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以史为鉴,牛市如何“逃顶”?
Hua Er Jie Jian Wen· 2026-01-20 09:18
Core Viewpoint - Current market sentiment is high, but investors may not be at the "exit moment" in this bull market, as there is still room before reaching the peak [1] Valuation Signals - The asset securitization ratio (total market value/GDP) is currently at 82%, indicating that asset prices still have room to rise compared to the scale of the real economy, as historical peaks were 110% in 2007 and 107% in 2015 [5] - The equity risk premium (ERP) has exceeded 1 standard deviation but has not yet reached the extreme level of 2 standard deviations, which typically indicates high market risk [8] - Main industry valuations are currently reasonable, without extreme premiums that characterize past bull market peaks [10] Trading Indicators - The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 73 and the sentiment indicator is at 81, indicating an overbought and overheated market; however, the MACD remains in a "golden cross" state, suggesting that the upward trend is still intact [14] - Historical analysis shows that significant market tops have been confirmed by a combination of "RSI overbought + overheated sentiment" and a subsequent "MACD death cross," which has not yet occurred [14] - Financing balance is a valuable reference; when it approaches 2.5% of the circulating market value or when the financing buy amount reaches about 11% of the trading volume, it likely corresponds to a market peak [18]
VIP聪明钱新增假突破指标,6大指标解决突破、反转、震荡、假突破、趋势等多个交易难题,最后2天9折解锁>>
news flash· 2025-04-29 01:04
Group 1 - The article promotes a new indicator for identifying false breakouts, aimed at addressing various trading challenges such as breakouts, reversals, consolidations, and false breakouts [1] - A promotional offer is available for the last two days, providing a 10% discount for unlocking the false breakout indicator [1] - The indicator is part of a suite of six indicators designed to enhance trading strategies [1]
VIP聪明钱新增假突破指标,立享9折加入,6大指标解决突破、反转、震荡、假突破、趋势等多个交易难题,立即解锁>>
news flash· 2025-04-23 01:04
Core Insights - The article introduces a new indicator for detecting false breakouts, aimed at enhancing trading strategies for investors [1] Group 1 - The new indicator is part of VIP's "smart money" offerings, which includes a 10% discount for new members [1] - The indicator addresses multiple trading challenges, including breakouts, reversals, consolidations, false breakouts, and trends [1]