supply [3] - The latest overnight financing rate in the U.S. was reported at 3.65% [3] Interbank Certificates of Deposit - The latest transaction for one-year interbank certificates of deposit in the secondary market was around 1.590% [7] Bond Market - The yields on major interbank bonds mostly declined, reflecting a downward trend in bond prices [9] - The closing prices for government bond futures showed slight increases, with the 30-year main contract rising by 0.42%, the 10-year by 0.08%, the 5-year by 0.03%, and the 2-year by 0.02% [14] Global Macro - The European Central Bank maintained its benchmark interest rate, marking the fifth consecutive pause since June of the previous year. However, no clear signals regarding future policy direction were provided, leading to expectations of stable monetary policy in the near term [14]

Group 1: Open Market Operations - The central bank conducted a 315 billion yuan 7-day reverse repurchase operation at a fixed rate of 1.40%, with a total bid and winning amount of 315 billion yuan [1] - Additionally, a 3000 billion yuan 14-day reverse repurchase operation was carried out, with a total of 6000 billion yuan in 14-day reverse repos conducted over two days to support the liquidity during the Spring Festival [1] Group 2: Funding Conditions - The interbank market is experiencing a more relaxed funding environment, with the weighted average rate of DR001 dropping over 4 basis points to around 1.27% [3] - Overnight quotes in the anonymous click (X-repo) system fell to 1.25%, indicating ample supply, while non-bank institutions borrowed overnight against credit bonds at rates below 1.5% [3] - The latest overnight financing rate in the U.S. stands at 3.65% [3] Group 3: Interbank Certificates of Deposit - The latest transaction for one-year interbank certificates of deposit in the secondary market is around 1.590% [7] Group 4: Bond Market Overview - The yields on major interbank rate bonds have mostly decreased, with specific yields for various maturities showing declines, such as the 1-year government bond yield at 1.3125% and the 10-year yield at 1.8010% [10] - The data indicates a general downward trend in yields across different types of bonds, including government bonds and policy bank bonds [10] Group 5: Recent Economic Indicators - The Asian Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for January 2026 is reported at 51%, a slight decrease of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, indicating continued expansion in the manufacturing sector [14] - The global manufacturing PMI increased by 1.5 percentage points to 51% in January [14] Group 6: Global Monetary Policy - The European Central Bank has maintained its benchmark interest rate, marking the fifth consecutive pause in rate cuts since June of the previous year, with officials closely monitoring the impact of euro appreciation on export competitiveness and inflation [16]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - 1 - month official manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, back below the boom - bust line, with a decline in manufacturing market demand; construction and service business activity indices were weak; the Ministry of Finance will maintain necessary levels of fiscal deficit, debt, and expenditure; the central bank governor said there is room for RRR and interest rate cuts this year; the Wande All - A Index was slightly weak this week, and capital interest rates fell compared to last week; treasury bond futures rose overall, and may fluctuate slightly upward in the short term [39] - Trading - type investors are advised to conduct band operations [40] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Treasury Bond Futures Weekly Market Review - This week, most treasury bond futures main contracts showed a trend of hitting bottom and then rebounding. The 30 - year variety was strong. The 30 - year treasury bond rose 0.63% for the whole week, the 10 - year rose 0.12%, the 5 - year rose 0.06%, and the 2 - year rose 0.06% [5] - As of February 6, compared with January 30, the treasury bond spot yield curve shifted downward overall, with the ultra - long end shifting down slightly more. The 2 - year yield dropped 2 BP to 1.36%, the 5 - year dropped 2 BP to 1.56%, the 10 - year remained flat at 1.81%, and the 30 - year dropped 4 BP to 2.25% [7] 3.2 January Manufacturing PMI Data - January manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, back in the contraction range, with large enterprises continuing to expand and medium - and small - sized enterprises' prosperity declining [10] - The production index was 50.6% and the new order index was 49.2%, indicating continued expansion in production but a decline in market demand. The procurement volume index was 48.7%, falling below the boom - bust line [13] - The new export order index was 47.8% and the import index was 47.3%. The new export order index declined compared to December [16] - The main raw material purchase price index and the ex - factory price index were 56.1% and 50.6% respectively, both expanding compared to the previous month. The average value of the South China Industrial Products Index rose 4.4% month - on - month and fell 4.75% year - on - year [18] - The raw material inventory index was 47.4% and the finished product inventory index was 48.6%. Inventory remained stable, and the profits of large - scale manufacturing enterprises increased in 2025 [21] - The manufacturing employment index was 48.1%, with little change in the employment prosperity level. The production and operation activity expectation index was 52.6%, indicating a decline in future prosperity expectations [24] 3.3 January Non - manufacturing Business Activity Index Data - The non - manufacturing business activity index was 49.4%. The construction business activity index was 48.8%, and the service business activity index was 49.5%, falling below the boom - bust line for the third consecutive month [27] - The construction new order index was 40.1%, the employment index was 41.1%, and the business activity expectation index was 49.8%, all showing a decline [30] - The service new order index was 47.1%, the employment index was 47.0%, and the business activity expectation index was 57.1%, slightly rising. The input price index was 49.7% and the sales price index was 48.9%. Financial and insurance industries were active, while the real estate industry was weak [33] 3.4 Capital Interest Rate and Market Operation - This week, capital interest rates fell compared to last week. DR001 dropped to 1.275%, DR007 dropped to 1.46%, and the one - year AAA inter - bank certificate of deposit issuance rate dropped to 1.59%. On February 4, the central bank conducted 800 billion yuan of 3 - month outright reverse repurchase operations, with 700 billion yuan of 3 - month outright reverse repurchase maturing on the same day [36]

