新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-07-09 氧化铝的仓单风险仍在继续 重要数据 铝现货方面：SMM数据，昨日长江A00铝价录得20600元/吨，较上一交易日下跌40元/吨，长江A00铝现货升贴 水较上一交易日下跌20元/吨至-60元/吨；中原A00铝价录得20480元/吨，中原A00铝现货升贴水较上一交易日下 跌10元/吨至-170元/吨；佛山A00铝价录20580元/吨，佛山A00铝现货升贴水较上一交易日上涨5元/吨至-70元/ 吨。 铝期货方面：2025-07-08日沪铝主力合约开于20460元/吨，收于20525元/吨，较上一交易日收盘价上涨25元/ 吨，涨幅0.12%，最高价达20570元/吨，最低价达到20430元/吨。全天交易日成交109583手，较上一交易日减 少39087手，全天交易日持仓254726手，较上一交易日减少598手。 库存方面，截止2025-07-07，SMM统计国内电解铝锭社会库存47.8万吨。截止2025-07-08，LME铝库存384350 吨，较前一交易日增加13200吨。 氧化铝现货价格：2025-07-08 SMM氧化铝山西价格录得3100元/吨，山东价格录得30 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Aluminum: Neutral [8] - Alumina: Cautiously Bearish [8] - Aluminum Alloy: Neutral [8] Core Views - The supply of domestic electrolytic aluminum remains stable, and the Middle East crisis has not disturbed production. Consumption shows marginal weakness, and social inventory has slightly increased, but the absolute inventory is at a historical low. If inventory does not accumulate during the off - season, delivery risks need long - term attention. Alumina is in a downward channel, and the smelting profit of electrolytic aluminum has expanded, but it's difficult to further expand the profit without unexpected fundamental benefits [4]. - For alumina, the spot market has transactions, costs are stable, and the production and inventory are rising significantly with existing smelting profits [5][6]. - Aluminum alloy is in the consumption off - season, the price is supported by the cost, and there are cross - variety arbitrage opportunities in the 11 - contract [7]. Key Points by Content Aluminum Spot and Futures - On June 23, 2025, the Yangtze River A00 aluminum price was 20,650 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The spot premium of Yangtze River A00 aluminum decreased by 30 yuan/ton to 150 yuan/ton. The Central Plains A00 aluminum price was 20,470 yuan/ton, and its spot premium decreased by 40 yuan/ton to - 20 yuan/ton. The Foshan A00 aluminum price was 20,530 yuan/ton, and its spot premium decreased by 5 yuan/ton to 45 yuan/ton [2]. - On June 23, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai aluminum opened at 20,425 yuan/ton, closed at 20,365 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton or - 0.24% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 181,056 lots, an increase of 87,843 lots, and the position was 253,597 lots, an increase of 89,586 lots [2]. Aluminum Inventory - As of June 23, 2025, the domestic electrolytic aluminum ingot social inventory was 464,000 tons, and the LME aluminum inventory was 340,975 tons, a decrease of 1,875 tons from the previous trading day [2]. Alumina Spot and Futures - On June 23, 2025, the SMM alumina price in Shanxi was 3,130 yuan/ton, in Shandong was 3,140 yuan/ton, in Guangxi was 3,205 yuan/ton, and the Australian alumina FOB price was 370 US dollars/ton [3]. - On June 23, 2025, the main contract of alumina opened at 2,886 yuan/ton, closed at 2,906 yuan/ton, up 11 yuan/ton or 0.38% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 335,270 lots, an increase of 11,654 lots, and the position was 286,561 lots, a decrease of 4,189 lots [3]. Aluminum Alloy Price and Inventory - On June 23, 2025, the Baotai civil primary aluminum purchase price was 15,300 yuan/ton, and the mechanical primary aluminum purchase price was 15,400 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The Baotai quotation of ADC12 was 19,500 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, and the ADC12 - A00 spread in East China was - 1,050 yuan/ton [3]. - The aluminum alloy social inventory was 23,800 tons, a weekly increase of 1,500 tons. The in - plant inventory was 82,900 tons, a weekly decrease of 2,100 tons. The total inventory was 106,700 tons, a weekly decrease of 600 tons [3]. Market Analysis - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The supply is stable, the consumption is marginally weakening, the alumina price is falling, and the smelting profit is expanding, but it's difficult to further expand without unexpected benefits [4]. - **Alumina**: The spot market has transactions, the cost is stable, the bauxite freight has decreased, the alumina price has fallen, and the production and inventory are rising [5][6]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: It's in the off - season, the price is supported by the cost, and there are cross - variety arbitrage opportunities in the 11 - contract [7]. Strategy - **Alumina**: The spot price is loose, the long - term surplus pattern remains, and the 09 contract has a significant discount to the spot. Be vigilant against basis risk if the spot price falls slowly [8]. - **Arbitrage**: Long - short spread arbitrage in Shanghai aluminum and long AD11 short AL11 [8].