Report Industry Investment Ratings - Aluminum: Neutral [7] - Alumina: Cautiously Bearish [7] - Aluminum Alloy: Neutral [7] Core Viewpoints - The smelting profit of electrolytic aluminum has expanded to 4,000 yuan/ton during the off - season. In the long run, high industry profits are not a factor limiting the rise of aluminum prices under the restricted supply. In the short term, the further rise of aluminum prices requires the resonance of a good macro - environment and strong micro - consumption. Be vigilant against price drops due to inventory accumulation in the short term and price increases driven by stronger - than - expected consumption in the long term [3]. - For alumina, the supply pressure at home and abroad remains unchanged in the long run. The current warehouse receipt inventory is at a low level, and the delivery risk continues [5]. - Aluminum alloy is in the off - season. The futures price fluctuates with the aluminum price. The supply of scrap and raw aluminum is still tight, and the cost supports the price. Pay attention to cross - variety arbitrage opportunities for the 11 - contract [6]. Summary by Directory Aluminum - **Spot Price**: On July 8, 2025, the Yangtze River A00 aluminum price was 20,600 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton from the previous trading day; the Central Plains A00 aluminum price was 20,480 yuan/ton; the Foshan A00 aluminum price was 20,580 yuan/ton [1]. - **Futures Price**: On July 8, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai aluminum opened at 20,460 yuan/ton, closed at 20,525 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan/ton or 0.12% from the previous trading day [1]. - **Inventory**: As of July 7, 2025, the domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots was 478,000 tons. As of July 8, 2025, the LME aluminum inventory was 384,350 tons, up 13,200 tons from the previous trading day [1]. Alumina - **Spot Price**: On July 8, 2025, the SMM alumina price in Shanxi was 3,100 yuan/ton, in Shandong was 3,090 yuan/ton, in Guangxi was 3,205 yuan/ton, and the FOB price of Australian alumina was 366 US dollars/ton [2]. - **Futures Price**: On July 8, 2025, the main contract of alumina opened at 3,039 yuan/ton, closed at 3,110 yuan/ton, up 84 yuan/ton or 2.78% from the previous trading day [2]. - **Transaction and Inventory**: The trading volume was 439,969 lots, an increase of 98,116 lots from the previous trading day, and the position was 267,754 lots, an increase of 15,036 lots from the previous trading day. The alumina warehouse receipt was 18,000 tons, and the 07 - contract position was 27,000 tons [2][5]. Aluminum Alloy - **Price**: On July 8, 2025, the procurement price of Baotai civil raw aluminum was 15,200 yuan/ton, and the procurement price of mechanical raw aluminum was 15,300 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton from the previous day. The Baotai quotation of ADC12 was 19,500 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [2]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory of aluminum alloy was 28,900 tons, a weekly increase of 2,900 tons; the in - factory inventory was 78,800 tons, a weekly decrease of 4,000 tons; the total inventory was 107,700 tons, a weekly decrease of 1,100 tons [2]. Strategies - **Single - side Strategy**: Aluminum: Neutral; Alumina: Cautiously Bearish; Aluminum Alloy: Neutral [7]. - **Arbitrage Strategy**: Long - short spread arbitrage for Shanghai aluminum, long AD11 and short AL11 [7].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Aluminum: Neutral [8] - Alumina: Cautiously Bearish [8] - Aluminum Alloy: Neutral [8] Core Views - The supply of domestic electrolytic aluminum remains stable, and the Middle East crisis has not disturbed production. Consumption shows marginal weakness, and social inventory has slightly increased, but the absolute inventory is at a historical low. If inventory does not accumulate during the off - season, delivery risks need long - term attention. Alumina is in a downward channel, and the smelting profit of electrolytic aluminum has expanded, but it's difficult to further expand the profit without unexpected fundamental benefits [4]. - For alumina, the spot market has transactions, costs are stable, and the production and inventory are rising significantly with existing smelting profits [5][6]. - Aluminum alloy is in the consumption off - season, the price is supported by the cost, and there are cross - variety arbitrage opportunities in the 11 - contract [7]. Key Points by Content Aluminum Spot and Futures - On June 23, 2025, the Yangtze River A00 aluminum price was 20,650 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The spot premium of Yangtze River A00 aluminum decreased by 30 yuan/ton to 150 yuan/ton. The Central Plains A00 aluminum price was 20,470 yuan/ton, and its spot premium decreased by 40 yuan/ton to - 20 yuan/ton. The Foshan A00 aluminum price was 20,530 yuan/ton, and its spot premium decreased by 5 yuan/ton to 45 yuan/ton [2]. - On June 23, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai aluminum opened at 20,425 yuan/ton, closed at 20,365 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton or - 0.24% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 181,056 lots, an increase of 87,843 lots, and the position was 253,597 lots, an increase of 89,586 lots [2]. Aluminum Inventory - As of June 23, 2025, the domestic electrolytic aluminum ingot social inventory was 464,000 tons, and the LME aluminum inventory was 340,975 tons, a decrease of 1,875 tons from the previous trading day [2]. Alumina Spot and Futures - On June 23, 2025, the SMM alumina price in Shanxi was 3,130 yuan/ton, in Shandong was 3,140 yuan/ton, in Guangxi was 3,205 yuan/ton, and the Australian alumina FOB price was 370 US dollars/ton [3]. - On June 23, 2025, the main contract of alumina opened at 2,886 yuan/ton, closed at 2,906 yuan/ton, up 11 yuan/ton or 0.38% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 335,270 lots, an increase of 11,654 lots, and the position was 286,561 lots, a decrease of 4,189 lots [3]. Aluminum Alloy Price and Inventory - On June 23, 2025, the Baotai civil primary aluminum purchase price was 15,300 yuan/ton, and the mechanical primary aluminum purchase price was 15,400 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The Baotai quotation of ADC12 was 19,500 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, and the ADC12 - A00 spread in East China was - 1,050 yuan/ton [3]. - The aluminum alloy social inventory was 23,800 tons, a weekly increase of 1,500 tons. The in - plant inventory was 82,900 tons, a weekly decrease of 2,100 tons. The total inventory was 106,700 tons, a weekly decrease of 600 tons [3]. Market Analysis - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The supply is stable, the consumption is marginally weakening, the alumina price is falling, and the smelting profit is expanding, but it's difficult to further expand without unexpected benefits [4]. - **Alumina**: The spot market has transactions, the cost is stable, the bauxite freight has decreased, the alumina price has fallen, and the production and inventory are rising [5][6]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: It's in the off - season, the price is supported by the cost, and there are cross - variety arbitrage opportunities in the 11 - contract [7]. Strategy - **Alumina**: The spot price is loose, the long - term surplus pattern remains, and the 09 contract has a significant discount to the spot. Be vigilant against basis risk if the spot price falls slowly [8]. - **Arbitrage**: Long - short spread arbitrage in Shanghai aluminum and long AD11 short AL11 [8].