Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - Since late July, the spot and futures prices of rebar have weakened. The main futures price has fallen by 4.43% from its high, and the spot price in mainstream areas has dropped by 30 - 90 yuan/ton. The correction of optimistic sentiment and the accumulation of industrial contradictions in the steel market have led to the decline of steel prices. Currently, the demand for rebar remains weak, the supply benefits are limited, and the fundamental contradictions are accumulating. It is expected that steel prices will fluctuate under pressure, and attention should be paid to changes in production restriction policies [2][7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Optimistic Sentiment Correction - Since July, the dominant logic in the ferrous metal market has been the policy - driven positive expectations from "anti - involution." However, with limited policy implementation, the previous optimistic sentiment has been corrected. The Politburo meeting on July 30 changed the wording on capacity governance, and did not directly mention real - estate policies, weakening market expectations. The manufacturing PMI in July was 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from June, affected by the traditional off - season and natural disasters [3] - From the perspective of key industries, the PMIs of the equipment manufacturing and high - tech manufacturing industries were above the critical point, while the PMI of the consumer goods industry decreased by 0.9 percentage points from June, and that of the high - energy - consuming industry increased by 0.2 percentage points. The production and operation activity expectation index in July was 52.6%, up 0.6 percentage points from June, indicating increased confidence among manufacturing enterprises [4] Supply Benefits Limited - As of the week ending August 1, the total inventory of rebar was 546290 tons, an increase of 7650 tons from the previous week, but still at a low level in recent years, with a year - on - year decrease of 196080 tons (26.41%). The rebar market shows a situation of weak supply and demand, and the fundamental contradictions are easy to accumulate. The weekly output of rebar is relatively low at 211060 tons, a decrease of 22830 tons from the previous high, mainly due to long - process steel mills' product transformation [5] - The positive effect of low supply is limited. Some steel mills that previously produced billets have returned to rebar production, and the profitability of short - process steel mills has improved significantly. The proportion of profitable steel mills among 90 independent electric arc furnaces is 52.89%, and the loss ratio is only 12.4%. Their operating rate has reached a high for the year, which will increase rebar supply. However, steel mills around Beijing may suspend production to ensure the smooth progress of the September 3 parade, which may boost the steel market sentiment [5][6] Demand Remains Weak - Due to weak demand, industrial contradictions in rebar continue to accumulate. As of the week ending August 1, the weekly apparent demand for rebar was 203410 tons, a new low, down 5.67% year - on - year. Cement out - bound volume and concrete shipment volume, which directly reflect terminal demand, are also weak, down 10.43% and 4.91% year - on - year respectively [7] - The real - estate sales are sluggish, and there is no substantial improvement in the downstream industries of rebar. The weak demand pattern remains unchanged. The increase in steel prices in July stimulated the release of investment demand, and the increase in the number of rebar warehouse receipts on the SHFE may further increase the pressure on the demand side [7]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Fluctuating repeatedly [4][7] - Rebar: Market shows a wait - and - see attitude, with wide - range fluctuations [4][9] - Hot - rolled coil: Market shows a wait - and - see attitude, with wide - range fluctuations [4][9] - Ferrosilicon: Stronger oscillation due to sector sentiment resonance [2][13] - Silicomanganese: Stronger oscillation due to sector sentiment resonance [2][13] - Coke: Stronger oscillation [2][16] - Coking coal: Stronger oscillation [2][16] - Logs: Fluctuating repeatedly [2][20] Core Views - The report provides the latest price, trading volume, position, and other fundamental data for various black - series commodities, along with their price changes and trend intensities [6][9][13] - It also includes macro and industry news such as manufacturing PMI data, steel production data, and price policy announcements [6][10][11] Summary by Commodity Iron Ore - **Price Changes**: The futures price closed at 794.5 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan or 0.50% from the previous day; the position decreased by 26,208 lots to 358,293 lots. Among the imported ores, PB (61.5%) dropped 4 yuan to 776 yuan/ton, and the super - special (56.5%) dropped 2 yuan to 650 yuan/ton. The domestic ores remained stable [6] - **Macro News**: In July, the manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in manufacturing prosperity [6] - **Trend Intensity**: - 1, showing a relatively bearish trend [6] Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Price Changes**: The RB2510 futures of rebar closed at 3,234 yuan/ton, up 24 yuan or 0.75%; the HC2510 futures of hot - rolled coil closed at 3,451 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan or 0.41%. The spot prices of rebar in major cities increased by 10 - 40 yuan/ton, while most of the spot prices of hot - rolled coil remained unchanged [9] - **Industry News**: In late July, the average daily output of key steel enterprises' crude steel decreased by 7.4%, pig iron decreased by 4.5%, and steel products increased by 0.5%. According to the weekly data of Steel Union on July 31, the output of rebar decreased by 0.9 tons, hot - rolled coil increased by 5.3 tons, and the total inventory of the five major varieties increased by 15.39 tons [10][11] - **Trend Intensity**: 0, showing a neutral trend [11] Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Price Changes**: The silicon iron 2509 futures closed at 5,908 yuan/ton, up 192 yuan; the silicon manganese 2509 futures closed at 6,096 yuan/ton, up 78 yuan. The spot price of silicon iron in Inner Mongolia increased by 100 yuan to 5,500 yuan/ton, and the spot price of silicon manganese increased by 50 yuan to 5,850 yuan/ton [13] - **Industry News**: On August 6, the price of silicon iron 72 in some regions changed, and UMK announced a 0.15 - dollar increase in the manganese ore quotation for September [14] - **Trend Intensity**: 1, showing a relatively bullish trend [15] Coke and Coking Coal - **Price Changes**: The JM2509 futures of coking coal closed at 1,074 yuan/ton, up 39 yuan or 3.8%; the J2509 futures of coke closed at 1,644.5 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan or 0.6%. The spot price of Shanxi's quasi - first - grade coke to the factory increased by 105 yuan to 1,395 yuan/ton [17] - **Macro News**: In July, the manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in manufacturing prosperity [18] - **Trend Intensity**: 0, showing a neutral trend [19] Logs - **Price Changes**: The 2509 contract of logs closed at 832.5 yuan, up 0.4% from the previous day; the trading volume decreased by 52.3%. The spot prices of most log varieties remained stable [21] - **Macro News**: In July, the manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in manufacturing prosperity [23] - **Trend Intensity**: 0, showing a neutral trend [23]

Report Overview - The report is a Guotai Junan Futures' commodity research morning report for the black series dated August 5, 2025, covering various commodities including iron ore, rebar, hot-rolled coil, ferrosilicon, silicomanganese, coke, coking coal, and logs [1][2] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - Iron ore is expected to fluctuate repeatedly, while rebar, hot-rolled coil, ferrosilicon, and silicomanganese are likely to experience wide-range oscillations as market sentiment cools. Coke and coking coal are also forecasted to have wide-range fluctuations, and logs are expected to fluctuate repeatedly [2] Summary by Commodity Iron Ore - Yesterday's futures closing price was 790.5 yuan/ton, up 7.5 yuan or 0.96%. Some imported ore prices remained stable, while some domestic ore prices decreased. The trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [4] Rebar and Hot-Rolled Coil - Rebar's RB2510 contract closed at 3,204 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan or 0.28%, and hot-rolled coil's HC2510 contract closed at 3,417 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan or 0.26%. Spot prices showed mixed changes. The trend strength for both is 0 [8] Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - Ferrosilicon 2509 closed at 5,674 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan, and silicomanganese 2509 closed at 5,972 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan. Spot prices of ferrosilicon in some regions decreased. The trend strength for both is 0 [12] Coke and Coking Coal - Coking coal's JM2509 contract closed at 1,005.5 yuan/ton, up 20.5 yuan or 2.1%, and coke's J2509 contract closed at 1,615 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan or 1.9%. Some spot prices of coking coal decreased. The trend strength for both is 0 [16] Logs - The 2509 contract of logs closed at 842 yuan, with a daily increase of 2.5% and a weekly increase of 1.4%. Spot prices of most log varieties remained stable. The trend strength is 0 [20] Macro and Industry News - In July, the manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in manufacturing prosperity. In mid-July 