Group 1 - The Asian manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for January 2026 is reported at 51%, a slight decrease of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, marking nine consecutive months above 50% [1] - China's manufacturing PMI has dropped below 50%, while India's PMI remains above 55%. ASEAN countries such as Thailand, Indonesia, Vietnam, and the Philippines have PMIs above 52%, and Malaysia, Singapore, and Myanmar are at or above 50% [1] - The overall index indicates that Asian manufacturing continues to remain in the expansion zone, with a stable recovery expected to play a significant role in global economic growth in 2026 [1] Group 2 - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) predicts that emerging markets and developing economies will continue to be the main engines of global economic growth, with growth rates expected to remain above 4.0% from 2026 to 2027 [1] - The Asian Development Bank forecasts a 4.6% economic growth rate for developing economies in the Asia-Pacific region in 2026 [1] - Asian countries are enhancing their economic recovery through strengthening endogenous growth drivers, deepening regional cooperation, and increasing supply chain resilience [1] Group 3 - The global manufacturing PMI for January is reported at 51%, an increase of 1.5 percentage points from the previous month [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No clear industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - On Thursday, the stock market (Wande A-Share Index) generally declined, with the Wande A-Share Index closing down 1.11% compared to the previous trading day, and the trading volume shrank from 2.50 trillion yuan to 2.19 trillion yuan. Meanwhile, the main contracts of treasury bond futures generally rose, with the 30 - year treasury bond futures main contract TL2603 rising 0.38%, the 10 - year T2603 rising 0.08%, the 5 - year TF2603 rising 0.07%, and the 2 - year TS2603 rising 0.04%. Treasury bond futures may fluctuate in the short - term, and the performance of the stock index should be continuously monitored. Traders are advised to conduct band operations [1][2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Performance - **Treasury Bond Futures**: On Thursday, the main contract of treasury bond futures opened roughly flat, fluctuated horizontally in the morning, and rose in the afternoon. The 30 - year variety showed a strong trend. As of the close, the 30 - year treasury bond futures main contract TL2603 rose 0.38%, the 10 - year T2603 rose 0.08%, the 5 - year TF2603 rose 0.07%, and the 2 - year TS2603 rose 0.04% [1]. - **Stock Market**: On Thursday, the Wande A - Share Index opened lower, fluctuated horizontally throughout the day, closed down 1.11% compared to the previous trading day, forming a doji candlestick, and the trading volume shrank from 2.50 trillion yuan to 2.19 trillion yuan [2]. 3.2 Important Information - **Open Market Operations**: On Thursday, the central bank conducted 118.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations and 300 billion yuan of 14 - day reverse repurchase operations. With 354 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing on the same day, the net investment was 64.5 billion yuan [1]. - **Funding Market**: On Thursday, the overnight interest rate in the inter - bank funding market remained flat compared to the previous trading day. The weighted average of DR001 throughout the day was 1.32% (the same as the previous trading day), and the weighted average of DR007 throughout the day was 1.48% (compared to 1.49% in the previous trading day) [1]. - **Cash Bond Market**: On Thursday, the closing yields of inter - bank treasury bonds declined compared to the previous trading day. The yield to maturity of 2 - year treasury bonds dropped 1.35 basis points to 1.36%, the 5 - year dropped 0.62 basis points to 1.57%, the 10 - year dropped 0.24 basis points to 1.82%, and the 30 - year dropped 1.20 basis points to 2.27% [1]. - **US Unemployment Data**: The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week was 231,000, compared with an estimate of 212,000 and a previous value of 209,000. The number of continued claims for unemployment benefits in the week of January 24 was 1.844 million, with an estimate of 1.85 million [1]. - **European Central Bank Interest Rates**: On February 5, the European Central Bank kept the deposit facility rate at 2.00%, the main refinancing rate at 2.15%, and the marginal lending rate at 2.40%, in line with market expectations [1]. 3.3 Market Logic - **Economic Data**: The official manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) in January was 49.3%, falling back below the boom - bust line (previous value: 50.1%). The new orders index in January was 49.2% (previous value: 50.8%), indicating a decline in manufacturing market demand. The business activity index of the construction industry in January was 48.8% (previous value: 52.8%), and the business activity index of the service industry in January was 49.5%, remaining below the boom - bust line for the third consecutive month (previous value: 49.7%) [1]. - **Policy Signals**: On January 20, the Ministry of Finance stated that in 2026, the fiscal deficit, total debt, and total expenditure would be maintained at a necessary level to ensure that the overall expenditure intensity "only increases and does not decrease" and the guarantee of key areas "only strengthens and does not weaken". Recently, the governor of the central bank said that there is still room for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts this year to promote the low - level operation of the comprehensive social financing cost, gradually play the role of treasury bond trading in liquidity management, and keep the liquidity of the banking system abundant [1]. 3.4 Trading Strategy - Traders are advised to conduct band operations [2].