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京东集团-SW(09618):25Q2财报点评:电商收入及利润超预期,关注外卖后续投入与生态协同
CMS· 2025-08-15 07:04
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for JD Group [4][6] Core Views - JD Group's Q2 2025 performance exceeded expectations with revenue of 356.66 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 22.4%, driven by government subsidies and user growth [1][6] - The retail segment generated revenue of 310.075 billion yuan, up 20.6% year-on-year, with retail operating profit reaching 13.94 billion yuan, a 37.9% increase [1][6] - Non-GAAP net profit for the quarter was 7.394 billion yuan, down 48.9% year-on-year, but better than consensus expectations [1][6] - The report highlights the robust growth of the takeaway business and its potential synergy with the retail segment, emphasizing the need to monitor future investments in this area [1][6] Financial Data and Valuation - Projected revenue for JD Group is expected to grow from 1,084.662 million yuan in 2023 to 1,383.240 million yuan in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 3% [3][7] - Non-GAAP net profit is projected to fluctuate, with estimates of 27.603 billion yuan in 2025, 49.083 billion yuan in 2026, and 63.430 billion yuan in 2027 [3][7] - The report provides a target valuation range of 146-182 HKD per share based on a 2026 Non-GAAP net profit multiple of 8-10 times [4][6] Stock Performance - JD Group's stock has shown a 1-month absolute performance of 9.1%, a 6-month performance of 17.6%, and a 12-month performance of 20.0% [5]