2025, key steel enterprises' average daily output of crude steel, pig iron, and steel increased compared to the previous period [4][9][17]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific investment ratings for the industry are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - Iron ore: Expected to fluctuate repeatedly [2] - Rebar: Market sentiment is cooling, and it will experience wide - range fluctuations [2] - Hot - rolled coil: Market sentiment is cooling, and it will experience wide - range fluctuations [2] - Ferrosilicon: Market sentiment is cooling, and it will experience wide - range fluctuations [2] - Silicomanganese: Market sentiment is cooling, and it will experience wide - range fluctuations [2] - Coke: Market sentiment is reflected, and it will experience wide - range fluctuations [2] - Coking coal: Market sentiment is reflected, and it will experience wide - range fluctuations [2] - Thermal coal: Daily consumption is recovering, and it will stabilize with fluctuations [2] - Logs: Expected to fluctuate repeatedly [2] 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Iron Ore - **Fundamentals**: The previous day's futures closing price was 783.0 yuan/ton, up 4.0 yuan/ton or 0.51%. The previous day's position was 410,009 lots, a decrease of 9,550 lots. Spot prices of various types of iron ore increased to varying degrees. Some basis and spread values also changed [5]. - **Macro and Industry News**: In July, the manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in manufacturing prosperity [5]. - **Trend Intensity**: - 1, indicating a relatively bearish outlook [5]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Fundamentals**: For RB2510, the closing price was 3,203 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton or - 1.23%. For HC2510, the closing price was 3,401 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton or - 0.58%. Spot prices in different regions changed slightly, and basis and spread values also had corresponding changes [8][9]. - **Macro and Industry News**: According to weekly data from Steel Union on July 31, rebar production decreased by 0.9 tons, hot - rolled coil production increased by 5.3 tons, and the total production of five major varieties increased by 0.65 tons. Total inventories of rebar and hot - rolled coil increased, and apparent demand decreased [10]. - **Trend Intensity**: Both rebar and hot - rolled coil have a trend intensity of 0, indicating a neutral outlook [11]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Fundamentals**: Futures prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese changed, and spot prices of relevant products decreased. The prices of raw materials such as manganese ore and semi - coke also changed. The basis and spread values of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese also had corresponding adjustments [13]. - **Macro and Industry News**: In June 2025, South Africa's manganese ore exports were 229.76 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.4% and a year - on - year decrease of 6.8%. From January to June, the total manganese ore exports were 13.19 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.3% [14]. - **Trend Intensity**: Both ferrosilicon and silicomanganese have a trend intensity of 0, indicating a neutral outlook [15]. Coke and Coking Coal - **Fundamentals**: Futures prices of coke and coking coal decreased. Spot prices of different types of coking coal and coke changed, and basis and spread values also had corresponding fluctuations [18]. - **Macro and Industry News**: No new relevant news is provided in the content. - **Trend Intensity**: Both coke and coking coal have a trend intensity of 0, indicating a neutral outlook [20]. Thermal Coal - **Fundamentals**: The previous day's trading of thermal coal ZC2508 had no transactions. The opening price was 931.6 yuan/ton, the highest was 931.6 yuan/ton, the lowest was 840 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 840 yuan/ton, a decrease of 51.4 yuan/ton compared with the previous settlement price. Southern port and domestic origin prices of thermal coal are provided, and the long and short positions of the top 20 members on August 1 did not change [23][24]. - **Macro and Industry News**: No new relevant news is provided in the content. - **Trend Intensity**: Thermal coal has a trend intensity of 0, indicating a neutral outlook [25]. Logs - **Fundamentals**: The closing prices, trading volumes, and positions of different log futures contracts changed, and there were also changes in the spot - futures spreads and inter - contract spreads. Spot prices of various types of logs remained stable [27]. - **Macro and Industry News**: In July, the manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in manufacturing prosperity [29]. - **Trend Intensity**: - 1, indicating a relatively bearish outlook [29].

Economic Overview - In July, the manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) dropped to 49.3%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, influenced by seasonal production slowdowns and extreme weather conditions [1] - The non-manufacturing business activity index and the comprehensive PMI output index were 50.1% and 50.2%, respectively, both down by 0.4 and 0.5 percentage points, yet remaining above the critical point [1] - Despite short-term fluctuations due to extreme weather, production activities maintained expansion, indicating a solid foundation for economic recovery [3] Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing new orders index fell to 49.4%, down 0.8 percentage points from last month, while the production index was at 50.5%, still in the expansion zone for three consecutive months [1] - The equipment manufacturing PMI and high-tech manufacturing PMI were 50.3% and 50.6%, respectively, both above the critical point, indicating ongoing expansion in high-end equipment manufacturing [1] - The consumer goods industry PMI was 49.5%, down 0.9 percentage points, while the high-energy-consuming industries PMI improved slightly to 48%, up 0.2 percentage points [1] Price Trends - The main raw materials purchasing price index rose to 51.5%, and the factory price index was at 48.3%, increasing by 3.1 and 2.1 percentage points, respectively, indicating an overall improvement in manufacturing market prices [2] - The purchasing price index for major raw materials in sectors like petroleum and coal processing, as well as black metal smelting, showed significant recovery [2] Business Activity by Company Size - In July, the PMI for large enterprises was 50.3%, down 0.9 percentage points, with production and new orders indices at 52.1% and 50.7%, respectively, indicating sustained good operational conditions [2] - The PMI for medium-sized enterprises increased to 49.5%, up 0.9 percentage points, showing continued improvement in business sentiment [2] - The PMI for small enterprises was 46.4%, down 0.9 percentage points, reflecting weaker business conditions [2] Non-Manufacturing Sector - The non-manufacturing business activity index was 50.1%, down 0.4 percentage points, with construction activity slowing due to adverse weather conditions [4] - The business activity index for the service sector was 50%, slightly down by 0.1 percentage points, while sectors related to travel and consumption showed strong performance with indices above 60% [4] - Non-manufacturing enterprises maintained stable optimism, with a business activity expectation index of 55.8%, up 0.2 percentage points, indicating positive outlooks for the second half of the year [4]

Core Viewpoint - In July, the manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) decreased to 49.3%, indicating a decline in manufacturing activity compared to the previous month [1] Summary by Category Overall PMI - The manufacturing PMI for July is 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, reflecting a downturn in manufacturing sentiment [1] By Enterprise Size - Large enterprises' PMI stands at 50.3%, a decrease of 0.9 percentage points from last month, remaining above the critical point [1] - Medium enterprises' PMI is at 49.5%, an increase of 0.9 percentage points from last month, but still below the critical point [1] - Small enterprises' PMI is at 46.4%, a decrease of 0.9 percentage points from last month, remaining below the critical point [1] Component Indices - Among the five component indices of the manufacturing PMI, the production index and supplier delivery time index are above the critical point, while the new orders index, raw material inventory index, and employment index are below the critical point [1] - The production index is at 50.5%, down 0.5 percentage points from last month, indicating continued expansion in manufacturing production [1] - The new orders index is at 49.4%, down 0.8 percentage points from last month, suggesting a slowdown in market demand for manufacturing [1] - The raw material inventory index is at 47.7%, down 0.3 percentage points from last month, indicating a continued decrease in major raw material inventories in manufacturing [1] - The employment index is at 48.0%, up 0.1 percentage points from last month, indicating a slight recovery in employment conditions within manufacturing [1] - The supplier delivery time index is at 50.3%, up 0.1 percentage points from last month, indicating that the delivery times from raw material suppliers continue to accelerate [1]

Group 1 - The Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for the manufacturing sector in July is reported at 49.3%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month [1] - The production index stands at 50.5%, indicating a slight increase of 0.5 percentage points [1] - The main raw materials purchasing price index is at 51.5%, which reflects an increase of 3.1 percentage points [1] - The production and business activity expectation index is recorded at 52.6%, showing an increase of 0.6 percentage points [1]

Group 1 - In July, the manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was 49.3%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points month-on-month, indicating a slight contraction in manufacturing activity [1] - The non-manufacturing business activity index and the composite PMI output index were 50.1% and 50.2%, respectively, both showing a month-on-month decline of 0.4 and 0.5 percentage points, but remaining above the critical point, suggesting overall economic expansion [1] - The production index and new orders index were 50.5% and 49.4%, respectively, with declines of 0.5 and 0.8 percentage points, indicating continued expansion in manufacturing production but a slowdown in market demand [1][2] Group 2 - Extreme weather conditions in July, including heatwaves and floods, hindered outdoor construction and daily life, impacting market demand [2] - The main raw materials purchasing price index rose to 51.5%, and the factory price index was 48.3%, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 3.1 and 2.1 percentage points, respectively, indicating an improvement in overall market price levels [2] - The equipment manufacturing PMI and high-tech manufacturing PMI were 50.3% and 50.6%, respectively, both above the critical point, while the consumer goods industry PMI was 49.5%, showing a month-on-month decline of 0.9 percentage points [2] Group 3 - The production and business activity expectation index was 52.6%, an increase of 0.6 percentage points month-on-month, indicating enhanced confidence among manufacturing enterprises regarding market development [3] - The service industry business activity index was 50.0%, slightly down by 0.1 percentage points, but still within the expansion range, indicating overall stability [3] - The summer holiday effect positively impacted sectors related to consumer travel and spending, with indices for railway transport, air transport, postal services, and cultural and sports entertainment exceeding 60.0%, indicating rapid growth in business volume [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - On July 31, 2025, the stock index dropped with heavy trading volume, and the decline of the large - cap stock index was greater. The main reasons for the market decline were the hawkish remarks of Powell at the Fed's July meeting, which led to a sharp rise in the US dollar index and US Treasury yields, increasing external pressure, and the release of the July manufacturing PMI by the National Bureau of Statistics, which was lower than the previous month and lower than expected. Under the double negative impacts at home and abroad, the stock index declined overall. From the perspective of futures indicators, the volume - weighted average basis of all contracts except IH decreased slightly. The overall sentiment turned pessimistic, and the correction was expected to continue. If the index continued to fall, it was recommended that long - position holders take profit and exit [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - The stock index declined collectively on this day. Taking the CSI 300 index as an example, it closed down 1.82%. In terms of capital, the trading volume of the two markets increased by 91.756 billion yuan. In the futures market, IM dropped with heavy trading volume, while the other varieties dropped with shrinking volume [4]. Important Information - The Fed kept the federal funds rate target range unchanged at 4.25% - 4.5% for the fifth consecutive time, in line with expectations. Fed Chairman Powell said it was too early to say whether the Fed would cut the federal funds rate in September as the financial market expected. He also mentioned that the current interest rate level was appropriate given the uncertainties in tariffs and inflation, and it was still too early to judge the impact of tariffs on inflation. - The manufacturing PMI in July was 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month [5]. Strategy Recommendation - If the decline continued, long - position holders could take profit and exit [5]. Futures Market Observation | | IF | IH | IC | IM | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Main contract intraday change (%) | -1.77 | -1.44 | -1.38 | -0.88 | | Trading volume (10,000 lots) | 15.6196 | 7.5925 | 11.9559 | 26.7774 | | Trading volume month - on - month (10,000 lots) | 1.8165 | 0.4976 | 1.4305 | 3.6495 | | Open interest (10,000 lots) | 27.0987 | 9.9966 | 22.7163 | 34.8264 | | Open interest month - on - month (10,000 lots) | -0.3716 | -0.3315 | -0.276 | 0.1767 | [5] Spot Market Observation | Name | Value | | --- | --- | | Shanghai Composite Index change (%) | -1.18 | | Shenzhen Component Index change (%) | -1.73 | | Ratio of rising to falling stocks | 0.25 | | Trading volume of the two markets (100 million yuan) | 19360.35 | | Trading volume month - on - month (100 million yuan) | 917.56 | [6]

Core Viewpoint - The manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) in China for July 2025 is reported at 49.3%, indicating a decline of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, reflecting a downturn in manufacturing activity [1][4]. Manufacturing PMI Overview - The manufacturing PMI has decreased to 49.3%, with production index at 50.5% and new orders index at 49.4%, both showing declines from the previous month [1][4]. - The raw materials inventory index is at 47.7%, indicating a continued reduction in major raw material stocks, while the employment index has slightly increased to 48% [4][5]. - The supplier delivery time index is at 50.3%, suggesting that the delivery times for raw materials are improving [4]. Sector Performance - Key sectors such as railway, shipbuilding, aerospace, and computer communication electronics are showing active production and new orders, while sectors like chemical raw materials and non-metallic mineral products are underperforming [5][6]. - The equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing sectors have PMIs of 50.3% and 50.6%, respectively, remaining above the critical point, indicating ongoing expansion [6][7]. Economic Outlook - There is potential for demand recovery, with expectations that economic stabilization policies may be implemented to boost PMI [5][6]. - The price index for major raw materials has risen, with the purchasing price index at 51.5%, marking the first increase above the critical point since March [6][7]. Inventory and Business Confidence - The finished goods inventory index has decreased to 47.4%, reflecting cautious inventory adjustments by enterprises [7]. - Business confidence is improving, with the production and business activity expectation index rising to 52.6%, indicating a more optimistic outlook among manufacturers [7].